Blazing 88's

The thing that doesn't get enough discussion is that ATACMS, in any version, is not just much longer range than GMLRS, it is just as responsive. I honestly don't know if Storm Shadow can be reprogrammed mid air with the Ukrainian set up, but you still have have an air tasking  order, and a strike package assembled and, and... Their is zero reason I am aware of that an ATACMS couldn't be on the way within five minutes of a drone or other ISR spotting a worthy target. It will push trains back to the Russian border, and perhaps the far reaches of Crimea depending on the model. 

Apologies if this has already been covered but if so I missed it (not unlikely). 
What we are seeing in Ukraine is pretty much the first widespread and numerous usage of drones, both for observation and for attack - sniping really, even if the sniping is dropping a grenade down a turret hatch, which is pretty impressive to me.
What we aren't seeing is the widespread deployment of drone countermeasures.... yet. Of course there are many types of drones, but most have some characteristics in common, such as optical sensors, a datalink, and an operator on the ground. And by their nature the smaller ones require the operator be reasonably close and not say, in Las Vegas, like some of the US UAVs.
Once a force devises and deploys some countermeasures on a wide scale, this drone effectiveness/tank replacement argument may well die down a lot, with drones becoming another complementary weapon system. 
Could an autonomous system be developed to track and then laser blind small drones that could be mounted on a vehicle, or even small enough that individual AFVs could carry their own? A laser powerful enough to actually disable the drone might require a dedicated vehicle. Don't know - not up on my laser technology. EW capability that could scan for the drone signal (you know it's emitting VERY close to you), and jam it. And yeah, I know all about frequency hopping transmissions, but that doesn't mean there isn't an effort to follow or counteract that, at least enough to disrupt, if not negate the transmission.
Can Russia develop and deploy systems like this in the midst of this war, in enough concentration to be very effective? I'm very doubtful of that. Could other countries already be working on solutions like this for the next conflict? Probably.
Like tank and anti-tank weapons, it will become an another arms race, with more capable and resistant drones and more effective countermeasures against them.
There is a constant similar race in the submarine world (which I'm more familiar with). Sound detection capabilities get better and better, and noise silencing technology gets better and better in order to better hide. Silencing technology is the US submarine world's most closely guarded secrets. 

Dave

Said to be M1A2 in Ukraine.  Appears to have some of the latest upgrades, including the Low-Profile CROWS.
 

Cmon. I'm specifically not saying, implying or inferring that. And you have to give a reason for why a heavy effect,  direct fire platform will have no use other than BECAUSE DRONES. 

and yet the countries at war do everything in their power to aquire new tanks, build tank factories and restore old and damaged tanks.
Enough evidence of FPV drones hitting a tank several times and it remains operational. Those 6 guys wont cross a field and blast through defences with their drone. They'll wound or kill a conscript, or lose the drone to EW and the front changes not by a single meter.
Imagine desert storm but with FPV drones?? Every tool has its use - and the men inside the systems put efforts into getting both, not either. Nobody is calling for Ukrainian battleships.
Had the Leopard/Abrams debacle been solved at Day1 of the war, we'd have seen Tanks rolling in a thunder down south to the coast last autumn blasting through conscript positions like they did up north. Wasting a year on political tip toeing for the biggest defensive line since ww2 to be build does not make the tank dead.
Its like claiming the role of attack choppers is dead, in the current situation, they are limited, reduce density of AA coverage and it'll turn back into the Afghanistan / Iraq turkey shoot videos where 2 guys in the air do what several companies would be needed for, with casulties.

Enough accurate, though he skipped details of street clashes before pro-UKR forces came to Trade Union House. He also didn't tell pro-Russians not only threw Molotovs from the roof of House, but shot with firearms (pistol or hunting rifle), killing and wounding several pro-UKR activsts.  
Odesa, Zaporizhzia, Mykolaiv, Kherson oblasts were saved from Donbas/Crimea scenario due to active resistanse of more organized pro-Ukrainian citizens, when police either withdrew itself from own duties under the pretext "do not escalate" or secretly or directrly like in Odesa took pro-Russian side. Though, only in Odesa all was so violent, in other cities the level of pro-Russian uprising was very minor and all ended maximum with facebeating.  
Most originally separatism was suffocated in Zaporizhzhia. A handful of vatniks who dared to came on meeting for "Zaporizhzhia People Republic" under cover of police just was surrounded by pro-UKR people and they were pelted with eggs and flours.

