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LongLeftFlank

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  1. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  2. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Sgt Joch in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  3. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IIRC, the ancien regime also encouraged the Komsomol/managerial class youth to go, with the idea that it would solidify their socialist principles and toughen them up. (kind of like Great Helmsman Xi talks about today, although he isn't putting it in practice)
    So the bereaved parents in this case had some clout.
    ...In contrast, also IIRC, Putin has been shielding the elites in the metropoles (Moscow, StP) from conscription, instead draining the rust belt towns and countryside (that are demographically way short of non-geriatric men, particularly skilled trades), as well as immigrants, criminals, etc.
    The current and future effects of all this on 'Russian' society are manyfold.
    ****
    So when we speak of avoiding a collapse of central authority postwar (or rather, following the death of Putin) we may really be talking about 'managing' a slow-mo collapse.
    ...or in practice, which factions we back (likely driven by who the Chinese back).
    Basically, the next 'Great Game' could well feature Russia as the chessboard, not the player.
  4. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IIRC, the ancien regime also encouraged the Komsomol/managerial class youth to go, with the idea that it would solidify their socialist principles and toughen them up. (kind of like Great Helmsman Xi talks about today, although he isn't putting it in practice)
    So the bereaved parents in this case had some clout.
    ...In contrast, also IIRC, Putin has been shielding the elites in the metropoles (Moscow, StP) from conscription, instead draining the rust belt towns and countryside (that are demographically way short of non-geriatric men, particularly skilled trades), as well as immigrants, criminals, etc.
    The current and future effects of all this on 'Russian' society are manyfold.
    ****
    So when we speak of avoiding a collapse of central authority postwar (or rather, following the death of Putin) we may really be talking about 'managing' a slow-mo collapse.
    ...or in practice, which factions we back (likely driven by who the Chinese back).
    Basically, the next 'Great Game' could well feature Russia as the chessboard, not the player.
  5. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  6. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  7. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IIRC, the ancien regime also encouraged the Komsomol/managerial class youth to go, with the idea that it would solidify their socialist principles and toughen them up. (kind of like Great Helmsman Xi talks about today, although he isn't putting it in practice)
    So the bereaved parents in this case had some clout.
    ...In contrast, also IIRC, Putin has been shielding the elites in the metropoles (Moscow, StP) from conscription, instead draining the rust belt towns and countryside (that are demographically way short of non-geriatric men, particularly skilled trades), as well as immigrants, criminals, etc.
    The current and future effects of all this on 'Russian' society are manyfold.
    ****
    So when we speak of avoiding a collapse of central authority postwar (or rather, following the death of Putin) we may really be talking about 'managing' a slow-mo collapse.
    ...or in practice, which factions we back (likely driven by who the Chinese back).
    Basically, the next 'Great Game' could well feature Russia as the chessboard, not the player.
  8. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IIRC, the ancien regime also encouraged the Komsomol/managerial class youth to go, with the idea that it would solidify their socialist principles and toughen them up. (kind of like Great Helmsman Xi talks about today, although he isn't putting it in practice)
    So the bereaved parents in this case had some clout.
    ...In contrast, also IIRC, Putin has been shielding the elites in the metropoles (Moscow, StP) from conscription, instead draining the rust belt towns and countryside (that are demographically way short of non-geriatric men, particularly skilled trades), as well as immigrants, criminals, etc.
    The current and future effects of all this on 'Russian' society are manyfold.
    ****
    So when we speak of avoiding a collapse of central authority postwar (or rather, following the death of Putin) we may really be talking about 'managing' a slow-mo collapse.
    ...or in practice, which factions we back (likely driven by who the Chinese back).
    Basically, the next 'Great Game' could well feature Russia as the chessboard, not the player.
  9. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IIRC, the ancien regime also encouraged the Komsomol/managerial class youth to go, with the idea that it would solidify their socialist principles and toughen them up. (kind of like Great Helmsman Xi talks about today, although he isn't putting it in practice)
    So the bereaved parents in this case had some clout.
    ...In contrast, also IIRC, Putin has been shielding the elites in the metropoles (Moscow, StP) from conscription, instead draining the rust belt towns and countryside (that are demographically way short of non-geriatric men, particularly skilled trades), as well as immigrants, criminals, etc.
    The current and future effects of all this on 'Russian' society are manyfold.
    ****
    So when we speak of avoiding a collapse of central authority postwar (or rather, following the death of Putin) we may really be talking about 'managing' a slow-mo collapse.
    ...or in practice, which factions we back (likely driven by who the Chinese back).
    Basically, the next 'Great Game' could well feature Russia as the chessboard, not the player.
  10. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IIRC, the ancien regime also encouraged the Komsomol/managerial class youth to go, with the idea that it would solidify their socialist principles and toughen them up. (kind of like Great Helmsman Xi talks about today, although he isn't putting it in practice)
    So the bereaved parents in this case had some clout.
    ...In contrast, also IIRC, Putin has been shielding the elites in the metropoles (Moscow, StP) from conscription, instead draining the rust belt towns and countryside (that are demographically way short of non-geriatric men, particularly skilled trades), as well as immigrants, criminals, etc.
    The current and future effects of all this on 'Russian' society are manyfold.
    ****
    So when we speak of avoiding a collapse of central authority postwar (or rather, following the death of Putin) we may really be talking about 'managing' a slow-mo collapse.
    ...or in practice, which factions we back (likely driven by who the Chinese back).
    Basically, the next 'Great Game' could well feature Russia as the chessboard, not the player.
  11. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My understanding was it was $ and upset citizens (especially mothers of casualties). 
    On the subject of $ back then, like now, the war cost a lot and it was effecting people's standard of living which they didn't like. But unlike now there was no "deal" with citizens to improve their standard of living so it wasn't as serious an issue back then.
    On the subject of upset citizens, there were protest groups protesting the loss of their loved ones. This was tolerated since it wasn't viewed as direct challenge to the authority of the Kremlin. It got out of hand especially combined with the previous issue. Or there was a concern in the Kremlin it could get out of hand. Since they didn't view the Afghanistan conflict as existential they could pull back. Note they kept control of key parts of the country for a while after the pull out. The Najibullah government lasted for several years without the issues of the Soviet occupation.
    Putin could be facing the same pressures except he learned from the Afghan war and the fall of the Soviet Union. All protests are a direct challenge to his authority, period. He has been dealing with all protest harshly from the beginning. He also realized that if the people don't know the truth then they cannot complain about it. Hence his work from the start to take the old Soviet "you cannot trust any source as correct" propaganda method but dialed up to 11 and combined with just covering up the number of casualties.
    Back in the Afghan war the "loss" of the war was not existential to the Kremlin - they started it to quell Islamic unrest. While the loss itself seemed bad they really maintained control for a long time after they pulled out through their usual proxy arrangement so it didn't seem so important compared to the cost any more.
    Whereas this current war is existential to Putin since he made it that way when he started.
    That's the Cole's notes from memory.
    My take away is that Putin learned the lessons of that part of history well and applied them here.
  12. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, technically Dönitz...
  13. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So here is the real question, is Putin Hitler, or is he Gadaffi? Gadaffi was a wildly annoying bleep, but he was mostly dangerous to his own people, mostly. Hitler on the other hand was going to keep going until he was stopped, every victory he ever won just fueled his appetite for more. So would Putin be willing to accept a half a loaf in Ukraine, or even a whole one, and decide he could spend the rest of his years in some semblance of peace? Or does every victory simply give him an appetite for more and bigger conquests? I would point out he basically got away with Crimea, and was very notably not wise enough to quit. But Crimea didn't cost half a million casualties and counting, and most of Russia's military inheritance from the USSR. I don't claim to know the answer to the question, but it is the one we really need to be asking.
     
