Vanir Ausf B

Update on the F-16 timetable from Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba:
 
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/viyna-nato-vilnyuskyy-samit/32499810.html

Tidbits from a podcast, the tweet author is kind enough to pull stuff for reading. Takeaways, Russia, with all it's bungling, is still producing artillery shells, still replacing troops, and we are full swing in attrition phase.
Imo, we need the U.S and Europe to get fully invested in artillery and ammunition and long range missiles, cause I think the case is definitely nearing the point where Ukraine can argue without the ability to hit more of mainland Russia, they won't get anywhere, and are stopped in their tracks, and Russia is still hitting civilians without regard, and I think the push arguments regarding the general public of Russia, in not wanting to sway them towards supporting the war by striking mainland Russia, are waning month by month with little signs of discontent.
 

One more examples of Bradleys toughness - this one got direct hit from the tank gun, but kept driving capabilities
The guy Sergio from 47th brigade: "This is my company, there weren't dismounts inside, the crew is intact, the vehicle now under repairing "
 

Russian artillery hits Ukrainian M-55S. Due to accuracy, probably Krasnopol.
The hit may have been directly on the mantle, as the vehicle seems to be largely unscathed from the hit. Hopefully crew survived. But there is an internal fire at the end of the video, so the vehicle is lost.
 

At this point I think NATO armies have more to learn from UKR veterans than they can teach them. 
I don't think there are officers in NATO ranks that have fought an actual peer to peer war. 
 

During NATO training of Ukrainian troops in Germany by German Army:

I should have said "coup d'etat". My bad. 
I would also say that I don't think there's a 'new power' or that one is in control. The folks who, by action or inaction, allowed Putin to be humiliated and see his aura demolished aren't completely unified over anything other than seeing Putin's power diluted. Many certainly don't want Prigozhin anywhere near power, they disagree over whether to stay in the Ukraine war, how to fight it if they do, they have their own economic interests, etc. Think of it as an awakening to the fact that if they choose as a group to not allow it, they don't necessarily have to abide by Putin's arbitration of their disputes or deposition of their positions. It's not some clique pulling the strings and skillfully managing the state from behind a curtain. It's a post struggle, temporary equilibrium with Putin trying (not so successfully) to reassert himself while the central contradictions that created that struggle remain essentially unfixed. Momentously and prosaically...a world of possibilities has been revealed. The next round of bad bounces, lucky breaks, trains to Finland Station will now ensue. 

And that happens when you cut a small snippet of a quote and use it out of context to make your point.
The (relevant part of) the full quote:
I don't see any threshold applied there. He just states that currently the usefulness of a limited number of F-16s is probably not that high for the ongoing counteroffensive because of Russian air and AA capabilities. That perfectly fits our understanding of the current situation. Ukraine already has air capabilities, they just can't use them all that much at the moment because we basically have denied air space (for both sides btw). A handful of F-16 will not immediately and fundamentally change that equation, right? As he goes on that may change over time.
If that's your definition of a moron...
Now I have to defend US generals because you guys are too lazy to look up original sources? Really?

EU member states have been welcome to increase their own ammunition production rates at any time. If any of them have failed to do so because they were waiting for a subsidy from EU coffers to pay for it then that’s on them.

Interesting thread on Ukrainian experience training with US Rangers in Germany. 
Really sounds like Drone Warfare hasn't landed within the US army culture yet.  Not surprisingly,  as the guy notes -  US hasn't fought a peer level war in decades,  so the pressure isnt there. 
@Haiduk what is Nettle? 

That would mean anyone on the planet fighting against an oppressor is fighting a war on our behalf. From a philosophy pov I could see some merit in that idea, but in practical terms it becomes rather vague or result in a sort of perpetuous world war.

