rocketman

Site that visualizes the Oryx visually confirmed losses data. With constant updates: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine
some interesting examples:

Himars and Excalibur being applied systematically to Russian artillery.

RUMINT as if from BSF HQ sources, but. of course, unverified (maybe more realistic variation of Gerashcheno's info)

Result of combined UKR attack:
- frigate "Admiral Makarov" - in result of several USV hits damaged both superstructures, radar equipment knoked out, damged fire control system and communication system. There are some wounded among watches
- cargo ship damaged, probably half-submerged
- the boat sunk, either Serna-class landing craft, or missile boat of Molniya-class (pr.1241, NATO Tarantul class)
- minesweeper "Ivan Golubets" (pr.266M, NATO Natya-class) damaged, the burning is continuing on it
- surface damages got large landing ship and some auxiliary vessels

Video from the suicide drones that attacked Sevastopol today. Amazing footage:
 

The latest medicin, for Russians. So they can avoid reality.
 

There are forums for that stuff. This is a thread tracking a genocidal war against the Ukrainian people. 
Personally  I've zero interest in the Phillies or anything sports spamming up this thread. 

Russian TG reported that damaged minesweeper is "Ivan Golubets" (project 266M, NATO Natya class)
Minesweeper has a hole in the hull and cought fire. Also one USV hit sub nets and booms obstacle in Yuzhnaya bay

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

Not to put a too fine a point on it but you are replying to MikeyD 30+ hours and 5 pages later to further derail the thread.

If you care about derailment ignoring posts is better than replying. To put in perspective you went back 100 comments just so you could make this comment.

I must say that my current life is a paradise compared to what it was at the end of February, beginning of March. Then, in the current situation with electricity, I am daily exposed to artillery shelling and air bombing. I was in my apartment and just moved away from the window, when a 152-mm shell fell right in front of my window, at a distance of about 100 meters. They threw shards of glass at me, later I found one of the shards in my apartment. Miraculously, I didn't come back. But this is a trifle. It all happened so suddenly that I didn't even have time to get scared.
Air bombardment of senior artillery. When you sit in the basement and hear the rapidly growing whistle of a Russian jet engine. With this blood in your veins, you literally freeze with fear, you understand that now he will drop bombs and, perhaps, you will find yourself under the rubble. When the FAB-500 bomb explodes a kilometer away from you. A building in the basement that literally shakes like an earthquake.
But I experienced the greatest fear when, in the conditions of street fighting, I traveled from Irpen (I had the stupidity to wait until the last, hoping that the Russians were not going to my city, because the bridge to Kyiv had already been blown up). As I was walking towards the bridge along the main street on the next street, literally 200 meters away from me, a heavy firefight broke out. I saw tracers flying across the intersection that I had to cross to get to the bridge. I waited until the Russian turned the fire in the other direction, and with all my might ran across the intersection. Despite this, thanks to adrenaline, I had more energy than ever. I ran a mile and a half with large and heavy bags. Normally I wouldn't be able to do this.
 

T-90M gets Excalibured:
More tank plinking with Excalibur:
 

After yesterday strike at fuel train in Shakhtarsk Russian TV showed reportage how local firemen heroically rescued dozens of tank-cars. Today next three HIMARSes hit the same station where theese resqued tank-cars remained standing. As result of strike next portion of tank-cars were set on fire with fuel tanks of fuel depot on this station. One missile also reportedly hit deploymnet place of "Dizel" tank battalion near railway station, also causing fire.
This second strike took place about 8 hour ago, this fire is burning to this time
 
 
 
 

That must have been about 1,000 pages ago. Everyone has seen the warning many times over, and are capable readers. So, enough already!

Plus the barrel damage.  We've all seen complaints that CM barrel damage isn't realistic.  This photo begs to differ.  Are those 30mm autocannon hits?  50 cal AP?

