rocketman

I don’t think it is nearly as cut and dry as the average person thinks.  There are upsides to a stalemate at this point.  To be totally brutal an endstate where both sides can claim victory (and defeat) often makes for the best outcome.  Ukraine is still a free nation, our support ensured they stood up against an illegal invasion and largely repelled it when there should have been no chance of that success.  
Russia and Putin can claim victory as they took an additional 7% of Ukraine at an eye-watering cost.  But this will likely keep ol Flat Face in power for a few more years before Time does its thing for us all.  This avoids a Russian free fall experience, and we get the added bonus of Europe buying our oil and gas (or alternatives) while we righteously continue to isolate Russia -this is why it won’t matter who is in the White House post-war. 
A lose-lose starts to look like a win-win.  US administration can point to all the upsides going into ‘24, plus we are looking at Armageddon in the Middle East which keeps the Bible Belt focused elsewhere.  We hopefully do a whole bunch of reconstruction in Ukraine and go all South Korea on the place.  Russia continues as downward spiral but slowly enough they don’t start WW3.  And we can all focus on China as the next big threat worthy of trillions in defence spending on bloated military capabilities that probably won’t work.
So you see, a stalemate is not the end of the world.  In fact I would not be surprised if in some circles they are kinda pushing for it.  The total and utter crushing of Russia has some serious risks.  This outcome sidesteps a lot of them.  Now everyone is both happy and unhappy.  Sometimes no decision is the best decision.
I for one am not convinced we are there yet, but we definitely can see it from here.

A bit more complicated but the sentiment is not entirely off.  We did an exercise about 10 years back trying to figure out all the components of military value.  In the end it looked like the Drake Equation, which was scary enough and then some egghead pointed out that some components were non-linear over time.  Over all military value is a pretty complex beast with all sorts of tangible and intangible elements.
So when considering something like a new platform one has to try and consider its value as a delta V to an overall system.  How is X giving an entire system an advantage to an opponents comparative opposing system.  So infantry in battle suits is not simply “how much does the suit cost versus the things that can kill it” it is “how does the system create effects advantage”.  Cost becomes an attritional factor but is offset by advantage.  
So beating up on the poor tank.  It isn’t the fact that cheap ATGMs or UAS can kill them that is driving their value down.  It is the fact that ATGMs and UAS are killing them before the tank can deliver its military value on the battlefield.  If tanks could survive long enough to create operational tempo and manoeuvre then we would not be having this conversation, even if we were looking at the same loss rates.  It is the fact we are seeing the loss rates without the tank being able to deliver value.  That is what is killing the tank.  Making it worse is the cost factor and those tanks being eliminated by incredibly cheap systems compared to the cost of the tank.
So if armoured infantry in battle suits can live long enough to create effect, force decision and sustain options then they have value that far outweighs strips cost.  Of course there is a threshold for this, we see that in WW2 Germany.  The Tiger was brilliant but far too costly to sustain even with the effects it could deliver.  The Tiger 2 is like modern tanks.  The damn things were very expensive and most could not even get to the start line.
So is a military capability below a cost sustainment threshold?  And does it deliver value for that costs?  When and where that value happens is also incredibly important.  In reality it is very complex - let alone when you factor in historical and cultural value.  There is a Perun video (if he hasn’t already done one, that guy has to be in FD somewhere).

Mass.is.broken.

More Avdiivka insanity (Oct. 10):
 

Ukrainian drone pilot destroys a Russian tank from 22 km distance (18 from frontline).
The tweet also states, that Russia has imposed a 10 km no-tank zone from the front.
 

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/povernys-zhyvym-peredav-pershi-spetsialni-prytsily-dlya-mk-19/
The design department of the "come back alive" foundation has developed an artillery-type sight for the mk 19 grenade launcher. This sight allows indirect fire from this grenade launcher. The fund managed to collect 13 million UAH, which will provide 150 grenade launcher crews. Previously, the Ukrainian military complained that the mk19 does not have sights for indirect fire, unlike the AGS-17. The capabilities of this support weapon will now be expanded

Bit OT - in relation to the mob at the airport in Dagestan, Visegrad posted this meme which gave me a laugh.

Elimination of Russian assault group somewhere on Bakhmut direction. Video of National Police assault brigade "Liut' " (eng. Rage) 
Reportedly Russians now move additional reinfrcements there and again activated own counter-attacks. 
Russian milblogger сomplains, most of these attacks now conduct by Shtorm/Shtorm Z units, but without proper artillery support, so often these groups even can't approach to UKR positions for skirmish fight. He told the level of irrecoverable losses in Shtorm Z companies can be 40-70 % after each attack. Main reason - poor training and total dominance of UKR artilelry and mortars, which don't allow to evacuate wounded, which raise number of KIA. By the same reason more equipped and motivated "Shtorm" units also didn't have success. 
I can add, in last time not only convicts go to Shtorm Z. Many Russian soldiers reject to go in fight and as a punishment commanders transfer them to Shtorm Z units, which more and more turn similar to penalty units of Red Army of WWII. Main reason of refusals is moral exhausting of soldiers, who several months live in dirty trenches with short-time rest in close rear without vacations to home. Many of them hadn't vacations through 9 months. Russian milblogger told one of reason of Avdiivka fail is moral exhausting of infantry - many of them had a hope about vacations, but instead got an order to prepare for assaults. This heavily struck their moral, so there were episodes, when in first days of offensive some units just rejected to go forward despite UKR positions were destroyed by artillery and bombs and it's left onlly seize them almost withoit fight.    

as far as more babies, I'll assume you mean white babies.  And women should definitely not have choices, especially not voting and working outside the home.  Society was great before women became actual people,  like legally actually people, ya know?  It's like when we ended slavery, everything downhill ever since.  
Ya know maybe the divorce rate is because men are generally such f--kheads?  And when women aren't physically and economically trapped they will sometimes choose to leave the aforementioned f--kheads?
Maybe the real problem is letting men vote?

