Haiduk

Dejan Berich, Serbian sniper, about whom this film was captured by Ukrainain soldiers in 2014. Because he was a sniper, and had confirmed kills of Ukraiain soldiers, he had to stand trial and be convicted (and I wonder how our guys didn't shot him at all). But by some unknown reasons, Berich was given back to separs in exchange for UKR soldiers. Of course, he have incereased his count soon. During next years he was sligtly injured and turned back to Serbia. Serbian authorities didn't pursuit him. Several months ago Berich again appeared on Donbas, but unknown in what status. Since 2014 among pro-Russian leaders and influent commanders their attitude to Berich became ambigous. Some respect him, some consider he is a poseur and blame him in unfair stories about his participation in the war and slander on other field commanders. So, now in Donbas many influent people not very glad to see him.

This is discussed theme to this time. There is knowingly about several killed servicemen of Russian "Vympel" FSB special force detachment, as well as servicemen of 16th GRU spetsnaz brigade and 45th VDV spetsnaz regiment during all time of battles for airport, but there is a question how exactly they participated. Like independent Russian units w/o insignias, like small "vacationers" reinforsement squads inside separs units (final assault was conducted by recon-assault battalion "Sparta" and Caucasians) or like separate "volunteers". On enemy's video you can see also the fighter with Russian marines chevrone - this caused the legend about Russian regular marines units also participated in final assault, but no, that was just single man, which put on himself this chevron, maybe he just was former Marine or just for the sake of courage. There was not big problem to infiltrate the building and this not demanded special forces involvement. To this time "eyes" of airport - the control tower was ruined, defenders didn't know situation around. Also the command limited supporting fire - our coward politics played in "observance of truce", though already several days enemy shelled airport and nearby territory with all weapon. Enemy requested to take bodies of their figters from the underground storeys of airport, and our command commenced to our forces in airport to pass them. Even when cyborgs spotted concentration of large assauly group in abandoned monastery area - clearly not for bodies evacuation, they requested to open fire, but command prohibited as if "There was an agreement and do you really want to fire at monastery? Do you want to feed Russia TV-propaganda? Do not shot!". The fall of airport is completely on the conscience of politics.

Glen Grant, British military expert about Putin's build-up achieved goals:

If we say about 70th, separate tank battalions/regiments, equipped with heavy tanks or ISU-152 had completely other tasks and other subordination - as a rule they belonged to Army level, though some tank divisions had own battalion with heavy tanks. They were in constant readiness and stood in the boxes with loaded ammunition. In the cause of war, they had to move to the border immediately with the task "last stand" in order to win the time for other tank divisions, equipped with modern MBTs. GSFG's T-10, for example, even hadn't loader in own crew. Afer arriving on position, the driver left own place and became as loader - the tank turned out into armored bunker. Thus, using of heavy tanks had own specifics and didn't slow down other units. IS-3M at all were in small number - they partially remained after disbanding of heavy tank divisions and gradually were turned back to USSR. This tank finished own active service in 1973 - probably all useful IS-3 were gathered in 80th reserve cadre tank division of Transbaikal Miliatry District, were they kept to the end of 80th. This district also had reserve tank division equipped with T-34-85. So, you can see, that old tanks were moving to perifery, so if you discover the photos of some rarity armor in service in 70-80th it is not a sign they could use throughout all Soviet army.

In the end of 1976 also. There were about 20 "border defense tank battalions" in GSFG at the end of 60th, but this is unofficial name. Each had 70 T-10M. Also were units with mix of T-10M /IS-3M/ ISU-152. Officially T-10 were decomissioned only in 1993, but in real they finished own combat duty at the end of 70th. Some of them used for training purpose, but mostly they just awaited when it would be remelted or moved on firing ranges as targets. Some sources say some number of T-10 up to begining of 90th used on Far East with the same purpose like in Germany - for the border "last stand covering", but who knows this is correct or not.

