Holien

I'm not sure sharing a culture war "own the libs" video is really helping make your point, unless your point is that this kind of sensationalist propaganda exists, which we already know because that's what this branch of the conversation is about.
What I hope to get from this thread, and other serious conversations on the internet, is something that sifts out examples that are cherry-picked to push an agenda, something that tries to go beyond the usual ideological points-scoring. To really understand what is going on in a way that will lead to better outcomes in the future, we need to be data-driven, we need to consider analysis from experts in the field, we need people to make cases based on evidence that can been broadly and independently corroborated.
To be clear, I have nothing against propaganda per se. It has its uses, in particular to influence people who are politically uninterested and/or ignorant. When discussing propaganda it is perfectly reasonable to say that "people can believe what they want" because the goal of propaganda is not to educate but to influence. In a country with freedom of expression and freedom of religion, we should accept that there is always some portion of the population that is going to hold convictions based purely on vibes and woo. When bad guys try to leverage the democratic power of those people, bad stuff happens, and that's the price we pay for living in a democracy. I can assure you, it does not work the same way under an authoritarian government.
But in a scholarly environment, or a professional environment, or a (mostly) serious discussion like this thread... That's where I think letting this kind of propaganda in the door is counter-productive. It might give us an insight into how people think, and how those with power are trying to influence people to think, but at the end of the day that's only one small component of the issue, and due to its sensationalist nature, it can distract from more important signals. It's more helpful and more interesting (to me) to think about the effect of this propaganda than to simply parrot it.
For example, here is a recent article discussing how LLMs can aid in disinformation campaigns: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666827024000215
Or - and apologies for the sidetrack into my own personal area of expertise - here is part of an ongoing investigation into a multi-year probably state-sponsored operation to try subvert a key piece of infrastructure used in computers and other devices all over the world: https://research.swtch.com/xz-timeline
That is what these guys are up to. I want to talk about how we can defeat that stuff, to protect the democracy and freedoms we hold dear.
Let's go back to Ukraine. Perun responds with facts to pro-Russia critics on his previous video who falsely claimed that of course the Russian export industry is suffering because that's just how it goes in war. Spoiler: that is not how it goes.
 

Russian T-62 (?) in tsar-coup-cage and camo

Remains of "Aeropract" A-22 small aircraft, turned into drone was recovered on the impact place in Yelabuga
Maybe it would be better to dismount chassis and launch the plane with catapult - instead of chassis weight to put more HE
 

This little mini documentary shows how lucky Wittmann was.
Excellent work by the tank museum!!!!

And also “absolutely”.  We should track loses, terrain etc as exactly that, indicators.  In sums they can signal trends, which are extremely important for telling wind directions.
Where things get weird is when people take these trends as actually metrics of victory and/or defeat.  Adiivka was a long brutal tactical offensive that really has not yielded an operational consequence, at least not yet.  It is a data point within the war.  Not a fundamental sign any one side is “winning or losing”.  Ironically, those using Russian advances over the winter as an indicator that “The Hot Thread Has No Clothes” are using “heuristics”.  Which we have been all schooled upon as our own original “sin.”
The reality is that we need to see operational level decisions that change strategic options before we can say the tide is shifting.  If Russia could have translated Adiivka into an operational manoeuvre and was at the gates of Kharkiv right now, with a view to splitting Ukraine in half…well then we are definitely into “uh, ok something has really shifted here” territory.  Ukraines strategic options would be collapsing in this scenario, which to my eyes is a real metric.
Taking Adiivka or Bakhmut as signs of Russian winning, resolve or invincibility, only demonstrates a serious lack of understanding how war actually works.  And strangely, where were these people when Ukraine was making similar small limited tactical gains last summer?  Oh wait, they were here crowing about how “Ukraine is done!”
There is a clear double standard in some western political circles.  And this part really makes me angry.  Real people are suffering and dying in the largest conventional war we have seen in a long time.  And the first thing some people are doing is viewing it through the “I will do the opposite of what the other political party is doing because they cannot win.”  Not what is morally right or wrong.  What is best for their personal political calculus.  That is what really makes me react to these trolls.  They do not have the best interests of anyone at heart, but their own.  It is an extremely selfish way to approach something as brutal and unjust as this war.

Dormitories and factory are part os single "special economical zone "Alabuga" - students involved into works on the factory. And reportedly this is not "forced labor" - they gain experience in high-techology branch, get reservation from conscription and get payment. So, most of theese young people willing to work there. And the srike on dormitories, as write some our sources was deliberate - to make panic and "uncertainity" among young enginners, IT, managers etc.
Of course, many of them may tell "I am for peace and I don't do anything bad - just write a code"
Russians claimed refinery didn't get serious damages, because drone "hit the fence", Well, we can see what a "fence" was really hit, but likely about results we will know later. Reportedly rectifical column on 8 mln.tons/year was hit
Today Russian sources reported "Severstal" company officially claimed the halted biggest blast furnace in Russian afetr drone attack about months ago. Investigations showed it will need several months of repair with 37 billion rubles cost.

