rocketman

Newsflash: if there's a nuclear exchange nothing matters.

I would never risk myself or family getting incinerated on behalf of eastern Ukraine and every single person who has two brain cells to rub together thinks the same. Your bloodlust and suicidal tendencies exist only on paper.

This is both shaping and first phase of offensive simultainously. Now we concentrate a pressure on two main sectors - very narrow section between Robotyne and Verbove, the second - more wide section on V.Novosilka salient. And two auxiliary sections, directed to Vasylivka and Polohy. If the enemy has so strong minefields and fortifications we have to try to breach it in narrow places - meter by meter, instead to throw several brigades on mines and ATGM positions on large part of front. So, the same 47th and 65th brigades doing now "a shaping operation, but along with this its also breaching skirmish line and securing the corridor, which already is demining by our sappers. I think, when we will come to main line behind Robotyne - Verbove line (or even breach it), some reserve forces will be directed through this corridor to operative space.  
BTW, even our experts recognize, both UKR and RUS armies Commands lost old Soviet capabilities to provide mass combined arms operations  

And another key takeaway here is that this is not Hollywood. In a Hollywood movie the good guy is protected by the script that says in the end standing up against the bully has to be rewarded.
No such protection in real life because real life is unfair. The only question here is if Putin and his regime have the nerves to see it through to the end or if they are bluffing. The nature of the "game" is that we only know it was a bluff once we call it. If it wasn't then we stood up to the bully but noone is rewarded. We simply all lose.

Maybe a year ago I saw a stunning security-cam video of a couple that had a row with their bully-neighbor. After already months or years of tension, this argument was about the placement of garbage-containers.
After a few minutes of discussions, things heated up and yelling turned into screaming, anger into hate. Shoving became pushing and throwing of objects started. Neither the couple, nor the bully-neighbor showed any restraint.
Suddenly the bully walked away, back to his garage, but the woman from the couple kept screaming and throwing things, even when the bully disappeard in his garage. Where he picked up his assault rifle and then reappeared.
Well now.. instead of running away, or running for cover and calling the cops, that woman thought something like what you just wrote:
"We'll never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it",
and like you she thought that being a little more agressive towards the bully would not escalate.
She walked, screaming and yelling, up to the bully with the gun and, how surprising, got shot. Not fatally wounded she tried to crawl away, and her husband ran towards her to help. But the bully oh so calmly shot both off 'm point blanc until his magazine was empty. Then he went into garage, reloaded, and blew his own brains out.
That woman found the red line by inching towards it..
 
 

Maybe not initially but that's the whole point.  Escalation i is not a great metaphor because it's really Descent - slipping down a slope that has some grab-holds for a while but then -  an abyss,  with no more breakfast waffles & syrup for anyone. 
In Ireland there's the famous Cliffs of Moher. Theyre freakishly high and because they're coastal there's always a wind of some strength -  from three directions - from the land out to sea, from sea to land and from the bottom of the cliff upwards.
You can get right up to the edge and because they're sheer you can lean slightly over and look straight down. The second you do that the landward wind is pushing you forward and the seaward winds are pushing you back while the wind coming up the cliff is actually pulling you out. One extra strong gust by anyone of those unpredictable winds throws you off balance and down you go. It's a known phenomenon and catches tourists every year. You can safely walk up to the edge, but once you start looking over you are taking a real,  fatal risk.  
That's how I view Nuclear use -  descent in nothingness. 

The West might not think it is in war with Russia, but Russia for sure is in war with the West. Not only do they say that like twice a day, their actions show it.
For example, the grain deal. Putin is attacking Ukraine's ability to sell grain, to cause famine and instability in Africa and Middle East, with the objective of causing refugee crisis - and those refugees will all try to get into EU, which would cause instability, get more power to fascists on his payroll, etc.
It's not a new tactic, they have been doing things like that for years, up to and including Belarus literally getting people in Middle East on planes, flying them to Belarus, driving them to Polish border and forcing them to cross, just to cause trouble And of course there are many other ways Russia and its allies are attacking the West - from disinformation to oil prices.
But some parts of the West are being suicidally stupid. They are shouting "I'm not in a fight" while the other guy is swinging for them. I do not understand why they have to lie to themselves. But they do.
Ultimately Russia is not that strong. But China will ramp up what Russia is doing now, and they will crush us if we don't give up this stupid, self-destructive pacifism.
But we won't. People would rather die than have to face they have been wrong. See Climate Change for the same example.

