rocketman

Good news from the front, at least.  Dnieper bridgehead intact and expanding, Rivnopil taken, and RU TV says Bakhmut will soon fall -- such irony.  But the best news is UK assessment says RU has already deployed its reserves and has nothing left.  Let's hope this is true, as it would mean a breakout could happen.  The dang mines sound like hell on earth but even those are finite in depth. 
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177777/-Ukraine-update-While-Russia-falls-apart-Ukraine-makes-progress-on-the-frontlines
 

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

They have beaten the Russian Army to a pulp with our thirty year old leftovers, and actually indicted a justice  of their supreme court for corruption. Two accomplishments The U.S. has notably not achieved.

The Poles would be In Minsk in 3 days, The Finns in Moscow in a week. The would be shaking hands in front of the Winter Palace in St Petersburg in 24 hours, scratch that TWELVE hours. Literally, absolutely, nothing is holding Russia together except nukes. 

Instead of comparing Wagner's uprising to the 1917 revolution lets instead compare it to something a bit closer to home, the recent stalemate over US the debt limit. One side uses threats to throw the economy into default as a hostage bargaining chip. They make demands on issues unrelated to the debt limit. The two sides come to a mutual agreement and the debt limit hostage is released. It was never about the debt limit. Same applies to recent events in Russia. Threats to destroy Putin's regime was just used as leverage in negotiations over other matters. It was never really about overthrowing the government. That was just a convenient hostage in a blackmail scheme.

Color me confused.  Various factions of liars hammered out a deal to resolve this situation and everyone is taking whatever agreement as gospel.  Color me sceptical now.   How does anyone trust anyone to see this deal through?

We are just hours from "Das ist ein Befehl!" moment  
 

Wagners have big popularity among Russians, especially among teens and young people. Wagners media skillfully created aureola of "tough, but brave and fair warriors" led by successful businessman, which directly says sharp true, using obscent lexic. On background of fails, rigidity and total corruption of Putin's officials, created caste neo-feudalism, Prigozhyn managment system, directing for maximum effectiveness and creation of social lifts for all, who proved own effect in team work, considers as "story of success" and it just fasionable. Enough of people, even who position themeselves as "liberals" willingly buy different merch with Wagner attributes and images of Prigozyn (on t-shirts, for example).
Also Prigozhyn, who was convicted has popularity also because he stick to so-called "poniatiya" (in Russian jail slang is means "notions" - very tough codex of criminal life). For the nation with very big number of people, who were convicted, where even among teens is very popular convicts sub-cilture A.U.E. his behavior and his "criminal code of honor" is very close and more corresponds to notions of justice than official authotities. 
He also attractive for older (and younger) people, following to left ideas, due to his sharp anti-oligarch rhetoric (though he is oligarch himself) 
Putin's regime is failing in expectation of Russians, willing "tough ruling hand" and "we can repeat", so when new strong "alfa-male" appeared on horizon, many Russians will be glad to piss off their old "alfa-idol"  

If the rumours about Wagner approaching Krasnodar are true, then soon Russia will only have one railway line to supply all their forces in Ukraine…
I’d say it’s time for the AFU to start HIMARSing the s*** out of Starobilsk. Then the whole Russian frontline in the south will be cut off.

Pretty damned significant.  He could basically cut off Crimea’s back door for starters.  Which would mean all logistics would be reliant on the strategic land bridge or sea.   If he could spread the pain for enough he could severely cut off DPR/LNR - there are some corridors from the North they could try to push down.  
RA units would be in dire straights as they basically have very angry Ukrainians to the front of a very long front line, while Wagner plays merry f#ckery on what looks like about 80% of their LOCs.  Wagner would basically have them by the sustainment testicles.  
RA could not let this stand as it would severely risk collapse of their front line positions in about a week of full choke is applied.  Airstrikes are really problematic as a solution, not only because Wagner likely has AD but trying to figure out who is who on the ground gets really tricky.  
And then there is the SOF factor.  Wagner is not only “elite”, they are set up to fight like SOF which means highly distributed.  So we could see a boiling insurgency in front of the more conventional troops.  If Prig is smart he could turn this into a real play by simply threatening the entire RA in Ukraine.
Any chance him and Putin will make nice-nice and blame it on someone they can throw out a window?

