riptides

Perhaps the Philippines perspective is a bit remote/.  For Ukrainians this is not an academic exercise, it is an existential fight against having a Russian torture chamber and "filtration" office being set up in your neighbourhood.  Russia has already inflicted "debilitating losses": We are beyond this point.
As far as propping up the economy goes, Ukraine demonstrates day to day a massive capability.  The agricultural power is global, they have massive reserves of oil and gas and rare earths - why else would Putin be so obsessive?  Their electronics/software competence is formidable and they are already making formidable long range missiles and short range intelligent drones able to take out a tank more effectively than an Apache Helicopter.  Ukraine is a highly intelligent nation with a work ethic and skills.
Ukraine needs helping hands.  It does not need "propping up"

This explains the lack of parachutes in the video captures of the Black Sea HQ attack.
Kamikaze Squirrels. Also explains the incredible flight patterns of some of those drone videos avoiding the cope nets.

BSF HQ from other point of view.
For citizens of Sevastopol, who known with own boast and snobbery that they are live in the place of Russian glory and legendary BSF, who from the cradle know the city anthem "Legendary Sevastopol impregnable for foes", for them this HQ building is almost sacral center. So, the strike on it is almost the same if White House in Washington would be hit

 

Disagree. It could be the hammer that puts the final nails in the coffin.
IMHO, the Russian, North Korean deals, made this system a priority. Not the counter-offensive. This is to be used as a denial of future ammunition supplies.

I don't think it's really a pay issue - contractors can pay whatever they want and throw around equity and if the gov't needs the service and that's the price, it's not that hard to write the contract.  Especially for creative development where you're going to hire a roomful (or even a small building full) of mechatronics people to build transformers.  They each might cost a lot, but even a decent sized small company isn't going to be that expensive.  Way back at the start of my career I watched someone who was only a couple years ahead of me leave a semi-gov't job (FFRDC) to take a job at a small company developing UAVs at ~3x the salary, plus they'd pay to get a helicopter license.
The harder part about attracting engineers to that is the working environment - going into the classified world tends to be a one way trip, or at least a deep rabbit hole that people take a long time to pop out of, and then they can't even show off their cool stuff.  And the whole working on the classified side of things makes it more complicated to find and pull in outside stuff that's supposed to be air gapped, but that might be useful to incorporate.
The big cost comes in paying for the production run and all the costs wrapped around that.  

They were looking for Kuban Cossacks, but there was a mix-up and have recruited Cuban Cossacks instead.

These are not the airframes you seek.
 
Comes to mind...

Seems like a place to drop part of my overtime bonus. I'll add it to my trusted list.
It's a promise I gave myself in Feb 22. Whatever I earn outside of my regular pay eaxh month will go to Ukraine. There are many good causes all over the world which deserve attention, but I have chosen this one because it has special significance to me. And I'll continue each month this goes on, doesn't matter how many years it takes. I am in the lucky position that this is financially possible and I know it's not for many others.
The wife is already joking "And how is your true love, Ukraine, today". 

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

They count bodies before accidents? 😀

They count bodies before accidents? 😀

They count bodies before accidents? 😀

F. What air defense doing?

F. What air defense doing?

F. What air defense doing?

Prigozhin will be declared dead and after a few months strange rumours will start circulating about a certain Polkovnik Kurtz in Congo...
EDIT: RU Telegram rumours are that the entire high command of Wagner was aboard the plane.
The fast confirmation makes it all a bit suspicious, a plane crash is a good way to fake someone's disappearance.

The Ukrainian response to all of this "advice" should consist of one sentence. "The U.S. Air Force is welcome to show up any time." 

I would bet a whole lot of money that a lobbying group that is backdoor funded by russia is backing this guy, and a lot of other folks like him.  No one outside RU can come up with this level of b--s--t without being paid to do it.

Do Muhammed Ali proud. Roam with a Drone and strike like a Javelin.

Yeah, half those gears don't work in that pic/image.
Imagine that.
 

Operation Deadstick... I've updated my Scenario I made years ago, now with the Horsa glider and updated Canal bridge, 

Major Howard Lands Meters away from the Benouville bridge, he leaves the Horsa glider, to begin the operation, his orders are simple, take the bridge and hold until relieved...

Within minutes they are engaging with the Anti Tank Gun and German Bridge security units...

After dealing with the At Tank and Bunker, Howard and his men storm over the bridge, objective to engage the German troops in trenches on the other side...

A German squad, storms out of the barracks and get to the trenches on the opposite side of the river...

More of Major Howards teams join the assault on the bridge...

The Wehrmacht troops defend well initially but are only conscripts and very nervous and don't take much for them to make a run for it...

The Paras soon reach The Café Gondrée, which becomes the first building to be liberated on D-Day, the café owners were in the cellar and are the first French civilians to be liberated, Major Howards learns that the Ranville Bridge had also been successfully assaulted...

But Lieutenant Brotheridge, commander of No.25 Platoon, "D" Company, 2nd Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire Light Infantry, was the first allied casualty of D-Day...

The paras start to create a defence perimeter around the bridge, waiting for the German response... and clearing any enemy troops from the surrounding houses...

Some surrender...

...some try to resist...

but resistance at this stage is futile...

The bridge is secure... for now...

Reinforcements start to trickle in from units of the 6th Airborne division...

Later in the morning three German Panzer IV's make the decision to attack the bridge (historically the first Pzr IV was destroyed, at the junction by a very brave para with a Piat close range, this made the other two panzers retreat), in my scenario one of the tanks make it close to the bridge...

...but I managed to despatch this threat when it entered a courtyard near the bridge, all crew mown down by the elite paras...

Now Major Howard remembers his orders, 'hold until relieved', things quit down and the paras do their best to prepare for the counter attacks that were sure to come soon.
 
Note:
Special thanks to Lucky strike for his Hedgerow Hell Mod.
To Phil for sending me his amazing model of the Horsa Glider.
To JM Stuff for destroyed Vehicle Mod.
 
And anyone one else who's Mod i've used. Cheers

Adding a face to this tragic story.
This being a wargaming forum we mostly focus on the AFU personnel and their heroic deeds. But this is a good moment to remember the heroic work that Ukrainian emergency services personnel have also being doing during the course of this war.

I think China is dumbfounded as the rest of the world with Putin.
But, they do think the war he has waged is a good thing to distract the US from its other intentions. More economic dominance and a general shift in the order of Taiwan and Asia Pacific in general. Unfortunately the economy of China has hit a major road bump and well the Military is seemly to be undercut by recent events like the Japan exposures of being hacked.
Putin will never negotiate a settlement. Someone else maybe, but no way Putin is in power at that point.
 
 

I think China is dumbfounded as the rest of the world with Putin.
But, they do think the war he has waged is a good thing to distract the US from its other intentions. More economic dominance and a general shift in the order of Taiwan and Asia Pacific in general. Unfortunately the economy of China has hit a major road bump and well the Military is seemly to be undercut by recent events like the Japan exposures of being hacked.
Putin will never negotiate a settlement. Someone else maybe, but no way Putin is in power at that point.