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c3k

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  1. Upvote
    c3k reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For those interested, some trenchant comments on the 'end of the tank?' copy-pasted above from @JasonC over at BGG.
     
  2. Upvote
    c3k reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Completely agree. Nationalsozialismus, Faschismus, Sozialismus, Kommunismus, etc. are only sub-forms of left-wing totalitarism. The answer to the question "who owns the means of production - pivate or state-control" can be a helpfull guide for classification. 
  3. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A much more useful measure of politics uses a different spectrum. (BTW, "right wing fascist" was a label used by the Communists in the '20s to differentiate two different forms of socialism).
    The spectrum to use is linear. On the far right is total individual liberty. Call it anarchism.
    On the far left is total government control. 
    Using that, one can see that fascism, socialism, communism are much more closely related than democracies.
    There are variants on this, but freedom vs. control is a much more useful measure. It shows that "right wing fascists" are really just a form of left-wing totalitarianism. (And, boy, do they hate being reminded of that.)
     
    Back to the fight: Izyum is, once again, the focus of a huge offensive. This is key to Russia's move to try to encircle the Ukrainian salient just south of there.
    And what a great opportunity this presents. When the Russians attack, the Ukrainians can slaughter them.
     
    Post-war: Clearing out the Russians from the Luhansk/Donetsk/Crimea would be important. Would it be possible to tell the pro-Putinists living there that they need to move to Russia? Similar population shifts have occurred before.
  4. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is the Jomini of the West profile on twitter :
    https://twitter.com/jominiw
    Personally, I use "nitter" instead of "twitter", which makes it possible not to need an account, as a forum member previously suggested (thanks to him)
    https://nitter.net/JominiW
  5. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Freyberg in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sigh.
    I did not change my position.
    Putin is a dictator in all but name.
    Putin controls Russia. There are some institutions left that have a semblance of independence, but if push came to shove, Putin would co-opt them, directly or indirectly.
    Putin has the power (REAL power) to send conscripts into Ukraine. The law in Russia is a joke. If it affects Putin, then it becomes whatever he wants. If it does not affect him, then he doesn't care.
    Figments of the West's imagination: that the rule of law matters in Russia.
    Putin is calling it a "special operation". Is it that, or is it the invasion of one sovereign entity by another? 
    To directly answer your question 1 is trivial. Putin can claim the "special operation" is an internal matter. That Ukraine is a breakaway republic subject to Russian laws and control. LOLz...  (This is the PRC view of Taiwan, so there is precedent.) if Putin does that, then ipso facto, the borders of Ukraine actually become the borders of Russia IN HIS VIEW. Thereby allowing him to use new conscripts "within" the borders of Russia, to defend against a guerilla war funded and supplied by the Hitlerite West. 
    2. Putin is throwing everything he can at Donbas because he does not want to, nor can he afford to, lose face. When the Syrians, Chechens, and anything else he has FAILS to achieve that face-saving, then he will not hesitate to tell Russia that the Hitlerite West needs to be stopped in the breakaway republic of Ukriane (which he will sell to Russia that Ukraine is begging for Russia's help). Then he'll shove more bodies into the breach.
     
    Why is he not doing this already? Because up until the withdrawal from Kyiv, he's been living in fantasy-land. Now, perhaps, he sees how bad it is going. 
     
    I'm really not sure why you think I've changed my position about Putin being a dictator and having the ability to send Russian conscripts into battle in Ukraine.  Will there be difficulties with doing so? Of course. But he has the capability.
     
    What am I missing that has you so put out by my comment?
  6. Upvote
    c3k reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The sole fact that russians never stopped considering us their territory, not for a single day.
    And the sole fact that a mighty #1 woohoo russian army got owned so hard by a bunch of "lenin-invented" "separatists" - that it now needs low morale untrained conscripts just thrown into the meat grinder without any modern weapons (of which they quickly run out) - will show how weak putin is.
    Failing to defeat a "local rebellion" in "russian" land with best army ever as is IS putin's loss of face.
  7. Upvote
    c3k reacted to CHEqTRO in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    😳
     
