rocketman

Payback?
 

These are the same folks saying we can't possibly let Ukraine shoot DPICM at the murderous B$###^#^&&S who trying to kill every man one woman and child in the country. A fact they proved again TODAY. I will let this go just as soon as we ship the bleeping shells.

Look fair points and I do not want to punish counter-thinking, that is not what we are about here.  However, it really needs to be based on some fundamental indicators.  We would need to see a shift in RA capability on a systems level.  A few TU22s with napalm does not an effective CAS program make.  In fact given that platform we are more likely going to see incendiary terror attacks because Russia is all “FU LOAC!” -  note: see no-normalization, which is no doubt Putin’s plan as he does not want Russia to have a viable out as it would undermine him.
I do want to unpack just one thing further - the Putin Line.  Ok, so obstacles are basically inert in reality.  They cannot move or cause effects at range.  They exist solely to create enormous friction on an opponent in a very narrow window.  When properly supported this can be decisive as a smaller force can really cut a larger force to pieces.  Problem - you need well coordinated and agile smaller forces.  When it comes to quality capability Russia has the smaller force.  Guns that can rapidly respond and shoot and move.  C-move forces that can quickly reposition.  
The RA has basically been throwing up all over itself for over a year. The quality forces it needs to actually exploit those narrow windows of opportunity are in the minority.  Instead they have wads of infantry stuffed into holes and even those are mauled up.  When I saw Russia attacking this winter, I was shocked (and probably should not have been).  It is pure madness to bleed out a force on useless objectives when one is trying to freeze a conflict in place and play a long game.  So now the RA is badly beat up.  It has lost a lot of operational connective tissue and enablers it simply cannot make up for.  One could argue that Bakhmut was not a Russian Offensive as much as it was a Ukrainian shaping operation.
So what?  Well they can have mounds of dragons teeth and AT ditches but their ability to actually cover them with effective fires is highly in question.  These are really big frontages they have to cover off.  Further the west is pushing all the ISR to the UA so they can see the weak points.  The UA can also conduct deep strike campaigns to make things worse both before and during the offensive.  Then, as has been noted, once the shell is first rotted out, and then broken, there is nothing substantial behind it.
Finally, I am not even sure obstacles work like they used to anymore.  If I can see your entire operational system and hit it, I could stand back and hammer it until it collapses under its own weight and simply walk over the obstacles.  The actual ROI on obstacles as they stand now is in question.
This is a lot like back in the Gulf War.  People saw the massive, and amazingly professional Iraqi obstacle belts and got really concerned.  In the end it did not matter, massed AirPower followed up by GPS enabled manoeuvre made all that work useless.  I do not think the UA has the same level of advantage here but they likely have enough to crack this egg and make some break outs, likely in a couple locales.
Gonna be one for the books…and stay tuned in right here kids, we will be providing colour commentary the whole way!

After a year of war and at least tens of thousands of deaths, this really shouldn't get to me as much as it does. But it is taking every ounce of my willpower to contain my rage right now. At this moment I want nothing less than the blood of every single Russian. I want Putin's head on a pike. This was not a military target. It wasn't a barracks, or a communication station, or even any sort of critical infrastructure. This was a residential building. This wasn't an act of war. This was an act of terrorism.
And I know this isn't the first time this has happened. It's just another example of a long pattern of Russian crimes. I know that events like this are behind every report I read of continued Russian missile attacks. Not to mention that mass graves have been found in every single liberated area, complete with clear signs of torture.
I understand in theory why we don't want Russia to collapse completely. But right now I just don't care. I want Russia to be destroyed.

No they are not a 'state sponsor' they are a TERRORIST STATE.  My blood is boiling seeing this.  I will stop because all I can do is type strings of violence-tinged expletives......

When the hell are we going to get around to declaring Russia a state sponsor of terror.  JFC

You know the more I think about this the angrier I get.  This is an egregious double standard against Ukraine coming from the “experts”.
The course of this war for Russia - 
I will invade and crush you…fail
Ok, now I will create 20 sieges and crush you…fail.
Ok, getting serious now.  I will WW1 blast you in the South - we really only wanted that anyway, create cauldrons and crush you…fail.
Ok, ok, you asked for this, I will create multiple Stalingrads on defence and you will die trying to take your country back…fail.
Alright you have really ticked me off now, prepare for human waves and a winter offensive…fail.
That is it!  I am all out of patience and now you are in for it.  Prepare to die on the Putin Line!  (And western pundits are buying into it)
Meanwhile “Ukraine is barely hanging on and maybe we should rethink about support because they have not driven the RA into the sea yet.”  I mean c’mon, with friends like these…

The numbers/conditions are heavily dependent on how many people they are willing to publicly hang, or deliver to the Hague.
 
 

Innovation. 
 

