DavidFields

That is an excellent way to avoid the echo chamber trap - 10th man or red teaming.  Tricky and we have to be sensitive here as this war is still very real but were I the red team in the Ukrainian military staff what would I suggest to answer this?
First off we would have to make some big assumptions:
- Russians establish unity of command at the operational level.
- They sell the plan to an up until now impossible political level
- They actually start doing joint operations as opposed to what appears like three siloed wars.  So this means they actually get some sort of air superiority in a much smaller theatre.  And are able to integrate fires, while also getting a grip on the information architecture.
IF they could even do that halfway decent then they might be able to start prosecuting this war halfway sane, and that is a big "if".   Bit for the moment lets say they get it together, what next?
To my mind they want/need a stalemate they can negotiate from.  A lot harder now that they went all war crimey (dumb as well as immoral) but their best negotiating position appears to be one of "too costly to finish".  This is really a form of territorial denial that would force the UA to go on a long drawn out offensive to try and remove them.  So this means taking a very modest amount of gains, stuff that really matters and digging in, hard.  If they forward dump logistics and basically dig in WW1 style and hold on like a tick, they might just be too hard and costly to dislodge without the UA becoming so worn down as to risk losing what they have gained.  
But they need to drastically reduce their frontage again.  They are now looking "better" at "only" a 800km frontage but they need to cut that down even further.  Abandon this whole "pinch and encircle" nonsense, even if they do technically pull it off, they will never be able to control that whole area in the east - it is like trying to hug bees to death.  Get that frontage down to a few hundred kms, focus on that bloody land bridge and hold on.   It is a losing strategy but it may eke out a draw that the political level can upsell as a win and then try and figure out some sort of re-normalization, or how you become a province in China. - (seriously, we are talking operational and military strategy here.  Politically the Russians are totally screwed.)
That or we are at Hail Mary, miracle time.  Maybe they get lucky and actually pull off an encirclement that works.  Maybe they have held back a couple divisions of T-14 BTGs.  Maybe they unleash the werewolf hordes.  If Russia tries to play the same game that got them into this mess they are likely to fail harder.  Their troop quality is a mess, cohesion is a mess due to leadership losses, they have not demonstrated any shifts in logistical methods - so we can bet that once they boldly advance 50km they will start running out of gas.  Even if they get the mass in place, "tank rush" as Steve puts it, they will be meeting UA troops that have been re-armed and reinforced who have already demonstrated they can kill Russian mass at range with impunity along its entire corridor of existence.
There are other Russian options, but they all would take about a decade to set up.  

No doubt about it, something is happening to Russian mass.  We do not know if it is the Russians getting in their own way or as a result of UA actions, maybe a combination of both.  The standard belief is that the Battle Group, Battalion Task Force or BTG are supposed to the smallest tactically self-sufficient blocks of conventional mass.  They are baked into a Bde-like structure and are designed to be able to run and burn for days, pointed at operational objectives. 
Combat Teams/Coy TGs are supposed to operate within that Battalion construct.  It is very rare to see one operate independently (e.g. Bridge Demolition Guard).  Since very early on in this war, we saw reports of Russians seemingly unable to fight a BTG as designed...why?  It is too easy to say "well the Russians suck", so I immediately distrust it.  The Russians have not set a high water mark of military campaigning, that much is true but how much is their fault and how much was inflicted on them by the UA?  More importantly has the UA approach essentially broken the Russian one?
I see a lot of debate on "the future of the tank?" with a lot of people in armored uniforms and tank books saying "no way" [aside: including JasonC, which does not surprise me at all as we rarely have agreed on anything].  I also see people leaning way too far, too fast with the "tank is dead...long live the infantry!!"  This is not the important question.  The important question is "what just happened to conventional warfare?"  Not just the tank, but all of it?  The entire system of mass, which looks a lot like the ones we use, just failed gloriously when by all metrics it should not have.
This odd de-aggregation of mass at the front end of Russian advances is just another symptom.  We saw Russian tanks going unsupported almost everywhere, while infantry also appear to be unsupported.  Unless the UA invented a "forget combined arms" magic ray gun, one has to wonder why this is happening.  I am not sure if it is friction caused by a combination of UAVs and long range smart ATGMs that may have insane Pk rates.  Or is it a result of information superiority leading to Russians having to adopt ad hoc tactical approaches?  Or is it a result of attrition of Russian frontline troops?
But one thing is certain, Russian mass is not working.  What happens next in the south appears to be building to a final showdown between traditional conventional mass and whatever the UA has come up with.  I suspect the Russians will double down on mass but try to build it up in a WW1 "one last push" thing.  It is going to meet the UA hybrid approach, which also includes UA conventional at certain points and spaces.  The Russian mass will be blunted, slowed and stalled complete with logistics/LOC strikes, but what we don't know is who will break first.  