Viva la Español! Yeah, HAWK is ancient, but the Phase 3 version shouldn't be that much worse than early S300 that Ukraine uses, at least against most of the targets. And there should be a metric crapload of these spread across various countries - Wiki quotes that 40 000 missiles for it were manufactured. Comibined with NASAMS/ IRIS-T, and various lesser systems, as well as what remains of S300 Ukraine still retains, I can easily see their AD umbrella becoming thicker, not thinner in the upcoming months, same way as their arty has rather improved.
 

Let’s nip in the bud partisan sniping about the President, and be glad we have Administration that has been at least reasonably competent in handling the tightrope of supporting Ukraine and managing relations within NATO in this war. While not making us all into glow in the dark Halloween skeleton decorations lighting up a desolate nuclear winter.
(Although it isn’t over yet, Jack!)

Ok let’s get some knowledge on this whole Wagner Line thing.  I will caveat that 1) I am not even sure a complex obstacle belt will work against how the UA has been fighting this war and 2) I have no idea how long this Wagner line is, or whether it ties into natural obstacles nor what the fire plans are around it.
That said, be very wary of the internet.  I see a lot of people talking about stuff they have no idea about, particularly in the “Russia sux camp”.  I do not go into my professional background too much for many reasons but I will say that one of my military incarcerations over a 34 year career is a military engineer, so take that into account if you like.
First, I doubt the veracity of the styrofoam claim very much.  Why?  Because it would take more time and resources to make a fake dragons tooth than to simply pour some concrete over steel bars.  I have heard nothing about Russia suffering a concrete shortage and this whole styrofoam theory sound like complete BS.
Second, efficacy of the Wagner line dragons teeth.  Dragons teeth need not be fixed or footed, particularly not the pyramidal ones I am seeing in this pictures.  They are designed to roll and catch the ground on their points as they do.  In doing so they can either belly up a tracked vehicle or de-track it.  Either way they act as caltrops for tracked IFVs and armor, looking for mobility kills but these are just the appetizer.
Third, these are clearly part of a complex obstacle.  The sorts of obstacles are designed to pull combat engineering and key armoured resources forward and expose them the fires.  If you can kill them then bull-rushing such a complex obstacle will likely yield in and around 70-80% casualties.  It isn’t how large the dragons teeth are, or how much they weigh, it is their placement.  I have heard a lot of “well we can just go in and tow them out” or “bring in a dozer and simply push them”.  Sure, but you are doing that in the middle of a 400m deep minefield while having ATGMs and artillery dropped on your head.  In fact the dragons teeth I have seen in that double row are likely the horizontal safelane markers as well.  As you would expect dismounting in the middle of a minefield with crowbars and chains is a good way to turn trained sappers into names on a memorial.
Finally, stuff like dragons teeth are hell on mine plows and rollers.  The get in between them and mess up the tank.  So this means engineers have to bring up technical vehicles like dozer tanks..which are very rare on the battlefield.  I have seen pics of these dragons teeth next to railways and embankments, which is really smart as that makes the mechanical clearing job that much harder.  About the only expedient way for this is explosive clearing - which I am not sure the UA even have - dragons teeth then should be fixed to avoid being blown aside.  But when combined with an AT ditch and some decent sighting that can even stump an explosive breach.
So no, there is nothing wrong with those Dragons Teeth as is at least as far as I can see from a picture, maybe not the most awesome I have ever seen but as part of a larger complex obstacle they will do exactly what they were designed to so long as that obstacle is covered by fire and observation.  The Russians are going to need about 100kms of these in a triple belt with KZs pre-sighted to get the effect I think they are looking for, which I do not think they can do and shame on the UA if they give them time and space to do this.
Remember that diagram I did up a while back, look both left towards effect and right towards capability when seeing stuff like this and always keep in mind the entire picture.  And avoid groups who are just seeing what they want to see at this point.

