The_MonkeyKing

@Huba need your POL insight! What is with the Leo2 stuff? is this related to last:

Confirmed ukr getting M2A2 Bradley and M109A6 Paladin. Going to be trained with this equipment on battalion scale. Maybe the Leo2 will also show up as armored element for these formations. Exact variant sources: https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1611447761966362624?s=20&t=uNG0t1RjLhdXzo-exQt-JA https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1611454946586812418?s=20&t=uNG0t1RjLhdXzo-exQt-JA

I wonder what type are the 25mm APFSDS-T ammo. Does US even have non-uranium options in any quantity?

Germans are getting fast.

I guess something was agreed last year in the backrooms of NATO that things are going to change if the war still exists in 2023. So much going on again...

Great update on the war: https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/a-disquieting-winter-at-war-in-ukraine/

It is a party day!

I don't think thye have walked back any of these types of specific promises? Yes, timetables have changed but not drastically. and Germans have catched up pretty darn well. Also, their information strategy has been terrible. I think in general they have been well meaning fools and have learned a lot and are still learning.

Marder-Scholz compilation:

Well, this leaving a pretty short list of stuff Ukraine has not gotten yet: western MBT, western airframes, large long range missiles. Awesome to see this happenening. White house source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/05/joint-press-statement-following-a-call-between-the-president-joe-biden-and-the-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-olaf-scholz/ Meanwhile Putin trying oneway ceasefire and getting some mad burns from Biden:

Oryx wants "tank" to mean MBT. It doesn't. some relevant words: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armoured_fighting_vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_battle_tank Leopard 2 is a tank, AFV and an MBT AMX-10 is a tank, AFV but not an MBT AMX-10 can be a light tank, cavarly tank, tank destroyer or a scout tank. Leopard 2 is an MBT

and more importantly average european politician cannot tell or explaint the diffence. I want to see Olaf Scholz trying to explaing in a press breafing why exatly this is diffent than sending leopards haha

It is broken. No one can deny AMX-10 is not a tank. It is not an MBT but it is a light/scout/cavalry/TD tank. And it is 100% western design. You can call it a armored fighting vehicle but you can also call MBT that.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/maximum-pressure-brought-down-the-soviet-union-and-other-lies-we-tell-ourselves/ This is a good article on how the western story of soviet unions collapse is mostly false. It was not ever determined and could have easily gone the other way. They also have a podcast series ongoing about the subject (paywall): https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28031/the-collapse-of-the-soviet-union-part-1/ I am thinking that the common meme thinking about "collapse" is mostly just that, a meme. Everything is always collapsing, China, USA, EU economy, Iran .... When we look back in history collapses are quite rare.

TIL: Ukraine Poised to Become First Operator of 150-Kilometer Precision Bomb: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/29/ukraine-first-operator-precision-bomb/ So the same idea as NASAMS meaning adapting the plentiful and hightech airlaunched munitions to groundlaunch. This time it is just precision guided bombs.

Haha, I was going to make the same post with the same text. Finally indeed

It is coming out of the members of The Finnish Defence Committee (Finnish govermental organisation). Not to go in detail here but it has the blessing of the Defence Committee and by extension also the blessing of the Finnish foreing policy leaders. It is a softer aproach like often countries use "less important" officials or govermental organisations to "feel the ground" with new ideas.

Finland driving Europe wide initiative to get Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Idea is if everyone gives even 5-10% of their leo2 to Ukraine it would add up to hundreds. With some swapping you could also narrow it to only 1-2 variants of leo2.

Downside seems to be that the terminal guidence requires laser designation. (drone for example)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-prankster-impersonating-macron-spoke-polands-duda-after-blast-2022-11-22/ The recording: https://rutube.ru/video/1c3c0277eb2efdb63bc444382a42e6a8/

Russian tent: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1593564758267019266?s=20&t=kEBOortGfMgiOsdxfdeYJw Close enough?:

Could be either. After the RUS opening up the Ukrainian machine gun gunner (that we saw in the vid) is going to open up and understandably going to keep firing for a while. Not taking the risk any of the guys laying down have change of mind or misunderstand the situation as UKR attack and start defending themselves. Also if grenades were thrown..

The most comprehensive analysis of the air war status from the start to this point. (second one was "Revisiting Russian Air Performance in Ukraine-the Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman" but it has paywall)

interesting little story: videos: https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yy62hy/ukrainians_were_taking_a_group_of_russians/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ytw4rp/what_1000_kia_a_day_looks_like_large_number_of/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=CombatFootage&utm_content=t1_iwsg7em