Just to cheer you up, USA are not alone. In Europe every single country has pretty much the same problem on a different scale. Above film about mathematics basics is just a presentation of the tip of the iceberg.
This is a big, flashing red alarm to start treating weaponization of information seriously. Really, freedom of speech is NOT freedom of lies and manipulation. Either we act and demand scientific process of proving "facts" or we will drown in b*******.

What's interesting is that those that are constantly harping about democracy and freedom being destroyed are the ones actually destroying democracy and freedom, at least in the US.  In 2020 (and coming in 2024) we faced the end of american democracy.  A giant mob of these brainless idiots even attacked and captured the US capital!  First time in over 200 years for that!  And what is said of this on the right?  "oh, was a little dustup!".  And these same people generally think religion should be more in charge in the US, while at the same time constantly harping about the constitution which very clearly says "hell no" to that.  
The enemy of democracy is ignorance and demogogery.  Fox news in the US being the primary source of this.  Fox news viewers have no idea what's actually happening.  It's news & infotainment for people that literally can't handle the truth.  They think the 2020 election was stolen, yet have no evidence other than "some black people were seen.."  (do they even know that Fox CHOSE to settle out of court and pay out ~$750M in a civil suit because of their election lies??)   They think climate change is a hoax despite their own thermometers.  They think Trump didn't didn't do anything wrong while the rest of us have actually seen the indictments and the mountains of damning evidence.  They think Jan 6 was everything except what it actually was -- a mob induced by Trump to try to overthrow the duly elected govt of the US -- it was an atttemped coup.
So western society is not being destroyed by gays or transgenders or atheists.  It's being destroyed by ignorant, nationalist, rage-filled fools who listen to rightwing propaganda to the point where they can't even stitch two thoughts together about reality yet think they are saving america while actively trying to destroy it, through their utter stupidity.

Let's not go there. You have to realize though that this is how Putin keeps defining the West in his propaganda.
Edit: ... and so complaining about this sounds a bit off when at the same time you warn that the West hasn't realized what's at stake.

I get that you might be having a bad day but there is so much unwarranted angst in this post: absolutely nobody in “The West” argues that children should have the right to choose their gender.  No-one is emptying our churches (though there are many fewer people heading in) and less than nobody is “emptying churches so they can be turned into mosques”.
Reconsider the merits of whatever media source has told you these things.  You rightly identify that we are in a collision of systems but make no mistake: it is the enemies of our Western system who promote misinformation such as what you posted above in order to foster the very division you warn against.   Seeing through that, being less angry about things that aren’t happening and therefore being a part of a secure Western system is the best way to maintain focus and win. 

But that still might make them twice as smart as the Russian Army, and therefore useful.

As far as I'm concerned people have not experienced great cinema, until they watch The Thing at night in the dead of winter with a glass of J&B in their hand. I think that movie is the main reason I have been drinking J&B scotch for over a decade now. 😀
Anyway, back on topic. Another one bites the dust!
 

8 days later, 20 more ships sail through the corridor. 
 
 

I’m sorry, but that was f’king disgusting! There’s no reason for showing vids of soldiers burning to death! When we show those, we become desensitized to them still being human beings.

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/avdiivka-russian-losses-from-october
 

You are missing the point.  RU is using the soldiers as energy absorbing extra armor layer to protect the BMP.  Very clever!  and a good use of resources since RU knows that its people have zero value while BMPs are in shortage.

Left bank of Dnipro. 
Judging on videos of Russian FPV strikes, UKR troops have significant gains as for so small landing forces:
- Russian strongpoint NW from Pishchanivka village is captured

- Russian strongpoint north from Pidstepne village is captured

Russian TG Romanov92 reported UKR troops delivered 20 men more on 4 boats to central part of Krynky village, so UKR presence in this looooong village (9 km) increased with new bridgehead. Later Romanov wrote "9 boats more landed UKR troops from railways to Krynky"

Russian artillery and FPV actively work on Krynka, Russians also drop 2-3 dozens of glide bombs on right bank of Dnipro each day, but Krynky stands.
German journalists showed training of UKR units of river crossing with M3 Amfibious Rig. UKR srviceman didn't hide: "Our main question is Dnipro crossing"
 
 

3 days later, another 6 ships. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-18/ukraine-s-risky-bet-pays-off-with-ships-streaming-to-its-ports
Article from Bloomberg a few days ago noted a similar volume shipped this month compared with the first month of the UN brokered Black Sea grain deal, and that included at least 9 Panamax vessels, the largest size vessels that normally ship grain, indicating insurance brokers are willing to risk retaliation by Russia. 
 
 

Locals reported about loud explosion in area of Berdiansk airport

(from Kriegsforscher twitter)

Another TOS-1 departs for the afterlife with a TRULY spectacular boom. I wonder what they have to threaten the crews of these things with to get them to even go near them. The guys behind this one, perhaps the people charged with making such threats? Any way I am guessing they will double the follow distance to the next one, if they aren't to concussed to do anything besides drool.

Apologies if this is more Gaza War than you want on the thread, but it seems VERY relevant. feel free to remove it if needed. If the Israelis just allowed Spike missiles and other tech that they have already sold to various European militaries to be sent to Ukraine, It would have a non trivial impact. If they send Ukraine the full military sales catalogue and tell them to order whatever they want....
Edit: Then we get to the fascinating question of helping Poland and Ukraine set up production lines.