Lethaface

3rd assault brigade: "For last days we managed to advance near Bakhmut and gain a foothold. Enemy has here an advantage in mencount, ammunition and aviation. Nevertheless, we are finding weak places in their defense and hit there. We are "lucky" to fight against convicts. But now they are not from Wagner, but from army Shtorm-Z detachments. And mostly units of 57th motor-rifle brigade [from Khabarovsk, Far East, 5th CAA] are in front of us. Russian aviation works several times for a day. They are continue to transfer reserves here - as defensive units and assault unit, which try to push off us from our positions back. But now they forced to react on our actions rather than plan own"  

Is it just me, or is the signpost sticking through the track?

Those KA 52 are fighting like the Western attack helicopters were supposed to attack in the 1970s and 1980s, hovering behind terrain obstacles and popping up just to shoot an ATGM. Even the flimsy BO 105 were supposed to be able to survive fighting like that. Now Kamovs are additionally using the 10 km range of their Vikhr missiles.  No Manpads has that range and the Ukrainians do not have any vehicle-based SHORAD like Tunguska able to accompany tanks and APCs . I guess the answer is Ukrainians will have to suck it up.

It's Ukraine %)
 

The losses are concerning, but a lot of this Ukraine counter-attack force is green and they are still learning, mistakes are going to be made. I would only start to really get concerned if this trend continues.. but I have faith that they are smart enough to make the adjustments required in order to succeed.
This is a very small part of the entire force in action and is in a very concentrated area... I would suggest standing by and letting things play out; I suspect a lot of good news is going to come our way very soon.

That capability exists.  Not going to solve this problem unless you had a fleet of them.  If you did you could likely overwhelm the defences on the minefield and then crash it in multiple places.
People are wondering what the hell the UA is doing?  Exactly what we trained them to do, this is a western mechanized breach.  Now explosive breaching would be a better solution but I am not sure UA has that.  And if they do they are likely saving it for the main assault.

These sorts of reactions are delusional - Just stop it guys - The only thing that matters is the  operational level goals at this point . We should not be freaking out about tactical losses - these are guaranteed to happen .  I mean seriously - please restraint the doom and gloom posts and  just thanks your lucky stars you are not at the leading edge of these attacks . The Ukrainians are  the ones shedding their blood to retake their own territory back from the orcs  . Give them some room please ! .

I specifially mentioned, i know losses are invitable, what im talking about is vuhledar style attacks, that achieve nothing but kill crews.
Driving over it the first time, ok, a 2nd time? Right next to the other killed vehicles? People had a good laugh when Russia did it now this falls under a normal, expected per the book military command?
Inb4: i know its not the whole front.. - but does that excuse this?

Okay, before I lose my cool🫠: am I mistaking that these are new Bradleys, that tried to drive around the older Bradleys, that have already succeeded in demining activity, and got blown up in the same line, which probably contains the mine belt? Or were those just not visible in the first pictures?
They all look abandoned after going over mines (which means easy pickings for drones with grenades and artillery, btw)
And please dont start with the "its an attack losses are standard" what makes me angry is that this appears like a zhukov style drive forward and explode command, not a battle. Especially since this appears to be a 2nd attempt at driving through there. Maybe a 3rd "probe" will do.

but still I am worried 

You either believe or you have evidence. If you have evidence, there is no need to believe. I was deliberately exaggerating (a bit) but there are people on both sides who ignore facts, cherry pick facts or simply make up their own facts in order to make what they observe fit what they believe. And if you are trying to analyse what is happening there is no good or bad distortion of facts.

I think it is the actual counter offensive, but I don't think it will be like in WW1 where officers suddenly blow their whistles and hundreds of thousands of troops climb out of their trenches and charge forward in one big wave.
This wave is probably going to be more like those tsunamis where there's no big breaker but the water just starts rising and keeps rising.

So at the beginning of this we talked a lot about Macro masking - how high level analysis missed the growing bow wave of counter-factual little details as the war unfolded. This led to wrong conclusions and deductions that took some analysts months to get over.
The meme social media phenomenon were are seeing now is going the other way - Micro masking aka confirmation bias.  Every streamed engagement is confirmation of what we want to happen, not what is actually happening.  Here I tend to focus on results and broader trends with a healthy dose of context.  We are maybe just getting into the UA offensive and the actual operational effects are unclear.  We will know once they are because we will start seeing them on the ground and broader battle spaces. Until then propaganda amplification is going to happen on both sides.
This would be why I do not really observe the progress of this war other than here and ISW. The noise leaks through the walls here too but we do try and maintain a semblance of sanity.  We definitely want Ukraine to succeed but if we are seeing these same actions in three months with no real progress, we are going to have to admit the UA is spent and this war is going to take a different trajectory to conclusion. No amount of meming is going to change the facts.  If we see major success and signs of RA collapse then we will know the other way.
We spent a lot of time crystal balling, now is time to simply try and figure out what is actually happening.

So the UA attacked where we (and probably the Russians) thought they would most likely attack. Attacking where the defenders know you are going to attack seems to me very uncharacteristically for the UAF.
How long will it take for the Russians to really think this is IT, and begin to shift their resources? And where will the real attack be?
Or is this some kind of double think game where the Russian keep thinking that this is a feint, not shift their resources, and then actually get defeated in the place they knew the attack would come?

There are faithful on both sides, so this cuts both ways.
I find people who tell me the offensive has failed already because Ukraine has taken some losses and there has been no break through on day 1 about as bewildering as people from the "Ukrainians are tactical genius uber soldiers, now invincible with NATO wonder weapons, Russia already lost, lol" meme show, who now tell people how stupid they are because such things take time and sacrifice.
Deliberately exaggerating, no offence meant to anyone here.

+1
To be honest, I'm getting really tired of these braindead "NAFO" shills on social media who are making any realistic discussion about the war increasingly impossible without blocking dozens of people first. 

Follow up with regards to the shark...
 
 

We need more and better mechanics for mine warfare in the next game. Their effect on the conduct of this war has been absolutely enormous.

The defeat phenomenon can occur rapidly, but when and when remains a mystery until it does.  It like watching someone work on a stuck zipper. They work and work on it until 2 or more elements finally align and connect and the slider suddenly gives way. 

So true...
 

I like seeing those actually . Feeling the need to call the outcome of an operation with supposedly multiple brigades in strength which, when there is some video of what could be like a company/battalion on the move having difficult time, perfectly shows their petty thoughts of trivial value. Kids in the chocolate propaganda factory who enjoy being fooled 😎.
 

I mean one wonders how the Allies would have fared with modern style social media pundits screaming that the  Normandy Invasion had failed  - "we are stuck on the beaches ... we are doomed !"  . I am tempted myself to  restrict myself to weekly updates only .

Oh, sh....t. 3:30 of night now and next mass ballistic strike on Kyiv was 20 minutes ago. It was VERY loud and reportedly over left-bank districts of the city. About two dozens explosions. Preliminary Iskanders, launched from Klintsy area, Briansk oblast. Looks like all were intercepted. I think, more details will be at the morning. Well, I should try to sleep after THIS.

This is also an upgraded version from the Netherlands, which has a better radar:
 

Love it when they get at each others throat...