rocketman

Debunking the idea that the US is running dangerously low on missiles due to supplying Ukraine:
 

Has Putin fallen into Trump's worst habit? By which I mean sitting around all day watching his own propaganda? So getting  a viewpoint on this show is the only way to get it in front of him?

Azovstal, May 16, 2022.

Best cartoon of the war so far!

who cares, if it pisses off Russia, score another one for the good guys!

To be fair, that's not really the role of generalist media. Their job is to deliver the first draft of history in broad strokes. Specialist media, like RUSI or Janes, is for the details and analysis. Think of it this way - generalist media is like wikipedia, while specialist media is like a good book. Wikipedia is a great place to start and if you just want a quick overview it's probably all you need. But it you really want to understand WTF happened you're going to have to put in some work yourself.
If you confuse the role of each, you're always going to be disappointed.

News you can use.... 
 
 

Engineer troops are part of Support Command. 
Recon squads has one recon-sapper in squad, but also all other have basic sapper training.
Battalion has engineer-sapper platoon.
Brigade - Engineer support group (some similar to sapper battalion)
Operative command - Operative support regiment (sappers+CBRN)
Support Command  has in own subordianation two engineer brigades, road support center, and support regiment (pontoon-bridge unit)

I'm familiar with him, and actually sat next to his former book agent on a plane a week or so before this past xmas (by dumb luck).  We didn't talk about Zubrin, but I think we did talk about space.
Russia is probably 40-ish years behind in space ISR assets, much like they're behind in things like microelectronics and NVG.  Most of it has the same root in the Soviet Union failing to try to copy Silicon Valley from the 70's on (and probably earlier).  The USSR and later Russia were/are fine at building big things made of lots of metal that spit out fire - tanks, missiles, rockets.   But without microelectronics they can't keep up with the kind of data volume that you can collect and integrate if you have relatively cheap high performance sensors and cheap, fast computers.  They've been able to buy some of those things to an extent, like the Thales targeting systems, and presumably microcontrollers for various things, but they can't do the kind of mass production that makes fancy chips appallingly cheap.
I came across an article (linky here) a while ago about when the big divergence between US and USSR capability happened in space. It's by one of the space journalists who figured out the capabilities of the first KH-11 in 1977 (launched in 1976) and sat on it for a year until a spy sold the details to the Soviets.  KH-11 can do about 10 cm (4 inch) resolution on  the ground, and there are 5 of the latest few versions in space right now.  And the NRO is giving away telescopes that size to other agencies, because they presumably have better. One of the things that the Aviation Week journalists held off  on publishing even longer was the existence of a second satellite network whose sole purpose was to be able to relay images in realtime from the KH-11.  So the US had realtime 10 cm resolution on the ground in 1977.  Russia was still returning film capsules in 2016.
And "New Space" has changed things drastically - commercial companies can give you multiple daily revisits of any location on earth at resolutions between 20 cm and 3 m.  Basically, kids in a garage in the US can make and launch cube sats cheap enough to do 3 m resolution more or less hourly.  If you have several billion dollars you could do half meter resolution that often, and there's probably a commercial market for it.  The stuff you need to do that is export controlled, and just about all the high res imaging companies are US based for that reason. The USG is the largest customer for those data.
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is becoming comparably cheap and there are multiple companies doing that, too. And it can see through clouds.  And those companies also tend to be US based for similar reasons to the optical imagers.
There were some twitter posts early on about likely degradation of GPS over Ukraine, figured out from looking at the errors reported on ADS-B data.  There was speculation that it was Russia doing it, but it seems more likely that it was the US/NATO.  Ukrainians know where they are and have maps, but the Russians appear to have lousy mapping and were using some commercial GPS units, so even being able to mess them up by putting them a couple roads over from where they were supposed to be could help UA.
And that doesn't even get into the SIGINT and ELINT stuff.  But three things are happening to ISR from space right now - the cost of launch is going down fast, the cost of making stuff to launch is going down fast, and the size of the electronics you need to make that stuff work is going down fast.  So the west has tons of space ISR going on, both commercial and government.  And Russia, well, doesn't.  They have two optical satellites that are getting old and probably don't have anywhere near comparable performance to western stuff.  They probably have some SIGINT and ELINT satellites, but the lack of a microelectronics base makes it likely that those are very limited in capability.
All of which leads to the Russian anti-satellite test in November.  There was speculation at the time that it was intended to produce a ton of debris to blind the west so that they could do exactly what they did.  They did succeed in making a mess, but didn't take out any significant satellites.  And even if they took out a few, there are so many that they wouldn't be likely get them all, and the three letter agencies tend to keep some sitting around on the ground for launch-on-demand, so they could launch above the debris if they needed to.
edit: here's where Russia is with ELINT/SIGINT satellites and SAR, which is basicaly nowhere:
 

The chief of Luhansk oblast MCA claimed in the morning Russians conducted the fifth attempt to put the pontoon, and he hopes our artillery will hit it as well as previous four. 
In the middle of the day military jourmalist Yuryi Butusov, reported from Bilohorivka area that Russian attempts to make bridgeheads in Dronivka, Bilohorivka and Serebrianka completely failed and their troops either destroyed or expelled from bridgeheads, so 8-day battle on th ebanks of Siverskyi Donets is completed and he is going to write soon about this in details. Though, Butusov Is often wishful thinking, but lets's see... He wrote he, as if, was an eyewitness of Russian withrawal from Bilohorivka. 

