dan/california

Silly propaganda? Ha! Here is irrefutable evidence!! This picture shows the UA conducting pre-flight inspections on their tac-bomber model. The soldier is from the 93rd Brigade so that explains their recent advances north of Kharkiv. The birds! The birds are pushing the RA back!!

They just don't make as much noise.

As discussed before to a russian the term "nazi" doesn't mean what it means to the rest of the world. So of course gullible people in countries yet to be invaded were like "if Russia screams about nazis on every corner - are there really nazis in $victim_country_name$?"
But to russians a "nazi" is literally anyone who refuses to submit to russian toilet-looting master race. And Russia is doing its best to make sure everybody knows that now.

A step forward, for a change. Hopefully more will follow:
 

OMFG GANDALF IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   MEN OF THE WEST RISE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Melitopol',+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+72300/@46.9283725,35.2438086,1271m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c2b1e224ede523:0xa1e1e16ff3a2914a!8m2!3d46.8550216!4d35.3586996
Zaporizhiiia to Melitipol is just about the hardest place for the Ukr too operate with their current AA set up. It is pancake flat and very little cover. Pushing the Russians back out of artillery range of Kharkiv, and then leaning on the supply lines to Izyum might just be a lot more doable

Yes, I think we're both on the same page that the Russians are
1. trying to 'secure' a new frontier along the Seviersky Donets and southern Dnipr and then
2. make enough crazy nuke noises that Western liberals poop their pants and pressure UKR to accept a cease fire and 'referendum'.
Here's Ed Lutttwak (no liberal!), calling for 'plebiscites':
https://unherd.com/2022/04/how-the-ukraine-war-must-end/
 
...And fine, all that certainly doesn't suit our Ukrainian friends here at all, but while sending you lots of lethal stuff is one thing, I must tell you there is very little stomach in the West for joining you in the 'our survival is on the line' category. Very few of my acquaintances pay the war much mind even though they know who the 'good guys' are.
So the pressure to accept a cease fire and 'end this' (i.e. get it out of the news and get back to doomscrolling about the slow rot of our various welfare states) will be substantial.
Also, a lot of the world (Asia, MEA) sees Ukraine as a US proxy, a stick the Empire is using to beat Russia. They would firmly back a cease fire, having no interest in a prostrate Russia.
This is why I continue to believe that time is NOT on Ukraine's side strategically, the way others here believe, and that a strong, early counteroffensive toward the Azov to retake the land bridge and place half the Russian invaders en prise is imperative, in spite of the military risks.
Izyum area is not a dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, but that long Kherson-Zaporizhe-Donetsk front *definitely* is. You simply cannot leave that in place, but you can't retake it without firm Western backing, intel, etc.
And the tide of that backing will ebb astoundingly fast once the Russians call for 'cease fire and negotiations'.  Nobody trusts them, fine, but believe me, the West will always go for the 'negotiated' way out and let the Ukrainians live with the consequences.  Ask the Koreans.
One man's opinion, and I guess time will tell.

So some advances toward Slovyansk by RU.  But as pointed out above, the terrain gets increasingly bad beyond Lyman, so would be even harder to keep going there. 
Meanwhile, there's report of big UKR advances NE of Kharkiv.  Any of you have any thoughts on what could be achieved NE/E of kharkiv to unhinge RU forces from Izyum and the Lyman fronts?  I am of course hoping for full Romanian collapse (ooops, donetz milita, not romanian collapse -- weird I keep making that mistake......)

'Dan' has your 6 (second tweet)
I hope @Battlefront.com doesn't mind me leaking a Level 5 screenshot of the CM Engine 3 here....

Ivan just doesn't *do* tactical dispersion, do he?

It's really "terribly important". As a part of continent it allows to move our economic zome further to the sea - during contest with Romania for the shelf, reach of natural gas, we proved in Internatinal Arbitration that Zmiinyi (Snake) is a continent, not a rock, as Romania insisted - this allowed to achieve decision, wich kept most part of the claimed shelf as Ukrainain economical zone
Zmiinyi also situates nearby close to traffic routes to our ports and not only ours. So, whoever conrols Zmiinyi, controls shipping to the the Black Sea and Danube ports. Radar, AD/artillery assets, small base for patrol ships - all this can provide this island.  

Gold. Although I'm not sure what the CI would make of it on a TEWT.

Why is everyone assuming this was a tube-fired mission? Based on the timing and pattern, I maintain it's a Grad/MLRS style hit.
Of course...Steve already said he thinks I'm wrong.
Artillery forensics is not my area of expertise. In fact, I fear I may know more about the Chinese housing bubble than I know about sheaf procedures.

Best wordo ever!🤣

Nice work!
I count exactly 40 dots...