Something large is expoloded this night on Kinburn spit, Kherson oblast (long peninsula oppose to Ochakiv), probably in area of Pokrovske village

 
 

This is a highly complex question with likely an entire eco-system of possible answers.  Fundamentally we have to accept that silence does not automatically equal support. True freedom of speech and a right to lawful protest is a tricky issue even we in Canada and the US are wrestling with. So if one comes from a nation of high oppression the impulse to protest is very often not well understood or even valued.  Plenty examples of this; did we see a massive uprising in Latino communities when US policy got draconian on illegal immigration?  How much actual diaspora marches have we seen on the Chinese Uyghurs?  How about Palestinians and current issues in Iran?  There are examples of diaspora weighing in on all of these but comparative to their populations these are very muted responses particularly when compared to Me Too and BLM. 
Does this mean that these groups support whatever crimes against humanity or injustice that is happening? Not necessarily.  Russians are coming from a highly oppressive power structure built on top of even more oppressive power structures - one could argue that the oppression is embedded into their culture at this point, having been inculcate for centuries. In fact, flip that, we all come from oppressive power government roots Russia has yet to shed them.
Lets go back to Afghanistan (sigh) - we realized early on that the insurgency was not a nice neat sub-group of Afghan society, it was more of a spectrum.  So we worked hard to get the Afghan people to rise up against the TB, which had been incredibly oppressive…and we won the war and went home (heh).  In reality most Afghans just wanted to be left alone.  Our war with the TB was like the weather, one tried to predict it but pretty much just endured whatever came.  Some Aghans took our money, or their money but there was never loyalty to either side.  So does this mean that all Afghans were TB and slathering AQ supporters…no.  Did it mean that inside every Afghan there was a US citizen yearning to come out…nope.  So what?  Well micro-social power is 1) incredibly powerful, 2) largely in stasis, locked in routine, culture and traditions and 3) has very short range, like 10km from where one is born type of stuff.  So translating that into a massive uprising/protest/movement, particularly in the direction an outside government wants is not really low hanging fruit.
I suspect just because Russian are living in relatively safe part of the world outside of Putin’s grasp that they, as a group, do not want to be singled out for anything right now. In some areas they likely support this war and buy into the Putin narrative. In others I have no doubt they oppose this war vehemently.  As to protest, there have been some but massive protest movements lie over tipping points that take a lot to build up to especially given the history and culture of power oppression in the region.  
Leaping to the “they are with us are agin us” conclusion is extremely dangerous as it will quickly alienate those who will be needed to fix Russia when this is over.  Those in the “let Russia burn camp” and support this “all Russians are evil…look they are not marching in the streets” are very emotional and letting that cloud the fact that a burning Russia is a fire that will spread quickly.  Treating all Russians as collaborators and 5th columnists is even dumber as we need Russian speakers and cultural experts, as well as political opposition for what happens next.
People are about as complex a problem as we can come up with - when I hear simple answers I stop listening.  Problem is that we are addicted to simple answers, to the point that I argue the most terrible things humans have ever done each other comes down to simple answers.  The Russians are using simple answers to try to solve their “Ukraine problem” right now and anyone promoting more simple answers in response is actually part of the problem and not the solution - and I know that isn’t where you were coming from Steve.

