Tux

Hey LongLeft, I generally agree w your analysis here.  Except that it aint liberals who are the problem in the west when it comes to supporting democracy & freedom.  Biden & Obama haven't been kissing Putin's ass, that other feller and his enablers are the ones doing that.  I am sure there's some lefties calling for no war at all cost.  There's been a daily peace protest by a bunch of old hippies in front of the county courthouse in my town for years now, and I saw them the other day w signs about Ukraine, wanting to negotiate -- as if that's an option!  But those lefties are the fringe, not the mainstream.
So how about you think before you throw around these outdated tropes?  It's not the lefties that were trying to destroy NATO, wreck western partnerships,  and empower Putin for four recent long years.  The most popular nightly news commentary show on TV is so pro-Putin it'd be banned on this forum -- and its viewers are all righties, not lefties.
But overall, keep up the good work, I do really like your posts.

There is a lot of reasons to show that Russia is actually fighting against NATO. One, gives Putin a escape for why the Russian military is getting trashed vs inferior Ukraine. Two, when Russia gets defeated, the defeat will go down easier than Russians realizing their former imperial subject is a fighter in their own right.
That is why it's important for Ukraine to take the lead in peace talks, and for NATO to refrain from great power negotiations that may or may not sacrifice Ukraine's agency as the U.S and Russia hash it out with Ukraine on a map.
It may be easier for Russians to accept being defeated by NATO than Ukraine, and certainly that would mean more likelihood Putin keeps his head. Something else to add, as long as Russia has nukes, external overthrow cannot occur, only internally can the Russian state be changed. A former imperial subject dictating peace terms is a major humiliation vs a great power clash. 
Putin will seek to expand conflict to NATO more overtly, if nothing else than to force a great power peace conference where Ukraine is not the one sitting at the other end of the very long table.
In that sense, the restrain shown by Biden and NATO is well suited for opposing Putin.

Are we getting cavalry back?
Sorry, couldn't resist 😄

Since I am also curious about the state of play of the slo-mo "Potemkin" offensive against Slovyansk, I went back over the last 90 pages of this thread (only 15 April!) and pulled out some of the key assessments made by our esteemed experts. All hail and praise unto them!
1. @The_Capt scans the terrain for the Izyum axis (page 532)
2. @Combatintman maps out the potential axes for a 'pincer' attack (page 548)
3.  @Haiduk confirms the attack (page 553)

4. @Kinophile shows us vividly how exposed are the northern approaches to Slovyansk (page 556)
5. @Combatintman revises the axes in light of the actual Russian advances (p557)

6. @Combatintman estimates RA force strength around Izyum at 16 BTGs not the 22 advertised
7. @The_Capt floats the interesting hypothesis that this is a 'look busy but don't bleed too much' offensive.
8. @Haiduk updates the actions around Izyum as of 23 Apr (p593)


9. @Combatintman evaluates the Engagement Area around Dovenkhe (Izyum-Slovyansk road)
 

10.  @The_Capt assesses the state of play: "using BTGs to try and find a hole in the UA defence instead of a recon screen" 
 
11. @Haiduk's latest update, noting RA gains in contested Zarichne village and a flanking operation at Yampi (which has netted them some UA prisoners)(p.610)
12.  This....
 
 

Finally, a (minor) topic where my water resources engineering experience may be relevant to this thread. Checking out this dam on google maps, I would say that it would be a poor target for sabotage. It appears to function to maintain local river depth for navigation and for diversion to agriculture. It would have very little flood control function, and would be more likely to be damaged by a flood than to cause one by failing. A quick look around finds several similar structures in the region that would have a higher potential for economic or infrastructure damage if they failed. If this was a target, it was probably a target of opportunity, not choice. Given the background rate of accidental infrastructure failure, I would hesitate to read too much into it.
The unrelated flooding pictured in the tweet, with the church on the hill, appears to be the Desna River in Bryansk, no where near the dam pictured on the Kuban river.
But mostly I registered (after lurking since the CMBO demo) to say thank you to everyone participating in this discussion. For what it's worth, I think the updates, analysis, and debate here are as good or better than anything I'm reading or listening to from professional news outfits and think-tanks. Thank you for being here and doing what you do.

Mike? Mike Sparks? Is that you buddy? Where have you been!?

so just because my eyes are trained to look for this stuff, that 2nd image has gone through an AI upscale and any speculation should be thrown into the trash, unsure of the first image, didn't compare the res to the original, but considering the guy posting this has 22 followers, expect this to be a twitter follower grab or hes dumb and doesnt under stand that tech, he's posted multiple "high res versions" ignore this pls. its bad data.

Amusing, if not a little sad. There’s no problem with kids playing with guns of course, but that every single one has a toy rifle is testament to the fact that war and militarism are an inseparable part of their lives. Better than submission or cowardice of course, but it’s still a shame they couldn’t grow up in a less violent world.

Interesting approach to trolling the thread. Demanding work on the game like a spoilt brat…

You know how a war begins, but never how it ends. Beware of starting a war or getting into it

Yes it's always nice to call for a World War when others will do the fighting on distant lands beyond the oceans. 
 

