c3k

Looks like Poland sent to Ukraine own loitering munitions Warmate. There are no official statements about this. After 2015 were some talks about plans of license producing of Warmate in Ukraine, but this didn't happen. Warmate can be equipped with HEFRAG, HEAT (120 mm RHA), thermobaric warheads or devices for recon

A few thoughts
- the Russian forces are used to having quantity as the determining factor, as quantity has a quality all of its own. They used this method in WWII and in almost every other war they have fought (e.g. Georgia, Afghan). Once they could not afford to field an army in the millions, the doctrine of weight lost its ability to fight a near peer. 
- the Russians do have the ability to adapt, but it takes years as the system is resistant to change and there has to be some big setbacks to force change (all militaries tend to be change resistant but this goes above and beyond as corruption is the lifeblood of this leadership,  changing the system takes away big money). It took a few years in Afghan but at a tactical level is did become more proficient against a disorganized and fractured foe - air-mobile troops funneling jihadis into kill zones. They were still crap but they became  better than their opponent. Not a chance here as both time and the proficiency of the UA is working against them. 
- The Soviet/Russian system is plan oriented and not goal oriented (Look at Egypt in the Arab-Israeli wars).  You work towards the written plan, not the goal. But this is the better choice in a system with top down leadership. Authoritarian systems cannot allow a flexible structure as it may lead to an independent officer corp which creates greater problems.
- as with an independent officer corp, you also cannot allow your citizens to see the dynamism in a flexible near state. Russia cannot allow an independent Ukraine, China cannot allow a democratic Taiwan nor a democratic North Korea.
- How does a country with GDP smaller than Canada cause so much trouble? I can only imagine the power Russia would have had if it would have turned its focus onto enhancing its own society. A successful Russia with 4 x the GDP (just to be on par with Canada let alone the USA) would have actually created a counter-point to America and could have joined/directed the EU as Germany does today. It could have had respect, power, a rich and stable society. But perhaps it is better to reign in hell than to serve in heavan.

An interesting twitter round up tonight.
The report about the Kherson resistance is interesting to me
Could help to explain timing of the Kyiv withdraw as well.
In keeping with the authoritarian textbook, this reads to me like a classic 'accuse you of tricking people into saying we did the thing were actively preparing to do anyway.' 

Interesting breakdown of manning in one Russian high-readiness motor rifle brigade.  Not sure what the source is, but doesn’t seem implausible:

Extended version: That helo crew knew they were in a high-threat zone. Many changes in heading and altitude as they tried to escape/get through the zone. (Check the shadow of the helo, visible in parts of the video. Altitude is at or below 100'/35m, for much of that maneuvering.)
Good discipline by the manpad operator not to try to launch too soon. 
There is an art/science to flare dispensing, based on the seeker you're trying to defeat. Not sure if they ran out of flares, thought they were past the threat so stopped, or just tried a longer pause and were just about to start launching more.
Shrug. More Russian losses.

Extended version: That helo crew knew they were in a high-threat zone. Many changes in heading and altitude as they tried to escape/get through the zone. (Check the shadow of the helo, visible in parts of the video. Altitude is at or below 100'/35m, for much of that maneuvering.)
Good discipline by the manpad operator not to try to launch too soon. 
There is an art/science to flare dispensing, based on the seeker you're trying to defeat. Not sure if they ran out of flares, thought they were past the threat so stopped, or just tried a longer pause and were just about to start launching more.
Shrug. More Russian losses.

Azov fighters brought some food to children, hiding in underground shelters of Azovstal. You can see systems of passages. Most of civilains say they came here as far as ater 20th of March, but some sit here from behinning of March. Kids say they want to see a sky and sun again - they didn't see it so far two months. 
 

Further to my last post - here's a little more precision ...

The red lines which form an offset cross on the complex are the extreme left/right and up/down plots.  L-R distance is 138m and up/down distance is 281m.  The red line in the top left hand corner of the image is what was reported as the FEBA on 10 April.  This sequence; therefore, tells me it hasn't moved much in nearly two weeks.
Complex Strike.kmz

Longer video of how Russian Mi-8 was shot down with Igla MANPAD 21st of April near Malynivka, Zaporizhzhia oblast with 
 
 

To be fair to the Russians - there is only one military that is any good at SEAD and that is the US.  It pioneered the techniques and spent a lot of effort in acquiring the means to do it competently.  Nobody else spends enough money to properly resource the capability.  A jamming pod and an anti-radiation missile strapped to a fast jet (which is pretty much the extent of every other nation bar the US's capability) do not a SEAD capability make.