And I would argue that the point you are missing is that on a strategic and operational level they took that “pretend force” and advanced deeply into the country they were invading and still hold over 20% of it.  We can slight their tactical capability all day (and do) and even though they have been a mess strategically and operationally there is nothing Potemkin or “cargo cultish” about the threat they pose or what they were capable of at higher levels of warfare, particularly at the beginning of this war.
It is as slippery a slope to under estimate the comparative tactical capabilities, as was demonstrated by many experts before this war.  They failed to downscale their strategic and operational assessments and we saw pretty quick the results on the ground quickly failed to meet predictions.  Hell three days into this thing we knew all of the higher level assessment were off because of what we saw on the ground.
Underestimating cuts both ways.  It is just as dangerous to try and take tactical shortfalls and upscale them directly onto the operational and strategic levels.  We have witnessed too many brilliantly conducted strategic campaigns with low quality forces in the VEO space to fall for that one.  Russian tried a form of combined arms that simply did not work; however, they still translated that into limited strategic/operational objectives.  
It was the Ukrainian way of war, supported by the west, and some emerging realities of warfare that broke the Russian system.  Ukrainian forces learned faster and better.  Without western support would we be talking about a Ukrainian offensive at all?  Without Ukrainian fast development of capability?  No, the RA was a hot mess and is a dumpster fire at this point but that was not the determinative factor in this war.  They had enough mass advantage, as ugly as it was, that if this was a battlefield of even a decade ago they might have pulled it off.  This is the biggest problem with the “Russia Sux” narrative, it is far too easy an answer.  It misses a lot of nuances and complex factors that we have literally been tracking right here.
The RA was a fumbling mess but it was at the gates of an enemy capital.  They still are resisting and will likely still be on occupied ground by this winter.  What I am on the lookout for are signs the Russians are actually learning.  For example, they bought a bunch of Iranian UAVs but they are using them as ersatz cruise missiles, not to improve their C4ISR game…which is a good sign they are still not learning.
Finally the biggest reason I am firmly against the “Russia just sux” narrative is that it encourages us to stop learning.  If that is the definitive unifying theory of this war then all phenomena can be explained by it, we have nothing left to learn.  This does nothing to inform us on the direction modern war is heading nor how we need to start thinking about it because it all boils down to “Russia Sux!”  Well 1) Russia is sucking but not everywhere, 2) that does not explain everything we have been seeing and 3) there are things happening in this war that “cargo cult” does not explain and we are way off if we start to thinking that way.

Zeleban and Haiduk, these were excellent posts. We lacked detailed Mashoviets analysis here.
Something broke this railway in Belarus. Curiously if they were Ukrainians or locals. Guys from MotolkoHelp by this time are largely on emigration or in prisons, and it is only 20 km from the border.
Speaking of which, there are reports that Belarusians did moved part of their mobilized troops from the border.

Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn

Killcullen is an expert on COIN (or at least as far as we got one in the last round) and was trying to translate that cache into Grey Zone and now modern conventional war.  Biggest problem is that none of the theories translate well between those arenas.  This is odd given that he wrote about complex warfare in the early days (wiki says he was sole author but in uniform things really do not work that way).
He is another really smart, highly educated and experienced expert who got this war wrong, largely because they have been in a war like the in Ukraine about as many times as the rest of us….never.  They employed old metrics of success/failure to make their judgements and were way off.  I suspect most will be big enough to admit it and the really good ones will spend a lot of time figuring out why they were so off the mark - expect a LOT of post-Ukraine war books.
Personally, I would write about this thread itself and how stuff like this was happening everywhere.  Open source analysis was all over the place but in some places they got a lot more right than wrong and that is worth following up on why.  Was it micro-perspective based on wargaming?  Was it the mix of expertise and backgrounds?  Was it having the right people like Haiduk on the ground pulling in stuff?  I am not sure but even with our recent “Russia sux” leanings this thread was very accurate and often contrary to the experts getting paid to dot his out there.