Russian discussion on Lostarmour as if also confirms Russians lost Bilohorivka completely. Girkin-Strelkov wrote about total senseless pogrom on Siverskyi Donets and heavy losses in personnel, including units' top brass. But who knows, maybe Dvornicov will make another attempt...
And again we have seen repeating of the WWII history - battle for Pryvil'ne bridgehead. On 8-9th of May 1943 in the same place, but in area of Privil'ne  - Shypylove villages (8 km NE from Bilohorivka), Red Army launched operation to seiz Pryvil'ne settlement and from there advance to Lysychansk. There were hills around, which Germans turned out in heavy fortified zone. Four sapper battalions were involved on 9th of May additionally to maintain crossing of three rifle divisions. Despite Red Army managed to hook on enemy's bank of river, they couldn't advance to expand bridgehead - Germans fill the area with artillery and bombed with aviation. After  25th of May both sides exhausted and stood on positions. After 17th July during Izium-Barvenkovo operation Red Army tried again to attack on Lysychansk direction from bridgehead, but again was stopped. Only on 2nd of September 1943 they could breakthrow German defense and liberate Lysychansk 

This is not quite right.  ~1/2 US people don't end up paying federal income taxes.  This gets promulgated into the myth that half of america is free loading.  These are children, stay at home parents, disabled, etc plus the majority which is low income folks.  But low income folks DO pay social security and medicare taxes.  Since Social Security, and Medicare make up ~1/3 of the budget and around half of mandatory spending, they are chipping in.  And they are paying all sorts of state & local taxes.  I don't want to distract just wanted to clarify a bit.
But if anyone thinks being low income worker is free loading, they should try it for a while. 

I live too far from the center of city. I suppose, there were some attempts to sneak on guarded territory of Govt. quarter, because even in our distant district I heard several clashes with short, but intensive sounds of rifles firing, so there really were many diversion groups around. But I have too little faith to the words of Arestovich about dozen attempts and "epic battles" near Bankova street with Russian diversion groups. 
My advice to you and all - never believe the words of Arestovich. Even he say something true it should be divided in many times. The mission of Arestovich is not bring true picture of war, but to calm population with heroic victorious tales. He is just a part of PsyOps for inner customer. 

im absolutely fascinated by the decap strikes against Zelensky within Kiev itself. The presidential offices were shot up and attacked several times. The saboteurs could easily have succeeded,and I think UKR morale would have taken a serious drop.
If this was the trump card Putin relied on, but which failed, then it does go some way to explaining the rushed, thrown together nature of the first days.
Putin didn't expect or care if the UKR population welcomed the Rus troops, he expected the UKR defense establishment to be headless, confused, distracted by personal defense and unable to coherently organize or communicate.
The successful personal defense of the government in Kiev was possibly the real war-winning event. Zelensky, the Defense ministry and UKR chiefs of staff still alive meant that the RuA had to turn itself inside out from an occupying posture to a real invasion stance,  something it has patently failed to do (twice).
After the failed assassination days,, Russian Victory was impossible.
@Haiduk you were/are in Kiev at the start. What can you add?
 

Expansion of NATO in Europe also means that Europe will become less dependent on the US. The US already had a dissident president, and his supporters still support putin. I prefer the US to remain fully democratic, but I don't take them for granted. To call Kim of North Korea and putin great guys give me the shivers. Two nut regimes with enough bombs to wage a terror campaign on the world is unacceptable. One nut regime (Russia) is bad enough. The Democratic Party won't be here forever. The social democratic systems in Europe are called left liberals in the US. The Republican Party needs to regain trust. 

😀

Totally mis understood.  This is part of the Russian space program.  

Interesting map over roaming Russian SIMs in Ukraine.
 

In just 3 pics I see 20+ AFVs destroyed together with a picture not from the pontoon crossing. Those are crazy losses, RU command has to be snorting something illegal to only have one pontoon bridge for crossing. One thing I don't like about this conflict is putting music into videos where people are getting obliterated. Both sides do it I end up muting every video. 

