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Sarjen

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  1. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ghost-of-kyiv-who-shot-down-more-than-40-russian-aircraft-dies-in-battle-q3sq0hztx
    May this hero rest in peace.
  2. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  3. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was an officer, but if I got paid for every time I said "What do you think, Sergeant Sam?" I'd be rich. (SSG and then later SFC Samarripa). He was my first team sgt as a new 2LT and then again years later as a CPT. He taught me a lot and I taught him that he could always be straight with me - give me the best advice he had, even when I don't ask for it. 
    IMO as an officer it's just extremely foolish to not be this way. We worked well together and I'll always owe him. 
    Dave
  4. Like
    Sarjen reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Since I am also curious about the state of play of the slo-mo "Potemkin" offensive against Slovyansk, I went back over the last 90 pages of this thread (only 15 April!) and pulled out some of the key assessments made by our esteemed experts. All hail and praise unto them!
    1. @The_Capt scans the terrain for the Izyum axis (page 532)
    2. @Combatintman maps out the potential axes for a 'pincer' attack (page 548)
    3.  @Haiduk confirms the attack (page 553)

    4. @Kinophile shows us vividly how exposed are the northern approaches to Slovyansk (page 556)
    5. @Combatintman revises the axes in light of the actual Russian advances (p557)

    6. @Combatintman estimates RA force strength around Izyum at 16 BTGs not the 22 advertised
    7. @The_Capt floats the interesting hypothesis that this is a 'look busy but don't bleed too much' offensive.
    8. @Haiduk updates the actions around Izyum as of 23 Apr (p593)


    9. @Combatintman evaluates the Engagement Area around Dovenkhe (Izyum-Slovyansk road)
     

    10.  @The_Capt assesses the state of play: "using BTGs to try and find a hole in the UA defence instead of a recon screen" 
     
    11. @Haiduk's latest update, noting RA gains in contested Zarichne village and a flanking operation at Yampi (which has netted them some UA prisoners)(p.610)
    12.  This....
     
     
  5. Like
    Sarjen got a reaction from SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Try web.Archive.org
    https://web.archive.org/web/20220424084107/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html
     
  6. Like
    Sarjen got a reaction from SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Short update on the German contribution of arms and equipment. 
     
     
  7. Upvote
    Sarjen got a reaction from Shadrach in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Try web.Archive.org
    https://web.archive.org/web/20220424084107/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html
     
  8. Like
    Sarjen got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Try web.Archive.org
    https://web.archive.org/web/20220424084107/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html
     
  9. Like
    Sarjen reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah that´s the same CCP asshats who let elderly starve to death in Shanghai after they sealed them in their homes. Disgusting! However enough of that OT stuff from me.
    Lockdown-induced food shortage, starvation infuriate millions in Shanghai | Business Standard News (business-standard.com)
    Shanghai's covid lockdown: food shortages, drones, starving animals - Washington Post
  10. Like
    Sarjen reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    not really.  Russian threats just don't carry much weight anymore.  As @dan/californianoted, the threat is pretty hollow.  If Lavrov wants a no fly zone all he has to do is try a strike on NATO territory. Short of that it is just sour grapes from the losing side.  Maybe should have thought of consequences prior to Feb 24th.
  11. Like
    Sarjen reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    He is playing with the fears that exist in the western european states. The russians run out of options, everyone can see that. The clock is ticking against them. TikTok...

  12. Like
    Sarjen reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sounds like the german system at Brig level which doesnt form static BTGs but cross-attaches Coys from Pz and PzGren to Btls depentent on the task at hand resulting in Btl (-), Btl(+/-) or Btl(+) structures.  Usually a Brigade has 4 Sabre Btls. A PzBrig has 3 PzBtl and 1 PzGrenBtl, a PzGrenBrig has 3 PzGrenBtl and 1 PzBtl.
    Dependent on the task at hand usually 1 Btl is held in Brig.reserve and the 3 remaining Btls are organized according to the task given by Brig and terrain (Delay, Defense, Attack, Recce in force).
    So from a Btl. with 4 PzGren Coy, a PzCoy, PzAAPlt, PzPiPlt and PzJgPlt as a PzGrenBtl(+) to a Btl. with only 3 PzCoy as a PzBtl(-) kept in Brigreserve everything can happen and change from one day to the other.
  13. Like
    Sarjen got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Short update on the German contribution of arms and equipment. 
     
     
  14. Upvote
    Sarjen got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Short update on the German contribution of arms and equipment. 
     
     
  15. Upvote
    Sarjen got a reaction from Shadrach in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Short update on the German contribution of arms and equipment. 
     
     
  16. Like
    Sarjen reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  17. Like
    Sarjen reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    kind of funny.  With a significant amount of the armaments supply being former Russian equipment from former members of the Warsaw pact... Russia isn't really fighting NATO, they are fighting the Warsaw pact.    History is weird. 😎
  18. Like
    Sarjen reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well one could argue that the organization was marginalized long before this whole dance.  The US invasion of Iraq in 03 was definitely a nail in its coffin.  The global order that the UN was supposed to both represent and embody has been stressed and cracking for decades, this has likely just finished the job.
    This is not good news.  As constipated and dysfunctional as the UN was it is better than the alternative, which is back to the old anarchy of nations with multipolar power arrangements largely ungovernable besides the rule of the gun.  That is where we were in 1914 except now we have nukes.  So yes Ukraine is bad but what could follow may be a lot worse if we don’t put this whole thing back in a box.
    Putin’s sins in Ukraine are historic but if we don’t get our sh#t together collectively he is going to go down as a footnote, assuming there is anyone left to write it down. And if that wasn’t hilarious enough we have climate impacts coming straight at us.
     