Reading into and debunking russian propaganda is just as full of sense as doing the same for the ravings of a mad hobo. Not worth it.

Left and Right is just downright archaic. Originated during the reign of Louis the 16th of France. Just make it clear what we support democracy or autocracy.

Don’t want to give the teacher an apple but well said Steve. And it’s not to detract from the evils that Russia is doing in/to Ukraine. 

All of the political/social terms - Communist, Fascist, Capitalist, Libertarian, Socialist etc. are merely footnotes when your leader is a ruthless sociopath. Ruthless sociopaths govern basically the same regardless of political designation.

Thats nuts, the tank is facing towards them and doesn't see them? Theyre so close!
By "nuts" I mean CMBS Russian tanks would have killed my guys lllooooOOOOONNNng before they got that close, and absolutely from the front. I torture myself into knots trying to maneuver to hit MBTs. And wtf is with all the unsupported tanks in this war? I learned really hard and really fast after the very first game of CMBS - dont leave tanks alone.

I'd lay strong odds we'll soon see (in 5 years) overwatch drones slaved to the tank targeting & acquisition systems, that will be sent up and constantly be tracking with and above the tank, providing heavily increased range of awareness both to the tank and nearby units. Probably two drones per tank - one up and watching, one down and recharging. 

We live in an era of Strasserism, 'social fascism' claims and what used to be called the 'red-brown alliance'. In the end, it's all about opposition to liberal democracies which is why the fight for Ukraine is of outsized importance. Reactionary populism and revanchism must be stopped there or we'll be fighting at worse odds to stop it everywhere else.

I think it's pretty clear that the massacres of civilians in Ukraine are a tipping point in how people around the world are viewing things.  Last night my wife said two things I could never imagine her saying:
"he needs to die.  someone needs to kill him" (putin)
"why can't we send the american army to kill them?" (meaning kill the russian army
Strange times indeed.

Sounds like there's lots of Russian science & tech folks fleeing right now.  I think they'd make any country better. 
I've been on two business trips to Israel.  It was interesting how the Russian Jewish immigrants had changed Israel into a tech leader since so many of them were very highly educated engineers and scientists.  Most of the engineers I worked with had Russian names.  What a great bunch of folks!  And much better food than I think they would've had in Russia.  "Dan, have you tried the schnitzel, it's very good today!" 
So yes, best of Russia's most educated citizens -- please leave and come and enrich the the free world instead of being forced to make computer viruses by Putin.  Your children and grandchildren will thank you.

Wes Clark
 
 

Putin, conscripts, Russian law, and declaring war.
Those are all just figments of the West's imagination. Putin could just wave his hands and say, "The Ukraine is a region of Russia undergoing rebellion. We gave them some loose abilities to govern themselves and now the Hitlerites have taken over. This is an internal security matter. There is no need to declare war, nor does the West have any say on what happens. Or I'll nuke everyone."
That would allow conscripts to flood the zone. (Weaponry would be an issue.)
Moving the shattered BTGs from Kyiv up to the other border locations seems like a good idea (from the Russian perspective). It allows fresh troops to move to the Donbas, allows the remnants time to consolidate, and keeps some security around the periphery.

The Rubble recovered quickly, but that is said to to be artificial and temporary. Still quite disappointing after all the euphoria about the sanctions. Personally I prefer sitting in the cold to paying for Putins war.  More has to happen. Burn the Russian economy down to the ground. 

Kind of puts the knee-capping incident into a different perspective.
This was almost inevitable sad to say.  A lot of this has the whole “civilian reprisals” feel to it.  However I would not rule out some old fashion “ethnic cleansing”.  Not much to add on a military assessment as this sort of thing is a blight on the profession.  I would only add that this either demonstrates an extreme loss of control, or Russian high command has gone to a pretty dark, and stupid place.  Stuff like this results in assassinations and reprisal attacks for a century.  Further any hope of normalization with the west has left the building as any easing of sanctions will now be tied to warcrime investigation and prosecution.
This sort of thing also plays into any anti-war support in Russia itself as these tales of atrocities come home.  
This right here is why war is best left to gaming.