Let me say, this is also good discussion because it has led to dilemma, and in my experience that is a sure sign we are onto something.
So let me paint things out a bit (begs for patience):  So back in 1945, infantry could basically effect about 200m versus tanks, and maybe 1000m vs other infantry.  They had ISR in the form of intel feeds, which were often daily, and what they and those in radio range could see.  Now in 2022, those same infantry, in modern militaries, are able to effect armor of all types out to 80kms (Switchblade 600, NLOS ATGMs such as Spike) and employ UAVs and other sensors to see at least as far.  They also can do the same to other dismounted infantry; however, those are harder to find than armor, and infantry still need armor in the modern battlefield in order to attack (maybe?)
So what?  Well this means that, as we have seen in this war, that infantry - light infantry in particular - have far more range, lethality and accuracy than at any other time in human history.  They are also just as hard to see.  What has appeared to have happened in this war, at least as far as I can tell, is Ukrainian defence has relied on light infantry to do most of the heavy lifting.  I have no doubt Ukrainian conventional mech has been engaged, particularly at key points; however, Ukraine did not, and does not have anywhere near enough conventional mass to defend the frontages it has - enter hybrid warfare.  This is a game changer, as light infantry can essentially deny swaths of the land domain battlespace.  Further, they now have ranges that inflict attrition and friction well past the formation level.  When combined with integrated ISR, and their own through UAVs along with effective comms, and UA artillery, they have hammered Russian logistics to the point I suspect it broke - leading to the collapse of an entire front in the North.  This demonstrates a much higher level of both tactical and operational levels of precision than the Russians have been able to muster.
So What?  Russian mass, in all its forms is not working.  And based on this entire discussion, I am coming to a hypothesis as to why and it jumps from your statement up there: that is exactly how Russia fought and won in 2014, and likely thought it could fight and win in 2022.  In 2014 they demonstrated repeatedly that they could bring their assets to bear faster and with more accuracy than UA forces.  They believed they could suppress and then kill in detail with superiority like they did in 2014...so what changed?  Well Ukraine developed an C4ISR system apparently, and one that can do one helluva better job at bringing assets to bear.  I also suspect an organic C4ISR system emerged within local Ukrainian defence; Haiduk has already described how everything from sensing to logistics to killing has been crowdsourced in this war.  This created a major dilemma for the Russians, and it would be for us too - how can we bring our assets to bear to achieve effects when they were designed for another opponent?  You noted that we use mass fires to hit moving armor - what happens when your opponent offers you no moving armor?  What happens when an opponent can hit your operational LOCs from that treeline?  They can take out  your lead F ech armor at a nearly 1-1 munition kill ratio?  And because you are carrying so much mass, for miles behind you, they can see you coming for days...and you can't see them at all?
The dilemma is that, and you are correct here, all-precision is not practical.  Your slide example demonstrates that. However, mass as we understand it is not working and it is likely because how we have designed it was for a centralized mass-v-mass war...and people don't need mass to stop mass anymore, or at least that is what I suspect we are seeing here. In order to combat what we are seeing, yes we would need to blast every treeline OR we really up our ISR game to the point we can see a person in every treeline 40 kms out, which as far as I know is also not an option.  In your case up above, those infantry died in their vehicles before we could even figure out which treeline to hit.  I suspect that is why, as we have seen in other post the Russians are employing WW2 style approaches of "recce by death" to try and suss out Ukrainian defence.  All this adds up to a really slow and grinding advance, while ones logistical trains are being destroyed.
Ok, so I am not a Logistician either, but I do have a fair amount of experience in this field - I went through an Operational Support phase for about 5 years. Your example is perfect.  Since WW1 Army's have been firing "unfathomably large amounts"...it is also exactly how Germany lost that war. 
It is trite to go with "professionals talk logistics" (I think Bradley was really saying professionals see the entire system); however, logistics is the critical path for warfare, and has been for a long time.  Why?  Because it is how one can sustain all that mass.  Without it military mass breaks down and fragments, so many historical examples of this, a the Russians have re-affirmed this truth.
Back in the day, I had the same sentiment - "they always winge about that but someone will figure it out."  I suspect some Russian commanders had the same idea.  Problem is that based on all that stuff I pointed out before re: light infantry -and frankly we should know this from 20 years of small crappy wars- there is no such thing as a rear area anymore.  Russia has lost nearly 1000 logistical vehicles (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html) and it shows.  I strongly suspect they keep stalling out because their logistics system strains and then fails, which directly effects the Russian A-game of mass.  This makes mass unaffordable, mainly because it is not working anywhere near quickly enough - it is in an upside down battlefield calculus.
So what is our dilemma?  We do not have an answer to what we are seeing in Ukraine right now.  We have excellent C4ISR but it has limits and finding light infantry in bushes is one of them - we learned that one the hard way.  We have mass but it won't help if we cannot find the thing to hit with it, and it creates weight we need to support.  We have excellent logistics to support it; however, it is highly visible and vulnerable at the ranges we are talking about.  We have airpower, but we even saw in Iraq that we can lose air superiority below 2000 feet.  This lead me back to something that has been nagging me for about 20 years...what does superiority even mean anymore?  We had all of it and it did not seem to matter.
We do not have the precision to combat this type of fight, and our mass will not work either.  We would no doubt do better than the Russians for all the reason we have explored here but I am more and more convinced that warfare has been shifting for some time and has shifted here again.  This shift has pushed us into a dilemma space we need to figure out.  Maybe it is not that bad, and we can mitigate with what we already have.  Maybe it is worse than we think.  All I know is that we need to figure that one out because the Chinese are watching this as closely as we are and if I wanted to really mess up a western proxy nation intervention in 5 years I already know what I would do.

What it’s like being a Chinese reporter covering the sports competition in Ukraine:
 

Okay, now THAT'S funny.

For you, Vlad. I know your German is excellent.