So if I violently invade your house, kick you out, and when you try to get back, you get told "sorry, the people who live in the house decide", that is fine and dandy? Good to know, where do you live?
EDIT: the fact that the openly pro-Russia+pro-China commenter is actual Florida Man tickles my stereotyping brain in a funny way.

Moment of bomb explosion in Belgorod. At 0:10 the bomb hit parking pocket near the road and penetrates relatively deep to the ground. At 0:29 it blows up and throws a car on the roof of supermarket. 
Citizens were really lucky that bomb exploded in the depth - only two people were injured, nearby buildings got some damage, several cars were destroyed or damaged
 

In 2014 real number of referendum participants were not more 30-35 %. Many of populaion in Crimea, like on Donbas were indifferent Ukraine or Russia. Many thought Russia would give them Moscow level of salary with Ukrainian level of prices. Naive.  New "masters of Crimea" for nine years completely killed medicine, barbarically destroyed unique Crimean nature in many places, gave many coastal territories under elite real estate building, closing access to the sea for locals. So many Crimeans maybe not enough like Ukraine, but obviously silently hate Russia and many of them in local chats recalled with nostalgia for Ukrianian times, when foreign cruise liners came to Yalta, many rich tourists visited Crimea etc. So, when UKR troops will come to Crimea, most of Crimeans will do nothing due to their conformism. Russians, who settled in Crimea after 2014 will flee in panic. Who will not do this will be deported. Of course, there will be some "idea fighters", who will try to make guerilla, but this will not be "total resistance"   
PS. Just NEVER judge by ethnicity in Ukrainian question. This is almost doesn't work here. 

My take after 6 months peacekeeping in Bosnia in '93 -  Savagery is baked into human beings.  Sorry, there is no 'better angels of our nature'  My time in Bosnia dispelled that myth real quick.  The 'better angels of our nature' happens because we employ the frontal cortex to govern ourselves.  But warfare is very primal and hits the primitive emotional centers of our brains first.   Once that happens, the excesses of violence humans are capable of know no bounds.  Which is why in the 22nd century in the future, historians and people will be examining the genocides of the 21st century and asking the same questions.

AIr Forces report
Destroyed:
- UFO over Kyiv ) 

Looks like UKR artillery brigades now have heavy MLRS unit, like in Russian artillery brigades. 
Turkish TRLG-230 230 mm MLRS on armament of new-established 49th artillery brigade
TRLG-230 allows to shot with both usual unguided and laser guided rockets on 70 km. Last modification of rockets can shot on 150 km, but Ukraine got in November 2022 only 70 km version
 

Situation in Bakhmut
Last night and morning
Fierce fights on 1000 x 1000 m quadrate. Wagner all pulled to the center. They can't pass. It's not possible to shove endless number of troops in 1 km of front. Only, establishing reserves in close rear, being shelled by artillery. Northern and southern flanks without changes.
Mid day
We have stabilized railroad for now. The city is not encircled, we repelled them near Ivanivske and Khromove. Mother....rs ran down into the "Rose alley", but we knocked out them back, though they have there small gains. 
2 hours ago. 
Aviation, artillery of mother..rs is working heavy, they assault from the north very tough, all very hard.
 

Bradley in UKR pixel )

Unfortunate but understandable I suppose
 

what planet do you live on where "good Christian boy" precludes bizarre sexual behavior?  For all their ranting about gay drag queen groomers, the worst groomers I've seen are these "good Christian leaders".
anyway I doubt this idiot is gonna get hit with the full ton of bricks.  He wasn't passing to a foreign intelligence agency or trying to sell them,  just being really stupid.

DesertFox posits that it would be great if the UKR counteroffensive happens May 8/9 -- I agree that would be funny to see Putin doing his Victory Speech while all the world's news orgs are cutting over to discuss UKR breakthroughs.
But I wonder what things will really be like in the counteroffensive.  I don't think it will be one big thing, at least not for a while.  I think it'll be increased corrosive activity in many sectors w raids and capturing of various forward RU defensive positions, plus increased destruction of RU logistics/HQ.  Then more corrosion and more and more..... then somewhere we find out UKR has pushed ~10km here and there.  But will that be 'the counteroffensive'?  I suspect UKR will keep Putin guessing as to where the real attack will be and I think this will go one for weeks, not days, before we say "oh look here's the counteroffensive".  Putin's brain will be like a rat shaken by a rat terrier after a few weeks of this. 

Diagram of Russian radars and EW assets, destroyed month-by-month. Look at peaks, they preceded to UKR offensives in next month. And look at number of destroyed assets in March of 2023. Looks like we are close, but probably weather and delays with heavy ammunition deliveries delayed the start

Check-mate   (note is visegrad so pass the salt)
 

Probably an effort to make sure that frontal armor bug is truly quashed. Research on the actual thing 🤣