Of course, General Staff has different plans of reaction. Of course, troops ready to fight, many of those, who fought in 2014-15 and now mostly retired ready to fight again. But all depends from the will of politics. And especially the President's will. Alas, both Poroshenko and much more Zelenskyi - they are not "warriors". They are both prefer evade the fight, because believe the agressor can be stopped by 1000 "round tables" and tons of papers. Europe demands from us the same - the way of compromises and apeasement. Putin just loughs and feels own impunity. Ukrainian navy doesn't exist now as a combat-value force. Our Maritime border guard is stronger now, than this "navy". Antiship missiles... We haven't its. New "Neptun"? But first battalion will be deployed only in 2022. Now we have half-battery of pre-serial specimen for personnel training. And this system is still too raw. Also this system depends from satellite targeting, which USA shares for us. Own radar is still in tests. Already no. We buy Russian gas in Europe, also partillay in Norway and there were several test liquified gas supplies through the Poland. But our economy still sensitive because of values of Russian gas transit to Europe. Also, as I said, NS-2 launch will create the threaten to national security.

Last GSVG's ISU-152 of 221st separate tank regiment of 2nd Guard Tank Army were moved back to USSR in October 1976. The regiment have received T-64A instead. In European part of USSR these SP-guns were been moving in reserve since begining of 70th, but on Far East ISU-152 delayed up to the end of 70th. And in Marines units too. But you should know, Far East defense system and units TO&E had own specific

Russia has overhelming advantage in aviation even in those forces, which already deployed near our borders. All our hopes is on relativaly strong air defense, which can inflict to Russians sensitive losses. Our aviation can be used only as limited addition to SAMs, else this will be one way ticket for our pilots. Ballistic missiles... Well... What we have? 12 launchers of old Tochka-U, which can be intercepted by Russian SAMs, if they of course will organize own "umbrella" properly. Will be better to strike bridges with cruise or ballistic missiles, also hit ammunition bases in the depth of country. Several days of such warfare, and even if the miracle happened and Zelenskyi will not crowl on knees to sign capitulation - only for the sake of "no more victims", that "ethernally deeply concerned Europe" will also push him to this step. Real politic and money likes the silence. There is 21st century now. Much simplier to buy this economical actives, maintaining loyal governments. Do you know Russian business a long time before the war bought almost Ukrainian oil rafinery plants and partially stop them? An interesting coincidence - now on the background of Russian military build-up, Ukraine encounter with lack of diesel. Critical resourse for armor, trucks and trains, which will be carry military cargo. We have only 25% of own diesel. And more 50% we... yes, DMS right here, we buy in Russia. Buy via commercial structures, belonging to Ukrainian politics, close to Kremlin, like Victor Medvedchuk, for example. Strange war...

Our experts consider such scenario probability as low. Russia doesn't want to conquer Ukraine. Neither Eastern bank of Dnieper, nor Western. Russian wants to force Ukraine for heavy political concessions, using the weakness of current president, which as I told further critically vulnerable in questions of warfare the losses, tied with it. Zelenskyi all this time thought that enough "to cease fire" and the war will be finished. Alas, he didn't change own mind even now. Reportedly, Ukrainian troops have received an order to refrain from the fire in response in order not to provoce Russia. Several days ago, in Paris, during the meeting with Macron and Merkel, Zelenskyi had withstood the pressure so far - France and Germany developed own vision of "clusters" about Donbas question, which almost completely suits Russia. And this vision they try to impose to Ukraine. Good "allies"! Also Crimean water supply question agan was rised unofficially, some sources say. So, Putin doesn't need in large-scale agression with Dnieper crossing etc... In the case of militray solution, Russian will arrange limited operations in Nova Kakhovka - Melitopol area (water for Crimea), in Donbas and probably some threaten actions on Kharkiv -Sumy direction. Russians even don't need to occupy large industrial cities. In the case of success, they just will cut off traffic lines, which almost paralize economical activity and force Ukraine to concessions.

A.Merkel on the PASE session made a statement that Germany will complete Nord Stream-2. Also she emphasized the importance of continuing a dialogue with Russia despite all tensions. Putin can open сhampagne. Many our experts believed, Putin can dare to take military actions against Ukraine not earlier than gas will pump through NS-2. Ukrainain pipe then will became almost needless and value of security of Ukraine in eyes of so-called "old Europe" will fall to zero. Europe doesn't want to confront with Russia. I belive if Putin will attack Baltic states, countries of "old Europe" (except UK) will find 100 000 reasons for "continuing dialogue" instead military response.

