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poesel

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  1. Like
    poesel got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is an excellent idea and initiative! The only way to get Germany to send tanks is if everyone does it. Get a few countries to publicly state that they would send Leos if Germany allows it. Then the **** hits the fan in German inner politics, as this is the excuse by Scholz not to send them. The pro-tankers in the coalition will be all for it, and I can't see a way out of it.
     
    Easy answer: money.
    Or a bit more explicit: lesser availability with continuing demand led to higher prices, which made it economical to use sources that previous were too expensive.
  2. Like
    poesel got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's a lot of factors coming together, as others have already noted.
    There's no uncertainty about how much gas will come from Russia (0), the winter has been very mild here (with a two-week spell of cold - now we are expecting 20° on new year!) so consumption is low, new harbors for LNG have been built and last but not least the gas reservoirs are full. Current level is 88% and increasing.
  3. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's a lot of factors coming together, as others have already noted.
    There's no uncertainty about how much gas will come from Russia (0), the winter has been very mild here (with a two-week spell of cold - now we are expecting 20° on new year!) so consumption is low, new harbors for LNG have been built and last but not least the gas reservoirs are full. Current level is 88% and increasing.
  4. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's a lot of factors coming together, as others have already noted.
    There's no uncertainty about how much gas will come from Russia (0), the winter has been very mild here (with a two-week spell of cold - now we are expecting 20° on new year!) so consumption is low, new harbors for LNG have been built and last but not least the gas reservoirs are full. Current level is 88% and increasing.
  5. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is an excellent idea and initiative! The only way to get Germany to send tanks is if everyone does it. Get a few countries to publicly state that they would send Leos if Germany allows it. Then the **** hits the fan in German inner politics, as this is the excuse by Scholz not to send them. The pro-tankers in the coalition will be all for it, and I can't see a way out of it.
     
    Easy answer: money.
    Or a bit more explicit: lesser availability with continuing demand led to higher prices, which made it economical to use sources that previous were too expensive.
  6. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is an excellent idea and initiative! The only way to get Germany to send tanks is if everyone does it. Get a few countries to publicly state that they would send Leos if Germany allows it. Then the **** hits the fan in German inner politics, as this is the excuse by Scholz not to send them. The pro-tankers in the coalition will be all for it, and I can't see a way out of it.
     
    Easy answer: money.
    Or a bit more explicit: lesser availability with continuing demand led to higher prices, which made it economical to use sources that previous were too expensive.
  7. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is an excellent idea and initiative! The only way to get Germany to send tanks is if everyone does it. Get a few countries to publicly state that they would send Leos if Germany allows it. Then the **** hits the fan in German inner politics, as this is the excuse by Scholz not to send them. The pro-tankers in the coalition will be all for it, and I can't see a way out of it.
     
    Easy answer: money.
    Or a bit more explicit: lesser availability with continuing demand led to higher prices, which made it economical to use sources that previous were too expensive.
  8. Like
    poesel reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So long ago, I asked a buddy of mine who spent time 'left of the Khyber' in the 80s 'what is the main export of Afghanistan?'.  His reply: 'Wide-assed goats.'
    ...And for all the ZeroHedge CTs about 'Gold in them thar hills', that's basically the reality today. Largely owing to the sheer o'nriness of the people, who don't permit systematic prospecting still less mining infra development, there are no viable resources there for foreigners to dig up and cart away.
    Ergo, unlike Siberia (or Arabia) there's no stable income stream for local leaders to extort a handsome rake off of, in return for providing security.
    If Chinese discovered the world's largest chromite deposit or wev there tomorrow, things would change reeeeal fast, even in the Pashto heartlands.
    That was the real opp the Allies blew in A'stan, IMHO.  Or maybe there really is nothing much up there but rocks and nervous goats.
    The Himalayas are geologically frustrating for miners, with some exceptions that are small scale. The dumbed down version is, you need volcanic fissures to create large veins of ore (compare New Guinea or Chile or the Rockies) and then those veins can't get all smashed into bits later on.  Here you have India smashing into Asia (the Deccan traps are farther south), which is fine for creating gemstones but not so much for metals.  And forget hydrocarbons, except in the drainage basins.
  9. Like
    poesel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    78%. Up from average of 70-73%. Large scale attack might have helped, with increased quantity of targets?
    One of the Kyiv civs wounded is a 14 yr old girl. I always think of my little wan and how heartbroken I'd feel if she was hurt, lost a leg, etc horrible stuff. How scared that little thing must be, how shaken.
    I Also think  about how mother****ing ENRAGED I'd become. Uncompromisingly murderous to every Russian invader, no exceptions.
    So yah, there's no "just peace", there's just GTFO NOW.
  10. Like
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More trolling - UKR soldier plays on harmonica some similar to "O, mein lieber Augustin" and writing below "well, if we are Fritzs, then we will be Fritzs" (Fritzs - jokingly name of German soldiers in Red Army)
     