I think we are touching upon several points here, maybe translation is a thing too (English being not our first language, although afaik we both have a rather good understanding of it).
A) Without Russia invading Ukraine in 2022,  there would be no full spectrum hot war between Ukraine and Russia. The destruction of Russia's armed forces in and of itself wasn't and shouldn't have been a goal without that event happening. 
In hindsight of course we can connect more dots and say 'we should have X', but that's only valid for the 'future' we are living today. If Russia hadn't invaded, there would be no war. There would also be no war to be fought on behalf of the West, because there would be no reason for it.
So, this war happened because Russia invaded Ukraine and Ukraine decided to fight back against it (unlike Crimea 2014). Not because of any other reason. The primary goal of the war is to kick Russia out of Ukraine, so Ukraine can follow their own path as they see fit. 
Ukraine isn't trying to kick out Russia from their country because they have romantic feelings about other countries. No, they are trying to do it on their own behalf: they don't want Russia in their country.
B ) Given that Russia has acted the way it did, it is now clear for all to see that the security situation in Europe isn't what we thought it was a decade ago. Russia has shown (repeatedly) it is not to be trusted and will even escalate to large scale full spectrum warfare against major countries, at the cost of many innocent lives, to get what it wants. This is turn has made obvious that Europe's largely neglected security against an 'Eastern' threat is sub par and needs to be addressed, especially given the new/current security outlook. Even if Russia won't be able to go on another adventure for the next 5-10 years whatever, there's no guarantees it won't try something again later down the line so we better prepare ourselves.
C) I personally doubt Russia would have invaded Poland and or the Baltics if they would have successfully annexed Ukraine after a short war. That would mean a war against NATO, which is a whole different ballgame (never mind ballpark 😉 ). They'd probably like those territories inside the greater Russian imperium, especially Putain, they'd probably do it if they knew they'd get away with it. But that's definitely not a certainty. The Polish army already was a sizable force, no pushover. 
If those countries believe NATO wouldn't come to their help, well than why are they even in NATO. 
D) A weakened Russia is helpful to our security. Yes it (most likely) is, especially now that the West has decided to choose the Ukrainian's side Russia has become a defacto enemy like during the less friendly phases of the Cold War. That doesn't mean Ukraine is fighting it on our behalf though. There is a shared 'interest', which is why it is wise for us to support Ukraine achieving victory. Therefor I'm in favor of a 'full send' support, I don't like half measures because in the end they are more costly and time consuming. But there's always geopolitics and various interests involved so things move at the pace they move. 
E) Worrying has never helped anyone. I don't know if people here don't worry, I don't like to worry though. But that doesn't mean we/I think we shouldn't be properly preparing so we can prevent poor performance in the future. Maybe we have more trust in NATO given our history. It probably also helps we're not directly on the border. 

Hence why I think it is a fallacy to state that Ukraine is fighting the war on our behalf. They are fighting for their country, they are fighting a just war of self defense. Their victory is absolutely in our interest (for various reasons) and so we should support them win it. 
Now if Russia had already defacto declared war on NATO and it was a given they would attack NATO after they are done with Ukraine; then one could say Ukraine would be fighting a war on our behalf. But in that case we'd probably be fighting it alongside them. 

I'm not the biggest fan of Ben Wallace (although he's one of the better of the Tory party), but on this I think the quote being thrown everywhere rather misrepresents what he said - it's rather more in line with what people on this thread have said that Ukraine can't take western support for granted in the sense that they need to be politically savvy about how public statements can sound to the western public. I.e. don't say stuff and present an attitude that is going to give leverage to the political factions that are rather more pro-Russian. Quoting a BBC article:
 
Ben Wallace's comments in full
More now on the latest comments from UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
In his briefing with reporters, he said that Ukraine had to remember it was asking countries to give up their own stocks of weapons.
“There is a slight word of caution which is, whether we like it or not, people want to see gratitude,” he said. “My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes, look, you are persuading countries to give up their own stocks.
"And yes, the war is a noble war and yes, we see it as you doing a war not just for yourselves but also our freedoms. But sometimes you have got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America [US Congress].
"You have got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that it is worth it, it’s worthwhile and they are getting something for it. That’s just the reality of it.”
He said there would sometimes be "grumbles" from US lawmakers, but he insisted that Ukraine would join Nato.
“The win here for Ukraine is the sort of cultural acceptance that Ukraine belongs in Nato.
"You have heard the [UK] prime minister say Ukraine belongs in Nato and the word 'belongs' implies it's fate, implies it’s going to happen.”

There are several reasons, to quote some of the top of the head:
First, Russian performance against Ukraine is an outlier, caused by their attempting a coup Prigozhin style but finding their soldiers in a middle of the biggest conventional war after WW2 in columns of march. This practically killed their professional army in the first month of the war and had to create a new one on the fly. It was a result of hugely wrong assumptions, which are not going to be repeated in a war against a NATO member They would come properly mobilised and their peformance would be better. How much better, I do not know exactly.
Second, out of those 31 countries, the only one which matters is the US. I am not so sure about the ablility of the rest of the European NATO members to effectively help protect the Eastern flank (prior to the weapons shopping spree on which Poland embarked; but the final outcome of this is uncertain). Even if they are fully willing. So the defence of Europe hangs on the result of US electorate not electing a radical isolationist because of their internal political issues, on which we have no influence, like after WW I. It would be much more comfortable if Russia was decisively defeated and deprived of the means to try and make a comeback as a world threatening empire. 
Third, and this is probably the most likely risk, is that after a hypothetical Ukrainian defeat, Russia gets wind in its sails, returns to its plans to be a World-threatening empire and new Cold War starts with the current NATO east flank being the frontier states. Even if Russia is ultimately deterred from starting a new shooting war this would not a good place to be.