A newly arrived forumite reported a building texture issue. @ZarasthutaMG42
a file naming error was spotted and fixed.
Here is the repaired file you can grab and put in your CMRT z folder. 
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/4k81ubcydxhhc5ghygik5/building008-roof-02-germany-snow.bmp?rlkey=c9l8mbwd8vd5qhairn05f373e&dl=0

"The Battle of Tukums" campaign update relates solely on the first mission. Changes make the mission a touch easier by reducing some Soviet forces on the map and making the briefing clearer that there are reserve forces for your side. The player will still need to be aggressive and you their vehicles a bit unorthodox manner to push through. The forces in this first mission are not heavily relied upon for success in follow on missions.

Only those that make it to adulthood are able to marvel at how they got there.

LOL!
 
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1682017975572766722?s=20

One more examples of Bradleys toughness - this one got direct hit from the tank gun, but kept driving capabilities
The guy Sergio from 47th brigade: "This is my company, there weren't dismounts inside, the crew is intact, the vehicle now under repairing "
 

Of course, Slavic settelmnent names are like abrakadabra for western readers, especially if it has more that 15 letters ))), but yes each name of city, town and village can be roughly translated in English. 
Urozhayne is adjective, so it better to translate not like "harvest", but "fruitful"  ) Though, of course geographical names aren't translated, even partilly like Velyka Novosilka can't be Large Novosilka ) - full rough translated name will be "Large Newcomerville" )
Typical Ukrainian village or rarely setlement/town name has ending -(il/in/ian/iv)ka. Then this in noun. It consists from some significant part and the ending. This "-ka" usually means founding /belonging/first settlers name/name originated from some charakter - so, for example Ivanivka - "Ivan's village", "originated from Ivan", "belonged to Ivan" or Dubivka - "originated from oaks".  Nesterianka - "originated from Nestor"
Some villages and towns rarely have only significant word, without ending.  For example Kopani  - old Ukrainian word "Kopan' ", means "the pit for keeping a water or the well without the frame", so it translated like "Waterpits", or Lyman - despite this word is equal to "liman, firth" for Donbas it has local means "the lake". Or Tokmak - name derived from name of the river Tokmak, which has turk origins means "poll/butt"
Many villages have endings in the names "-le", "-ne", "-te", "-s'ke", "-ve", "-che" and then this is just adjectives. Verbove - from "verba" ("willow"). Sometime it has means of belongings like "-ka". If Ivanivka is "originated from Ivan", that "Ivanivs'ke" is "belonging to Ivan". Robotyne, btw, it more similar to the noun - it's from the word "work", so maybe "place of [field] work", but I think it likely was initially Russian name "Rabotino" more typical for Russian names, which was just translated on Ukrainian manner.   

I have no idea if Ukrainians will produce them in numbers soon or at all, but if they do, since this is a homemade product, it would alleviate my worries about the safe Russian hinterland.
So I can only wish for a production target of 100 per month.

Well that and the Chinese invasion of Vietnam was in 1979...I mean seriously who in the US was going to support Vietnam against China back in 1979?  This entire war was viewed through the Cold War lens (a very different world order) and was basically "commies killing commies...fine."
Ukraine is a European nation bordering on a NATO nations.  I strongly suspect if Russia invaded Uzbekistan we likely would not have raised more than the usual fuss and stern looks.  However Ukraine is in our sphere and as such was a direct affront to the "system" - tell me Putin was not thinking exactly this when the bright idea fairy landed.
If Ukraine had folded up, I strongly suspect we would be supporting one helluva insurgency right now a la Afghanistan 1980s.  Same reasons, longer road.  There is no such thing as a "humane war" or war for "humane reasons', we learned that one the hard way in the 90s during our Savage Wars of Peace days.  Political, strategic or cultural interests always get in the way.