This humilitation of "Russian world" lasted several hours, if pro-UKR activists would have also feathers, that pro-Rusian participants would became look like Guybrush Tripwood from Monkey Island 3 "Do you have a.... MADRE DE DIOS! El Polo Diablo!!!"
This action got the name "Egg Sunday" 

Hilarious 
 
 

~Raises hand in the air~ I could ramble off approx. 50 prior to even thinking of El Alamein!
😊
We are out there!! 

~Raises hand in the air~ I could ramble off approx. 50 prior to even thinking of El Alamein!
😊
We are out there!! 

~Raises hand in the air~ I could ramble off approx. 50 prior to even thinking of El Alamein!
😊
We are out there!! 

~Raises hand in the air~ I could ramble off approx. 50 prior to even thinking of El Alamein!
😊
We are out there!! 

yes, one of the 'serious people', one of the enlightened ones, just now comes to realize this.  jeeeebus, now he'll f-ing lecture us all about it.  Like when Bret Stephens, editorial head of NYT editorial page, finally decided a couple years ago that climate change was real and serious and told us all how serious it was.  uhhhhh, mr arrogant dumb-ss, most of us have known that for a quarter century.  But, anyway, thank you Mr Friedman for letting us peasants know it's ok to know what we've all known the whole time.  dang, I'm a big salty today.  
On a happier note:
Blazing88s restores my hope for humanity.

~Raises hand in the air~ I could ramble off approx. 50 prior to even thinking of El Alamein!
😊
We are out there!! 

~Raises hand in the air~ I could ramble off approx. 50 prior to even thinking of El Alamein!
😊
We are out there!! 

Unmanned? Why must you stomp on my dreams of being a MechWarrior? 😀

Maybe it's time finally for the unmanned battlemechs to emerge and replace the tank, just need the artificial muscles that can carry the loads lol. Carry on, I'm playing a lot of battletech lately. 

I get that this is probably going to be a thing, as sad as it makes me.  But it does also say "make CM africa, CM 1941, 42, 43, where have proper fights w armor & men, as god intended.

Not heresy in the least.  The lines have not moved much despite all the action, no disputing that.  We have not seen an operational breakthrough, largely tactical pulses which have not added up yet.
So a couple thoughts/questions:
- If this whole offensive is a road to nowhere…why is the UA still pushing?  The UA has a lot to lose and knows that they must preserve their forces.  They cannot afford the human wave wastage Wagner and the RA demonstrated last winter.  Yet they are still pushing…why?  My only guess can be that they still see achievable objectives and their picture of the RA supports this.
- We have seen a lot of indications that the RA war machine is in trouble.  To the point that I am not even sure what is still holding it together.  This may be an example of that Russian steel everyone was going on about at the beginning of this war.  Right now the RA appears glued together by pure stubbornness.  Their losses have been historic and a lot of capability is simply gone.  The central question is, “are they close to tipping?”  No idea but I am pretty sure the UA and western military support “inside the box” have a much better bead.
- Ok, the UA offensive of 2023 fails…now what?  Well, we might have to start thinking about frozen lines and a much longer conflict.  So what does that look like?  How do we support that?  There is no “cutting and running” on this one yet, our sunk costs are too high and the opportunity to continue to cripple Russia too good.
One thing we do need to get out of our heads is the idea that “not retaking every inch of pre-2014 Ukraine = losing”.  That was a dangerous binary position to take and it will not serve well moving forward.  Losing is an Ukraine no longer able to decide when and where to prosecute this conflict.  Losing is an Ukraine no longer able to be independent of Russian Will.  Losing is western powers surrendering strategic initiative.
All war is negotiation.  With the other parties, with oneself and with the situation as it evolves.  My read is that Ukraine is continuing to negotiate from a position of strength and no matter how this year’s offensive turns out, if they can sustain that then we still have options.