  8. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Freyberg in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My point is that the only thing keeping Putin from deploying conscripted Russians into the attack on Ukraine is that there is a Russian law prohibiting such a thing.
    Do you, or does anyone, think that Putin would let some words on paper keep him from his goal? That he'd rather be embarrassed, stymied, undermined, perhaps overthrown, than ignore a law? A law passed by a system which he controls?
    And, whatever his excuses to use conscripts, if the West or anyone else (as if there is any effective internal resistance left in Russia) cries "foul", he'll resort to his usual threats.
    So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.
    Much like the West looked aside as he invaded in 2014 (tourists, little green men, Tigres from ebay, etc.) he'll toss out a facile excuse (Ukraine is a rogue province (hey, it's working for China vis a vis Taiwan)) and expect the West to look at their feet, mumble excuses, and not do anything.
    The current modus operandi of the West supplying Ukraine with light weapons has not yet changed. Will it? I don't know. But I do know that Putin is a tyrant and that he can do what he wishes and just has to cloak it in the thinnest garb for it to be accepted by Russia.
  9. Like
    c3k got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My point is that the only thing keeping Putin from deploying conscripted Russians into the attack on Ukraine is that there is a Russian law prohibiting such a thing.
    Do you, or does anyone, think that Putin would let some words on paper keep him from his goal? That he'd rather be embarrassed, stymied, undermined, perhaps overthrown, than ignore a law? A law passed by a system which he controls?
    And, whatever his excuses to use conscripts, if the West or anyone else (as if there is any effective internal resistance left in Russia) cries "foul", he'll resort to his usual threats.
    So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.
    Much like the West looked aside as he invaded in 2014 (tourists, little green men, Tigres from ebay, etc.) he'll toss out a facile excuse (Ukraine is a rogue province (hey, it's working for China vis a vis Taiwan)) and expect the West to look at their feet, mumble excuses, and not do anything.
    The current modus operandi of the West supplying Ukraine with light weapons has not yet changed. Will it? I don't know. But I do know that Putin is a tyrant and that he can do what he wishes and just has to cloak it in the thinnest garb for it to be accepted by Russia.
  10. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My point is that the only thing keeping Putin from deploying conscripted Russians into the attack on Ukraine is that there is a Russian law prohibiting such a thing.
    Do you, or does anyone, think that Putin would let some words on paper keep him from his goal? That he'd rather be embarrassed, stymied, undermined, perhaps overthrown, than ignore a law? A law passed by a system which he controls?
    And, whatever his excuses to use conscripts, if the West or anyone else (as if there is any effective internal resistance left in Russia) cries "foul", he'll resort to his usual threats.
    So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.
    Much like the West looked aside as he invaded in 2014 (tourists, little green men, Tigres from ebay, etc.) he'll toss out a facile excuse (Ukraine is a rogue province (hey, it's working for China vis a vis Taiwan)) and expect the West to look at their feet, mumble excuses, and not do anything.
    The current modus operandi of the West supplying Ukraine with light weapons has not yet changed. Will it? I don't know. But I do know that Putin is a tyrant and that he can do what he wishes and just has to cloak it in the thinnest garb for it to be accepted by Russia.
  11. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from DavidFields in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Putin, conscripts, Russian law, and declaring war.
    Those are all just figments of the West's imagination. Putin could just wave his hands and say, "The Ukraine is a region of Russia undergoing rebellion. We gave them some loose abilities to govern themselves and now the Hitlerites have taken over. This is an internal security matter. There is no need to declare war, nor does the West have any say on what happens. Or I'll nuke everyone."
    That would allow conscripts to flood the zone. (Weaponry would be an issue.)
    Moving the shattered BTGs from Kyiv up to the other border locations seems like a good idea (from the Russian perspective). It allows fresh troops to move to the Donbas, allows the remnants time to consolidate, and keeps some security around the periphery.
  12. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from Armorgunner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ballpark numbers...
    Military age males are about 10% of the total population according to that. That graphic says total is ~146 million, so MAMs number about 15 million.
    If Russia has suffered 15,000 KIA and another 45,000 WIA, that's a mere 60k from that manpower barrel. 
    Given that a society cannot draft 100% of the MAM into combat, unless the end is nigh (see Third Reich, about February of 1945), then let's say about 1/3 can be used. 5 million available, 60k casualties.
    Russia can dig a lot deeper.
    Can Putin survive if Russia digs deeper? Aye, now there's the question...
    Edited to add: and, what the hell are they going to equip them with??? I'll bet the new conscripts will have thought the days of, "grab the weapon of the man ahead of you when he falls" was behind them.
  13. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ballpark numbers...
    Military age males are about 10% of the total population according to that. That graphic says total is ~146 million, so MAMs number about 15 million.
    If Russia has suffered 15,000 KIA and another 45,000 WIA, that's a mere 60k from that manpower barrel. 
    Given that a society cannot draft 100% of the MAM into combat, unless the end is nigh (see Third Reich, about February of 1945), then let's say about 1/3 can be used. 5 million available, 60k casualties.
    Russia can dig a lot deeper.
    Can Putin survive if Russia digs deeper? Aye, now there's the question...
    Edited to add: and, what the hell are they going to equip them with??? I'll bet the new conscripts will have thought the days of, "grab the weapon of the man ahead of you when he falls" was behind them.
  14. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ballpark numbers...
    Military age males are about 10% of the total population according to that. That graphic says total is ~146 million, so MAMs number about 15 million.
    If Russia has suffered 15,000 KIA and another 45,000 WIA, that's a mere 60k from that manpower barrel. 
    Given that a society cannot draft 100% of the MAM into combat, unless the end is nigh (see Third Reich, about February of 1945), then let's say about 1/3 can be used. 5 million available, 60k casualties.
    Russia can dig a lot deeper.
    Can Putin survive if Russia digs deeper? Aye, now there's the question...
    Edited to add: and, what the hell are they going to equip them with??? I'll bet the new conscripts will have thought the days of, "grab the weapon of the man ahead of you when he falls" was behind them.
  15. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'd not try downloading such stuff unless in an isolated VM/separate machine. 
  16. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Viking-style riverine raid of UKR forces on Russian convoy 
    Grey boat with number UA1049MA is a boat UMS-500 class of our UMS manufacturer. These boats are used by riverine police and Border State Guard. Probably all other boats on video are private. 
    On the photos Russian convoy after the raid 
    Also other victim of the raid - captured BTR-D 

