Chibot Mk IX

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

Interesting read. I'm not certain if these "tree lines" remind CM players of the bocage. 

A while ago, there was a discussion on a Chinese forum where people spoke pessimistically about Ukraine's offensive. One guy listed the difficulties of the terrain. He mentioned that fighting in these tree lines is akin to fighting in the bocage. A small yet determined defender could delay the attacking force for a significant amount of time. In Normandy, under the cover of bocage walls, the German forces maneuvered into the flank of the Allied forces, using panzerschreck and LMG to harass them. In Ukraine, the open fields between the tree lines are much larger than the bocage terrain (ranging from 1km x 1km to 1km x 2km). However, with modern ATGMs' range, the defender's firepower can easily reach the other side. The good news for Ukraine is that the Russian LMGs and HMGs cannot effectively engage at long distances. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainian force will not face fire from a diagonal direction. Nevertheless, this could be bad news for the overwatching Ukrainian soldiers too, as they would be unable to assist if their comrades get bogged down by fire from the other side of the treeline.
 
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This is a highly interesting claim; however, it lacks substantial evidence. While some of Ukraine's video clips record their AFV and infantry firing into the treeline, not many Russian videos depict how they fight on the ground. Some video clips give people the impression that Russians are reluctant to move outside their prepared fighting positions. Therefore, fighting like the Germans, who sent a small detachment to harass the Allied flank, doesn't align with the Russian way of fighting.
The comment above isn't meant to downplay the difficulty of fighting in treelines but rather to argue that it might not be as challenging as fighting in the bocage.
 

Interesting read. I'm not certain if these "tree lines" remind CM players of the bocage. 

A while ago, there was a discussion on a Chinese forum where people spoke pessimistically about Ukraine's offensive. One guy listed the difficulties of the terrain. He mentioned that fighting in these tree lines is akin to fighting in the bocage. A small yet determined defender could delay the attacking force for a significant amount of time. In Normandy, under the cover of bocage walls, the German forces maneuvered into the flank of the Allied forces, using panzerschreck and LMG to harass them. In Ukraine, the open fields between the tree lines are much larger than the bocage terrain (ranging from 1km x 1km to 1km x 2km). However, with modern ATGMs' range, the defender's firepower can easily reach the other side. The good news for Ukraine is that the Russian LMGs and HMGs cannot effectively engage at long distances. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainian force will not face fire from a diagonal direction. Nevertheless, this could be bad news for the overwatching Ukrainian soldiers too, as they would be unable to assist if their comrades get bogged down by fire from the other side of the treeline.
 
*******************************************************************************************
 
This is a highly interesting claim; however, it lacks substantial evidence. While some of Ukraine's video clips record their AFV and infantry firing into the treeline, not many Russian videos depict how they fight on the ground. Some video clips give people the impression that Russians are reluctant to move outside their prepared fighting positions. Therefore, fighting like the Germans, who sent a small detachment to harass the Allied flank, doesn't align with the Russian way of fighting.
The comment above isn't meant to downplay the difficulty of fighting in treelines but rather to argue that it might not be as challenging as fighting in the bocage.
 

Guess they got to widen the flanks first. The breach is too narrow to support a direct push into the village. 

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, while on a visit in France, told a story, how small group of 31 fighters maintained success in Robotyne, after weeks of unsuccessful assaults

...One Ukrainian unit had been conducting continuous assaults in this area of the front, and due to exhaustion and losses, at some point, this unit lost the ability to continue the offensive. And then "radical decisions" were made: the unit's leadership was changed.
New commander asked to assemble soldiers who were motivated and ready to perform combat missions. A combined group of 31 soldiers was created, a third of whom had no combat experience, but all of whom had the knowledge and will to win.
Thanks to the leadership of the commanders and sergeants, this group established "horizontal links" with neighbouring units and started working on the contact line. For 18 hours, they crawled literally on their stomachs through kilometres of minefields, where the Russians had placed six mines per square metre.
Finally, the unit reached a strip of trees dividing farmers' fields. Everyone in Ukraine knows this word - "posadka" ("tree-plant, tree-line"). It’s in these plantations, invisible on maps, that the greatest tragedies and heroism of the war take place. So, our unit drove the Russians out of there and held the position for two days until reinforcements arrived. Subsequently, this group walked another 10 kilometres with backpacks weighing 35-40 kilograms through minefields. They only had time to catch their breath briefly and immediately stormed the fortified Russian positions, drove the enemy out and held out until the main forces arrived.
In total, this unit conducted six assaults and two reconnaissance missions in 40 days. A group of 31 men did the work of an entire battalion, which should have consisted of about 400 men. The losses amounted to seven wounded, including only one seriously injured after stepping on a mine.
In fact, the work of this group made it possible for an entire brigade to attack Robotyne and liberate it after weeks of assaults.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/30/7417687/

The one weapon on the battlefield that never runs out of ammo.