Finally, a (minor) topic where my water resources engineering experience may be relevant to this thread. Checking out this dam on google maps, I would say that it would be a poor target for sabotage. It appears to function to maintain local river depth for navigation and for diversion to agriculture. It would have very little flood control function, and would be more likely to be damaged by a flood than to cause one by failing. A quick look around finds several similar structures in the region that would have a higher potential for economic or infrastructure damage if they failed. If this was a target, it was probably a target of opportunity, not choice. Given the background rate of accidental infrastructure failure, I would hesitate to read too much into it.
The unrelated flooding pictured in the tweet, with the church on the hill, appears to be the Desna River in Bryansk, no where near the dam pictured on the Kuban river.
But mostly I registered (after lurking since the CMBO demo) to say thank you to everyone participating in this discussion. For what it's worth, I think the updates, analysis, and debate here are as good or better than anything I'm reading or listening to from professional news outfits and think-tanks. Thank you for being here and doing what you do.

Will be looking for more confirmation on this one. This would essentially almost decapitate the Russian forces in Kherson if true.

Yes exactly.
It is even developed to meet road traffic standards (like many NATO vehicles now).
To complete my previous position, another major advantage is that a very experienced crew (see an officer commanding the vehicle, it is a sergeant who normally commands such a vehicle) may be able to fire on their own in complete autonomy without the need for a command vehicle because it has its own firing computer that you can initialising yourself (afterwards you have to know how to do it). The vehicle by himself calculate the trajectory etc. It's a very, very rare practice (at least when I was still in the army) but it's quite possible.
The most common was that a command vehicle received the firing orders, sent them directly to our computer by crypted radio wave and you just had to press a button to aim it, load it (semi-automatic loading), add the propellant charge, close the bolt (also semi-automatic) and fire (no shell casing) ! To packup the barrel it's almost the same principle, it was enough to press a button (there are things to be careful or to close but the vehicle does not pack up with the force of the arms or with a crank ). 

The gun also had the capacity to make direct fire (at view) but as I stated before it's not the best thing since it's "fragile" but could be good against bunker and fortified positions.

About the inertial navigation system it is the same that is used on Rafale or nuclear submarine (that's a thing 😁)

Uups...
 
 

Yes. It really is a semi-automated and easy to use system. A crew training on this machine is really very fast. Frankly for people who already know artillery, it takes days to really be comfortable. Where it got long and quite complicated was on the commander's post because you have to know how to resolve anomalies, shooting incidents, vehicle settings (that's really where the difficulty lies) to operate the vehicle the best way possible. It is a weapon that is quite secure and very efficient, which is a good thing for the gunners but it requires knowing how the system reacts so as not to have a blockage. Personally, I knew the first versions that had software defects etc (which is normal for any new vehicle) and I quickly saw its reliability increase drastically (at least a decade ago). On top of that, we've had the time to perfect it and use it in real combat situations in Afghanistan or Iraq. Regarding the crew, it also depends on the type of ammunition used. It's easier to train a crew that uses simple fuzes than electronics ones which need to be configured electronically (it's still very simple, don't get me wrong, but it's still more complicated) 

No, like and with 50 soldiers in US training this will be not crews, but instructors, which will teach UKR crews

Reports of recent tremors: Perhaps a dissident set off a bomb under the table during the afternoon military briefing? And Putin only survived due to the heavy wooden construction of the table. Maybe this caused more tremors. And the fires reported were the FSB trying to root out the Valkyrie dissident agents and said agents trying to cover up their tracks?
 

My addendum: and Ukraine gets Crimea back and the PRE-2014 borders, reparations, prosecutions, and a Russian demilitarized zone extending at least 100km back from the border, and the elimination of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Reports of recent tremors: Perhaps a dissident set off a bomb under the table during the afternoon military briefing? And Putin only survived due to the heavy wooden construction of the table. Maybe this caused more tremors. And the fires reported were the FSB trying to root out the Valkyrie dissident agents and said agents trying to cover up their tracks?
 

Today, the Aerospace Defense Research Institute in Tver Russia had an explosion and burned to the ground. They did Iskander and S-300 (?) research and development.
Also today, the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, the largest producer of chemical solvents in Russia, had a major fire.
Hmmmm.......
 

His wife had probably insisted on a pink bathroom or something ... 😉

Interview with captured Russian airborne soldier.
A video of a captured Russian soldier from 31st Airborne Assault Brigade, who was part of the first wave to attack (presumably) Hostomel, and is the only survivor of his company. He doesn't appear to be coerced and amongst other things (a) says that the individual soldiers weren't briefed about the mission until they were on the helicopters inbound for the attack (b) describes the effects of Ukrainian artillery on his unit (c) describes another company being merged with his own because their combat losses (d) gives his opinion about his units level of training. 
The interview is 25 minutes long, subtitled,and repays watching.
 
 

We must make more progress on boat liquidation!

What? Did someone just mention "flares"?