This is the key point to take away from the rather tedious past couple days on this thread.
The challenging part is that propagandists can come up with reams and reams of verbose, officious-sounding nonsense much faster than anyone can challenge it. This was already the case before large language models made it trivial to create pages of vaguely reasonable-sounding claptrap at the push of a button. Now it is worse. And when those propagandists are also working for authoritarian states that exercise near-totalitarian controls over the media landscape within their borders, they are also able to capture plenty of real-life stories that support the views they want to shape, while suppressing the spread of content that does not.
Out here in the actually-free world, the propaganda coming from these authoritarian government mouthpieces seems laughably ineffective. How could anyone believe something that is such unabashed, unadulterated, full-blown propaganda? They're not even pretending it's otherwise! And yet, people believe it. "Free thinkers" with chips on their shoulders about their own government get bamboozled into believing that they are the ones living in an authoritarian state, actually. And then the "news" coming out of other authoritarian states can surely be no more fake than their own news, and, by the way, what is news other than propaganda, at the core? There are no facts, only interpretations, you see. This is why I don't mind you doubting. What is truth, anyway? Does anybody love anybody anyway?
It is depressing how many people fall into this hole.
This is not only why it is important to counter the Kremlin's lies, but also to consistently push back against the same kind of democracy-eroding rhetoric coming from media and political figures in parts of the world where there still is freedom of expression and freedom of association and so on. The people pushing it tend to either be useful idiots, or privileged enough (through age, wealth or power) to be insulated from the consequences. In both cases, not the best folks to be looking toward to inform your view of the world.

On victory and defeat - because it is the basis of so much “proof” on the opposing sides of this thing.  In warfare victory and defeat are very slippery concepts.  One can win a war by all metrics and wind up losing in the long run (see European Allies after WW1 and 2).  The vice versa is also possible (see Japan).  So whenever someone jumps in with the “Ukraine is obviously losing, Russia is winning” or vice versa, without clearly defining what that means, I get suspicious.
For now the best way to try and determine what victory/defeat means in this war, one needs to come to a common understanding of what the initial political and strategic goals of this war for each side were and were not.
When I am looking at the “winning/losing” equation I am using the following objectives.
For Ukraine:
- the survival of the state as independent and sovereign.
- the creation of a narrative of effective resolve and resistance that draws in international support.
- shape and set the conditions for enduring security integrity at wars end (this one is key to effective reconstruction and recovery).
For Russia:
- the complete political absorption control of Ukraine as a vassal state or sub-state.
- a clear demonstration of Russian power within its Near Abroad designed to push back on Western encroachment and reinforce the notion that other states within this region need to “stay in line”.  This one plays to both external and internal audiences.
- any and all erosion of NATO unity and resolve, as well as a draw back of US influence in the region.
For the West (we often forget we have a win/lose calculus here as well):
- A clear demonstration of the western rules based international order.  Russia must be forced to get back in line and face punitive measures for an illegal invasion that violates the rules we constructed.  To this end we support Ukraines objectives; however, we do not need all of them in full to achieve ours. We do need a clear demonstration of western unity and resolve as a foundational underpinning for that western rules based order.
- Any opportunities to expand western influence and control - see Sweden and Finland.
- the reduction of Russia as a security threat to Europe and globally.
- Avoid a catastrophic collapse of Russia at all costs as it would make the overall regional situation, and possibly global one much worse.
You will note that for me none of these are tied directly to lines on the ground.  I do not believe that where this war ends drive those strategic objectives (within reason of course - if Russia takes Kyiv the viability of Ukrainian state is greatly diminished).  
By my metrics, Russia has already pretty much “lost” this thing.  They can hold onto to what they have now but none of their strategic objectives are accomplished.  They end the war in worse position than when they started it.  Their only Hail Mary is that western support and attention dries up over time and they can exploit that to try and pull this one out of the dumpster.  The odds of full Russian control over Ukraine by this point are pretty damn low.  Much worse than at wars beginning.
Ukraine has two out of three, that last one of setting conditions for enduring security has not been accomplished. Ukraines long game is to enter into western economic and security mechanisms.  They definitely have earned that but we have the thorny issue of Russia still able to make trouble and project that into Ukraine.  We can live with a level of this a la South Korea, but I suspect we will need this thing to hold more water to work.
The West is doing well but we are not there yet, and things could still go bad quickly.  We definitely have shored up influence, control and unity. And we have managed to reduce Russian threats pretty significantly as the Russian military has been shattered. What we do not have are the conditions for long term stabilization. Russia is neither a zero-threat nor stable in the long term.
So to summarize…on victory/defeat so far:
Russia - nope.
Ukraine - OK, but not there yet.
West - meh, so long as we don’t blow the whole thing up.
I hope this is useful for the next time someone rolls through here with “well obviously Russia is winning” due to some headline about a tactical twitch somewhere.  They likely are not using the same metrics I do and in many cases have ulterior motives for painting this war in a certain light.

