DavidFields

Why don't YOU stop your nonsense, instead of trying to show how enlighted you are and accuse people of being racist, who just love their country and have a hard time to control their anger because it's being bombed to rubble. People like you make me sick to the stomach.

@Haiduk, @kraze Agreed. What is being done to your country and your people is vile and evil. Your anger and hatred towards your enemies is justified. All the " be nice to each other" crap can wait until the war is over. Be safe and keep your heads down guys.
 
 

Could we maybe knock off these racist accusations? Russian is not a race. Ukranian is not a race. It's the same as saying American or British or French is a race. That's just nonsense and all it's doing is inflaming passions.
Plus it's tiresome to wade through while trying to catch up.
Dave

I'm with Lethaface on polls in Russia.  They know they are being watched and only a fool would tell the truth to some unknown pollster.

I would think that most of the Kyiv direction troops would struggle to deploy to the eastern axis in less than a week, though depending on the chaos of the Belorussian rail network and in Russian depots where the reorganization would happen, it could be much longer. Some units like the VDV and elite BTGs may be pressed back into service soon, but I just dont see conscript and 'second tier' forces being reoriented quickly. Thats even if they dont draw any replacements. Even if simple tasks like reorganizing TOE and filling gaps in leadership go smoothly, they probably wont, what do you do about morale? Youre taking a unit thats already lost the fight for one meat grinder and then want to throw them into another? I just dont see it. There is too much work to be done and with units who were obviously not in the best shape going in. 

I should have been clearer, I meant maximum support in the current proxy war, indirect involvement, environment. To put it another way the people running the war for Ukraine, and the NATO members supplying the Ukrainian army need to get on the same page as far as means and ends. If the goal is to create a stalemate on the current line of confrontation in the Donbas, then be sure the Ukrainians know that so they can do it coherently and with the lowest possible casualties. If the goal is to kill so many Russian troops so quickly that Russia abandons everything but Crimea we need to give the Ukrainians support to do that. That should specifically include higher level western AA/anti missile systems, even if that means some NATO troops have to do the false flag thing to operate them. NATO personnel from Eastern Europe could be used, it isn't like you can tell a Pole from a Ukrainian just by looking. Just don't let the BBC interview them, heck don't admit the Ukrainians have the systems, let the downed Russian aircraft speak for themselves. You won't even have to shoot down that many, they will just stop flying where it is dangerous.
On the larger issue of Ukrainian strikes in Russia you have to distinguish between logical extensions of the Ukrainian campaign against Russian military logistics in the area of operations, and "communication of our actual negotiating position". The fuel depot strike was probably more to do with communication, although Russian logistics have so idiotic it may have a real impact there as well. As communication goes it is a would I would call it a level one attack, the noise made is large, but the body counts is pretty low, and it is still local to the current theater of operations. so now we see how the Russians respond, And then we will see if the Ukrainians can do something larger if they don't like the Russian response. A really large scale covert attack on the Russian railway system, or something purely symbolic much deeper into Russia come to mind.

I admit to being kind of amused at these "Russia will do this and declare a ceasefire..."
You can't declare a unilateral ceasefire unless you are really in a dominant military position.  You can ask for one, but the other side has a say.  Ukraine will have a set of conditions for the ceasefire which they have already started establishing.  The key one being Russia recognizing the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  I don't think they will insist on Crimea beyond an internationally managed referendum there.  It will however mean the end of DPR/LNR.  I don't see Putin agreeing to that.  So the war will go on until Russia is simply unable to maintain their forces in the field either because of a military collapse or a political "transition" back in Moscow and a unilateral withdrawal.
The cracks are appearing for Putin.  Incidents of soldiers refusing to serve in Ukraine .  Too much of the army is being committed to this with potential risk of instability elsewhere.  Too many of the various power blocs now have a reason to consider a Russia without Putin.  The cost of the war which so far he has managed to hide will become apparent.  The butchers bill will come due.  Putin is in a situation where everyday things get a little worse and he is not in a position of controlling the narrative.