  14. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So here is the real question, is Putin Hitler, or is he Gadaffi? Gadaffi was a wildly annoying bleep, but he was mostly dangerous to his own people, mostly. Hitler on the other hand was going to keep going until he was stopped, every victory he ever won just fueled his appetite for more. So would Putin be willing to accept a half a loaf in Ukraine, or even a whole one, and decide he could spend the rest of his years in some semblance of peace? Or does every victory simply give him an appetite for more and bigger conquests? I would point out he basically got away with Crimea, and was very notably not wise enough to quit. But Crimea didn't cost half a million casualties and counting, and most of Russia's military inheritance from the USSR. I don't claim to know the answer to the question, but it is the one we really need to be asking.
     
  15. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure this one has surfaced here yet:
    Obviously there's a lot of focus on the positives of drones, but how often do we think about how much they can encourage higher commanders to micromanage?
  16. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response.
    Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. 
    Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses?
    EDIT:  I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.).  Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.
  17. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response.
    Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. 
    Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses?
    EDIT:  I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.).  Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.
  18. Like
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response.
    Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. 
    Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses?
    EDIT:  I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.).  Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.
  19. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response.
    Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. 
    Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses?
    EDIT:  I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.).  Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.
  20. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure this a picture of the whole situation, but it certainly isn't bad news.
  21. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, seriously, I am tired of doing the homework here -
    It is called the M3 and goes back to Korean War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M2_Browning  And weighs 65 pounds https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196096/browning-m3-machine-gun/#:~:text=Gun weight%3A 65 lbs. - add on another couple hundred for turret etc.  Slightly faster rate of fire the Oberon 35mm who comes in with turret at 4.5t.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyranger_35.  Now you go do the freakin cost estimate and show which one is cheaper and easier to produce, even at a loss of muzzle velocity and frag.
    Exacto- yes it is.
    The new .50 BMG gun and improved scope could employ "fire-and-forget" technologies including "fin-stabilized projectiles, spin-stabilized projectiles, internal and/or external aero-actuation control methods, projectile guidance technologies, tamper proofing, small stable power supplies, and advanced sighting, optical resolution and clarity technologies". Its estimated availability at the time was 2015.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EXACTO

     
     
     
  22. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to MikeyD in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Patton in his pre-war writings considered the tank mg its primary and most useful weapon (Considering what cannons were mounted at the time maybe he had a point). More than 60 years later an M1A2 Abrams commander during Fallujah complained in this sort of fighting his tank is little more than an over-size mg platform. He wasn't complaining about the mg, he was complaining he only had one. Sherman at least had two.
  23. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think it's a bit funny that you take this as an example. A bamboo forest is 'real world terrain', but let's fly this swarm in a fir forest for a laugh.
    Impressive as this video is, it is a prepared demonstration, as is the Boxers'. We will never know how often they tried until they got one without a drone crashing.
    The Boxer demo is nothing more than an ad. And we all have seen enough of those to know what the difference between an ad and reality is. Now, some here seem to think that everyone who says, that this update is a good thing, has fallen for it and thinks this is the new Wunderwaffe that will end the war.
    Nope. I just think this is a good update to an existing system that makes it better. It will help in some situations and won't in others. That is all.
     
    Btw.: for once the Germans did not totally overengineer something and just went with what was available, and yet you still don't like it...
     
     
  24. Like
    LongLeftFlank reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Could be but not only example:
    Lotta doctoring going on
  25. Upvote
    LongLeftFlank got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Good! The slow blade penetrates the shield.
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