Jump to content

rocketman

Members
  • Posts

    2,924
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    rocketman reacted to beardiebloke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Probuswas asking about "HE Anti-personnel HIMARS" and I found this:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/30/2126197/-Ukraine-update-Russia-prepares-for-advance-on-Svatove-as-U-S-provides-powerful-new-rockets
    @danfrodois the "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL" warning mandatory?

    Their source seems to be this tweet: 
    I guess they're not particularly controversial so I don't see why this couldn't be true.
    These look deeply unpleasant from the RU infantry's point of view.  Not sure when they would be used if UKR has precision artillery shells, perhaps if they get intel on a big, soft-ish target in RU's rear.
  2. Like
    rocketman reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is so messed up in so many ways.  There just aren't any words to analyze the mindset of a people that think that would be a good thing to see driving around.
    Can't they smell desperation?
  3. Like
    rocketman reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR hit Antonivskyi bridge again. 

    No further images, but several sources write that "bridge finally destroyed". I doubt one of passes could collapsed, maybe it got such damages, which now completely deny any movement (before this Russians on won risk moved through the bridge with very slow speed per one truck)
    Some Russian sources also confirmed bridge can't be used anymore, likely even for foot crossing. This as if TG of Russian 205th motor-rifle brigade:
     
    Translation: We are not just withdrawing. We are retreating, I even can't to match a word how to call this. This is flight. We know who guilty of this. Everybody
    No way to run. Antonovskyi bridge completely destroyed.
     
    Like from LoTR: "We cannot get out. We cannot get out... They have taken a bridge.... The end comes... Drums... Drums..." 
  4. Like
    rocketman reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    After successful referendum and joining Czechia, Kralovec ( former Koenigsberg and Kaliningrad) now has an official twitter profile:
     
  5. Like
    rocketman reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    LOL, best diplomatic response yet!! Andrij Melnyk is the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, so it is an official statement!!
     
    edit: Sorry for the bad language, couldn't edit but thought it was appropriate.  
  6. Like
    rocketman reacted to Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Nice boots, the thick rubber on the sole will help insulate your feet for long periods of times. In contrast here are the current Russian issue boots:
    Note how they have little to no sole. These are dangerous in the winter. Especially since they aren't made of plastic, but instead probably a rubber.

  7. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Misplaced from the stock that never existed, fulfilled by the shell company with no employees (but 17 directors), parking lot for a factory and an empty head office, after it won a competition against six  identical other companies (who all share the same address) and judged by the brother of one of the Directors who is a clerk at the MoD. 
     
  8. Like
    rocketman reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    All of his stuff is great, but there is real insight in this one.
  9. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Cederic @chuckdyke what on earth...
    Are the two of you six years old,  or something?
     
    Handbags at dawn, ladies. 
    Sheesh. 
  10. Like
    rocketman reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There are some indications that UKR are watching carefully how RU are removing troops from South. 
  11. Like
    rocketman reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Most Delicious excerpt from Rybar post:
     
    And another one
     
  12. Like
    rocketman reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Said to be Liman.  “That got the Russians”??
     
  13. Like
    rocketman reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, you and others turn a blind eye to Kraze defacto blatantly calling for genocide of all Russians and Arabs. He walked a thin threaded line for a long time trying to stay just on the 'correct' part of the line (so he would be allowed to continue).
    But it was clear for a while (at least to me) that he was formulating a problem for which the only requirement can be to 'get rid of all Russians'. Than he went further and included all Arabs in it for good measure.
    Do you 'defend' that?
  14. Like
    rocketman reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry for the delayed response but am on the road. Your effort deserves an answer. Couple points:
    ”Wokism” is not being enforced by a central authority, at least not in my country.  It is a social movement made be people free to do so.  Governments are getting onboard because in a democracy they need to in order to remain in power”
    Japan was successful in expunging its imperial ambitions, which is clear evidence that a nation of people can reinvent itself.
    The picture that you and others paint of Russia and all Russians make that impossible.  By the metric you are employing in your very detailed post Russians are irredeemable, all of them.  In fact that has been a central argument on this topic.  Now if you are arguing that Russians can change themselves over time, then we are now talking solutions and not revenge fantasies, which is excellent.
    I would argue the best strategy is to pull Ukraine into collective defence and security mechanisms that Russia has never directly challenged.  Rebuild your nation.  Compress and contain Russia and its influence.  Leave sanctions and restrictions in place until Russia finds a leadership that is willing to cooperate in prosecution of war crimes and payment of reparations.  Then influence and encourage an internal Russian government that can conduct and support an effort to reduce the imperial impulse the nation has demonstrated - along with corruption, oppression and lack of democratic freedoms.
    However in my vision, it need be accepted that Russia is not irredeemable, nor is every Russian a heartless invader nor active participant in this, or any other war.  One must accept that that are people of varying ideology and beliefs - they just keep turning to the wrong ones as their leadership.  
     