"Special Operation and Peace".  Professional quality humor 👍

if you use "woke and PC" you are just another brainwashed tool.  This is just a shiny object meant to ignite culture wars.  We have much bigger problems.  Like in the USA we are considered now a failing democracy.  And it's not because of some "woke & PC" horses-t.  It's because of a very different brand of propaganda.
So how about we all call a truce on this foolishness and get back to Ukraine?  Do we not (nearly) all here have a shared interest in seeing the new Hitler defeated?  What I care about is that the west (and the world) stays united and that Ukraine can emerge 'victorious', although that's an odd word for having a big part of one's country laid to ruin.

This comment...

This is what the PC and Woke Brigade of the West cannot grasp about Russia

...has absolutely nothing to do with Ukrainians being angry about Russian war crimes!

I KNOW exactly what it represents, and it has no place in this thread and that's why I'm calling it for what it is.

That's whether you, or anyone else likes it or not... it is trolling! 

Now I joined this thread after the first week of the war to read others views about the conflict, not to read about this sort of nonsense. Quite frankly, there's nothing that I am going to learn from this sort of socio-political diatribe, but there is a lot that I can learn about the military conflict. But these particular comments have no place here and are irrelevant to the topic. 

Can't we just leave the angry comments by Ukrainians about the war crimes for what they are? Personally I can perfectly understand their fury and I don't feel the urge to condemn their justified anger and sometimes unjustified hate. Calling them trolls is rather silly.

There is probably also a simple answer for giving heavier equipment to UKR:
- They can fight Russia and win
That's been said plenty up to now, it was all talk until they had actually defeated Russia's strongest attack. 
This is undeniable proof that UKR has what it takes in many different areas, where then can be given more stuff and they'll use it well. For all the WE STAND WITH UKRAINE blabber, everyone was waiting to see if they could actually pull it off. Which they have, to their eternal credit.
For our US friends, its a little like Saratoga - once the US had shown it could defeat a major British army, France was all in.
 

That! + 1

Some historical comparison.  After Pearl Harbour, Admiral William Halsey said 'Before We're Through With 'em, the Japanese Language Will be Spoken Only in Hell"  A sentiment shared I'm sure by many Americans at the time.
Passions can run high during war time.
 

For Pete's sake, it is not RACISM!! Not everything is RACISM!! It's simple BIGOTRY for crying out loud!!
If you want to be all woke and politically correct about this horse****, at least use the right friggin words.
And personally, I don't agree with either of your positions. The people of Russia, I think the gray masses in Russia should suffer under sanctions for allowing a criminal regime to exist. They should be despised and ostracized from civilization until they change, but they should not be condemned to torture and death. The RA should be brutally killed to the last man for their heinous inhumane barbarous conduct to the Ukrainian civilians. They are friggin savages and should be treated like such. There is no difference between them and ISIS at this point. Their torture, rape and murder can't be condoned and every member of every unit is responsible for the conduct of that unit and especially it's officers and NCO's, but that does not alleviate private Ivan for following orders, doing it on his own or standing aside and allowing it to happen. You play, you pay.
But I'm an idealist and believe in right and wrong, good and evil. A hate filled heart is not a bad thing when it is aimed at evil. If this was happening on my soil, to my people, to my family, Kraze would have to push me out of the way to take his turn on the kill, maim, mutilate merry go round on those bastards.
Man, if I get any  more fired up I might tell you how I really feel.  

You are categorically wrong there.  That is exactly what has happened.  Russia has not ordered a full mobilization and already has an issue with conscripts refusing to serve in Ukraine.  There are very sharp political reasons for that.  Will Putin go that far?  Possibly.  The risks are extreme and likely require he actually declare it a war by Russian statute.  Assuming he does that, will it make a difference?  Mobilizing even more untrained cannon fodder with military hardware that may not even work?  The DPR/LNR guys and the Ossetians have already complained about being used as cannon fodder.   Again we are talking about a 300 mile front line.  I am not sure how many square kilometers that translates to.  The numbers just don't work.

Let's stay on topic guys. If you want to discuss racism do it with personal messages not forum posts please.