beardiebloke

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

The globe is covered by a lot of submarine cables.  In theory Russia could cut many of them and cause mayhem.  However, they can be repaired (as they often are).  Russia on the other hand has only two cables going east to Japan. To the west it's all terrestrial or to Kaliningrad.  They can transit China but that's expensive.  They could connect to the south but all of those countries are difficult and/or expensive.  Basically a NATO + Japan blockade (for as long as required) of telecoms to Russia would be crippling.  They could still get services via some countries to the south but they are known for being expensive at the best of times.
Bonus fun fact: telecoms is a sanctions exception (AFAIK) and a source of hard currency income.  Probably nothing compared to oil but still.
So if they want to do this in a significant way the west could retaliate in kind, but a lot harder and longer.
 

Sorry, could not resist:

It's probably more dangerous to Russia,  as a threshold.  If there's one thing capitalist democracies do not tolerate,  it's other people ****ing with the flow of money. 

Sorry but I don't think that's up to you to allow ignorant people to spread blatant disinformation. Please don't be so supportive of other people attempts to spread it.
The RU artillery inferiority was proven and confirmed by RU months ago. Nothing to discuss here.
Tank and ATGMs were deployed to compensate for artillery weaknesses. As a result, RU is now having problems with them as well, as agent Murz noted again a few days ago:
RU arty is weak, Capt is right. Your friend is wrong. You support his lie. I will not allow this lie to spread. End of story.

Sorry, but my inner grammar Nazi won't shut up. This has been misspelled too often!
It's 'Balkenkreuz' (a cross made with beams). Not 'Balkankreuz' (which means cross of the Balkans).

Guys, there is good chance that the main party would start soon - UKR Mashovets just posted
Just in case, please bear in mind that the UKR is not fighting to breach RU defenses, but rather to attrit them enough to cause the deployment of main reserves. And, if we trust Mashovets (and I have no reason not to), RU just started doing so.
 
 
 

On a lighter note: Germany currently plays its 1000th international football match vs Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine leads 1:2, but it's still one hour to go
(flag reads: 'Thanks, now I have Leopard')
 

At least there’s only one mess the Russians have videos of, so that’s encouraging. If there were big losses in multiple sectors, I would be much more worried and the Russians would be pushing that out as fast and far as possible.

BMP-1 still has its uses. 
 
 

My summary of some more interesting points of the episode:
We are now beyond shaping operations or probes. This is the main operation, but the main effort is still unknown.  We are seeing multiple brigade lever operations in the south Operations are likely to develop over weeks or even months  We are seeing some of the main new formations being committed Directions other than the south are likely just being conducted by local formations and so are unlikely to amount to much in the big picture. The "land bridge" connecting Crimea to Russia is not as important as often talked about.  Especially in terms of military operations. Most forces resupplied directly from Russia or Crimea. There is not a lot of traffic across this "land bridge".  We must remember there was 2014-2017 when Russia had Ukraine and didn't have the Bridge yet. Long-range fires (storm shadow) It remains to be seen what is the actual impact of this capability.  With some time we are going to be getting an answer on how much giving the ATACMS would have had or not had effect. The problem is not comparable to just giving Ukraine a "longer stick" as often stated. Russia has done a lot more than just move its stockpiles and CC out of the GMLRS range. Russia is hardening potential targets and decentralization its systems. Already clear we are not seeing the "HIMARS effect" from last year. Meaning huge stockpile explosions. The effect of longer-range fires is likely going to be lots of downstream effects. Like Russia being unable to mass fires like it has before. GLSDB ammo combined with Ukraine reaching Crimea will be interesting Mike is more optimistic than before for Ukrainian success  Russia again has a chronic manpower problem The only fix, mobilization seems to be politically off the table.  Russia suffered big losses in the winter Ukraine has waited for more equipment, training, and weather and rushed things too soon. Ukraine has gotten new capabilities as well

Girkin predicts the offensive will fail.
Used chatgpt to summarise the wall of text.
Same talking points but aviation effectiveness highlighted.

Hi thread. My unit is going to be involved in training about 3 dozen Ukranian NCO´s/Officers
Long story short im friends with the base pcychologist and she has been given the task of giving them psychological training and honestly she doesnt know what to teach:
to not spoil the thread ive opened another one in the CMBS main forum page where I give a more detailed explanation and where we would really apreciate the help. Thank you in advance:
 
 

I'm here to ask you guys some for some informed help.
There have been Ukrainians training in my country for a while now, and this last cycle that just graduated, they have selected 3 dozen or so candidates to go through another X amount of extended training and turn them into NCO's/Officers.
My unit is going to be in charge of that training.
I was talking with the base psychologist, who is going to be in charge of their "psychological" training. She will be giving them half a dozen of weekly addresses, but she has been given no advice or direction on what to teach them. She has some idea of where to start (stress handling, leadership skills...etc) but apart from that, taking into account these guys are headed for an actual shooting war obviously she wants to make an actual contribution and not give them hollow TedTalks.
As people with more expertise than me, I refer to you all the question:
What sort of psychological training would you recommend she prepare given the circumstances? What topics should she cover or what sort of techniques could she teach?
Thank you in advance.
 
PS I apologize if this isn't the correct place for the post but it's the place with the most traffic at the moment and the training isn't far off, so we would appreciate the help. Again, thank you in advance.

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.
I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.
Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:
https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 
Here is the summary:
General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders  Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir. Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany) new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model") NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany  the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD  German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise.  Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge. 
 

Well this just has "it's not long now" written all over it. It also has my blood pumping to kill some Russians. I'm gonna go play some CMBS.

Yet another reason to never F w BillBinDC.  He'll have your car towed.