Lethaface

Out of likes as usual (first world problem :D), but here is one.
Yemen anyone? Sudan also going on, etc. This war has large ramifications for most of us. Indirect results like inflation, energy pricing, etc; 
Anyway I'm not that bleak about support dwindling yet; so far it's more of a media / politics thing afaik. Of course from Ukraine perspective the support can never come (quickly) enough. 

Out of likes as usual (first world problem :D), but here is one.
Yemen anyone? Sudan also going on, etc. This war has large ramifications for most of us. Indirect results like inflation, energy pricing, etc; 
Anyway I'm not that bleak about support dwindling yet; so far it's more of a media / politics thing afaik. Of course from Ukraine perspective the support can never come (quickly) enough. 

I think this is a very limited perspective which is mainly made for internal USA consumption. The average USA voter probably believed Kiev / Ukraine was  a Russian province before the '22 invasion. They need some convincing as to why they are involved in this war.
While 'real politik' is real, it's not the sole thing that makes the world turn. Plus it comes in many layers and perspectives.  
FWIW I know for certain that the 'big dude' (there is only USA, no other big dudes) being unhappy was nor is the sole reason my country supports Ukraine. Nor is MH-17 the sole reason. I think the same can be said for most other European countries.

If in the end there is any 'sole' reason it is that ultimately 'we' realized, after plenty of broken words and promises and being on the receiving end of unwelcome unvaselined sticks inserted to our cavities, that Russia's regime is and will be a bunch of conniving corrupt bastiges who will do over anyone anywhere as long as they get a gain from it; and kill anyone standing in their way.
We might have been a bit late coming to that conclusion, but now we have arrived at it we are stubbornly sticking to it until 'real politik' forces us to do different.
For what it is worth I think the average Dutch voter wouldn't want Ukraine to fight a proxy war on our behalf. We are not dying; if Ukraine doesn't want to die for it's own existence, than let us make money off the Russians. 'We' were refining a good chunk of their raw resources / half fabricates and selling the end product back to them at good profit. 

I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it? 
In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D. 
Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.

 

I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it? 
In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D. 
Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.

 

I don't think it's really somber, it's just realistic. 

FWIW at times I was probably also over-hopeful regarding the 'offensive', in part because it looked like that Russia was lacking ATGMs / AT assets, the obstacle belt was being ridiculed and defensive coordination / morale seemed lackluster at the time Russia / Wagner was grinding in Bakhmut.
The first days of the counter offensive, before we even knew whether it had really started, already showed that the mine belts combined with drone observation / coordinated fires and deep AT assets were a serious issue and not easily overcome without heavy casualties. 
So, did the offensive fail? That depends where you hold the bar. If you hold it at our unrealistic expectations, then yes it failed. However accounting for the reality on the ground I'm not sure it failed. There is always room for improvement and probably Ukraine made enough mistakes, but as long as they keep learning and maintain their will and capability to fight... 
Is that a failure or is that progress / learning on the job? 

If only for those reasons I expected Ukraine to choose Bakhmut as the main effort (after the first mine belt + artillery / Ka-52 interactions), because the (mostly) Wagner forces who achieved the 'success' there were sort of spend and new units, probably mobiks, would have to hold the line which they didn't have time to really fortify as they did with all the other directions. Plus defeating Wagner would destroy the myth.
A couple of months later and Wagner was indeed destroyed but not necessarily by Ukraine :D. I guess nobody could have really predicted what happened. 
That brings me back to whether or not the offensive failed. If one had a neutral expectation, I don't think it really failed. It surely could have gone better but also could have gone a lot worse. 
So we can all relearn the lesson to keep expectations low; or rather expect the worst but hope for the best. That's not being cynical, just being realistic 😀
And like most/all of us expected, this war won't be over even if Ukraine manages to push Russia back to pre-22 borders. So what they can't manage to push Russia back to pre-22 borders in '23? The war wouldn't been over anyway.

I think this is a very limited perspective which is mainly made for internal USA consumption. The average USA voter probably believed Kiev / Ukraine was  a Russian province before the '22 invasion. They need some convincing as to why they are involved in this war.
While 'real politik' is real, it's not the sole thing that makes the world turn. Plus it comes in many layers and perspectives.  
FWIW I know for certain that the 'big dude' (there is only USA, no other big dudes) being unhappy was nor is the sole reason my country supports Ukraine. Nor is MH-17 the sole reason. I think the same can be said for most other European countries.

