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LukeFF

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  1. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Seminole in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You’re doing that thing again wherein you conflate the interventionist/neocon foreign policy advocates with the whole of the U.S., as though opposition to their constant finding of new wars for America to be involved in is itself ‘anti-American’.  
  2. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Haiduk in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    Export only model.
    Combined developmnet of Ukraine and Belgium for export. 
    M113 or any armored car is not a starship. Western artillery systems also were properly mastered very quickly  
  3. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Visegrad24 conveniently forgot to mention a few minor details...
  4. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Halmbarte in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "they did a massive and honest assessment"
    Who got to tell Stalin the outcome & how long did they live afterwards? 
    "Soviets adopted an incredibly well thought out defense-in-depth strategy"
    The incredibly well thought out strategy of multiple massive counter attacks against a superior opponent that resulted in the death or capture of millions of soldiers? 
    H
     
     
  5. Thanks
    LukeFF reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, the guy, who shot, ordered him: "Charge yourself and shoot back!", after this frightened guy slowly took the rifle and tried to shoot over blindage, but shooter changed own mind and ordered "No! Give me your rifle!"
    About that guy was really scared wrote the cameramen callsign Predator. His account on TikTok, was banned for this video. But this is usual situation for UKR army since 2014. Those, who fear and havn't a will to fight mostly sit in the shelter and reload the weapon.
    This is similar to fire tactic of Ukrainian/Zaporozian cossacks in 17 century. Unlike popular stereotype with top-naked horsmen with sabres, cossacks indeed were disciplined infantry or mounted infantry, which were trained to maintain high rate of fire, not using counter-marches and other western tactical thigns. Just in first rows stood experienced warriors and back rows occupied young men or not-experienced cossacks, but which were propely trained for fast reload. And they often had additiaonal number of muskets. First rows after shooting gave own muskets to back rows and received already charged from them. And this repeated after each shoot.  
  6. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to CarlXII in Annual look at the year to come - 2023   
    Dissapointed ! 😖
  7. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to SgtHatred in Annual look at the year to come - 2023   
    Uhhhh, ok. This looks a lot like last year's update with the year iterated by one.
     
     
  8. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Vet 0369 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ah, this observation brings back very fond memories in the USMCR of when I was the Section Leader of a 60mm mortar section that was attached to a Reinforced Rifle Platoon in the mid to late 1970s. Our mortar teems were so good that the gunners were capable of just jamming the ball on the bottom of the tube into the ground during a “hasty” fire, and then firing and adjusting the rounds by “Kentucky windage. “They were however highly-trained Marines.
    We never understood why the Army looked down on “60s” with distain. They are perfect for rapid support of aggressive, fast-moving Infantry. Being embedded with the Rifle Platoon, although we were subordinate to the Company Weapons Platoon, the Rifle Platoon Commander could get permission to use os as a base of fire during an assault. That functionality is priceless to the “Grunts.”
  9. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, which country actually has the same borders today as 100 years ago? If you go by that half of this thread, the one frequently doing historical comparisons is pointless. No country won WW2 all by itself and I don't think anyone said so. But it is a historical fact that the Soviet Union played a very major part in the Allied victory. By extension, since the Russian population made up roughly 60% of the Soviet Union, a large part of the credit goes to Russia. Denying that is a kind of historic revisionism that may be politically convenient right now but is factually wrong. Moreover, the tide was turned near at Moscow, Leningrad and Stalingrad, which, when last I took a look on the map was Russian proper not Ukrainian or Lithuanian or Kazakh or whatever. If pointing out that makes one pro-Putin then I think this thread is dead for all intents and purposes because then I can just as well go into any other echo chamber on the internet.
    Btw. that wasn't even what @Seedorf81said. He just said that this is what Russians think and that is what influences their will to go on.
  10. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Grimtechnique in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @chuckdyke seriously your behaviour is wild. Accusing others of holding putin sentiments for stating what is well regarded as historical orthodoxy in regards to the russian will to keep on fighting despite horrendous losses i think actually should garner some warning from the admins here.
    You are poisoning the well imo and should probably take some time to chill out before posting again.
  11. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This seriously gets ridiculous. So now everyone who isn't firmly in the "Russia sux, lol, Ukraine has already won" camp is pro Putin? Really?
  12. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    To say they achieved "nothing", is historically inaccurate.
    And do you think that the Russians think that?
    It was about their mindset on why not giving up, so I do not see the relevance of your post, TBH.
     