This would be the part about how this war is about a lot more than Ukraine trying to defend itself.  To be entirely brutal (yet accurate), this was became a major opportunity after about Apr 23.  An opportunity to knock Russia back in line with the international community and a global status quo that has endured for about 30+ years.  Russia was dumb enough and ill-prepared enough so the West scrambled for the chance at a nasty proxy war that 1) would not lead directly to NATO being pulled in/WW3, 2) could be contained to Ukraine and not blow up and out from there, 3) shore up NATO in both membership and funding, 4) result in regime change in Russia that we could do business with but not risk security everywhere, and 5) did not turn Russia into a complete freefall.  Not a great or easy opportunity but there it is.  The other option was to simply let it happen but that was simply letting things slide too far.
This is why we are doubling down on Ukraine - intersection strategic interests.  Not because we like them so much, or really care about their suffering.  There are lists of nations who were (and are) burning right now that we averted eyes and changed the channel.  There are conflicts that we stayed out of that were worse than Ukraine but that happened on the periphery.  Russia in Ukraine is right smack dab in the wheelhouse of challenging how we thought the world works.  We thought that nation states negotiating with war was over.  Intra-state and non-state, sure and nasty business "over there".  To have an international great power go "nope, we like the way of the gun and there is nothing you can do about it" risks the entire scheme.
So, no, we are not sending billions in military support or opening up our entire ISR architecture to Ukraine because it is the right thing to do in defending "the little guy".  Politicians are going to spin it that way because people buy it.  But this is harsh calculus time - we defend the scheme or risk it failing entirely.  Ukraine was the opportunity of a generation to have a war with Russia without really having a war.  Don't believe me, if Azerbaijan invades  Armenia again does anyone think they are going to see this sort of heat and light?  Why?  Because the rules based order can tolerate small side powers scrapping away, but one of the big boys...nope. 

The Russians are causing the West FAR more damage and trouble than most people realize. They do everything in their power to undermine our institutions, ideals and politicians. It has always been that way, also after the Cold war. They are our most dangerous enemy. And yeah, able and willing to blackmail us with their nuclear arsenal. 
As long as Russia exists, nobody can exhale with ease. That's what's at stake here, once and for all weaken them beyond recognition, so they can't even threaten their own people anymore.

This is the view from Western Europe. 
For most people in the Baltics and Central Europe it is absolutely clear, that the Ukraine is fighting this war on our behalf. Every Russian soldier killed by the Ukrainians is someone our soldiers will not have to shoot at. I have a son of military age and another one who will be in a couple of years, so as callous as it sounds, I would gladly have the Ukrainians fight that fight for our money.
For what it is worth, I do not exactly understand why countries in Europe further to the West are not worried more. We are the next border after Ukraine, but the Netherlands are not exactly on the far side of the Moon either. 

Would this qualify as chemical warfare?

Russian S-400 launcher, 92N6E radar and KAMAZ supply truck were destroyed with HIMARS strike. It's claimed exactly this launcher hit pizzeria in Kramatorsk. Russian sources tell about 3 KIA.


 

According to Ukraine, this was the submarine commander responsible for the missile strike on Vinnytsia, almost exactly a year ago.
You might remember the picture of of the baby stroller with little feet sticking out of it.

LMAO
 
 

If you do some testing, the speed difference is very significant, especially with the heavier guns.

It means that the correct SOP is to unlimber behind a slope, then set up and push it 1-2 action spots forward into position. The time not to do this is if you don't have the terrain to conceal the carrier vehicle nearby.

Edit: He used a ton of emojis and symbols, I can't get it to post as plain text in any legible way, sorry.

LOL!