The_MonkeyKing

I wonder what it would take for UKR to say they have enough ammo.

given: lost: Seems M777 is being lost in quite the numbers. Actually, it is the most destroyed UKR towed artillery piece. Nearly 4x more losses than the second place holder. interesting indeed. I guess we can only speculate on why this is so. Might be the most used one so the most losses, towed is vulnerable, lazy repositioning, high priority target...

Yeah, just leaves me wondering what kind of loss ratio Ukraine is managing to pull off here. Even 1:3 is still horrible casualty amounts.

Here is the first official overtime view of RUS personal casualties. (that I have seen)

good info on Ground Launch Small Diameter Bomb

Yes, I have seen lots of smoke generators but zero "pop smoke" smoke launchers. There was one about a month ago but I was not 100% at that time. Many analysts have also pointed this out

The first documented use of tank smoke launcher? Now that I think about it these are even more critical for soviet origin tanks that have to make a 180-turn to bug out.

That was some video! Gives a uniquely detailed overview of a successful platoon assault on a Russian squad's position. Never seen anything quite like this one in combat footage history.

https://corporalfrisk.com/2023/02/11/leopard-1a5-see-first-shoot-first-and-then-what/ The Leo1A5 article we have been waiting for! Some top picking here: "Another key aspect here is that when discussing tank guns, ammunition is often forgotten. There are huge differences between the capabilities of individual tank rounds also when fired from the same gun." "For the Leopard 1 in particular, the best widely used round for the Leopard 1A5 is the DM63, a German license-produced version of the Israeli M426. You might/probably/perhaps/will bag a T-72B with it, but I wouldn’t want to be the one to try." "Expert: 105mm DM63 is roughly the same capability as 120mm DM33, which was the main ammo for Leopard 2A4 at that time. So adequate to T-72/T-80's. Let's face it, Kontakt-5 ERA effect on APFSDS-T is controversial." "Of course, the Israeli connection might be an issue. Or then not. There are unconfirmed (and I stress that word) reports the Slovenian delivery of the M-55S included the DM63 (it seems likely Israel had to sign off on the M-55S in either case considering Elbit’s role in the upgrade, giving some credibility to the rumors)." "If you could get the Israelis onboard, you might also be able to low-key buy an even nicer piece of kit – Elbit’s M428 Sword. In either case, the M-55S has brought the L7 to the Ukrainian battlefield already, meaning that at least on a smaller scale someone has been studying the options for supplying the gun with ammunition." "Ukraine has had to settle for Cold War-relics as ammunition due to lack of modern rounds. As such, a modern 105 mm round you have has better performance than a modern 125 mm round you don’t." "However, everything is not terrible with the Leopard 1. Key among the nice features are the sensors. The Leopard 1A5 is an upgrade to the baseline Leopard 1 based around the EMES-15 sights and fire control system developed for the Leopard 2 (the 1A5-version being designated the EMES-18) which are top-notch compared to almost every tank rolling around in Ukraine at the moment. " "ex-German 1A5 and ex-Danish 1A5DK which are even further upgraded (described as “except for the gun, much better than the [Leopard 2]A4“)." "In modern tank combat, seeing the enemy first and hitting with the first round are a big plus (you will still have to get through the enemy armor, but it’s a start), so the value of these features shouldn’t be underestimated." "Sure, you probably would prefer to have the armor and 120 mm gun, but better mobility is at least something." "most importantly, the 1A5 are available in nice numbers."

Yesterday's ratio was 34 : 5 RUS vs. UKR These two Twitter threads have this daily loss data going back to the start of the war.

yeah, yesterday's photo confirmed loss data ratio was 69:4

This is a Ukraine thread

starting to see the effect of this week's offensives in the Oryx data as well: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