If in the end there is any 'sole' reason it is that ultimately 'we' realized, after plenty of broken words and promises and being on the receiving end of unwelcome unvaselined sticks inserted to our cavities, that Russia's regime is and will be a bunch of conniving corrupt bastiges who will do over anyone anywhere as long as they get a gain from it; and kill anyone standing in their way.
We might have been a bit late coming to that conclusion, but now we have arrived at it we are stubbornly sticking to it until 'real politik' forces us to do different.
For what it is worth I think the average Dutch voter wouldn't want Ukraine to fight a proxy war on our behalf. We are not dying; if Ukraine doesn't want to die for it's own existence, than let us make money off the Russians. 'We' were refining a good chunk of their raw resources / half fabricates and selling the end product back to them at good profit. 

I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it? 
In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D. 
Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.

 

In Ukraine, both sides have modern integrated air defence systems,  with MANPADS, short range air defences, and longer range systems all the way up to patriot / s-300 / s-400 systems with huge ranges over 100km. They have the operational depth to locate these systems 10s of kms from the front line to help protect and conceal them. They have integrated radar systems, an air force with interceptors, and (to an unknown degree) at least potential access to airborne and space based intelligence gathering systems.
In Israel, one of the sides has this (more or less), while hamas has no air defences beyond whatever manpads they've managed to smuggle in past the Israeli and Egyptian blockades, and a territory that is a few km wide at its widest point, and an opponent that started from a position of such military superiority for decades than any attempt to build a meaningful air defence system (in their tiny territory) would be detected and destroyed long before it was even marginally effective - assuming they could even find a route to get a significant system in theatre without it being intercepted. Hard to smuggle an s-300 through a small cross-border tunnel...

Damn mosquitos...
 

I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it? 
In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D. 
Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.

 

Oh, there will be, for sure. Maybe not 5 minutes after it happened.
This video post is the first I saw this (partly because I've been driving around a good part of the day). In the US, there is a broad antipathy to the policies of the Israeli government and that has been so for years. But there is also very strong support for them as well. What there also is is VERY widespread support for the Israeli people. 
Most people can separate governmental policy from the people. Others will unfairly malign the critics as lacking support for Israel. It's complicated 😀
Dave

Like most of your other theories, come up with one shred of supporting evidence.  Of course there was diplomacy but no one coerced Ukraine into giving up land mines.  The fact that Ukraine still has cluster munitions is proof that coercion was not the primary method of trying to get people to sign on to any of these treaties.  Prove it.
Again the West can’t win.  We somehow blindly trusted Russia and then violated agreements not to contain them through NATO expansion. We forced Russia’s hand and let them do dirty through inaction- at the same time.  Here is the truth and you can go back to the Budapest Memo debate we had on this…Ukraine agreed to all of the arms reductions the each step on the way.  Ukraine was paid millions for those reductions and signed off on every one.  Ukraine signed off on guarantees - weak as they were - as well.  So now that things have obviously gone sideways, you want to forget all that and put all the blame on the US/West for this mess?  You want to forget gross political corruption in defence - that is still happening according to some - that very likely would have seen all those MANPADs sold off to a highest bidder, many in those VEOs we faced for 20 years?  Are we to honestly believe that you are saying with a straight face that Ukraine would have held onto all that weaponry for a rainy day 20-30 years later?
The West’s failure was in not acting decisively and with unity back in 2014.  We definitely did not step up and push back hard enough.  That is a fair point.  Further we definitely could have moved faster in late 21.  The rest of your narrative is unsubstantiated, and frankly self-serving.  The West does not owe Ukraine a damned thing based on its failures.  
It owes you support because it is the right thing to do.  Ukraine is an independent nation that was minding its own business when Russia decided to invade and murder.  That is why we support Ukraine.  Not some bizarre construct of culpability pulling half the facts from the 1990s.

