Eddy

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet  But it is 100% worth it!

This is a good thread 
I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

This is a good thread 
I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

Really a good read. He describes the short and long term effects that the mobilizations has on the Russian people and culture. TL;DR: it's really bad.

This is a very sober and to the point analysis, thanks for linking it.

And a new pair of underpants hopefully!

This is a good thread 
I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

Have a listen to the podcast that the @The_MonkeyKing linked to above if you've got the time (about 45 mins long). It's Michael Kofman and Rob Lee talking about that very subject. Here's the link again Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization | Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado (simplecast.com)
TLDR: They are of the opinion it won't change the dynamics.

More I think about it this might very well be a 100% all in from Russia. The 300k figure is to confuse the wests response. 300k is the lowest figure that can give smoke screen for total mobilization.
They want to apply maximum pressure so the casualties and time spend would be minimized. Also not that much time for wests counter response. Also the internal political response might be though similar for lets say 30% or 100% mobilization. 100% mobilization would also be shorter in their logic, quicker victory.
Mobilization is expensive and cannot be sustained indefinably. As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/betting-it-all-on-black-putins-partial-mobilization-and-escalation-strategy-in-ukraine
Good point from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee.
Do not believe the 300k number for mobilization for a second. This is not even written on anything (not that would make it any better), this is just what the guy who lies always said in a speech.
What interest Russia would have in telling even a ballpark accurate numbers here? The opposite, huge risk.
Think about it; What would Russia say if it was conducting absolute maximum mobilization?
I think way too many people take the number as some sort of guide. Mistake.

You can cut that right out. This isn't a US political thread. 

That would be very difficult to do. But if they did it'd probably look something like this, in this region:
 

3 to 5 weeks.
Ukraine war: UK programme to train 'citizen soldiers' is expanding | UK News | Sky News
Although I did read somewhere there was a much longer staff training programme going on but typically I can't find the link now!

There is new and unexpected development with Sahih al-Bukhari saga. Previous I discussed two outcomes:
Reversal of the decision means Putin while somewhat weakened is still in charge No changes to decisions means power struggle is happening, and Putin is severely weakened However, today Kadyrov announced over Telegram he needs - indefinite and long vacation from his post Head of Chechnya. Text of post:
For those who is unaware of RU power games - Kadyrov would never leave his post voluntarily. He is a notorious war criminal with many enemies inside and outside of RU. There is no a happy quiet life for him after retirement. And he is the only protection Chechens have against another attempt of genocide by RU army.
Let's look closely at the video of announcement:
Full transcript is below (Yes, he talks like this in RU and "don" is parasitic word in Chechen language)
 
If we pull the most useful phrases out of this mess and correct them, we get the following:
So:
Kadyrov got a message from somebody who is more experienced in seems to be political games than Kadyrov Kadyrov was told he might be kicked out unless he himself leaves He had to publicly announce it to prove he got the message Important point - Kadyrov seems to be sad, disappointed but not scared or under distress. That gives us additional food for thought
The other guy: himself is not a threat to Kadyrov and kadyrov can trust his word Kadyrov might not be just threatened but most likely was additionally bought (promised supposedly higher position but out of power)  Working theories:
Putin got pissed off with Kadyrov Somebody very close to Putin is making a soft coup Theory 1 Pro 
Most simple explanation Kadyrov trusts Putin Theory 1 Against 
I do not see anything Kadyrov did that could piss of Putin Does not fit Putin most likely course of action - Putin would make meeting with Kadyrov with cameras and directly offer Kadyrov what would look like better position. No fuss and everybody happy and quiet.  Putin needs Kadyrov now more than ever Adding the book to extremist material list does not fit the theory that Putin is in charge (why piss on all Sunni Muslims if you have issue with one) Theory 2 Pro
The book story fits here nicely Overall way it is done (secret meeting) and Kadyrov announcement of TG fits as well kadyrov most likely trusts Putin inner circle as well Putin strange public behavior (rubber butt) Overall hardening of RU position (for example decision to disconnect gas)  It is about time Theory 2 Against
It is a complicated explanation It is simply very difficalt to pull off unless Putin is, for example, mentally unhealthy My opinion - Theory 2
Let's think about the possibility that Putin is mentally unhealthy (for any number of reasons). For example, he is just talking head for TV now. That's why Kadyrov is not making a big fuss. He just did not see it (Putin mental problems and following soft coup) coming. That's why he says he (Kadyrov) is still so unexperienced - he was outmaneuvered and offered the way out.
Interestingly we saw reports Shoigu was sidelined (so he is out of hierarchy). And Shoigu was one of the heirs (according to Girkin). Now we see Kadyrov is on his way out of the game. Too many coincidences to believe in simple explanations.