  11. Upvote
    poesel reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The one item that might throw a wrench in China's relationships to any former Russian territories is their treatment of the Uighur people.  The "stan's" have every reason to be highly suspicious of and likely antagonistic. For the most part the present governments acquiesce for the money, however continued attacks by China on a Muslim minority could easily lead them to become the new great satan.  China's treatment of these people has been extreme, even to the level of competing with Russian barbarity.
  12. Like
    poesel reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Worth noting that "do not have any common with Russia" has nothing to do with it. When Lenin became the new emperor of Russia - one of his first decrees was to actually not have anything in common with the evil capitalist west - so the decision was made to move to a "new calendar" - and so russians started celebrating Christmas on Jan 7th and New Year on Jan 13th. Yes it was that damn stupid - it was like Jan 12th 1918 and then Jan 13th 1919. So eventually they had to bring back Jan 1st as New Year to make things a little less retarded. But they kept Jan 13th as "Old New Year" day so nice try. And that's how Christmas after New Year came to be which is even more 'nice try'.
    So when russians finished occupying Ukraine in 1921 - they forced us to celebrate Christmas on Jan 7th, but most Ukrainians still celebrated it the right way way into the 1930s.
    So it's about restoring the Ukrainian way of celebrating Christmas.
    Also Stalin replaced Santa with a murderous frost demon in 1937 that killed people left and right instead of putting coal into the sock - but that's just a bonus to underline how messed up things were.
  13. Like
    poesel got a reaction from _Morpheus_ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    She's the head of the German parliament defense committee (Verteidigungsausschuss des Deutschen Bundestages). Also in the steering committee of her party, FDP, which is part of the current government.
    So, not just a member of parliament, but someone with a bit of influence.
  14. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    She's the head of the German parliament defense committee (Verteidigungsausschuss des Deutschen Bundestages). Also in the steering committee of her party, FDP, which is part of the current government.
    So, not just a member of parliament, but someone with a bit of influence.
  15. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't forget that Russia's economy is about the size of Canada (well, used to be). Not slight to the Canadians, but if either of them would decide to buy only Chinese electronics from now on, that wouldn't make a blip on the world market.
    The danger is more political if Russia would become a satellite of China.
     
    I'm sorry, but I instantly thought of the Judean people's front and the people's front of Judea.
     
    I didn't vote for neither and I shouldn't comment on such trollbait, but that is simply ridiculous. Next, he's responsible for bad weather or sour milk? If you haven't slept through this thread, you have read all the reasons why stuff is why it is wrt Germany.
     
  16. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't forget that Russia's economy is about the size of Canada (well, used to be). Not slight to the Canadians, but if either of them would decide to buy only Chinese electronics from now on, that wouldn't make a blip on the world market.
    The danger is more political if Russia would become a satellite of China.
     
    I'm sorry, but I instantly thought of the Judean people's front and the people's front of Judea.
     