Sorry but this makes very little sense from a couple perspectives.  I am not sure why so many people need to somehow find a dark genius in Putin's actions and strategy.  I guess some have invested so much in making him the boogey-man that their own interests are at stake here while others sound like they are on the Russian payroll.
So internally, starting a war and then losing it has never been a smart path to reinforcing internal control.  The worse one loses the more internal (not less) internal tension it creates.  This reinforces the idea that a quick war may have solved some of those internal issues.  Why try and suppress free press when they are crowing a quick victory parade in Kyiv?  So the idea that this was all a clever ploy to get a better domestic grip does not make a lot of sense unless you can get a quick win, which did not happen.  Every day Russia bleeds in Ukraine makes things worse, not better.
Resource grab.  Well first off, if this was the aim they missed it:

https://www.flandersinvestmentandtrade.com/export/sites/trade/files/market_studies/Ukrainian Energy Market_0.pdf
Russia already had the Crimea.  It might have grabbed that thin sliver in the south and took a few nibbles from that big eastern field but the majority of that field is still in Ukrainian hands.  This might have been a goal on the initial invasion but the debacle we have seen unfold for a month now does not support an oil and gas grab strategy.
Further, resource-wise this makes little sense.  Russia is sitting on 4.8% (ish - number swings around depending where you look), while Ukraine has a whopping .06%.  Gas is even crazier with Russia at 25% and Ukraine at .6% (https://www.worldometers.info/gas/#:~:text=There are 6%2C923 trillion cubic,levels and excluding unproven reserves).
Why on earth would Putin risk the massive sanctions, which further exacerbate his domestic troubles, in order to try and grab a fraction of a ridiculously small share of oil and gas?  There are significant Black Sea reserves (https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/02/28/as-russia-closes-in-on-crimeas-energy-resources-what-is-next-for-ukraine/?sh=5ef9b6d829cd) but why wage a freakin land war all over the place if all you want to do is exploit offshore gas in a region where you already have vast naval superiority?
Finally, how exactly has Putin achieved any of these strategic aims thus far?  He has to try and keep a lid on over 10k dead (and times-3 wounded) to avoid domestic pressures, increasing economic failure due to sanctions - leading to domestic pressure, and zero to show for it in "black gold", that you can only sell to China - who is going to gut you price-wise - thanks to said sanctions.  
There is no master plan here, or at least not anymore.  Being an ex-KGB autocrat, Putin demonstrate acumen at subversion strategies; however, on this one he tried to "go loud" and is likely suffering from Dunning-Kruger shock right now as he slowly realizes that he is nowhere near as smart as his cronies have been telling him. 
 

For the sake of discussion... He makes it sound plausible enough and who knows maybe he is right but my questions are how would russia achieve these goals now that a very large chunk of their forces have been destroyed?  If the article is correct, russia committed an awful lot to something they didn't really want.  Also, re the energy resources, the invasion has pushed most of russia's energy clients away to either source them from elsewhere or accelerate towards green energy.  Russia can only have energy dominance if it has countries worth dominating to sell energy to.

I am biased against anything serial dumb-ss Bret Stephens says, but this is rich.  Putin could've just done a feint in the non-natural gas regions and then made his big push on the principal strategic sector.  Instead Putin gets his army smashed and still doesn't have the resources that Stephens thinks the wily genius is after.  Stephens I guess is taking a break from explaining to us plebians how the science for climate change isn't settled.  I wish NYTimes would fire him, he's a disgrace.
Putin didn't need to totally and completely F-- up this war in order to clamp down on dissidents.  What ridiculous crap.
 

Regarding Syrians.  i'd be surprised if Russia understood within days of the invasion they needed more troops.  I expect it is more likely that was Wagner or Russian units out of Syria.  Russia's performance so far doesn't impress me enough to think they would react that quickly.  I expect Russia was in utter shock at how badly the war was going that first week, but not fully comprehending.
Regarding the above.  I read that earlier today.  I frankly don't understand his argument unless he has some deluded perception that Russia is going to retain the whole Black Sea coast which thought is completely undermined by the preceding paragraphs.  I think the reality is Putin really is the loser we think he is.  He way overplayed his hand for whatever reason.

I'm not quite sure where either of you are going with this ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_mortality_in_the_Soviet_Union_under_Joseph_Stalin
The Russians ability to slaughter their own people as well as their neighbors is  pretty much top of the charts as far as I am concerned  .
Maybe we should just drop this line of reasoning  about  Germans  versus Russian Death Counts and leave Kraze to his pretty valid opinions on the actions of the Russians generally towards Ukraine .
 