Current RUS Donbass offensives also starting to be done with "class-A" units with bad results Seems the RUS "class-A" quality has reduced with losses and new recruits Current offensives are very different from the past months. Mechanised assaults. These operations seems to be the start of this awaited RUS offensive This "awaited RUS offensive" is going to look very underwhelming. Also the early signs point to this. One likely goal for these attacks is Izium. The need it to advance to Dombas deeper than Bakhmut. Unlikely to succeed Very sceptical of new fronts opening. Attack from belarus would take many times the current forces and months of buildup like we saw a year ago UKR is clearly preserving its highest quality forces. Line is now been held by territorials, legion and national guard Very hard to tell where the UKR forces are located. Brigades often send single battalion tactical groups all over the place. RUS also seems to have been preserving its highest quality forces UKR seems to have a plan of setting up new 3 corp level formations. Western armored equipment is part of this plan. RUS minimal wargoal is Dombas but it is also the hardest nut to crack. Unlikely to succeed. Best case RUS can hope for is to keep the current lines(take some, lose some) somewhat and exhaust both sides. The current tank discussions going to wrong direction. This new equipment is not going to be in time for the next offensives but is going to give critical future security for UKR. They can afford to take losses now. Even the most perfect major offensive is going to cause losses of armored vehicles in the hundreds. Mike doesn't believe in the NATO equipment wunderwaffe. What UKR need is equipment to equip their new brigades, not so critical is it modernized T-72 or leopard 2A4. Especially the tank debate is over valued. Biggest need is for IFV and APC. Also the greatest technological leap is in western IFV not MBTs. UKR needs artillery ammo, air defense, precision fires, long range precision fires and armored vehicles. In that sort of priority. RUS was very unlucky with the mild winter. Energy war and the UKR strike campaign RUS seems to have run out of missile stockpiles and is now firing at the rate of production. This means maybe one wave per month. Western jets are just a matter of time. No matter what UKR is going have to switch to western airframes. At the end discussion about cluster ammo, escalation and nuclear escalation Mike Kofman and Ryan Evans cover a lot of ground in this episode about the war in Ukraine: Russian goals in the Donbass, the coming Russian counter-offensive, the state of Russian and Ukrainian forces, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, cluster and sensor-fuzed munitions, fourth-generation fighter aircraft, a warm winter, nuclear risk, and more. If you are interested in what's happening in and around Ukraine, this is another must-listen episode.

lol, they just keep coming. Add +100 to that number and yes, the Danish and Netherland Leo1 is just in addition to their Leo2

and even more Leo1 from Germany (adding to the original 88 number so 187 in total from Germany): Rheinmetall will transfer 88 vehicles, and another 99 will come from FFG Add to this 20 from Denmark and 40ish from Belgium company total gets close to 250. There are even more available in the western countries. in CMSF in very scientific experiments Leo1A5 vs T90 seem to be on bar with each other. Both one-shot each others most of the time. T-90 has better survivability gets less shots off because worse spotting. Balances out. Also even more M113 incoming from the Spain and UK.

Depending on who you ask absolutely majority of Russian current recognized territories are colonized. As I said this is a blind spot to us westerners who have mostly only colonized overseas and now are blind to other types of colonization.

For example any colonial war Britain or France has lost sense becoming a nuclear power. All the wars modern Russia has been fighting have been colonial wars. Russia just a land power so it doesn't colonize overseas. This is what the west is very blind towards.

There is very little that can be done to accommodate the psychology of Putin and his inner circle. That is a pandora's box that I would prefer to keep closed. Also very bad precedent case to set. Examples and counterexamples are so easy to make, one can justify anything by appealing to Putin's personal irrational responses. One says do nothing not to anger him and another one says to show dominance and go all-in, the third says something about creating personal relationship. West is afraid of the unknown and changing the status quo that has been so very beneficial to them. Leading european states were very afraid and hesitant against dividing Yugoslavia, and also Soviet union. He also didn't mention one of my favorite overlooked escalation risks, what would happen if UKR starts to lose the conventional war? The risk of direct military intervention(s) rises dramatically. All sorts of very hasty, unilateral and risky moves would be made by the western countries.

very good "episode": and today I learned pallet dropped cruise missiles are a thing: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/special-ops-c-130-tests-pallet-dropped-cruise-missiles-in-the-arctic

I have nothing productive to add but I love this announcement. I would prefer to see some more soviet A-category actions with the soviets. Last time we got to see the overmatched B-cat equipment in little too much detail with the soviet campaign.

Why we have balloon news in this thread? This is Ukraine war thread

How is this so hard for the europeans? https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/waffenhilfe-fuer-die-ukraine-kanzler-olaf-scholz-redet-den-panzer-partnern-ins-gewissen-a-9a1da89b-0b76-4c2d-a93a-d7116dca071f Here is a free to read paper in finnish (translate works): https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000009371956.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=toimitus-dlvr THE EXPORT OF LEOPARD 2 battle tanks to Ukraine is in trouble, says the German newspaper Der Spiegel . According to the magazine, only very few countries have committed to give their tanks to Ukraine. With these prospects, Ukraine will not receive enough Leopard 2 tanks to arm two Ukrainian tank battalions. The strength of one battalion is 31 tanks. According to Der Spiegel, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius organized a video conference last week, where no EU country committed to concrete promises regarding the number of 2A6 tanks. Even Holland, which promised carriages in public, did not promise anything. The German Chancellor's Office still hopes that, with the cooperation of the countries, wagons for the needs of the two battalions will be gathered by the end of March. The lack of commitments has still caused German officials to hesitate. "The only Leopards that will really be ready with trained crews at the end of March are the Bundeswehr [German Armed Forces] tanks," one expert told Der Spiegel.

Good news is 150km range GLSDB bad news is in nine months

Seems like my Leo1 + M113 timeline is coming true. Thankfully these will be supplemented with Bradley/CV90/marder1 and Leo2/Chal2/Abrams.