  15. Like
    rocketman reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I can't find any service dates in the articles I looked through but doctors are commissioned as Captains and are pretty much rubber stamped to Major in 5-6 years. Considering this one is 39 and only a major means that they probably suck. So actually what we would normally think, like you said, that someone with this type of loyalty problem wouldn't make Major in a normal military field really doesn't apply that much to the medical field in the military. 
    Now, let's just start this off with me stating right out of the gate that I am not a fan of Putin and this is just my hypothesis.
    I'm thinking that a lot of what he has done in the last couple months has been to give him a case for staying alive at the end of this war. I think we all agree that he pulled the trigger on the invasion under false assumptions about Ukraine and his military's ability to wage war. We can also assume that he expected backlash from the west (big war chest amassed prior to invasion) but that he didn't think it would be as severe as it happened to be and that with a quick war he could get things smoothed out for the Russian economy in the near term. He counted on the gas and oil supplies to keep most of the major European powers either on the fence or ignoring the invasion and not the pretty much unilateral support for Ukraine.
    A couple weeks in the Kremlin realized they were in trouble and it wasn't going to be a smooth blitz. They had to pull out from around Kiev or face a crushing defeat. The military convinced everyone that they had been given bad intel and that Plan A was no longer feasible. Plan B was to flatten everything with firepower and crush the remainder of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. At this time there was the purge of the FSB. Putin clearing out those not in lock step with him and placing the blame on the failed initial invasion on their shoulders. This was public and given to the people as the reason that their vaunted military forces failed. They were deceived and it will be ok, the nazis will still be crushed. The RA hammers Ukraine with missiles and the Black Sea Fleet sorties and shuts down any possible exports, ratcheting up the pressure on the economy and the civilian population. 
    Mariupol falls and the spring offensive grinds into the summer. The Moskva is sunk and the northern pincer is stopped south of Izium. Several generals are fired and replaced for their inability to make things happen and Putin gets frustrated. Ru Nats are pointing out problems and screaming for mobilization. With the military going nowhere fast and taking heavy losses, the massive western support pouring into Ukraine and the western political block not budging he knows the game is up. 
    Looking at the options, like everyone in this forum has liked to point out, his survival chances are severely decreased if the war is lost and it is pinned on him. He isn't stupid, he just sometimes does dumb things. He already has his security apparatus in lock step due to cleansing them earlier. Oligarchs that aren't firmly in his corner keep doing Icarus reenactments so he is making sure the money men are at least not against him even if they aren't actively with him. He decides that he really doesn't need to discredit the military since it has already done that to itself as well as revealed the levels of corruption throughout the entire military industrial complex. Who's left? The Nats. 
    Putin has resisted the mobilization from the beginning as he knows that the military isn't capable of training, equipping and fielding large numbers of troops in time to make a difference. He knows that the mobilization will be a ***tshow. He knows that a large number of citizens from across the country will show up on the battle field untrained, horribly equipped and with low morale. He know the result will be a lot of dead conscripts and this will lead to a lot of angry family members. So he says "fine, have it your way" to the Nats and calls for the mobilization. The results we will see play out over the next few weeks. 
    Now we have the strikes on Nordstream. Someone a bunch of pages back put out the theory that it was to stop any faction that wanted to get rid of him and start the flow of gas again to the west. That makes a lot of sense to me when you look at it from this perspective of Putin trying to stay alive.
    So he has solidified his security, the military is a hollow shell, the moneymen are dead or in line, and the Nats will be discredited. There is a good chance with the collapse of the mobiks there will be a collapse with the RA. Kherson is a matter of time and so Russia will lose the territories they have occupied and the war, but probably not Crimea. At least not right away with everything else. 
    Putin can then speak to the Russian people and plead his case. He was deceived by the corrupt military and military industrial complex that he spent the last 20 years trying to build up. He pumped billions into them and they assured him that the improvements were being made yet it all went into their pockets and poor Russian boys died. The FSB betrayed him and provoked him into a SMO on faulty information that led to Russian boys dying. The Nats were in on it with the rest and pressed for a failed mobilization that led to lots of Russian boys dying. 
    He gives the same old Soviet lines. The People were betrayed by the boyars and they must be purged!! The great Russian nation was betrayed by the greedy RA officers and they must be purged!! The people are innocent victims of these horrible people and Putin will set it right!! 
    I'll bet a couple beers that if he doesn't suffer from acute lead poisoning in the next few weeks he can pull this off. This plays into what those in the know on this forum about the Russian people have said. It gives them the excuse of they weren't defeated by an external enemy but by internal treason. If they are indoctrinated as we think they are and the masses are as inactive as they are said to be they will support Putin and cry out for the blood of the criminals that caused all this. He continues on, a bunch of people die, the gulags get fired up and Russia is back to a miserable 1980 something for a long, long time. New cold war. Russian isolation for a generation. He doesn't care as he still has the perks and remains in power.
    Russian power is neutered and it is a pariah state so that is pretty much a good thing. Easy to keep contained and not able to meddle much with the rest of the world. The only down side is for all of you that want your electric cars as without Russian lithium, copper, nickel and cobalt that vaunted 2035 plan isn't going to happen.
    Edit: I forgot to add about his little buddy Prigozin (SP?), you know, the Wagner guy. Some think that he is angling himself to take out Putin but he also plays into the above. Putin has him being portrayed now as the founder of the most successful military unit in theatre. He will be the one to assume control of the STAVKA and reform the military after their defeat. Quick transition of power to the only respected semi-military guy they have and one that has the backing of the PMC to take out any military groups that might think they want to have a go at ending his regime. It will be telling if in the next few weeks he is given operational control of more units than just the PMC. 
  16. Like
    rocketman reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'll voice another unpopular opinion: If I have to choose between a Russian victory in Ukraine and all out nuclear war I'll take the Russian victory. The one would cause incredible suffering, the other risks billions of lives and even human civilization.
    Before someone claims I'd say something else if it was Germany instead of Ukraine: No, I wouldn't.
  17. Like
    rocketman reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, ok. Sure. Glad you aren't in charge of any big red buttons. Another to add to my ignore list before I say something I'll regret.
  18. Like
    rocketman reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They know the details. The JCPOA was to prevent them from having enough material to enrich far enough for a weapon. The US withdrawal eliminated that restriction and now we're back where we were 5-6 years ago when they were 3 weeks away from doing so, and everyone was yelling to do something. 
     