  19. Like
    Sarjen reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am an expert on military operations and this war makes very little sense in both purpose and execution.
  20. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is not regular AFU unit, this is "Hospitallers" volunteer medical unit, operating since July 2014 for medical support of VUC Right Sector fighters. The founder of battalion is 18-years old (in 2014) Yana Zinevych, which was heavy injured in 2015 in car accident. Tasks of this unit - first aid on battlefield, evacuation from combat zone, surgical. Their tac-med level, level of equipment and motivation are very high. During the war on Donbas this unit evacuated from battlefield 2750 wounded soldiers of VUC and army units. In 2017 "Hospitallers" had 60 of personnel and aout 100 of reserve.
  21. Like
    Sarjen reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, that is my sense as well.  The Russian operational trend appears consistently to try and do too much with too little.  Given the "typical" BTG construct:

    (Seen these pictures everywhere)
    According to the old frontage rules, this outfit could likely cover a 3 km frontage in the old 2 up, one back formation.  The MLRS and I assume UAV support allows it to strike really deeply, it has some flank security and AD so is somewhat self contained (except recon but I will get to that).
    So with 16 BTGs, assuming they hold 1/3 in reserve means about 11 BTG up front, which translates to about 33, say 35 kms frontage. A rough eyeball of the Russian start line up there:

    Is roughly twice that frontage...at the start line.  That frontage will expand in the advance, not even taking into account attrition.  So either the Russians are using a very different force-to-frontage metric and giving that BTG a 7-10km front which is a lot to ask of 800-1000 pers unless you have got some next-gen ISR and precision lethality.
    Which leads me to the next big question?  Where is the Russian recon?  I have been looking around and in all this discussion I have not seen anything on how or where the Russian recon screens are laid down.  There are no dedicated recon units in the BTG (unless I am missing them), I have to assume that the recon is held at formation.  Given the environment that is not a small ask, to screen a 70+km frontage out to 10-20 kms.  This is made worse as the UA method has put eyes with teeth everywhere so you would need detailed/close recon at least out to 4-5km in front of lead BTG elements (the range of the Javelin being 4+km) to even stand a chance.
    For historical reference:

    So that is a 10-25km frontage for an old MRD, with a recon screen out 50km in front.  That MRD has 9 MRBs and 3 TBs with an entire TR in reserve (so 3 more TBs), for a total of 15 Bn-sized units...for 10-25km.  And there would be another MRD behind it.  To do what the Russians are proposing, in old Soviet terms would require 3-5 full up MRDs, an entire CAA at full strength.
    I get frontages have expanded with modern ISR and weaponry (or maybe they haven't on the advance) but this is asking a lot of fresh troops, let alone already mauled ones.  Am I missing something?
  22. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some frontline news:
    Mariupol. After a time of next ultimatum has gone Russians hammered Azovstal with FAB-3000 from Tu-22M3 and heavy artillery (maybe 2S4 240 mm siege mortars too). Azov command made a statement the plant territory almost all ruined, they try to take out survived people, dead and wounded from ruins. Russians at this moment don't advance forward. About 1000 civilaians hide in plant undergrounds   
    Zaporizhzhia axix: Russians throughout the day desparately attacked our troops in Huliaypole area to establish better conditions to the entering in the battle rest of forces, but hadn't sucess.
    Velyka Novosilka axis (JTO south): Russians decided outflank our troops west from this settlement and to breakthrough between Huliaypole and Velyka Novosilka. They advanced from Liubymivka to the line of ponds and the dam near Temyrivka village
    JTO: Russians could take Maryinka under own control, but our forces after regrouping counter-atatcked and retaken the settlement. In Rubizhne all attempts of enemy to move further where repelled. Now Russians and separs control about half of the city. Calshes around Kreminna.
    Kherson oblast: Russians launched attack on the north of Kherson oblast to take back positions, lost in previuous weeks, but hadn't success
    Kharkiv oblast: multiple attempts of small armored battlegroups to infiltrate through our positions and find the hole in our defense - no success.     
  23. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Der Zeitgeist in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think you spelled "Manuela Schwesig" wrong. 😄
  24. Like
    Sarjen reacted to Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is just too funny not to post...😀

  25. Like
    Sarjen reacted to SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I officially condemn Russian actions in Ukraine for delaying the CMCW Module! 😀
    After finishing the 1979 US Campaign that taught me to value Starships especially as support for infantry, I thought I could jump right into defending Germany with a bunch of roaring Leopards but turned out to not be the case, cause those boneheads in the Kremlin decided to start a real war... so I took a break and recently bought CMBS and got my ass handed in the first missions... That new Stuff is so much more deadly and scary, and the battles run at a faster pace compared to CMCW.
    So Mr. Putin, I demand an immediate end to that war. You will have to fully compensate Ukraine and me for suffering your atrocities! You have enough internal **** to do. That are my max claims and I will definitely not step down. 😂
    PS Thanks again @Haiduk, @kraze, @Battlefront.com, @TheCaptain and all you other guys for providing a deeper dive into all the things concerning this war!

    PPS @kraze I still dont think all russians are fundamentally evil but lets get back to topic before i get a vacation. Pah, I can still read the thread so i dont fear that! ^^
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