3rd assault brigade had confirmed liberation of Andriivka. Yesterday the brigade refuted claims of MoD deputy Hanna Maliar, that the village under UKR control. UKR troops really were in the village, but premature statement has interfered to accomplish the operation. It's knowingly, on tactical level, information about changes on the ground comes to higher HQs with delay, because company/battalion commanders if they lost a ground try to restore situation and only after several failed attempts reported on higher level about troubles - they just fear they will be fu...d out by higher chief. But, when Russian higher HQs get information first about ground loosing from social networks or premature official persons statements, they fu.k out lower HQs at all, but have a time to conduct some counter-actions, if information confirmed. Yesterday Russians after Maliar statement launched fierce "last hope" counter-attack with intensive arty support and the could prevent our troops to take foothold in the village completely. Only during next 24 hours 3rd brigade completely liberated Andriivka and held on positions.
Brigade press-service claims during long battle for Andriivka they completely wiped out enemy 72nd motor-rifle brigade. Russian suffered heavy looses in personnel and command staff. It's claimed brigade recon chief and three battalion commanders were killed. At the final phase UKR troops encircled Russians in the village and completely eliminated them. Details, videos etc will be soon

😎

Some information on the Leopard 1 training in Germany.
- done by Danish, Dutch and German instructors
- basic course lasts 6 weeks with 6 days of training per week and 12 hours of training per day
- its the fifth rotation in its fifth week of training
- there were multiple gunnery runs this day. within these runs multiple states of equipment failure where simulated e.g. aiming with and without stabilization or worst case hand crank everything using the backup optical sight and try to score a hit while moving slowly
- Ukrainians stick to 3 tanks per platoon
https://www.youtube.com/embed/NdpHjoPkS8M
 
English subtitles are available


 

https://nafo.uk/@hanse_mina/111050653175033289
Those decoys look really well made. And as we know that Russians are incentiviced to report successful destructions of equipment it will be really interesting to find out after the war how effective those decoys are. 

I used to think so. But I am more and more convinced that Musk isn't actually all that smart. Just rich enough to hire smart people. The man renamed Twitter (one of the more recognizable names in the world) to X (a single letter which is impossible to trademark and which is literally used as a placeholder).

So this is what you got?  I teach “young warriors” and have led dozens in combat while you likely sat at home and yelled at the tv - you are no vet I can tell that from your first post.
Let’s stop the BS and call this what it really is - political platforming.  Your position is not all that difficult to read, pretty transparent.  Basically everything the current US presidential administration is doing is “wrong”.  “Right” is whatever “our guy would do as opposite”.  So President Biden is pursuing a deliberate incremental strategy to compress Russia, so your position is “more firepower” and “hard staring”.  Or you jump on the “this war is stupid, we must negotiate”.  Basically anything President Biden is doing is “wrong” and anything they are not doing is “right”.  That has been the sum total of your contributions to this entire discussing since you showed up (oh, and some bizarre social commentary on women and social justice for good measure).  That is it.  One long “very stable strategic genius” diatribe anchored on a single viewpoint.  If President Biden declared the US was going to “end this thing in 4 weeks” you would be here yelling that “this was the dumbest thing ever” and probably quote my points as why.
You know it is ok.  You are just another in a very long line of segments of the population that surrender their own agency in the face of uncertainty.  We invented the Church which has lasted over 2000 years on exactly that principle.  Agency and independent thought is to embrace uncertainty and most people really don’t want to do this, it is scary.
Problem is you wandered onto the wrong forum.  This place has been home to a lot of independent thought since before this war started. We have pursued the facts as we can find them and then conduct collective analysis and synthesis to try and establish a clear picture of what is happening.  No one here has surrendered independent thought to a political position.  We all have opinions, I for one think President Biden’s administration has done very well in managing this crisis.  Not perfect but considering we are well off the strategic map here, they have done as well as reasonably possible.  
I am not an American, I do not participate in your political process so I do not share your baggage.  I cannot fix you or even try to change your mind, you clearly have it all figured out.  But you are not going to find friends here. Your missionary work on this forum is a waste of time.  
But it is ok.  With this last, I promote you to Hot Thread “crazy guy”.  It is a honorary position that has been vacant since John Kettler left us (rest in peace John).  You can go on and on but we all know it is for entertainment purposes only.  I am even going to un-ignore you because I am going to be first to rub your unruly mop of hair and just smile at your incorrigible rapscallion ways.  Your are a stump thumping looney kevinkin, but you are our looney.  Try not to get banned because then we will have to find another.
 

