LukeFF

Democracy. The will of the people. Elections. Ring a bell, dude?

Didn’t we note many pages back that Russia had gutted their military school houses?  And here is why that is a last gasp of a professional military - any specialists are sitting in a classroom teaching themselves from a textbook right now because the training staff are dead in a field near Kherson.

DefMon, who is always very conservative with his assessments, smells something brewing around Lyman

Belarus is a vassal of a big empire adding those 10 mil to the total pool. That's a flawed argument.
If it was just Belarus invading Ukraine - the outcome would've been predictable... and faster.
Those few 10 million pop countries will also be hating each other's guts and that works wonders. See Israel's neighbors.
And make no mistake - we are going to be the new Israel here. And we won't be in NATO exactly for that reason, let's be realistic.
We will be getting that regardless, Russia will never stop, except having a whole empire is much worse because otherwise at least it will be state sponsored terrorism akin to that of DPRK instead of akin to that of huge empire. Much more manageable. Any Ukrainian that cares - understands that it's a permanent war from here on. And fighting broken up pieces of empire is a lot easier, historical facts.
No, just literally what I said. If it so happens that remnants of Russia will be too busy dealing with their own breakup crisis (whatever it may be, e. g. food) - it will prevent them from killing their neighbors. And that's a huge win.
No it won't. There's nothing to fall into anarchy over. There are a bunch of territories occupied by Russia. No Russia = no occupation. Simple as that. In this whole region of planet Earth Russia alone generates 100% of all problems.
Keeping a warmongering empire alive - is the worst possible thing that can ever be.
It's equal to keeping Germany post-WWI alive. Empires do not take lightly to being beaten.

Because a 140 mln empire attacking a smaller country is much more dangerous than a 10 mln region attacking a full-fledged country it has 0 chance of ever occupying, while also being busy fighting other neighbors.
Or maybe, being so small and broken up, they will be too busy dying from hunger to even care about attacking someone.
I'd take a risk of unknown over a guarantee of known any day - because Russia coming back for revenge is absolutely, 100%, guaranteed. It's set in stone. It's been like that for 300 years and nothing ever changes. And this time it will be Russia that learned its mistakes.
Russia not being there also means other countries all around them get a chance at being free. Or are you telling me it's OK for Moldova and Georgia to keep suffering after 30 years of it - because an illusion of "business as usual" is more important?

Russians, that just "removed putin and his circle" will never agree to prosecuting their own or, god forbid, paying back for crimes. Did they pay back much of lend-lease that saved them?
And yes - Russia will start another war. Because putin is not the problem. Russia is the problem.
When USSR fell - Russia immediately started not one, not two, but three wars of aggression (Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan) to cut the disintegration short - that West oh so conveniently turned the blind eye on. Russia cannot exist without wars because wars make its people glued together. Losing a war and then not starting any new ones for long enough leads to disintegration - and this no "diplomatically switched" russian government will ever have.
Russia must cease to exist if you don't want new, barbaric wars in this region.
Or are you telling me next guys will ever agree to remove russian troops not only from Ukraine, but from Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan, which they still occupy - and pay reparations to 4 countries at once? Or even to Armenia, a parliament of which was brutally murdered by russian spetsnaz back in 1999 (when there was no putin yet)?

Someone asked if the AAA Geprdas are participating in the fighting on the front lines. Here is the video proof.
Apparently, they cover the dead zones of the Osa air defense system. The Osa has a 1.5 km dead zone in which it cannot hit targets. The Osa hits long range targets while the Geprdas takes over close range coverage.

The Professional Russian Army.
 