Here is the most interesting map imo:

And threadreader: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695879651158052910.html

Interesting thread about defense fortifications around Novoprokopivka, Solodka Balka, Verbove and possible decisions how to breach them
 

Should have combined these, sorry. It really looks like the Ukrainians are pushing southeast from their current position around Robotyne, and hill 163. They may think there is a weaker spot there, or really want to widen their existing salient. It seems like they deep enough into the Russian lines to put pressure on the supplies and support units of the Russiansnhold the shoulder of their position.

Unit of 3rd assault brigade had a drone, Russians - no. Their "foot recon in force without relying on drone" finised predictably
 

Crazy.  Looks like the HEAT jet actually hit the side of the tank.

Autumn Approaches: Part 1 - Reports by The Lookout (substack.com)
A somewhat sobering analysis of the Ukrainian offensive. Worth a read even if you may not agree with it.

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 
It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

In CM I have seen several cases where the AFV bogged down then immobilized on the paved road.  An engine breakdown description should be more fit into this kind of situation but "bog down/immobilized" is what we have. 

Contrary to speculation in that thread that this is a bug it is in fact WAD. My source for that is BFC 🫠

Perhaps that plane was doing a CAP with no air to ground weapons when it got re-tasked at short notice? 
Certainly not very competent...

I think, rather to eliminate early warning assets, to increase effectiveness of strikes. Russians had a time to target and intercept almost all strike drones and S-200 missiles, entering to Crimea from NW and N. Maybe this is first phase of complex attack on Kerch bridge and important military infrastructure

Might have something to do with sea babies - https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-russia-disperses-ships-in-fear-of-ukrainian-strikes/
 

Looking forward to this
For a very long time I do feel CMFI is an excellent tool for modding Pacific theater and Korea war.
Brazilian can be converted into ROKA. 
When I first thought about this idea, I was thinking KPA and CPVA should be mod from Italian. But later I convince myself British should be a better choice. Both KPA and CPVA were heavily influenced by IJA, so their infantry tactic is focused on small fire teams maneuverer. The cannot be split Italian infantry squad will be a problem here.
 
BTW:
LLF has a CMBN Pacific mod 
 
 
 

Asian skins are in progress. If anyone knows of any that already exist, please holler out.

T-34/85 is substituted in as a shell over Sherman IIA. Ranks, portraits, silhoutte and branch are done for the UI.

And the giant white turret numbers...

 
 

The cult of brutal force, which can establish some "order and rightness" always was popular among Russians long time ago. That's why important to beat Russians on battlefield and force to sign capitulation (any peace agreement on terms of Ukraine will be capitulation for Russians). This nation like a thugs understands only the language of violent beating up and humilitation. All other they will assume as a weakness of the opponent.

Several videos of figting in Robotyne
This video of several days ago - two UKR Bradleys fight in central and southern part of Robotyne: 
Likely the same time or around - Bradley is coming for help to UKR squad, having wounded. M2 surrounding all around with smoke screen and shootong out the houses, where Russians can sit, also making smoke screen at houses, blocking LOS to Russians. At the end crew of Bradley likely spotted Russians, who tried to crawl out from the house - the gun of IFV leans down and shoots the ground near the bush and buildin. You sholdn't confuse themselves with "white tape" on the arm of one soldier - he is wounded and this is bandage
The tank from the second video, which several times has been appering in the cadre, later (or recently? but it so far was immobile) was hit by Lancet. The quality is not good - Russian milblogger Rybar claims this is M-55S, and by his opinion  these tanks, which recently used 47th brigade were returned to their composition from Kreminna due to heavy losses of Leopards. Our OSINTers claim Russians hit own T-90M, but I think this is not it. Russian units hadn't T-90M on this diretion (at least in recent days) and this tank faced to the south.  
Upd. But as far as on 7th of Aug 47th brigade issued a video that they hit Russian "T-72" in this place. DefMon now also recognized T-90M in this tank. I give up, interesting who could have T-90M... %) 
 

Stockpile of TM-62 AT-mines was hit with a grenade from the drone. Huge shockwave likely damaged Russian light armor in several meters from the mines dump.
 

For the sake of curiosity I took a look at that YouTube channel. It seems to be the same two video titles for the last 9 months.
"Ukraine is about to collapse"
"Russian Army destroys Ukrainian Army"
"Ukraine is collapsing now"
"Russian Army annihilates Ukrainan Forces"
etc.
Sounds like the German Wochenschau from the 1940s, just replace Russian Army with Victorious Wehrmacht.
Truly, seems to be another Western guy like Scott Ritter who sold himself, body and soul, to Russian media.
Really not worth to check out.

This will make more sense if we put the thinking of maneuver warfare aside and adopt to the Pacific war mindset. In pacific war the US and Japanese fight inch by inch on some uninhabitable islands, the objective is to put the other side’s main base and sea lane behind it into the bomber’s range. They fight on Guadalcanal to prevent the IJN’s torpedo bomber interdict the communication between Australia and Vanuatu. Fight on the New Guinea to isolate Rabaul. Fight on Saipan so that the B-29 can reach mainland Japan.
Russian on the Southern front might have the same mindset. One inch step back means UKR’s artillery group is one inch closer to the main supply artery.