I have largely ignored you because it is pretty clear that you are not in fact interested in actually learning anything on this forum.  However, in reality this is an honest question that some lurkers may also be asking.  Why can’t the US, or NATO or an alliance in between “win this war in 4 weeks and just end this brutal war?”  Don’t need an essay really:
-  Put the nuclear escalation to the side for arguments sake but we will come back to it.
-    A US direct incursion into Ukraine or this war is going to drive a massive amount of support into Putin’s arms, to the point he might actually get full mobilization support.  A fully mobilized and galvanized Russia is a scary beast particularly since they will likely be heavily backed by both China and Iran as they will see the entire expansion of the war as a chance to defeat the US by proxy.  So now the US has four weeks to push Russia out of Ukraine, could they do it?  Probably?  Would it end the war…no way.  It would likely expand it as Russia gears up for a serious fight because now it has reason to have one. The totality of your position is that you are in fact pointing madly at a “limited war” but your solution is “more limited war”…oh wait maybe you are not talking about a limited war.
- ok, to defeat Russia, truly defeat them, it means not simply driving them out of Ukraine.  It means total defeat of Russia as a nation.  The destruction of Russian Will to fight.  This means going into Russia itself and removing its ability to generate that Will.  So we are talking invasion, defeat in detail and occupation…of Russia.  The military force the US would need to do that is well outside the US military current envelope, we are talking millions of troops.  Let’s pretend Russia can be occupied, it is a big country (look at a map).  You now need to hold it until you can install a friendly government…and remember you brought up total war.  So the US and most of NATO would now need conscription to sustain a force that large…you feeling strong?
- “But we will stop at the border”, sure and Russia will now simply reload and incite as much violence and discontent in Ukraine…now filled with US troops.  What possible negotiated end-state is there where Russia can still function while massing for WW3? No, you cannot give Russia time to reload…that would be really dumb.  So now you would need to contain Russia…in the 21st century…with China on one of its borders…and Iran.  That is a massive problem.  The state sponsored terrorism issues alone will be intense.  Again, this is limited measures that won’t “end” anything but risk a lot worse.
- Back to occupation, the risk of a resistance from hell is incredibly high.  See the many lengthy posts on that issue.  Very angry and well supported by various powers an occupied Russia could make Iraq look like a weekend outing.  Oh wait, there is more,
- Russia might fly apart while you are trying to occupy it.  Not known for its shining unity, occupation could see Russia itself fly apart and the the US is trying to manage a civil war…and a possible insurgency.
- Ok, now the obvious one…WMDs.  Let’s pretend that Russia won’t use them on good old “Merican” boys as they counter attack into Ukraine and encroach on the Russian border.  They sure as hell will if the US invades Russian soil, which we have to now.  And even if they don’t there is no way in this universe we can guarantee we can secure them all.  Now we may have lose WMDs of many flavours lose in this mess.
To put it more simply and in words with as few syllables as I can: To defeat  Russia and end this war in 4 weeks the US would need to break Russia.  To break Russia is to engage in a major war, possibly global.  It would break the UN, it would shatter NATO because I can think of at least a dozen nations that would get off that train quickly.  Economically it would break the system as we are talking markets staring down the barrel of nuclear Armageddon.  Anything short of that is just more limited war with even slimmer margins than we are already on.
So when you declare that “the US could end this thing in 4 weeks” all you are doing is loudly announcing just how much you do not understand.  If you honestly want to learn, maybe stop typing and start reading more.