    As to the rest, the idea that there is some binary decision to be made, either put up with the status quo, or some variation of that, or turn the whole world into a smoking cinder, is just ridiculous. You all are not saying punish Russia if they use one nuclear weapon. You are saying **** it, blow it all up. All of it. Everyone dies because we couldn't do anything else about Putin.
    Crazy talk. 
    Dave
  19. Like
    rocketman reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sarcasm, right? I hope so.
    If not, it's the most ridiculous thing I've read in a long time. 

    Dave
  20. Like
    rocketman reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Seems we have another UKR attack

  21. Like
    rocketman reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well now…
     
  22. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thats fundamentally ridiculous and completely off the rails, logic-wise.
    To be clear, I'm from a country that was invaded and oppressed for about 800 years, suffering very intensive and determined cultural eradication efforts, many many deliberate massacres of civilians, brutal repression of rebellions, exploitations as serf-like domestic servants and military cannon fodder, colonisation and economic exploitation, deliberate official neglect during multiple famines, intolerance of religion, execution of POWs and supression/extinction of the native language.
    In some ways I'm probably more aware of it than many of my compatriots as I'm a fluent Gaelic speaker, through primary school and secondary in Gaelic immersion, and so I'm more aware of what has been lost and destroyed. Its like with the dinosaur fossil record - what we find and see is but a tiny fraction of what actually existed. So with indigenous Irish culture, what's left, what's survived to here and now is very likely just a sad echo of what was and what could have been. That's one of the unending tragedies of every colonisation process, the denial of what-might-have-been, to the eternal loss of human culture in general.
    For eight centuries.
    So my bona fides, as far as I'm concerned, are unassailable.
    But it would be stupid for me to equate a Staffordshire farmer, paying his taxes and trying to muddle through from one season to the next, with the relentlessly brutal and imperialistic policies of the regime of the time.
    A British Army officer suppressing a rebellion with wholesale slaughter of rebel prisoners, yup, hang 'em high. They were directly and deliberately implementing the HMG policies/attitudes1.
    But they're not the same person, the Farmer (and his family, by implication and actual effects) and the Officer,  and deserve very different fates. 
    You're not a stupid person. You're very articulate, your English is excellent and you have very salient points which you're able to cogently argue through. You have enormous grounds for hate and anger and which, as I've stated before (and my paragraph above will help support), I fully agree with why you'd feel that. You have every right as a Ukrainian to hate Russians.
    But this is frankly hate for hate's sake, and that just breeds more death. There's no thought in a sentence like the one quoted above, just emotion and ranting. And like I said, I get it. I've absorbed enough accounts and writings from history to feel the intense anger of my people through the hundreds of years of English/British rule. So I'm no stranger to your sentiments.
    But the point stands and, for this leprechaun-sounding paddy, you're doing yourself a disservice and ruining your own arguments and credibility with this death spiral of useless, vacant vitriol.
    This is not the place (you'll achieve nothing here) and your energy is far better spent helping your country or relating what's going on there than this cul-de-sac argument over how to properly punish "the Ivan".
    I beg you to stop.
     
     
    1 The rebel atrocities were just as heinous and damnable and, crucially, further solidified the "savage peasant"  image of the Irish. Later on, in the 19/20th centuries that helped make rebellion "uncool"  for many middle class Irish.  It took some blatant whitewashing and outright denial to help clean the idea of independence from the stain of Irish crimes against civilians. 
  23. Like
    rocketman reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    you know maybe if you actually read a little more.....
    For example, before going off on those horrible Arabs you might want to check the founding of the state of Israel.
    Deir Yassin comes to mind
    Deir Yassin - Wikipedia
    or perhaps Sabra and Shatila
    Sabra and Shatila massacre - Wikipedia
    I'm with @The_Capton this.  Your intolerance and support for genocide has no place here.
  24. Like
    rocketman reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ahem, BF. Seeeee my ATGMers CAN spot and shoot from prone in tall grass... 
  25. Like
    rocketman reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The timing couldn't be better:
     
×
×
  • Create New...