21st of April tomorrow, the speach of Putin. There is a large forum "The unity of Russians"will be gathered in Donetsk on 22-23 of April (on the screen of Russian former DNR-fighter and propagandist). Many well-known Russian propagandists already came to Donetsk. About 400 participators expects, large part of them will arrive from Russia. Either it will be tied with Putin's speach with probable recognition of "republics" - it's unknown. But, today also many social network channels and accounts of Russian propagandists suddenly shared information (on the screen) that Putin's recognition of DNR/LNR, which expects on tomorrow, is probably Ukrainian information diversion, "but we want to hope this information is mitake". Is there some sort of hesitations in Kremlin? All will be clear soon. Also expects that tomorrow Putin can make some statements about Belarus status on background of "exposing of assasination or abduction attempt" on Lukashenko and his sons. Lukashenko already blamed CIA, Western countries and even Ukrainian nationalists. USA moved to Poland several dozens of F-15 and F-16 fighters. Pentagon says this is "planned operation, not tied with Russian build-up on Ukrainian border". Who knows...

Mentioned above two large landing ships from Baltic fleet have entered Black sea today. Russian group of landing vessels in Black Sea now has 11 landing ships and more than 20 landing crafts and landing-assault boats.

To be serious it's enough for many years to read Russian military and even game forums. Авиабаза, Отвага, even old Наш Комбат CM-forum. It's enough to read posts not even Russian politics, but just second-level propagandists and most of usual Russians from how "Putin lifted Russia from the knees" to big amount of children songs about "great Putin" like "Дядя Вова, мы с тобой". The cult of person on minimals. But you have still a room to grow.

Two pr.775 Ropucha сlass landing ships "Alexander Otrakovsy" and "Kondopoga" of Northern Fleet have passed Bosphorus today. Their destination - Sevastopol. Next day the passing of another two the same landing ships, but from Baltic Fleet - "Koroliov" and "Kaliningrad" is expected Detachment of Caspian sea Flotilia of 15 banners (8 landing crafts, 3 armored gun boats, 4 supply vessels) passed Kerch strait and entered Black Sea from Azov sea. In Azov sea remained 3 missile corevtte of Caspian flotilia, armed with Calibr-NK cruise missiles.

Initially yes, and by mancount only. For example 51st brigade in the spring 2014 had about 300 men and 80-90 % of vehicles. But in ATO zone battalions were going equipped on 2/3 as minimum. We couldn't throw all army there, because have a threaten along all border with Russia and this forced to keep troops there. Also mobilization continued too long and in three waves in 2014 from March to July, and not only Army need in personnel: 1st wave: 18th of March - 1st of May - 35 000 2nd wave: 7th of May - 20th of June - 15 000 3rd wave: 24th of July - 6th of September - 60 000 (conscripts of this wave only partialy were involved in warfare of summer 2014) In spring 2014 Ukrainain army had on the paper 125 000 military servicemen, but indeed we had about 6000 personnel of quick reaction forces (2 week readiness) and about 15-30 000 of contractors and consripts (by different data) of usual readiness.

Yes. There was a program only for sate support of Malyshev factory after they completed Pakistan contract and turned out without work. This was good tank for maneuvers, but real warfare showed his weak places. Too weak engine, overheating in summer hot weather due to increased mass. Nozh ERA, mounted blocks of which was possible to change only in conditions of factory, not by field repair unit and some other. T-64BV mod.2017 already has much more capabilities, than Bulat. Bulats will be upgraded approx to mod.2017 level.

This is incident of 2018 year. Those, about which I have written above, took place today's night.

Biden entered sanctions against Russia and declared national emergency because of threat of national security of USA from harmful foreign activity of the Russian Federation: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/15/a-letter-on-blocking-property-with-respect-to-specified-harmful-foreign-activities-of-the-government-of-the-russian-federation/ So guys, LOOK OUT 21-23 OF APRIL. 21st of April Putin will deliver own annual report in front of Parliament. This will be key datas. Putin likes a symbols and symbolic datas. 21st day of 21st year of his rule of 21st year on century. On the next day a meetig of Federation Council is planned. Knowingly, DNR leaders prepared three variants of appeals to Putin. One with request for admission to Russia, the second with request of DNR independence recognition, and the third... I forgot.. Also all appeals include request about "military and security cooperation". Nobody knows which variant of appeals will send to Moscow. Nobody knows what Putin will say at 21st. And nobody knows for what Federation Council will gather next day and what it resolute. Probably Putin recognized DNR and we will have invasion without invasion. Russian troops according with agreement just will enter to DNR/LNR already not like "vacationers", but like real Russian occupation forces and this is will be next Abkhazia or Transnistria variant. If Ukraine will try to engage heavily - well, the rest of troops along our borders probably will make "forcing to the peace". But maybe USA and UK find some heavy arguments for Putin and will be nothing.