And this is where I stop listening.  "Forced" to sign the Ottawa treaty.  Sure.  By who?  Bigfoot?
They were!
"May 1990: Gorbachev and Bush Meet at Camp David and Washington
Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met in Washington and Camp David in May 1990. They signed a key elements agreement for a strategic arms treaty, a chemical weapons reduction accord, and a trade agreement reducing barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce. They also concluded several other bilateral accords to increase cultural and scientific exchanges, and maritime and air links. In addition, the two leaders discussed the topics of Lithuania and German unification. Following the summit, President Gorbachev journeyed to Minneapolis to meet local business leaders. The next day, he met with former President Reagan in San Francisco before returning to Moscow."
https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm#:~:text=Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met,barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce.
Hey, you want to paint some nonsense Grampa Simpson rants on how this war you are in is all the US/West's fault - go for it, see how far it gets you in sustaining international support. 
Oh and you totally got me with that picture:
  


Clear indication of a Canadian conspiracy to get into bed with Russia...must be why we forced Ukraine to sign the Ottawa treaty.

Probably not one answer:
1. Israeli- Saudi deal was reportedly in the making that would likely cut support from some Gulf players and move Palestinian question into second or third-rate case in ME world (if it is not there for a long time there, anyway).
2.Nice round 50 anniversary of Yom Kippur.
3. Hamas doesn't care about civilians in Gaza being bombed; in fact the harder, the better. All will go to jannah. They are in sick, masochistic synergy with Israeli extremists.
4. Despite massive intelligence failures being blame on leaders, Ben Gvir will likely have an golden opportunity now to exchange officers and internal ministry workers for his own. Netanyahu also finally have his white horse he can ride on. I am not suggesting anything conspiratory, but still cannot grab how intelligence failure of this scale was possible ... let's enumerate: anniversary, likely thousands of participants on Hamas side, latest settlers invading Al-Aksa (4th October), rocket launchers being put in the open by dozens...they should be on guard. There are just clips dropping of several Israeli bases reinforced with towers, concrete and full of top armour  being simply ridden down by 8 guys with kalashikovs and rpg's.
I think as military operation, Hamas actions will be worth to study closer, even in context of Ukraine war.

Since no one else is listening to Steve about Israel....
I am pro-Israel.  And I am pro-Palestinian.  Meaning they both deserve to live & have a state & have rights.  In my crazy mind Palestinians and Jews are actually all....people.
The attack:  I hope the crazies had fun.  All that will come of this is Israel killing over 10x the number of people it lost, taking land, and becoming more entrenched in hatred.  Like the bus bombings of 20+ years ago, which utterly destroyed the Israeli peace movement.  While great fun for some imbecilic radicals who think they actually achieved something, it will do nothing but bring death, misery and more poverty to the people these idiots claim to represent.  And Netanyahu loooooooves this.  He gets to be big daddy protector now, and he'll pound the hell out of whatever he thinks he needs/wants to in response to this.

I honestly do not even see that link.  Israel does not need anymore western support to deal with Hamas. The IDF is the 15th largest military on the planet by budget and has about 650k thousand troops to pull on.  They are amongst the most modern equipped and trained land forces in the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces
Hamas military wing is a fraction of that:
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izz_ad-Din_al-Qassam_Brigades
An although getting some pretty deep pockets for a terror organization, is not in the same league with respect to conventional warfare.  
I am not sure what triggered this whole thing right now, but my money is on internal pressures not international events.
In fact Hamas timing is actually poor.  With the West being distracted and somewhat numb we probably will be less likely to care when the IDF start pounding the ever living crap out of Gaza, followed up by a brutal ground invasion.

In the 90s the US held back and tried to be a team player.  In the 2000s after 9/11 it said "screw that" and started throwing weight around.  It was "wrong" both times according just about everyone.  It is any surprise that a highly conservative-isolationist sentiment is on the rise in US politics?
But hey, we are at the point where a few Palestinian idiots (who are likely to be dead soon) singing at a wedding are being taken as a foreign policy indicator.
Here is a guy who is convinced it was a Russian attack because Hamas used drones: 
https://tvpworld.com/73258518/russia-is-behind-hamas-attacks-on-israel-expert
But hey choose your own truth, I guess:
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/many-albertans-think-global-warming-is-a-hoax-but-ufos-are-real-poll

C'mon, that is really bordering on conspiracy theories we do not want to get into. In fact the logic doesn't even make sense.  Israel had "too strong ties with Russia", yet Russia was also supporting Hamas to conduct an attack of this scale?  So Russia did this because...why?  Israel was already pretty much out of this war, so why open up another front?
Russia is in bed with Iran because they are anti-US/West.  What interest does Russia possibly have in a war in Israel?  In fact if Russia had that sort of pull wouldn't Israel "going all in in Ukraine" simply accelerated what is happening now?  This is drawing links where none exist.  Hamas and Israel have been going to war with each other for over 20 years, they really don't need a Russian (or US) excuse to do so again.
None of this comes close to justify saying that "it is all Israel's fault because Ukraine".  If Israel had somehow really supported Ukraine then Hamas would not be doing whatever this is, I mean seriously?!  