Yes. Comment is coming.

About a week ago, there was video of Excalibur rounds hitting soft skin vehicles and a dugout.  Those are clearly airburst rounds... the signature explosion is unmistakable.
Edit:  I was an artillery officer for 17 years and a forward observer for most of that time.  Airburst rounds go off at a optimal 7 meters for variable time (VT) fuzes.  Depending with distance and angle of view, that is low enough that an airburst can be mistaken for a normal point detonation fuze burst.  So chances are good that airburst fuzes are being more commonly used...but we are not clearly seeing it in videos...because the 7 metre height and seeing if from a drone video (mainly overhead angle) from hundreds of metres distance makes the airburst look like a ground graze burst.

Ok...STOP.
  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:
- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.
- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.
- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than that we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.
- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 
You wanna talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Here's a link to the latest IAEA statement on the nuclear power plant situation. Concern. Good that all the safeguards data is being received, but that's not really the major concern. 
For review, when they discuss safeguards, they aren't talking about the safety of the plant. What they are talking about is monitoring facilities to ensure that nuclear material (for example, spent fuel) is not diverted for "other" uses. All nuclear plants have them. Saying that, new fuel is a poor material for say, a dirty bomb, and impossible for a nuclear weapon. Spent fuel is so highly radioactive that while it might make material for a dirty bomb, handling it to do so would be incredibly difficult and dangerous, requiring a lot of special equipment and shielding. And while there is Pu in spent fuel, the processes to extract it are only owned by a few countries. 
The bigger danger by far is significant damage to the plant, which could cause a radiation leak. Breaching both the containment and the reactor vessel is not too probable. More likely disabling safety systems that control spent fuel pool cooling (a la Fukushima), leading to the breakdown of the fuel and radiation release.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-91-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Dave