I was born and grew up in former Yugoslavia (not Serbian) which does make me quite partial to Ukrainians. I checked with my former coworkers of Ukranian origins and they fully endorse the following:
https://www.patreon.com/uaexplainers
21 HOURS AGO
9 things people still don’t get about Ukraine
Thoughts from a bunch of stubborn Ukrainians after eight months of the invasion. Feel free to share this with people who still find it hard to understand why Ukrainians think or act in certain ways.
1. Ukraine will never surrender.
This is an existential war for Ukrainians. If we stop fighting, our homes will be turned into rubble, our children will be taken away, and our people will face mass terror. Every place that experienced Russian occupation in Ukraine has a similar story to tell: a story of mass graves, torture chambers, filtration camps, and forced deportations.
All that means that Ukrainians are prepared to fight no matter how long it takes – because they are fighting for survival. Nobody “makes” Ukrainians fight – not the government and most certainly not the Western arms. With or without military or political support from the democratic world, Ukraine will keep on resisting – because we are fighting for our right to exist.
For us, the reality of perpetual military resistance is more acceptable than the reality of the Russian occupation.
2. None of us is okay – even if we say we are.
In the first weeks following the February 24 invasion, Ukrainians were in a state of shock and terror. The shock passed, but the collective trauma never started to heal. Every day people across Ukraine keep dying from Russian shelling. Every week new stories of horror of Russia’s genocidal campaign emerge. Each week brings a new little catastrophe – and every week a little part of us quietly dies inside.
This has become the new norm Ukrainians are learning to navigate. So, when you ask a Ukrainian friend or colleague whether they’re okay, keep in mind that this question has lost its meaning to most of us. We are not okay and we don’t know if we’ll ever be okay again.
But we keep holding on. In a way, trying to be okay as Ukrainians is the final act of resistance against Russia’s attempt to wipe out everything that is Ukraine.
3. Ukraine is fighting against Russian colonialism, not just Putin.
Putin may have pulled the trigger, but the root of the invasion lies deeper than the current regime in Russia. For centuries, Russia has led colonial conquests from Eastern Europe to the Pacific Far East. It conquered and assimilated multiple indigenous peoples – and exterminated those who resisted.
Russian colonialism remained largely under the radar this whole time, and its crimes are much less studied. As a result, the Russian imperial worldview has remained unchecked and unchallenged – and has expressed itself in multiple invasions since 1991: Transnistria, Ichkeria, Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.
The war might be paused when Putin’s regime implodes, but Ukrainians know all too well that a lasting peace is only possible with a decolonized and disarmed Russia that rethinks its past and future.
Until then, the untamed beast of Russian colonialism will seek to continue its imperial conquest in Ukraine and elsewhere.
4. Russian-speaking Ukrainians are not “more Russian.”
Yes, most Ukrainians are bilingual. Yes, 26% of Ukrainians are Russian-first speakers and 27% speak an equal amount of Russian and Ukrainian in their daily lives. But do you know why?
While some foreigners still believe that it has mostly to do with ethnicity and political ideology, the widespread use of the Russian language in Ukraine is mostly the result of centuries-old Russification policy.
Since the 19th century, Ukrainians were deliberately banned from using their language in education, labor, and public spheres of life. The Russification process prevailed throughout Soviet rule. As a result, millions of Ukrainians switched to Russian and deliberately hid their Ukrainian traces. And Ukraine learned to exist successfully as a nation of bilinguals.
So, if you meet Ukrainians who speak Russian in their daily lives, do not assume they are “more Russian” than any other Ukrainian or that they support Russia in any way. They probably have a more interesting story to tell about language and identity – just ask them.
5. Ukraine never had a Nazi problem.
Not only Nazis in Ukraine had nothing to do with Russia’s invasion, but the entire notion of Ukraine being run by the far-right is and always has been ridiculous.
The story of a “dangerous Nazi regime in Kyiv” has always been nothing more than a Russian propaganda myth. The idea of “Banderites” running amok was first voiced on Russian state TV when Ukrainians went to the streets to protest against a corrupt dictatorship in 2013. As Russia invaded and destabilized parts of Ukraine in 2014, it kept weaponizing and feeding the Nazi myth thus justifying its involvement and legitimizing the occupation.
Ukraine’s far-right movements have always been marginal and never had more than 5% of public support combined. Unlike many European states that do have a problem with far-right populism or Russia – a country running on aggressive fascist ethnonationalism for decades – Ukraine never really had a Nazi problem.
There is nothing humane or intellectual in trying to justify a brutal genocidal campaign by parroting propaganda claims crafted by the Kremlin. At this point, anyone trying to counterbalance Russian war crimes by appealing to the “Nazis in Ukraine” narrative is either a paid Russian shill or just a useful idiot. There is no point talking to these people anymore – we just need to stop providing them with a platform for spreading fascist propaganda.