Yes, I hear you. But I have to give some credit to people that have been bullied by Russia for almost a century. I was never in their place...But again the only thing I havent read here yet is that russians eat their toothpaste or something, we are heading in that untermenschen, russophobic rhetoric again it seems. We can do better...
The funny thing is out of everyone, germans were the most murderous "species" in the recent history but being a part of our world we never treat them like we would treat Russia. They are respected, are the head of EU etc...We must come to realize fascism is an illness that comes from external factors primarily and not rooted in the genes of people.  

If I was the UKR I wouldn't let them.  A withdrawal while in contact. ... yeah that Army isn't capable.  Putin can make all the statements he wants, The Ukrainians don't need to give them the space.  I think Steve said many pages ago something about that moment in CM where your opponent is on the ropes.  Yeah the game is over but we all know how much we want to wipe that force.  Besides all those POWs would be leverage to get back the civilians Russia is kidnapping.

fixed that.  "main stream media is way over used.  I don't even know what it means anymore.  Seems all media is parsing the hell out of that.   
I did like this.
Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, however, on Monday told CNN's John Berman that he was pleased to hear Biden's ad lib arrive when it did.
"I think Ukraine and Ukrainians were waiting for a long time for such a statement," Yushchenko said. "I think this statement is absolutely correct as to the challenges of our times."

LOL a lot of roads with a lot of abandoned Russian tanks.  it all gets so confusing.  I could hear someone giving directions.  Go down the road an make a left at the T80.  If you see a T72 B3 you missed the left and you should turn around.  Unless it's the one with the commander shield in which case you might as well continue on as you've gone too far.

Depending on the phrasing here this is a funny compromise. Neutrality secured by other nations that can stand up to Russia? So....... The United States?

On the "putin senile" thing, I definitely fall on the side of a narcissistic sociopath megalomaniac who has learned over time that his wishes and his will become reality.  Hench he does 'insane' thing but it's all quite rational to him. 
And so will someone please kill this monster???

Three key things: 
1. Biden is the first American President who came into office with zero illusions about Putin/Russia.
2. The people Biden appointed watched 20 years of mistakes, magical thinking and missed chances. 
3. More broadly across the foreign policy establishment there was bipartisan support to take on the task. 
Putin was entirely unprepared for what the meant in terms of applied full spectrum American power.

I agree with all of this. The delta in the situation is that the US admin had done tons and tons of 'what if the Ukrainians hold out' diplomatic and logistical legwork. Once the Russians invaded, the EU governments had already been prepped for the worst case scenario and had already agreed to many of the actions they later took. In fact, DC did such a good job that by the second week EU countries were going beyond what had been asked for. The big question now is holding them to course. You can see the 'war criminal', 'must lose power' etc comments in that light. The White House is locking them into position (as in, it's hard to drop sanctions on someone your government has agreed is a war criminal). 

Is there much fighting in the 2013 Clancy book?  I just want the combat
I remember back in the day starting Patriot Games or some such and actually throwing it in the trash (it was cheap used paperback).  Opening scene is basically teenage-level wet dream fantasy of Clancy where he (via alter ego Ryan) saves Lady Di from IRA terrorist attack with his good ol' football tackling skills, which are much better than those silly submachine guns the baddies had.  The princess then gushes over the manly oh so manly american He-Man.  That was the end of my Clancy reads except for occasional revisit of the great Red Storm Rising.

a good summary of recent fighting & ground gained. 
ALERT>  LIBERAL website, so if you don't like that just don't stray from this military summary page else you might be displeased w what you see
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/26/2088342/-Ukraine-update-So-much-talk-about-logistics-let-s-talk-strategy-today
 

John, 
 
having read your last post, I’m sincerely hoping for a vacation coming your way soon.
 
the crisis actor “application” regarding the Boston bombing (for those of you who understand Reddit, read the section it was posted to) is the final straw for me. 
 
You truly are acting like a buffoon. 

John
There are plenty of good reasons for a dictator who wants to conquer a place not to scorch the earth of that place. Central Kyiv is being hit, and the only reason the devastation is not worse is the ABM defense in its airspace, and the efforts of the UA to keep the many RA tubes out of range, and busy with military targets.
However, that's all irrelevant to the point of my comment on the article you posted. Go back and read it again, and see how its underlying attitude matches to the OSINT sources that you've access to. Hint: it is at odds with them. Look at the language used, and see the propaganda piece for what it is. It's not very subtle.

Just flipped on the news and it’s reported the Ukrainians now have more tanks and IFVs then the Russians do in Ukraine as they have captured and are re-using abandoned Russian tanks.