Regarding broadcasting the truth to RU population (and conduction Psy-Info-Ops) there are set of issues.
First, imagine you have a flat earthers cult that kills anyone who says earth is not flat. They are conditioned to believe in a flat earth by years of constant indoctrination from childhood. It starts at school. It is unwise to expect that simple facts will undo it in days or even weeks. 
Second, you are trying to convince people that they are evil murderers because they kill innocent people for the lie about earth. That's not something they are eager to accept at all. I mean inside they can believe you are right. Publicly they will still act as if nothing has changed.  
Third, the required linguistic skill level for effective PsyOp communication is too high. It is much higher than what is normally required and as such Western Intel orgs rarely have it. For example, I monitor UK MOD Telegram channel in RU. Their RU linguists are good. Like really good. But even they still fall a little tiny bit short compared to native speakers. Unfortunately, it makes their message somewhat awkward, less serious and significantly less effective. Their messages will not establish trusts required for successful PsyOps.
Fourth, which is continuation of third - even if you have required linguistic skill (Ukrainians have it) you still need to have knowledge of the enemy minds on level that even Ukrainians do not have. Ukraine is different country with different culture. With all their knowledge of RU they still struggle to craft effective message to RU population and have hard time finding psychological weak spots that can be exploited. Effective anti-RU PsyOps are unbelievably hard even for Ukranians.
But all is not lost. I like most of Steve suggestions above - limited and targeted PsyOps aimed at driving wedge where cracks already exist will work regardless of other shortcomings. For example, Western articles that Ultranationalists not liberals are threat to Putin got RU Nats very worried. Simple western media articles managed to get under RU Nat skins. Imagine what a persistent campaign would do. 

A T-90M sighting.
 

The video of Rubizhe defense time - UKR BTR-3E1 of National Guard (likely 4th Rapid reactin operative brigade) fires at the enemy tank, hiding behind the corner of building
 
 

What part of "work has also started on a module for Cold War" equals "haven't been doing ANY work"?

Good to see this messaging is ongoing (been repeated over several days) and at the highest levels of state.
 

Rybar posted a new update. And it is very interesting. He confirmed what we talked about previously
UKR made successful attack toward Karpivka-Redkodub-Nove breaking through RU defenses [22/23-Sept] RU counter attacked re-capturing Karpivka and Nove [24-Sept] UKR left a force at Redkodub to defend against RU counter attack [24-Sept] But the large UKR mech force is moving North toward Borove-Svatove highway [24-Sept]
But the most interesting part is:
While I am not sure how capture of Borove-Svatove highway can affect RU units at Lyman, the whole situation smells like something we saw very recently. Do not want to hype but...
P.S. I do have one idea about the importance of the highway

What's if road Lyman-Kremina is already cut by UKR forces or at least very dangerous to use by supply columns? UKR forces have been in the area for a sufficiently long time. In this case Lyman area is quietly supplied directly from Svatove. We know there is RU path through Nove-Makiivka-Svatove Also, there should be a path from Borove-Svatove highway down to Lyman as well. UKR already cut path at Nove  If UKR move to the highway they can cut path through highway.

UKR claimed for today 4 Russian jets - 2 Su-25, Su-30SM and Su-34
SU-30SM (though Russians claimed this is just compressor surge)
As if Su-34, downed with Igla MANPAD, by SOF operator
Bad quality video, but it's claimed Ka-52 shot down
Partially such high losses are confirmed by Russian Fighterbomber TG channel: "Fu...g day"

And this:  "Attention, the question to trouser-stripe-holders [meant "generals"], where we will mobiulize jets if all go on as today?"

Just HIMARS. Or how it called in Ukraine "Сhimera"
 

Those, who don't look at T-55 name, but at what inside the tank, say this is perfect tank, especially its gun with full digital FCS and APFSDS rounds, which have better penetration, than 125 mm Mango. I think, theese tanks can be placed to some air-assault or marines brigade either as "line tanks" or like "infantry support tank"  

Of course Ukraine isn't a part of NATO - but if the West, as you say, pushes for giving territories to Russia in exchange for no nuclear attack - then it's a huge signal it's OK for the West to give away Baltics too. And why not? I mean "Russia will just occupy Ukraine and then they will be happy and stop. After all they just want their 'slavic union' and that's it." quickly transforms into "Russia will just occupy Baltics and then they will stop. After all USSR borders is all they want. So why not sacrifice 5% of EU to save 95%?" - once Russia threatens everyone with a nuclear holocaust over some "minor" Eastern Euro territories. It's like negotiating with terrorists instead of killing them: if nuclear threat works once - it will work ALWAYS. And then it's the end of NATO.
And afterwards what exactly will China lose? Nothing. After all no nuclear war happens. "Taiwan is just an island in the middle of nowhere, it's not like China will not keep trading with us. So your NVidia's GPU label will say "made in China" and not "made in Taiwan" - who cares? We made sure you aren't dying to radiation - be grateful for that"
And then you have DPRK. "One nuclear weapon is enough to open pandora's box. So maybe South Korea will find a way out on their own?"
Oh and you need not worry about DPRK not having enough nuclear weapons. They all get theirs from Russia anyway.