  13. Like
    LukeFF reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/
    SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink internet for drones -company president
     
  14. Like
    LukeFF reacted to Rokko in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Potentially noteworthy, 30th Mech apparently in action north of Bakhmut. Maybe it's old news but I've personally not seen this brigade mentioned in recent weeks, so it was possibly sent to reinforce this sector.
  15. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is, btw, what I meant earlier by "absurd" responses.
    You took what I said and immediately stretched it out to the most extreme BS possible, comparing it to moon landing conspiracy-thinking and eventually being more forward in calling it "crackpot." So, quite plainly, everybody who doesn't agree with you is a crackpot, right? They're all just a bunch of dummies, right? And then I sit here and have people coming out of the woodwork telling me I'm the one being snide...? 
    Do you have Russia's battleplans in your lap? Do you have a microphone into their war room? Did you wiretap their red telephones? Where do these certainties even come from? Think tanks? Two seconds ago you said you got into it with a Marine over WMDs in Iraq. Should I unfurl a giant scroll of think tanks who said there were totally WMDs in Iraq? Because I bet that Marine sure did. You argument boils down to you "know" what Putin is thinking, and what he's thinking is really stupid, therefore Putin is really stupid and Russia is totally borked. Man, I totally get that from an emotional standpoint. But from a logical one, nobody who "studies warfare" should ever say anything is a certainty when it comes to an outcome of an ongoing war.
  16. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I mean the explanation is quite simple: they tried to “Georgia” Ukraine and overthrow the government. They did not come into Ukraine with the goal of conquering it. At some point you have to accept this perspective for the rest of the arguments to make sense. Obviously, if you perceive the invasion to be one of conquest then it looks extra bad with a side of r-worded sprinkled on top. What I saw were Russians parked outside of Kiev, confused that the Ukrainians were, in fact, firing back on them. When the order came in to retreat, it was a rout. Total mess. Even in Georgia, Russians showed some cohesion issues so going backwards in Ukraine, and at that number, proved quite a comedy.
    I do not hold Russian military command in any high regard, but I think even the Russians would know that 40,000 men is not enough to conquer a capital city like Kiev. It’s not a “feint”, necessarily, but a scare tactic that fell right on its face. The fact this was Russia’s “plan” to begin with is in and of itself an indictment of their military thinking. The fact they didn’t even have a backup plan, or an exit ramp of any kind, definitely gasts my flabber. Rather strangely, and I guess this is where you very likely struggle to give credit where it’s due, Putin was smart to listen to his generals and actually pullback. Multiple areas faced encirclement and massive loss. Unlike Stalin in ’41, who ignored Zhukov about (coincidentally) Kiev and in fact demoted the general, Putin submitted to reality and gave up the territories to preserve his army.
    Russia humiliated itself in its retreats. That much is obvious. But that was then, and this is now. The war Russia was looking to “fight” in 2022 is not the far it is going to fight in 2023. Holding onto victories of yore does little. You actually kind of make the argument in your preamble there. Russia simply has vastly more industrial capacity and manpower than Ukraine. That’s really all there is to it. I think if Ukraine weren't fighting a democratic nation, then it could bleed their way to victory, but they're not. They're fighting Russia. And if Ukraine wants to engage in a long war, then Russia will oblige and Ukraine will pay for it dearly. This is why I think Ukraine should have sued for peace after the counter-offenses. All that initiative has been lost and now the Russians are creeping forward again and we don’t know exactly what their plans are now. I mean this is the part where also significant disagreements arise: I'm looking at 2023 trying to figure out what new things Russia's going to do. They're clearly planning something, and they're clearly not going away. Others are looking at 2023 like it's just going to be 2022 all over again, as if the Russians are just too dumb to learn and adapt. As I mentioned elsewhere as well, Russia now has had 1-full year to adjust its industries on a war footing. I don't think people really understand what that means while they debate and pull their hair out about a battalion or few of Leopards and Abrams.
  17. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I’m always fascinated whenever I run into people who vomit links and graphs and numbers without even understanding what they mean. You have my thanks for posting those graphs, even if you and apparently a lot of other people do not grasp what they actually mean. I can simplify it for you, though. If you look at the economic metrics of Russia in 2014 and on, you might notice they continue into 2015, 2016, etc. This is called a crisis.
    For reference, I suggest dialing back your google searches to 2014 to understand how obvious and apparent this was quite literally immediately. Remember, Russia annexed Crimea in March. By April, that is 1-month later, IMF was already ringing alarm bells and claiming Russia to be in a recession:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-27221345
     
    Note, the financial crisis itself hadn’t even set its teeth in yet. That would be another half-year away as the ruble plummeted in value and investors started abandoning ship at great speed heading into 2015. This is why those graphs show a horror show straight running into and through 2016. Keep that in mind: 2014, 2015, 2016, absolute nosedive.
     
