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Eddy

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  1. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from fry30 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  2. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  3. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Mindestens in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  4. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  5. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from Astrophel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  6. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  7. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  8. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More on this here => 
     
    Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
    1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
    2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
    3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
    Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
    This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 
  9. Like
    Eddy reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Seems that issue with Russian oil tankers off India went further south.
    Russian oil tankers bound for India are turning around amid scuffle over payments to Moscow (yahoo.com)
    Russian oil tankers are turning away from India amid disagreements over payment.
    The tankers had been hovering near the shores of India and Sri Lanka for about a month.
    India is paying for Russian oil in UAE currency, but one major supplier has been unable to accept payment.
    Russian oil ships drifting near India's shores have begun to turn away amid unresolved payment disputes between the two countries.
    According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, five oil tankers carrying Sokol oil, which have been idling close to India and Sri Lanka for about a month, are now headed eastward toward the Malacca Straight.
    Another Russian ship — the NS Century — is still drifting near the shores of Sri Lanka. The tanker has been idling for over a month as Indian officials mull over whether to let the ship unload its cargo, Bloomberg previously reported.
    The turnaround comes as Indian refiners are paying for oil with Russia in dirhams, the currency of the United Arab Emirates, people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week. But a unit of Rosneft, one of Russia's state-run oil giants, hasn't been able to open a bank account in the UAE, meaning it's unable to accept payment, sources added.
    As of October, India had at least seven oil shipments from Russia that hadn't been paid, Reuters originally reported.
    India is also under pressure to remain on good terms with the US, which sanctioned the NS Century late in 2023 for trading oil with Russia above the $60 per barrel price cap. Those restrictions are part of the West's attempt to ramp up pressure on Russia's energy revenue that it is using to fund its war against Ukraine.
    India has become one of Russia's largest oil customers since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Russia now exports nearly all of its oil to China and India, Russia's deputy prime minister said last week – though shipments to India have recently stalled on payment issues. Russian oil exports in India cratered in December, with Indian refiners receiving no Sokol crude that month at all, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
  10. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Baneman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.
  11. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  12. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from cyrano01 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  13. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  14. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from fry30 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  15. Like
    Eddy reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam was a contested city, so the bombing pre May 14th was not indiscriminate bombing, I think (though I'm really no expert on the topic). The most devastating bombing run happened after the Dutch has started negotiating the trend of surrendering.
  16. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  17. Like
    Eddy reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I updated the post. Two missiles.
  18. Like
    Eddy reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hiroshima and Nagasaki - two nukes and Japan is capitulated. No bloody fight for country occupation, no sea battles, dozen thousands of Allied soldiers lives resqued. Not always peace time morale useful at the war. Especially if this war is not a conflict between cicvilized countries, but total war "we are or they are" between civilization and barbarism. You will never win barbarians if you show "humanism". They recognize this like your weakness. Barabarians respect and understand only brutal force 
  19. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  20. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.
  21. Like
    Eddy reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I doubt Putin would bother to invade states Russia has already suborned so thoroughly already. If NATO is on it's back foot, if say we have Trump in the WH who Putin believes might help bollix a response then the Baltic States are the place to try it. None of the three has a hinterland to retreat to, there are some significant Russian speaking minorities and most importantly it's sellable in Russia as part of the regathering of the empire. The idea would be a coup de main and then a threat to go nuclear if NATO tries a counteroffensive. 
    I don't think it's incredibly likely but the mere prospect of such a move would certainly be the cudgel Moscow would wield to try and cow Talinn, Riga, etc. 
  22. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.
  23. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I do actually. Thanks for posting this. Good to actually get some numbers.
    Very roughly because the chart is actually quite hard to read and the dates don't precisely match but:
    1. 11/09/22 -> 29/12/2022 => 719 missiles fired, 452 intercepted, interception percentage = ~62%
    2. 06/09/23 -> 29/12/2023 => 301 missiles fired, 218 intercepted, interception percentage = ~72%
    So a clear reduction in missiles fired (42% of last years number)and an increase in the interception percentage over very nearly the same period of time. 
    NB: Chart does not include Shaheds
  24. Like
    Eddy got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.
  25. Upvote
    Eddy got a reaction from keas66 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.
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