First appearance of the BM Oplot-M in Ukraine since the war started. As far as I know, only three were built and are in Ukraine, so it is a true unicorn. Next to it is a T-64BM2, characterised by the ladder on its rear mudguard and slat armour around the engine, as well as I think another Oplot-M.

Together they are the most advanced Ukrainian-built tanks in service.
 

You can clearly tell evil tyrant putin forced these poor people to support the brutal murders of Ukrainians. Only putin is evil, russians are of course good and shouldn't be held collectively responsible because "racism".

No. His attempt to represent even not agreement, but just draft of agremment in Stambul in March caused VERY angry reaction in society. And this was just one month of war. Russian troops stood near Kyiv, there was no HIMARSes, HARMs and many other toys, all was too uncetain, but the will of nation was clear - no any "freezing of Crimea question for 15 years". Our victory condition - borders of 2014. 
Now all - Zelenskiy, Reznikov. Daniliov - they consider after Russian will get several heavy punches and UKR turned back on the Feb 24 borders, then Russian will be forced to negotiations to return Donbas and Crimea in diplomacy way. But if no, they all ready to do it by military force. 
Zaluzhnyi in one of interviews several months ago told AFU have objectives - to the end of the year to enter in Northern Cremea. Of course this plans assumed more fast western heavy weapon arriving in big number, but this is not happened in proper quantity. But here is just a fact, UKR will not hasitate to cross "red lines" or not.    

You aren't concerned with three NATO and EU members not giving the right to vote to people who hate the country they live in - so it will be fine.
Just as it is in e.g. Lithuania - people who want to vote for Russia - may go and vote in Russia - and don't come back. Or stfu and get in line if they want to live in said country.
Some seem to be confusing "separatism" (e.g. some ethnic group wanting to be free and independent from the current country) with treason (trying to help another country occupy theirs).

Had the West told Russia to get the hell out of Ukraine, and backed up Ukraine in 2014, in hindsight, this whole freaking conflict could have never occurred. 
Instead, we sat back on the sidelines, let Russia think it could do what it wanted in Ukraine, and prolonged a conflict that today we see the shameful results of Western inaction where in 2022, Russia thought it had the ability to swallow one of the largest European states without regard for international outcry. 
The initial aggression by Russia was in Ukraine in 2014. Instead of actually slamming the brakes shut, we let two puppet republics entrench themselves in the Donbas and Putin enjoy the fruits of his Crimean seizure. Had we actually cared about the principles of territorial integrity, those republics should have been ended via force of arms and for its trouble of promoting the uprising and filling the ranks of the separatists with men and equipment, Russia should have gotten back the body bags containing Girkin and the rest of those "separatists" to be buried in Russia. Instead, now cannon fodder Russian citizens are about to join their fellow cannon fodder of the republics to give their lives wholesale simply for Putin to try and hold some part of Ukraine forevermore.
Why Ukraine must be made whole boils down that this conflict started in 2014, in Crimea and Donbas, and Russia has used them to be a cancer on Ukraine and its people, nearly killing both a few months ago. (please, let us not get caught up in me referring to Russia and the republics as a cancer considering Putin, who's power only grew more and more since 2014, is currently prepping to pile the bodies of poor Russians in a bid to choke Ukraine in Russian blood)
It does not sit right with me we "need" to acknowledge these 8 year old conquests as deserving a special place and special consideration (nuclear red line or any other red line or any division between 2014 and 2022 borders) when the West refused to acknowledge Soviet legitimacy over the Baltic states for 51 years until they finally restored themselves in 1991. 
I mean, imagine a scenario where Ukraine does not get to the February 2022 borders (still quite possible), is there a imagery 8 year timer before Russia gets to lump them together with the republics and Crimea and tell Ukraine "this is ours now"? and the West needs to caution Ukraine to not rock the boat, or we get nuked? Can we not make the connections between the West's collective actions since 2014 to now, and not recognize the pattern of accommodation of Putin and Russia that has led to this invasion, this outright attempt to place a country of 44 million under Russian boots? With such disdain towards the UN that they barely bothered to set up the pretexts needed to invade (no apartment bombings here...), where they probably spent more time making sure that all the missiles they fired after Putin's speech declaring war did so while the UN Security Council meeting was ongoing.
I mean look at Azov, they spent years calling them war criminals, nazis, people who tortured the Russian speakers of the Donbas, touted their crimes, pledged to have their heads, to bring holy justice on these Nazis....and Putin ****ing sends  Denys Prokopenko and co to Turkey with barely a acknowledgement to the criticism and outcry of outraged Russians. 
A tower of lies and slander promising only righteous death to true enemies of the Russian people and it just tumbled to the ground like nothing. I'm not promising Crimea will be the same, I'm just saying we don't need to bring up nukes every time someone suggests landing some troops on a Crimean beachhead or entering the pre-war borders of the LNR and DPR or that Crimean Russians will shoot from every open window, I'm saying there is a context to Russia and Ukraine and the West, it began in 2014, and I may be bold in saying, acting like the West can be good and happy for helping Ukraine get to the 2022 borders, no, that is not enough, 2014, restoring the complete territorial integrity of a state is still something the West can do today. 
(im preempting any nuclear escalation comment by noting its only been 8 years, are you really saying Russia gets to wave a nuke to keep non-internationally recognized territory by waiting only 8 years? Sorry there's nothing deeculatory about that.)