I've been pasting select bits of information off this board to a 'standard' news site chat group and those posters are practically up in arms. Because none of what I'm posting resembles what they're reading in the usual American news outlets. They're still expecting Russia's grand eastern offensive to kick off soon, and for that other Russian army to to threaten NATO any day now.

Well don't feel sad (no don't feeeel saaad) because none outta three ain't bad....
-- Meat Loaf (RIP)

wouldn't that be a coup.  Could be possible if there was a meeting between the two.  One can dream.

Eh? Gerasimov?
 

No one has stood stronger, not once in the last 5,000 years.

What's the chance Ukraine combined a single precision strike in conjunction with a normal battery fire? One round to hit the building, the rest to make sure there was no place to run. I don't know what Ukraine has for precision ordnance or if differing  ballistics would make it difficult to coordinate with standard artillery fire.

JonS is the real expert here, but i want to throw in a little semi informed speculation. I think there were two batteries/sections shooting, and one of them was better than the other one. I agree with Steve that the first shell that hit the actual building was guided. But we won't know if was a vengeful God or a laser beam until someone tells us. Given that they got the General, maybe they will, eventually. So just going thru the film hit by hit. It really looks like there are two overlapping circles. The first one is 100% on target with the a second shell landing at the end of the copse of trees the building is in, and then after about 8 impacts rounds start landing in the field. I think rounds keep landing in the field after they stop hitting the copse of trees. My theory is that the intel was good enough to get an absolute max priority fire mission from everything that could reach. Either they were attempting a ToT barrage from two different locations, or if you are on team Steve regarding the guided round the other battery held back by 10 seconds or so. This would be to be sure no one ducked before the guided round hit. I have no clue if The Ukr is up to that level of coordination at this exact moment. Or If the FDC just put everything they had that could reach on the target and it all worked out.
 

JonS is the real expert here, but i want to throw in a little semi informed speculation. I think there were two batteries/sections shooting, and one of them was better than the other one. I agree with Steve that the first shell that hit the actual building was guided. But we won't know if was a vengeful God or a laser beam until someone tells us. Given that they got the General, maybe they will, eventually. So just going thru the film hit by hit. It really looks like there are two overlapping circles. The first one is 100% on target with the a second shell landing at the end of the copse of trees the building is in, and then after about 8 impacts rounds start landing in the field. I think rounds keep landing in the field after they stop hitting the copse of trees. My theory is that the intel was good enough to get an absolute max priority fire mission from everything that could reach. Either they were attempting a ToT barrage from two different locations, or if you are on team Steve regarding the guided round the other battery held back by 10 seconds or so. This would be to be sure no one ducked before the guided round hit. I have no clue if The Ukr is up to that level of coordination at this exact moment. Or If the FDC just put everything they had that could reach on the target and it all worked out.
 

Let's assume the Russians arent lying about a million Ukrainians in Russia now, how many Ukrainians lived in the occupied areas in total? Trying to figure out the suspected percentages between willing pro-Russian and unwilling, (but wouldn't willing pro-Russians stay on the occupied land?)(or do you suppose the supply situation is such that pro-russian civilians can't access Russian supply lines? That could explain some depopulation ongoing to safer locations with access to food and shelter.
I'm not sure Ukraine is gonna just let a million ****ing people disappear from Ukraine.

I mean ... the rounds have to land somewhere, and within the CEP the building is about as likely as any specific tree or specific piece of open ground. But, within the apparent CEP^ there is a lot of open ground, making it far more likely that some piece (rather than a specific piece) of open ground will be hit rather than the building.
It is ... curious that the camera was centred - and zoomed - exactly on the building. Granted, whoever was filming presumably knew there was an FFE coming, and what the point of aim was. Still, they appeared confident that the point of aim itself would be hit, rather than just the area around the POA.
On the other hand, assuming the building was the point of aim, then that's a good indication that Ukrainian gunners have solved the artillery problem. The mission looks like it's a Circular 200, which is no surprise as it delivers good shrapnel coverage across the entire area^^. However the MPI appears to be very well centred on the building, indicating that they have good survey and up to date corrections-of-the-moment; met, shell lot and charge variation, etc. Still, I'd have expected to see some air burst fuzing, and that appears absent.
 
^ Ie, the big circle where all the rounds land
^^ assume that int provided confirmation that something shiny was in the building. Cool, let's snot the building! Except, there is always stuff spread around that you don't know about and can't see - vehicles in hides, sections providing security, parts of the shiny thing split off and set up nearby for dispersion or because there isn't enough room, caches of fuel and/or ammo, etc. Slapping a Circular 200 down (instead of, say, a Converge just on the building) means you're likely to mess with the feng shui of all those other bits and pieces, as well as the shiny thing in the building.