I keep reading about how Ukraine is fighting this war on the West behalf. No, they are fighting this war to stop Russia from invading/annexing their country. They are fighting it for their own behalf (fortunately).
Yes we also have interests in it, but please stop the framing. Ukrainians are doing the dying, they have decided to do it, we didn't need to convince m or pay m to do it.
 

A pessimistic post by Mashovets about the Zaporozhe offensive. The first one, AFAIK, which worries me.
 

More Storm Shadows / SCALP EG from France
 
and material worth 600mio EUR from Germany including:
2 Patriot SAM launchers + surface-to-air missiles
25 Leopard 1A5 tanks
40 Marder 1A3 IFVs
20.000 artillery shells
Leopard tank shells
5.000 smoke shells
5 BREM Bergepanzer 2
Recon drones and anti-drone systems
 
 

I think the point is that cluster munitions are not much good at clearing trenches. However their supply may allow Ukraine to avoid firing what may be scarce standard artillery rounds at targets caught in the open (which cluster munitions are better suited for).
 As regards potential damage to the western alliance, I think the fact that many friendly nations have signed the treaty means they have committed not to encourage, aid or be any part of cluster munition use. That’s why we see allies of Ukraine currently struggling to properly condemn this move and avoid being part of the supply chain while maintaining support for Ukraine generally. For what it’s worth I think this is also why the Ukrainian Defence Ministry are releasing statements acknowledging the concerns of most/many of their allies and articulating what they’re going to do about it. 

This sentiment has been repeated a number of times recently - I really don’t understand what incisive point is supposedly being made.
I mean, is it that the Russians are the bad guys? Well, sure? They’ve been the bad guys for a while now. And in other breaking developments; water remains wet.
One expects the bad guys to do the bad things. That is, after all, why they are considered to be the bad guys, and in that respect it’s barely noteworthy. One does not expect the good guys to do the bad things, so when they do it is noteworthy in a way that it isn’t for the Russians. Think “dog bites man” vs. “man bites dog.”
Would it help if I edited my sig strap line to include a proforma “… and of course the Russians continue to do bad things!”? That way every post would include a peep from someone, and maybe then this particular strawman can be retired.

From another tweet with the same clip
 
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1677774741145370625

As always, primary sort stuff from Tatarigami. Analysis of Russian document regarding their AFU tactics. Russians clearly doctrinally try to catch up with developments, curious how this war will influence their military theories taught at academies in long run.
Also folks, if you don't wanna sign a blood pact with Elon, remember of this useful and simple tool: https://nitter.net/
 

Destroyed Russian column near Chervonopopivka, Luhansk oblast, northern flank of Kreminna direction.

According to some our servicemen claims Kreminna direction now is more hot than Zaporizhzhia, because Russians are desperately attacking and situation is very dynamic. Especially in forestry area on southern flank, where positions can change owner several times along days or even hours.  
Russians activated attacks on Kreminna, Svatove and Kupiansk directions, also they  significantly increased shellings of border areas of Sumy oblast and attemts of recon-diversion groups infiltrating. All this doing to attract reserves from southern front.  

About cluster munitions - Soviet Union had wide nomenclature of such ammo for all artillery assets, but among videos I didn't see wide usage of this ammuntion type neither from Russian side, nor from Ukrainian. DPCIM munition widely uses only by MLRS now maybe only by Russians, because probably all of UKR cluster ammunition for MLRS was destroyed in 2016-2017 in explosions on main arsenals and remains were quickly exhausted during first months of war)
Maybe DPCIM was more technologically hard and expensive for manufacturing, so number of artillery cluster munition was realtively small in comparison with traditional HE and HEFRAG ammo.
 

This happened on northern outskirt of Zherebyanky village - next toward west from Pyatykhatky. Acording to Russian TG the village was taken by UKR troops yesterday, but no more information about this from both sides. 
According to one of soldiers, this was really mined trench. In result of explosions 2 KIA, 10 WIA. If this was really position of BARS-32 named after Sudoplatov as it says logo on the video (this is local Zaporizhzhia oblast collaborators battalion, established in Melitopol), then they have good chances not to be captured...