So I totally get the impulse to unpack this attack, especially from a forum of - let's just say - "detail orientated" wargamers.  Kudos to those that continue to Zapruder this thing, and I am sure in time the details of how the UA pulled this off will come out (my bet is missile strike, but I would not rule out one helluva SOF black bag job - could be both in reality; complex attack).
But for all the lurkers out there I would recommend we all keep an eye on the follow-on impacts of this strike on a strategic and political level.  We bounced around this a few pages back but here are some thoughts:
- All war is communication and that is a complex concept of 'the message', 'the means to send the message', and 'the method of transmission'.  Every piece of those components in themselves create information that is interpreted in multiple dimensions.  For example Ukraine said things thru this attack that create certainty and uncertainty - in case the second one is the most powerful:
Ukraine stated, with certainty, that they can hit a high value target with extreme precision at 225km (at least) behind Russian lines.  I say 'extreme precision' because it appears they did more damage with the secondaries than the initial strikes, and that takes a very high level of precision in time and space.  This was not lobbing a missile at a target, they hit exactly where they needed to in order to create a very high profile "boom".  That is communicating 'capability' that I am pretty sure the Russians were sure they understood, right up until yesterday afternoon - based on the scrambling narratives in the Russian info sphere. Ukraine has clearly communicated intent.  If they wanted to hurt Russian airpower, they would have cratered the runway and then FASCAM'd the thing...but this was not about airpower.  They were signaling that they are coming for Crimea, and the Russians were not safe...anywhere.  This will likely create a lot of uncertainty in Russian thinking, as the pretty much figured they had Ukraine pinned down in the Donbas in a grinding war.  We talked about it before but this is strategic manoeuvre thru strike.  The kind of thing the US does by hitting Afghanistan from the other side of the world back on 2001 (https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2016/December 2016/1216hours.pdf).  This was a high profile attack that both demonstrated and signaled intent and resolve in a very visible manner - that is certainty creating uncertainty in their enemy. I don't care how constipated the Russian political machine is, and it is already trying to spin this in crazy directions to blunt the message - they get that much.  No way to dodge it, this is very bad news for the Russians.  They have been relying on the narrative of "hopeless cause": Russian has 'escalation dominance', it can create a never-ending 'stalemate', it can and will fight forever...there is no way Ukraine can win: so stop spending your money in a pre-recession...look we even have Steven Segal!  This is clearly playing on the western psyche and our recent scars from places like Afghanistan. Ukraine just demonstrated that they can still hit a strategic target, with breathtaking precision, at the time and place of their choosing.  That directly attacks the Russian narrative.   Militarily, this type of attack creates enormous uncertainty.  The fact we have people on vacation on a beach watching this happen, and then blow it up all over social media, is a clear indication that Russia considered this area outside the warzone.  You can ignore or sidestep "industrial accidents" and the rash of weird fires we saw back in Mar-Feb, you can ignore HIMARs that hit your logistical system within 70-100kms.  You cannot ignore a strategic strike, that just happened in front of the entire world, at over twice that range.  The Russian military now needs to not only figure out how to secure itself at ranges it thought safe, it has to figure out how to defend Russian certainty, which just got seriously mauled. So what?  Well the first reaction will be "it was a lucky one off", and "this is war, these things happen".  However, information is funny with humans, we cannot un-think it.  As a minimum, Russian has to re-think the battlespace, significantly.  That is a lot of assumptions that just cracked in military planning - the fact that they did not see it coming in time to interdict is the biggest one.  Russians may try to ignore it, but I am betting western ISR is picking up a lot of scrambling going on in the Russian rear areas right now.  Again, this is more friction being imposed via uncertainty.  And that uncertainty will spread like a virus.  All those beach goers will scramble back home with it.  The Russian reaction will be key to determining just how badly this strike hurt them. 
Now the war is not over.  This was not positively decisive, at least not yet.  The UA will have to follow up with more of these, humans are also able to ignore reality - which is paradoxical I know.  More of these strikes will build up pressure until something gives.  But for the west, this is a clear demonstration that our proxy is not only still in this thing, it demonstrates they are getting better at it.  Better they are emulating warfare we recognize - high precision deep strikes on clear military targets with almost zero collateral civilian casualties.  Nice, clean and very western - worth investing more into.
I have heard at some pretty high levels the idea that "Russia has shifted this war into one that favors them"...well strikes like these send the message that Ukraine is shifting it back.  May have been a 'one-off' or a lucky day; however, it is going to cause the Russians a lot of hot and bother to figure that all out...and in a war, that is good communication.

Yep. Seen that before:
Every panzer in Normandy was a Tiger Every artillery piece in North West Europe was an 88 Every Luftwaffe pilot shot down in the Battle of Britain was shot down by a Spitfire, never a Hurri Once somethings got a reputation, it sticks I suppose.

Yep. Seen that before:
Every panzer in Normandy was a Tiger Every artillery piece in North West Europe was an 88 Every Luftwaffe pilot shot down in the Battle of Britain was shot down by a Spitfire, never a Hurri Once somethings got a reputation, it sticks I suppose.

Not sure if this has been linked already but I've found these videos to be a great help in understanding what is happening day to day. Each day is summarised in about 5 mins. Nice and concise.
 

Not sure if this has been linked already but I've found these videos to be a great help in understanding what is happening day to day. Each day is summarised in about 5 mins. Nice and concise.
 

According to the RUSI report ( Ukraine at War: Paving the Road From Survival to Victory | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org) ) it doesn't much. HIMARS relies on the the AD defences being spotted by drone, but because of EW the drones can't be used, unless they go on pre-programmed flights and the data is downloaded after the drone has RTB, by which time the AD could well have moved.
They suggest the priority military aid should be anti-EW weapons to unlock drones, which then unlocks HIMARS for attacking AD resources along with CB and other stuff.
 
If you've got the time I'd give the report a read. It's really illuminating.