Ukrainian manufactured Aeroprakt a22 ultra light aircraft being used as a kamikaze drone on Shahed factory. Range to target ~ 1200km.
Supposedly this one didnt hit the factory but a building (dormitory) infront of it, but there was another explosion, maybe that one hit the production facility 
 
Maybe instead of scrapping A-10s, they should be converted to well armored drones?😄 This plane survived 8 hours in russian airspace

Shahed plant go boom. 1000km from front. 
 

While I'm sure it is tempting to see this guy's posting as some sort of April Fools prank or maybe some kid with to much time on his hands trying to "troll" us. Perhaps a paid Russian troll?
The reality is going by the fact that he registered on this forum before 9/11 even happened, he is likely a grown man who has accepted the Kremlin's propaganda as truth.
This is a scary thought but not surprising for me given how many seemingly normal people I've seen on social media who are now parroting the Kremlin's line.
While Russia's military machine leaves a lot to be desired for the Russians, I think their psychological operations like the infamous troll factories are maybe more effective than we care to think about.
A good reminder of how important it is to counter the Kremlin's lies with the truth no matter how we can.

You know, you're right. This just like the McCarthy hearings. 
Do we not, at long last gentlemen, have any sense of decency?

Lucky on that day, less so some weeks later...
By the way @George MC's versions of both of these battles are excellent if you haven't tried them.

Ok, so looking at the actual poll, this is typical media/political spinning. The headline conveniently leaves out that 70% think that the US should either continue or increase aid to Ukraine with the only split being whether it is given with or without oversight. 
The actual question (question 4 of the poll) was "How much of a role do you believe the US should have in helping to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war?" 71% responded with either a major role or a minor role by combining the two choices. The question was not what the headline above says and neither was the answer. Later on question 7, 69% respond that they support the US urging Ukraine to negotiate a settlement to the war. Maybe that is because most people want wars to end? 
In the end a typical poll with wishy-washy questions that can be interpreted to the will of whatever political slant one wants.
edited to add link to poll: https://quincyinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Quincy-Institute_rev-tabs.pdf

This little mini documentary shows how lucky Wittmann was.
Excellent work by the tank museum!!!!

Seriously guys, why are we (yet again) feeding the troll?
It's not like he has anything useful or even coherent to say, or is objectively considering counter points from various people, so... Why? 
It's just clutter, now. 
 

This little mini documentary shows how lucky Wittmann was.
Excellent work by the tank museum!!!!

Hmmm I wonder if the limited drones they have had up to this point had other more important targets on the actual front line....
Russia has had trouble even hitting stationary targets.
Ukraine has only just had the manufacturing capacity and capabilities to hit Russian oil facilities these things take time to develop, test and then manufacture in quantity. 
It will no doubt happen at some stage but to say it should have been done already is a bit naive...
I have had clients like you and I just smile...
If it was easy it would have been done already...
Humans you gotta love them...

Another BOOM of BMP-3
And result of Russian attack attempt on Robotyne. 10 vehicles minus.
 

Russians activated on Avdiivka direction again. Small groups tactic agian was changed on mass assaults. Enemy has advace in Semenivka area. Near Tonen'ke was spotted most large number of simultainously used armored vehicles in one attack at least for Avdiivka campaign - about 36 tanks and 12 BMPs. Reportedly 12 tanks and 8 BMPs were destroyed/damaged. Maybe video coming soon. 47th mech.brigade still holds Russians in Berdychi area.
Some details. 6th tank regiment of 90th tank division attacked and was decimated. This is the same regiment, which tried to drive to Kyiv through Brovary in column order during 8-11th of March 2022 and also suffered heavy losses, including own commander (the same episide, similar to first battle of "Shield of Kyiv" campaign). Russian TG claimed for two years of war 90th tank division changed two divisional sets of armored vehicles and alsmost the same number of personnel.
 

This little mini documentary shows how lucky Wittmann was.
Excellent work by the tank museum!!!!

What's your point? What have you added?
Humans you gotta love them...

Hmmm I wonder if the limited drones they have had up to this point had other more important targets on the actual front line....
Russia has had trouble even hitting stationary targets.
Ukraine has only just had the manufacturing capacity and capabilities to hit Russian oil facilities these things take time to develop, test and then manufacture in quantity. 
It will no doubt happen at some stage but to say it should have been done already is a bit naive...
I have had clients like you and I just smile...
If it was easy it would have been done already...
Humans you gotta love them...

What's your point? What have you added?
Humans you gotta love them...