    And the raid group after successful action

  17. Upvote
    c3k reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  18. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looking at these, I'm surprised by the choice of storage location for the RPG:
     

     
  19. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Russian retreat from Kiev.
     
    Yes, it was a defeat, and yes, some rearguards seemed to be in a rush. What is of interest to me, is the apparent lack of Ukrainian offense displayed. There were no pockets formed, no cutoffs. Were some retreating convoys harassed and fired upon? Yes, but that seems to be the limit of what occurred.
    Unless I've missed a massive amount of information being relayed from the area (hey, it is possible), it is disturbing (not quite alarming) that the Ukrainian armed forces seemed to be either unable or unwilling to interdict, destroy, encircle, or press the retreating forces.
    What does that matter? Well, it matters because those Russians were pulled out to reinforce the Donbass region. The Russians have gained territory. If the Ukrainian military is unable/unwilling to generate offensive combat during a retreat, how will they fare against an entrenched enemy?
    Posting these thoughts because I'm (hopefully) missing something here.
  20. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is my job and my headache %) 
  21. Upvote
    c3k reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For Pete's sake, it is not RACISM!! Not everything is RACISM!! It's simple BIGOTRY for crying out loud!!
    If you want to be all woke and politically correct about this horse****, at least use the right friggin words.
    And personally, I don't agree with either of your positions. The people of Russia, I think the gray masses in Russia should suffer under sanctions for allowing a criminal regime to exist. They should be despised and ostracized from civilization until they change, but they should not be condemned to torture and death. The RA should be brutally killed to the last man for their heinous inhumane barbarous conduct to the Ukrainian civilians. They are friggin savages and should be treated like such. There is no difference between them and ISIS at this point. Their torture, rape and murder can't be condoned and every member of every unit is responsible for the conduct of that unit and especially it's officers and NCO's, but that does not alleviate private Ivan for following orders, doing it on his own or standing aside and allowing it to happen. You play, you pay.
    But I'm an idealist and believe in right and wrong, good and evil. A hate filled heart is not a bad thing when it is aimed at evil. If this was happening on my soil, to my people, to my family, Kraze would have to push me out of the way to take his turn on the kill, maim, mutilate merry go round on those bastards.
    Man, if I get any  more fired up I might tell you how I really feel.  
  22. Upvote
    c3k reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I've seen this 30% thrown around earlier in the thread too. I just don't see the significance or applicability of it. The amount of casualties sustained by a force before it can no longer sustain operations has a lot more factors than just a percentage. Airborne units in Normandy took over 50% losses in less than 24 hours and stayed in the fight. 1 Pz Div in Barbarossa had lost 72% of it's armor by mid August and stayed in the fight. 1st Marine Division and attached units suffered over 60% casualties at the Chosin Reservoir yet were able to sustain operations.
    The flip side is the French Army in May 1940 took less than 15% casualties. The Malayan Command in Singapore in 42 took less than 5% casualties before capitulating. The Afrika Korps in Tunisia in 43 took less than 30%. Etc, etc, etc. Copious amounts of examples for both sides throughout history. I don't think we can base anything on percent of casualties when it comes to being able to stay in the fight and sustain operations.
    Just too many other factors to weigh with morale and logistics being huge. Does the taking of casualties degrade ability? Sure it does. Is there an arbitrary number that we can assign to know when that unit can no longer sustain operations? Nope, except maybe 100%. The Spartans would disagree with any other number.  
  23. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    According to Oryx, Russians/DPR captured at least 12 Javelin misiles, including 3 CLU in unknown conditions.
  24. Upvote
    c3k reacted to AlsatianFelix in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The live strategic map this group has been waiting for. Unit identifications. Locations. BTG quantities. Yet to be seen if this is timely or sustainable info:
    https://www.uawardata.com/
    Zoom in or click on a stack of counters and it breaks down into sub unit IDs.
  25. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Armorgunner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don´t know, how they know that? I´m from Sweden though. And NLAW is a Swedish product, developed by SAAB/Bofors. Even though it´s manufactured in the UK by Thales. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_Light_Anti-tank_Weapon
     
    I´m very happy though, that it seems to work very well in combat. And very happy for every Russian tank your boys knock out. That means one less, to threaten us!
     
    And the Ukrainian army, has proved it self. To be very effective, so far!!!
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