6. Ukraine is a democracy. Zelensky acts as our representative.
Ukraine is not perfect. The issues with social trust, corruption, and poor state management have persisted for decades and hurt our country in various ways. But Ukrainians always fought back whenever authoritarianism loomed over: they protested in 2004 after a rigged election, and overthrew a corrupt wannabe dictator in 2014.
And yes, Ukraine still has a lot to improve – which would have been a lot easier if we didn’t have to constantly defend ourselves from Russia’s territorial aggression since 2014. But despite an external threat, Ukraine remained devoted to democratic values and reforms.
Not many people understand that Zelensky – a President who received 73% of the public’s vote in 2019 – always speaks and acts on behalf of the Ukrainian people. Following the full-scale invasion, Zelensky’s actions received praise and support from 91% of Ukrainians.
There has never been such a clear connection between the President and the people in Ukraine – and there are probably not a lot of examples of such political unity in modern-day democracies. All notions of Zelensky forcing anything onto Ukrainians are completely out of touch with reality.
7. We will not shut up. Not anymore.
For too long, the Ukrainian perspectives were silenced by Russia and pro-Russian sentiments around the globe. Like many other nations colonized by Russia, Ukraine had to shut up and, at best, politely debate whatever Russians had to say.
This colonial legacy has stayed long after 1991. Ukrainians were consistently denied agency: their pro-EU and pro-NATO choices were explained through conspiracies about the “US and NATO aggressive expansion.” Discussions about Ukraine often happened without Ukrainians themselves but with well-established carriers of the Russian colonial views on Ukraine.
All of this must remain in the past. We will not shut up and listen to another round of Russian imperial bull****, casual tone-deaf Westsplaining, or another Russian state-sponsored gaslighting campaign.
As the genocide against our people continues, we will remain unapologetically Ukrainian – and we will make sure our voices are loud and clear from now on.
8. Yes, we think all Russians are responsible for the war.
Ukrainians do not blame just Putin or the elites for the war – we blame the entire Russian nation. Putin and his cronies do not personally launch high-precision missiles at residential buildings. They don’t torture and mutilate civilians living under occupation. They don’t take away Ukrainian children and don’t try to “re-educate” them. They don’t loot, rape, and murder us. They don’t attack Ukrainians abroad or online. Ordinary Russians do all those things. All while the rest of them are silently and passively going along with the genocide for 8 months – or running away from their country and responsibility.
Those who fight against Putin’s regime carry the burden of responsibility as well. Even if they tried to make it right – they failed, and that’s just a fact. They failed as a state, as a society, and now millions of Ukrainians are suffering from genocide because of this ongoing collective failure.
Until Russians recognize and own this political responsibility, there is nothing for us to talk about. Ukrainians have the right to a safe space without Russians – without their point of view, narratives, or offers to help. And there’s nothing hateful about that. It’s a matter of personal safety and healing trauma.
Keep in mind that, unlike most people around the world, Ukrainians have lived close to Russians for centuries. We speak and understand their language – and we can follow their conversations on social media and in real life. We know how xenophobic, chauvinistic, and cynical the average Russians are. And we perfectly realize how their imperial attitudes have made this war possible in the first place.
9. Ukrainians are afraid of what comes next. But we won’t surrender to our fears.
Some people think that Ukraine’s stubbornness may lead to a full-blown world war or a nuclear catastrophe. What these people fail to understand is that Ukrainians want peace more than anyone in the world. It’s our homes getting pillaged. It’s our children being murdered.
The only country that tries to occupy a sovereign state all while blackmailing the rest of the world with nuclear catastrophe is Russia. Like it or not, the genie is out of the box – Russia is already a fascist dictatorship on nukes that invades its neighbors. It is already a threat to global security – and this has nothing to do with the way Ukraine resists. The entire notion that Ukraine can “escalate” the war by defending itself from an invasion within its internationally recognized borders is just absurd victim-blaming.
Ukrainians are afraid every night as we go to sleep and every morning while reading news of more death and destruction. But if we let our fears consume us, Russia will most likely win, and its illegal invasion, genocide, and nuclear blackmail will be rewarded. And this outcome is exactly what leads to another world war.
As Dmytro Kuleba recently said on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, “It’s absolutely normal not to have fear, yet to be afraid.” And that is exactly how it feels to be Ukrainian these eight months.