This is fake. Ukrainian twitters from Donbas keep silence about this. About Kerch strait. This night there was engagement in Azov sea in 25 miles from the Kerch strait between three our artillery boats, which escorted commercial vessels and five Russian Coast Guard boats. Russians dangerously maneuvered and threatened via radio. UKR boats warned they are ready to open fire and Russians left agressive attempts.

In theory - yes. If you look web-pages of Ukrainan weapon manufacturers, they offer many ammunition solutions, but... on the paper. MoD mostly does't buy it. They say: "Well, it is all good, but you must produce N pieces of this. For own money. And may be we will take it. And maybe will pay. Later" Really only new ATGMs and some types of MLRS and aviation ammunition produced steadily. Anti-ship missiles "Neptun" were launched to produce recently. But usual ground forces ammunition - we have big troubles with production. Bullet factory still on the paper on 8th year of war. Corruption, bureaucacy, contesting of different lobbysts, representing different groups of influence (money! big money!) in MoD, this is Ukraine, baby... The same destiny with production of artillery shells. MoD signed contract with a company from orbite of influence of Avakov and Pashinskyi - this 152 mm shells are terrible by quality. Our happy - despite several huge explosions on ammunition bases we have so much Soviet ammunition, which will enough for many years of conflict with curent intensity. Though we have a lack of ammo for AGS-17 and GP-25 and buy its in Bulgaria, 60 mm shells for new mortars - in Serbia and USA. BMP-1 in Chech Republic. We have a lack of tank ammunitions, especially APFSDS. I heard BM42 Mango almost didn't use in 2014, because this "emergency store" for big war. We have a lack of some types of 152 mm shells for 2A36 and 2S19 and many more.

Yes, only Azov has such type of tanks. Since Zelenskyi became a president, Azov almost didn't use in OOS zone by rotations so as not to "anger" Russia during attempts of make agreement in negotiations. So, if already Azov is moving to frontline, our leaders really prepare to the worth.

News about Kerch strait closing is not completely confirmed yet. But this may be true. There is an opinion, Russians already have stored all of need to them in previous years. Current group of troops also partially moved from other regions of Russian. About half of them is constantly deployed here new-formed divisions. Ukrainan general Zabrodskyi, ex-chief of Air-assault troops considres, Russia will not be establish classical breackthrough groups, but just will cross the border with occupied Donbass territories and will built up own involvement gradually, depending on Ukrainain reaction. In this time they formed three groups: - Voronezh-Oriol (against north-east of Ukaraine): 15 BTG - Don (against OOS zone in Donbas): 11 BTG - Crimea: 22 BTG About dozen of BTGs are on the way. Full deployment will be completed during next week. Estimating number of personnel - 110 000

I read PSRL was exactly for NGU purposes. Army has probably unlimited reserve of stored Soviet-time RPG-7, but has a lack of some sort of ammunition to it.

BM Bulat several years ago were moved form 1st tank brigade to 3rd reserve tank brigade. Periodically they are spotted on differnt maneuvers. They are planned to limited modernization. Their last appearance on this week during maneuvers near Crimea isthmus:

Here the full OOB of Ukrainan army probably at the end of 2019, but changes to 2021 is not so big Ground forces - 61st brigade already not infantry of 4th Reserve Corps as in the list, but jager brigade of "North" Operative Command: https://en.ukrmilitary.com/p/ukrainian-ground-forces.html Air-assault command: https://en.ukrmilitary.com/p/ukrainian-airmobile-forces-ukrainian-is.html Naval forces and Marine Command: https://en.ukrmilitary.com/p/ukrainian-naval-forces-navy-ukrainian.html Special operations forses Command: https://en.ukrmilitary.com/p/special-operations-forces.html Also National Guard among own units has 3 brigades, 3 regiments and 4 separate battalions of operative purpose, which equipped with armor, including tanks and artillery and can be used as usual infantry.