     
    Now let’s look at today.
    https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/01/russias-economy-is-now-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-germanys-and-britains-in-2023-how-is-that-possible/
     
    Pray tell, did you see such forecasts in 2015? In the same way Russians mistakenly thought Zelensky would flee and Kiev would fold, the West mistakenly thought Russia’s economy would buckle. Note, the sanctions in 2014 were small-ball. The sanctions in 2022 are the veritable decoupling of Russia from the entire West. Do I have to explain the gulf of difference there in terms of severity? Do I need an additional 1,000 words to explain the STARK difference between the resultant two data sets that unfolded after? Feel free to let me know.
    The rest about lost territories is embarrassing. I grow tired of the propagandized sides of this conflict who fail to see reality for what it is. Losing 1/5th your territory is not to be taken lightly. I just don't really understand what mindset is required to be so cavalier in dismissing that. As for resources: Russia is an oil-state. Its economy is entirely centered around its natural resources, but we're going to sit here and pretend it carving itself access to a shale reserve and natural gas deposits is definitely not in their objective sets. Alright. Whatever. The fact people subsequent to this post make points about Russia losing access to foreign experts still, truly, do not at all grasp what is going on. The global oil market was shunted and shifted and yet people are not recalibrating their thinking at all. 
  18. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Seminole in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think everyone agrees 'Ukraine can't win'.
    What most everyone is wondering, is how much help from the West will it take for Ukraine to win, and whether/when they're going to get it.
    Is there an escalation that Russia has available that gets the West to not provide the requisite support?
    Can that 'escalation' take the form of greater strategic patience?
    I don't pretend to know.
    I was in the crowd that thought Putin's Feb. build up was going to extract some concessions toward the Minsk agreements, because it was hard to calculate how a full scale war was worth the cost.  Made me remember I don't know what value the enemy puts on all the variables of this 'Drake's equation' of whether it is worth it to go to war.
  19. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Simcoe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Glad that someone is speaking facts in this thread. If the Russians were as weak as they are made out to be here then Ukraine would be liberated by now.
    I want Ukraine to be liberated like everyone else but some of the propaganda here is rediculous.
  20. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Saddam fought one vs. Iran for years. Then got wiped out by the West. Then got sanctioned. Then virtually lost his northern territories to the Kurds. Modern nation states have vast resources and are not easily broken. People on this board who know the world wars should understand this very well when you see the depths to which countries like Germany, Russia, and Japan went. I don't see Russian civilians dying. I don't see Russian cities getting bombed. Russian factories are untouched. We're talking about intangible economic strain via pressure on consumer goods. The slack was picked up elsewhere.
     
     
    Saddam suffered far worse than Russia right now and he survived. He didn't collapse, either. Americans kicked his door in and hanged him. That was that. It's actually the main reason I drew up Saddam in the first place -- he didn't just face sanctions, he faced the physical dismantling of his army and severe losses of prestige.
    Also, a full up Western anything is not the West, btw. Don't get it twisted on how armies fight and win. If you swapped the American military tech with Russia's, USA would still demolish the Russkies because things like training, discipline, communication, cohesion, etc. matter far more than tech specs. Putting Western tech in someone's hands hasn't been a magic bullet. Ever.
  21. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Full effects in 2014 were readily apparent. Now that anti-Russian rhetoric is insanely high to the point people are deploying scientific racism, you're not going to find very many straight shooters on the subject. If you're running into weasel words and the like for 2022/2023, it means it's not working as intended. The reality is Russia learned from 2014 and has positioned safeguards against another version of it. I mean the sanctions right now from the West make 2014 look like a little firecracker so the fact there's any discussion at all is a very bad sign. And I'm not sure how you pressure anyone to do anything. India and China are not going to blink. BRICS smell blood in the water. OPEC nations already sided with Russia. The USA can't endanger its relationship with USD/oil. Most other nations were subjugated by Europeans and these nations love watching the Euros suicide their economies. Most are not going to give up economic benefits on account of some Euro war that has nothing to do with them. Would you be fine eating economic bullets on account of Somalis/Ethiopians? Didn't think so. This is why I have become greatly concerned that people are attaching so much national prestige to the winning of this war. You leave yourself two options when you start losing: ratchet up the intensity (risk WWIII), or you step back and take a big splattering of egg on the face and lose a ton of credibility. This applies to the other side as well. The more Russia dumps into the conflict, the less likely they are to negotiate. Wise statesmen and observers were calling for peace negotiations when that initial thrust got turned back. Now it looks like Russians are going on the offensive and the ball is in their hands again.
     