1) yes and I can spam this board with dozens of videos of vehicles blowing up while in the task of supporting troops, because they lingered a few minutes too long, because it can be done doesnt equate to its the ideal blueprint for all assault operations and claiming 'combined arms still not learned' is a wrong conclusion - Its an ideal, that when it happens, great, when it doesnt results end up on oryx.
2) plenty of FPV kills on vehicles on the move, either to or from combat too. The easy pickings ofc also fpv drones do but they arent "slow" to show up to a fight - but vehicles attempt to not be there when they and other means arrive 
3) its an ideal result, tanks as assault guns work good, but ifvs and APCs not so much. Risk reward, if the enemy is dug in around areas that are hard to get a bearing on, or suspected to be mined - LOS and 'wiping out' becomes difficult. Plenty of videos of Russian tanks blasting forest strips only to be hit by said forest strip
4) conditions can range from abysmal to ideal, attacks  sometimes have to happen despite adverse conditions, maybe this was such a case, where speed mattered above hunting down the very last ATGM launcher nearby(etc).

Oh even better, let’s double down shall we - now it is all the “West’s fault”.  The US did not “force” anyone to disarm.  Ukraine took the money happily and got rid of mountains of old USSR stocks that would not have shortened you current war at all. Or worse held onto strategic nukes that would have accelerated one.
Regardless, what is unfolding in Israel has nothing to do with their stance on Russia. Or the West not carpet bombing Moscow every time a suicide bomber goes off in Tel Aviv.  In fact beyond some pretty tenuous money trails from Russia buying stuff from Tehran to support their war, that in turn likely funded some Hamas, the link is non-existent.  We could have pounded Russia into sand and Hamas would still be doing this sort of stuff, or do you honestly think deterrence extends that far.
For the record it is in extremely bad taste to post video of slaughtered Israeli civilians and follow up with “I told you so”, especially when the “told” is so far off the mark it borders on John Kettler-level.  It suggests that in your opinion that Israel deserves whatever this is because they have not sent Ukraine enough whatever - statements like that make one wonder just who the hell we are supporting in this war.
Globally, basically the only way you appear to be satisfied is if the US and West essentially start behaving like Russia - that will somehow make the world a better place?  We tried a lot of hard power flexing in the 2000s, we invaded two countries and a whole lot of westerners are left wondering what the freakin point was.  Now we got new messes to deal with and do not need partners we are trying to keep above water telling us “you are doing it wrong” anymore than Ukraine wants us to tell you how to win your war.

Which is btw why i dint quote a manual but linked a video showing it done in ukraine.
The typical sequence ive seen is Arty from approach til the end of the fight, ATGMs joining in in the main fight and FPV drones largely finishing off abandoned vehicles or harassing outside of the main fight.
Which is why the tank in the video ive linked wasnt able to deal with the troops in the trench... except wiping them out.
Without setting conditions every attack is suicide.
I only play against human oponents.
And you have to expose yourself eventually as the attacker. The trick is to do it in a way that maximises the combat power difference between you and your oponent at the point of contact.

While I don't doubt that Russia via it's relationship with Iran has friendly ties with Hamas, more likely, it's 50 years plus a day since the start of the 1973 October (Yom Kippur) War.

All this only works if the enemy is not reacting, its like a manual, easy to write and print. Reality is different often enough.
The moment a unit with resources spots these vehicles ATGM crews will move out, FPV drones will cause mobility kills and artillery will do the rest.
The vehicles wont do much supporting after that and will just be lost with little additional gain.
Especially since the main fighting happens in areas direct fire vehicles have little effect, as the Russian Mobik is a creature of the earth, living deep below the surface
Without good Intel that the enemy lacks certain assets or forcing conditions in which these are occupied/disabled beforehand, staying in the field is suicide.
Against AI in CM it'll work, against a competent opponent you will lose what you expose!
 

"Alfa" SBU special force targeted TOS-1A and it was hit by HIMARS with nice firework. Zaporizhzhia oblast.