This one I am gonna have to say no way on.  Armed insurrection against their own government eliminates their right to expect the same freedoms enjoyed by other Ukrainian citizens.  They have crossed the line to sedition and criminal acts. How the Ukrainian gov't deals with this is their decision but I don't see an argument that these folks can just lay down their arms and immediately have all the same rights as the people who paid such an awful price for this war.

If we mean what we stand for then this isn't about what we want, it is about what the populations within those regions want - we cannot go back-sies on democracy because we don't like the result. 
And now we get down to it. What is democracy? What is a "region" with a right of secession? What is a "population"? What is the franchise? We get into gerrymandering discussions here.
To take the case of Northern Ireland. What gave the six counties the right to secede from the rest of Ireland? (in reality it was military power through the gun running to Larne and the British Army mutiny in the Curragh). But what is the franchise? Whole of UK (which would have lost)? Whole of Ireland (which would have lost)? Whole of Ulster (which would have lost)? On a county by county basis (which would have shown four counties in favor of secession)? So what we ended up with was four Protestant counties and two subject Catholic counties making a six county statelet which was (just about) large enough to be viable and with a (then) inbuilt 66/33 Protestant majority. i.e. it was an entirely illegitimate project.
So when we move to Ukraine. What was the mandate behind Donetsk or Luhansk having any legitimacy as a separatist region? There is none. The majority of the population in both oblasts wanted to stay in Ukraine. There was no problem until Russia sent it in agents provocateurs to stir up trouble because they could not accept being defeated in the Maidan. So I do not see that Donetsk, Luhansk or Crimea have any legitimate right to secede. And when you add to the fact that the Russians have engaged in ethnic cleansing to clear out the Tartars and plant Russians in Ukraine to generate an artificial majority, the fact that the pro Ukrainian parts of the population fled from Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea how do we say we can have a fair poll today. Like take Crimea, do Russian settlers who moved in get a vote because they live there now? And the family who's house they live in who are refugees in Kiev don't get a vote?
No.
This is not a question of pseudo independence referenda (and why would Ukraine subject to this if Russia is not going to allow Buriyta and Chechnya and other regions secede). Yes, if people in Donbas want to have Russian language rights and the right to send members of Parliament to Kiev they should (after a period of weeding out traitors who should lose their Ukrainian citizenship).
 
You have some places like Scotland for example which entered a voluntary union with England in 1707 or whatever and therefore can have a natural justice right to undo that (it is still a separate country with a separate legal system). Greenland is hundreds of miles from Denmark. And even there whether they have a right to secede or not is an open question. But what gives the Donbas the right to secede from Ukraine? To my mind, nothing. And sorry, regardless what the current quisling "government" there says or the remains of the population that currently inhabit that place.
 
Have they a right to citizenship in Ukraine or to leave peacefully to Russia? Yes. Have they the right to live in peace? Absolutely. The right to raise their kids in Russian language schools? 100%. Have they the right to declare themselves independent of Ukraine and ask Russia for "protection"? Hell no.