Oryx has a sense of humour
 
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1513565114926084096?s=20&t=86bQREwufI_vFco_tz3Jhw

Excellent point, I strongly agree. Though I also suspect that anyone who hasn't already drawn that lesson from (for example) looking at the Western Allies in World War II compared to the Axis or the Soviets, either isn't paying attention or has already reached a dogmatic opinion that will be impervious to "soft" and "decadent" ideals like reason, logic and evidence...much less empathy for the average soldier or concern for the rights of individuals.

It's strange. Some people in this thread have decried press taking a picture of a cat as representative of vacuous MSM manipulation. But they don't seem to mind being manipulated by a picture of the press taking a picture of a cat. That picture was a snapshot, a moment in time. I highly doubt that people who have risked their lives to actually be there would spend their whole time photographing just a cat. How do you rabidly photograph anyway?
But war is conducted by humans and it is human to be drawn to life and comforted by it among such tragic destruction. Maybe it even helps with morale.
Here is another thread about a cat. By an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. I suppose he should be doing more important things too than being compassionate to an innocent creature.
 

I don't like this "decadence" narrative, partly because it reminds me of all the pre-WW1 talk of "the cleansing bath of steel" and stuff like that, considering how that turned out. We shouldn't dismiss advances of western civilisation as making us "weaker". If anything, actually embodying these ideals would be a great advantage when it comes to checking the influence of autocracies in the developing world. I mean, how can we expect them to see the light of democracy and freedom if our actions are so often obviously guided by economic self-interest?
Also, it is easy to talk the big talk if you are not the one who will be sent into the meatgrinder if push comes to shove. Sometimes I wish the boomers would find the same sudden steely resolve in response to inequality and injustice within their own societies, but sadly it seems reserved for external enemies...

Three lieutenants in a BMP? If one had a map that was doomed to fail...

Some facts:
UK left the EU not NATO. EU has 27 members. NATO has 30 members. The EU has no say on what weapons member states' supply Ukraine.  
  Last fact:
     5. Increased bureaucracy for UK, that has created "friction" with moving goods around EU, is a direct consequence of Brexit agreement with EU. Friction would not exist without occurrence of Brexit.

Not sure this was posted yet:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61038811
Based on reputable, serious news outlets, it feels like every area, village, town of occupation has seen the Russian army live up to pretty much the worst that’s been said about it. Obvs the quoted link isn’t from such a source but it’s shocking (so yes until validated it could be propaganda- but the fact I now doubt it, why shouldn’t I given What else they’ve done, is most important - well to me anyway!).
At the risk of re-raising the bigger racist debate, but really to say I regret giving the benefit of the doubt, I can only see a small difference between this institutionalised violence, thuggery and carelessness for human life and what the Nazis did. Frankly I fear it might only take competence for the Russian army/state to replicate such systematisation.
@kraze, sorry. Pretty sure you’ve said as much.
I’m still (always) for a Marshall plan option but only for the sake of the future generations of Russians. This current lot appear largely poisoned, despite the protest attempts by some. This is helping me understand the frustration and bewilderment western soldiers & journalists (I.e. Gelhorn) felt when faced with the cynicism and denial of many Germans post 1944.

I doubt it, more a distraction to help Johnson back home rather than to help Ukraine.
I hope the #ucking lack of visas to Ukrainian refugees was on the table, people in UK want to help but the Government is asking for paperwork even for cat's being brought into the UK. 
I am glad we have sent weapons but we could be doing more to help the refugees. 

Driving in circles is far more effective.  Confuses the incoming shells.

if you use "woke and PC" you are just another brainwashed tool.  This is just a shiny object meant to ignite culture wars.  We have much bigger problems.  Like in the USA we are considered now a failing democracy.  And it's not because of some "woke & PC" horses-t.  It's because of a very different brand of propaganda.
So how about we all call a truce on this foolishness and get back to Ukraine?  Do we not (nearly) all here have a shared interest in seeing the new Hitler defeated?  What I care about is that the west (and the world) stays united and that Ukraine can emerge 'victorious', although that's an odd word for having a big part of one's country laid to ruin.

Tiresome and boring! Stop trolling!

You can do it little guy. Just…keep…going…

This is certainly true! Johnson's Govt is desperate to demonstrate that the UK is leading in Europe.

Brexit has been a disaster, exposing many short-comings of British policy introduced on the back of the change, although this hasn't been fully recognised by the electorate YET.... so the Govt is trying to head off the fallout now with any contingency measures it can employ to prevent the inevitable landslide in public opinion.

Very specifically, a strong criticism of Brexit, as pointed out by the remain camp during the campaign was the likely diminished influence of the UK at the European table. The current crisis has obviously threatened to expose this vulnerability. This explains the UK Govt's approach to the crisis, as it attempts to cover up this prevalent weakness in UK diplomatic power. It's a form of over compensation intended for domestic consumption. With that, and other issues that are currently plague the UK Prime Minister, he needs consistently good newspaper headlines.