Somewhat ironic that a group called Wagner is trying to pull a operation Valkyrie

If we take June 4th as the start of the counter offensive russia has lost 452 artillery pieces as reported by the Ukraine armed forces. Even if it is only half that number this is very unsustainable for russia.
 
https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_puy9yu3a6c?s=q6WS0kQJzRg

Looking at the whole year the artillery destruction began at the beginning of May

There are many reports about essentially every military aged male in the L/DPR being dead, wounded, captured, or in the case of the very lucky fled to another country. The defenses in front of Donetsk itself may just be so undermanned that the quantity of trenches and concrete just doesn't matter anymore. Breaking thru at Bakmuht, and then going behind Donetsk city to cut the land bridge would be the power move of all power moves. Russian logistics would just dissolve, never mind the morale.

Main structure was hit after all.  Excellent! 
You can see the damage to the support structure, beyond. That is an incredibly long distance to still have that sort of effect. 
Christ what a weapon. 
 

Just my thoughts. I think Prig is working to save Putin and in doing so creating further opportunity for himself. He is telling the people that Putin was lied to by the FSB and MOD. This gives Putin the out that he needs. When stuff is terminally sideways Putin can ruthlessly purge the MOD and any rogue FSB elements left as well as anyone else he wants to tie to the conspiracy. Then he can pull what is left of the RA back into Russia and announce how he was misled and fooled by the bad actors he just had shot against the Kremlin walls. How they were responsible and did it because of whatever reason (greed, hate, or even a planned military failure that would dethrone him) and that he figured it out and is now, once again, saving the Russian people from a horrible mistake. 
Prig and Kadryov are close supporters of Putin and both have been naysaying the MOD for awhile now. My vote for the main scape goat is the MOD with a splash of FSB. I could see this all happening as a play to save Crimea, so possibly this summer. Putin announces withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk as well as any other occupied territories, except Crimea. He will use all his tankies to put pressure on the west and therefore Ukraine to cease hostilities. If we see an uptick in the propaganda when the RA really starts losing it will be a good sign that something along these lines is being prepared. 
His hopes are that the Russian people will believe his lies and he will remain in power, his well funded supporters in the west will parrot his lies and have a cooling affect on Ukraine, and that his apology for the schemes of others, not him, will allow the war to end with Crimea still Russian. 
So who strikes first? Putin or the MOD? The MOD have to realize they are the in the cross hairs and if they don't act first it will be all over. Will it happen after the first large scale collapse, or will it be when the RA has totally collapsed? 

Result of this night strike. 13 launched from 4 Tu-95, 13 shot down. Most of missiles were intercepted over Khmelnytskyi obblast. Probably Russians tried to hit Starokostiantyniv airfield, the base of Su-24, carriers of SS. 

Ref ZNPP,  all you have to do is imagine what a vindictive, bigoted,  8 decades old sociopath would do, with zero possibility of personal repurcussions. 
The prevailing winds (prevailing, not permanent) blow S/SE,  ie towards Russia but across Russian controlled Ukraine, and likely not towards Central/Western Europe. At least initially if timed right,  and afterwards WTFC. 
So if you're a total ****bag and you want to insta-scorched-earth an entire region you've conquered but are about to lose - and you don't care about your own regions that will be affected (because Propaganda) - well, you can't do much better than blowing the ZNPP. 
The bastards will do it out of pure spitefulness, blame Ukraine and scream that the war should end because Now Things Have Gone Too Far. 
Russian Army losses are irrelevant to Putin,  (there's always more zombies) and ZSU would find it difficult to operate in the affected areas. 
ZSU offensive stalled/stopped = Win 
Ukraine loses entire SE as a viable economic region = Win 
NATO "can't"  claim a nuclear  attack = win 
(and China will agree,  so no pressure from there,  = win) 
Russian Army is "undefeated"  = Win 
Russian Army is weakened politically = win
And Russian Army losses,  or the Donbass population, literally don't matter to him. 
Time this with a Trump/DeSantis win in November and you've got the makings of a geopolitical kidney punch to Ukraine, possibly leading to Zelenskys luster in elections. 
I'm not seeing many negatives for Pootler. He just needs the Russian army to retain control of the ZNPP,  which is very likely, even if isolated. Everything else is losable and he, in his mind,  will still win. 
 

Related.

Infrastructure is like any other system.  Hit a single node and the system can surge to repair it quickly.  Hit more nodes and the system takes longer to repair.  Hit enough nodes and the system starts to fail.  The ability to repair transport infrastructure relies on transportation infrastructure.  Hit it hard enough and repair capability has to “literally” repair its own way into the system.  There comes a point when the system fails completely.  The question is, “what does it take to push the system to failure?”

Just a reminder...
 
 

Pushing just hard enough to provoke the Russians into suicidal counter attacks seems like the ideal strategy actually. 

"The way our officers and soldier fight will be studied in every academy in the world"
Well, he is right but not in the way he thinks.