    I didn't vote for neither and I shouldn't comment on such trollbait, but that is simply ridiculous. Next, he's responsible for bad weather or sour milk? If you haven't slept through this thread, you have read all the reasons why stuff is why it is wrt Germany.
     
  17. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 
    In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.
    Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 
    Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.
    At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 
    Damn, I have to read a week of forum )
  18. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One, German industry is not built on Russian gas. It is built on cheap energy which is often gas, which often came from Russia.
    Now we import 0% Russian gas and the industry is still working.
    Then, Russian gas was out on February 25th. That was a political decision and there is no way back. Except maybe to pay for Russian reparations to Ukraine when the war is over.
    The most convincing theory is IMO that Putin burned the bridges behind him with that. To kill any chance of disposing of him, retreating from Ukraine and buying the way out with gas.
  19. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are totally right. I glossed over this a bit. There was a contract and a need and that outweighed morals. The reasoning then was that Russia couldn't buy anything useful at this point, and it would hurt us more than them. Not our finest hour.
    When NS blew up, it was relief of some sort. If you go 'cui bono' you need to put Germany on that list, too.
    Technically, that part of NS belongs to Russia. Only the part in German waters belongs to Germany. So Russia would have to repair it. Although such things are usually done inside a bigger deal. Maybe sometime in the future, H2 from the wind farms in the country of Siberia will flow through it...
  20. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are totally right. I glossed over this a bit. There was a contract and a need and that outweighed morals. The reasoning then was that Russia couldn't buy anything useful at this point, and it would hurt us more than them. Not our finest hour.
    When NS blew up, it was relief of some sort. If you go 'cui bono' you need to put Germany on that list, too.
    Technically, that part of NS belongs to Russia. Only the part in German waters belongs to Germany. So Russia would have to repair it. Although such things are usually done inside a bigger deal. Maybe sometime in the future, H2 from the wind farms in the country of Siberia will flow through it...
  21. Like
    poesel reacted to Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For non-Americans, like myself, who haven't a clue what all those abbreviations mean, "URBAN DICTIONARY" is your solution. Easy to find, no paywall or anything, easy to use.
  22. Like
    poesel reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/zelensky-congress-speech-us-ukraine-support/672547/
    A most unpleasant might have been. To say we owe Zelensky and the Ukrainians a LOT is an understatement. Truly, some tanks and some longer range missiles are not even a tithe of what we owe them.
  23. Like
    poesel got a reaction from cyrano01 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One, German industry is not built on Russian gas. It is built on cheap energy which is often gas, which often came from Russia.
    Now we import 0% Russian gas and the industry is still working.
    Then, Russian gas was out on February 25th. That was a political decision and there is no way back. Except maybe to pay for Russian reparations to Ukraine when the war is over.
    The most convincing theory is IMO that Putin burned the bridges behind him with that. To kill any chance of disposing of him, retreating from Ukraine and buying the way out with gas.
  24. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One, German industry is not built on Russian gas. It is built on cheap energy which is often gas, which often came from Russia.
    Now we import 0% Russian gas and the industry is still working.
    Then, Russian gas was out on February 25th. That was a political decision and there is no way back. Except maybe to pay for Russian reparations to Ukraine when the war is over.
    The most convincing theory is IMO that Putin burned the bridges behind him with that. To kill any chance of disposing of him, retreating from Ukraine and buying the way out with gas.
  25. Like
    poesel got a reaction from womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One, German industry is not built on Russian gas. It is built on cheap energy which is often gas, which often came from Russia.
    Now we import 0% Russian gas and the industry is still working.
    Then, Russian gas was out on February 25th. That was a political decision and there is no way back. Except maybe to pay for Russian reparations to Ukraine when the war is over.
    The most convincing theory is IMO that Putin burned the bridges behind him with that. To kill any chance of disposing of him, retreating from Ukraine and buying the way out with gas.
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