    Also, just look at the long game for a moment. Russia is run by a dictator. Remember Iraq? Sanctioned, starved, and bombed. Even a defanged Saddam Hussein managed to keep power despite all those pressures and being in a terribly weak position. So long as Putin exists, Russia can and will outlast the democratic West. A dictator can make his people suffer as much as he wants them to. You can't get that out of the West when people start protesting and demanding peace. 
  22. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to FlemFire in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So it's a conclusion. Other people have other conclusions.
    In your own words, you "took a stab" at it and you "think" Putin presumes xyz. This is called speculating. I don't see the controversy in saying we actually do not fully grasp Russia's internal thinking or that their army/intel ops are so superficial that grognards on the internet can plot it out by opening a newspaper or putting an ear to a think tank. I brought up George Kennan earlier. He was the preeminent source on all-things Russia for the Cold War, but even he himself ultimately concluded you can never really know a foreign nation's thinking or what they intend. There are entire schools of international relations quite literally built upon this unfortunate reality. Are we going to seriously imply the likes of Morgenthau, Waltz, Niebuhr, Thompson, Carr etc. were just wasting their time, and we can in fact just divine a country's intentions that easily and thus there is no need for all this gamesmanship? I mean, make your argument, fine. Maybe you're right. The point is "maybe," and I don't think I deserve chastisement cause you to talk as if you have spies in Putin's inner circle and listen in on what those goons are up to because I know for an actual fact you do not nor do any think tanks nor do any YouTube bloggers. BTW, this goes the same in the other direction. Someone brought up I think MacGregor who routinely makes claims with 100% certainty. It's all the same basic fact: none of us are in those rooms, whether it is with Zelensky, Putin, Biden, etc. This is all speculative and tearing me a new one for participating from a different angle is absolutely unfair.
  23. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Seminole in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If you hand over a loaded gun and the recipient shoots someone, you can find yourself considered to be an accessory.
    In fairness, it does matter whether the 'Kremlin numbnuts' think it is war, because it affects their response.
    A legal/political determination in the West that we're not really at war won't stop incoming rounds.
    After all, if we didn't think what they thought mattered, why does the West show any restraint?
    “It started with the Germans saying they were willing to send helmets, because they wouldn’t send lethal tools into the war since that would mean participation in it. This is where we started,” Orban said. “Now, we’re at battle tanks, and they’re already talking about planes.”
     
    Orban said Friday that Hungary getting drawn into the war in Ukraine “is out of the question as long as I am prime minister” but he thinks it is too late for other countries in Europe.
    “The others are not only in danger, they have already been swept away,” he said. “If you send weapons, if you finance the entire annual budget of one of the belligerents, if you promise more and more weapons, more and more modern weapons, then you can say whatever you want. No matter what you say, you are in the war.”
  24. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Seminole in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How was it taken out of context?
    It may well be undiplomatic, ill-considered, and fraught with implications, but it isn't out of context.
    One doesn't need to love the Kremlin to observe that arming and training belligerents gets you closer and closer to being a belligerent.
    If someone observes the USS Greer operating the Black Sea we can get really concerned.
  25. Upvote
    LukeFF reacted to Seminole in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Baerbock's comments played right into Russia's position that they are in a proxy war with the West which was triggered by decades of NATO expansion to their doorstep, vs. the West's position that they're simply supporting Ukraine against an unprovoked invasion.
    Of note, on Wednesday, Washington announced that it would send more than 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev, while Berlin committed to a dozen Leopard II panzers, while encouraging Poland and other EU and NATO members to provide similar support. France, meanwhile, is "continuing our analysis" of the proposal to send tanks to Ukraine, after already promising several AMX-10 "light tanks" earlier this month.
    NATO members France and Croatia have explicitly refuted Baerbock.
    "We are not at war with Russia and none of our partners are," said French ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre on Thursday, per AFP. "The delivery of military equipment… does not constitute co-belligerence."
    Anne-Claire Legendre
    Croatian President Zoran Milanovic called Baerbock's comments "madness."
    "Now the German foreign minister says we must be united, because I quote, we are at war with Russia. I didn’t know that," he said, adding "Maybe Germany is at war with Russia, but then, good luck, maybe this time it turns out better than 70-odd years ago."
    Zoran Milanović
    "If we are at war with Russia, then let’s see what we need to do. But we won’t ask Germany for its opinion," Milanovic asserted. "Let them figure out who is the actual chancellor over there. I’ve been in politics for a long time, and our country has been through a lot, but I’ve never seen this kind of madness before," he continued.
    "Do you want us to enter the war?" he asked during a visit to the port city of Split, adding that Croatia "should in no way help" Ukraine militarily, Summit News reports.
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