Holien

Peace on Russian corruption and dated equipment.  But almost everything you list on that Type 45 is designed either for 1) enemy conventional aircraft, 2) enemy missiles and 3) enemy conventional surface combatants.
Not a lot are designed for swarming small surface or air systems, let alone small underwater systems.  Ships create big defensive bubbles but are not designed nor built for these sorts of threats, any better than modern mech was.
So if someone were to say, swarm that Type 45 with 50-100 small surface and flying FPVs those systems would quickly be overwhelmed, particularly in choppy seas.  None of those small system could kill that Type 45 but they could do critical damage which is just about as good as.
We of course are going keep putting up freakin Thales commercials and feel better until someone seriously damages one of these ships out on the open ocean.  Gawd help us when sub-surface gets into the game.  And then someone is going to hybrid and put FPVs onto a small subsurface vehicle so we get twice the fun. 

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.
Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.
What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).
Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

What does this fellow have?
Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

Two Phalanx CIWS

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target
Two .50 Cals

It is already impressive but here is more. 
T45 usually have at least one helicopter

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.
Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

This is how LMM works (different mount)
The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost.
Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

Moscow Exchange Abruptly Halts Trading as Technical Issues Surge in Russia (newsweek.com)
Trading on Russia's stock exchange was abruptly halted on Tuesday due to technical issues, authorities said.
The Moscow Exchange, the largest exchange group in Russia, was halted at 1:58 p.m. Moscow time (5:58 a.m. ET). The platform said that trading on the stock market would resume at 3:45 p.m. Moscow time. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.
Part of the issue is that Russia has relied on Western microchips to power items such as laptops and smartphones. However, sanctions imposed on the country following Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have meant the Kremlin has faced obstacles in procuring foreign-made chips and is now attempting to ramp up domestic production.
The Moscow Exchange said the issue was caused by a hardware error on the main server. "According to the exchange's procedures, in case of such an error occurring, a switch to the backup server is carried out, which takes a little over an hour," it said in a statement.
The Moscow Exchange previously halted trading for four hours on September 13, 2023. Earlier, in 2015, the trading platform experienced 11 simultaneous failures caused by technical issues.
Independent Russian news outlet The Moscow Times reported on Tuesday that technical issues surged in Russia last year, driven by Western sanctions imposed in response to President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.
Mikhail Sizov is managing partner of Mobius Technologies, a Russian technology consulting firm. He told local publication Kommersant that demand from Russian companies for the repair of hard drives, tape drives, controllers, motherboards and other components of foreign computer equipment increased fivefold in 2023, compared to the previous year.
"Last year, 80 percent of our requests for repairs occurred in the second half of the year. We plan to develop this area by expanding the list of components that we can restore," Sizov told the outlet. He added that he believed this surge was linked to "sanctions pressure and problems in the logistics of equipment supplies."
Sizov said there is a lack of spare parts in the Russian market, and many crucial components are sold at an inflated price.
In September 2023, Kommersant published a government document that said Russia won't be able to ditch critical Western technology any time soon, despite the fact that Russian officials are asking that the use of microchips from the West be phased out by 2035.
Kommersant said it would cost at least 400 to 500 billion rubles ($4.4 billion to $5.5 billion) to expand the production of microchips in the country at a volume that will compensate for the industry's current shortage.

[EDIT] Sorry, it is old report from January. I confused dates.
Regarding Kstov Fuel Plant I wrote about earlier RU reports
Anatoly Nesmian (RU civilian Girkin) comments
 

If I were Taiwan, I would start building 4 factories for these naval drones this week. They are shockingly effective.

Deep State and Mashovets reports UKR marines are slowly expanding the bridgehead in Krynky

A bit of good news from Avdiivka
This night UKR destroyed column of RU reinforcements moving toward the breach

Also, UKR soldier reports

RU Nats complain that simple machine gunners using unstabilized mounts are the primary defense of RU Navy warships against drones. These gunners have an effective range of a few hundred meters. So, I think drones imitate attacks but halt outside the effective range of Russian machine gunners. When they find an area not covered by MGs, one goes for a kill while the rest of them transmit the results for BDA.

Regarding fires at RU fuel plants. Below is Milov explanation (from the interview)
The production of RU fuel began to drop. It has already fallen by 4%, with Lukoil production fallen by 8%. It is a significant drop because the RU fuel market is quite delicate. There are two factors here: UKR strikes and a rise in equipment failure due to unknown [to Milov] causes, but most likely due to poor maintenance and repair as a result of sanctions [sanctions work but more slowly than expected]. All of the equipment used to produce high-quality gasoline is Western. The RU has just about two dozen fuel plants. Thus, critical disruption of RU fuel production is possible. It is possible to achieve this by damaging or destroying two types of infrastructure. First, facilities for catalytic cracking which is essential for high-quality gasoline production (Kstovo plant strike). CC facility can be easily targeted, and RU has few of them (and they are all western, so there is no quick replacement or manufacturer assistance).  As result at the moment Lukoil is unable to repair the damaged CC facility in the Kstovo plant. The second type is the Primary Oil Refinery facility (Krasnodar plant strike). The damage to the POR facility interrupts the entire oil production process, but replacements are simpler to find. It's worth noting that only five main fuel plants supply the European part of RU. Other plants are either smaller, older (cannot produce high-quality fuel), or too far away. So, the present UKR campaign of oil plant strikes is smart and sensible. It is already causing problems for RU. The average price has already increased by 30-50 kopeeks [RU cents] per liter. 
 
The Russian government is going to apply significant pressure on oil companies to keep prices from increasing (which may succeed in the near run). However, the RU gasoline market is in a fragile state right now, and if the UKR campaign continues, it will cause major issues.
 

All good points, I also wonder whether going straight at the ship leaves a wake which is easy to see in the dark. By manoeuvring erratically the wake will be obscured by waves and so the drone will be hard to spot, even with image intensifiers. 

I appreciated the diversion as it was useful to understand the possible risks.
Thanks for letting it divert a tad...
Lots can happen from now to November so it is not certain the Orange liar can win.
The good out of this is that Europe seems to still be engaged and supporting Ukraine and will realise that they might have to go it alone.
Ukraine now needs to cut it's cloth to what they have on hand and if we can keep on supplying enough long range missiles and perhaps new airframes the corrosive warfare can continue to hurt Russia even if the possibility of regaining terrority is less likely.

Regarding Trump, hi from Latin America (Argentina) land of great football and sometimes populist egomaniacs...
I´ll just paste something I wrote in January of 2017 on another forum:
"Coming from a country with it´s fair share of populists in it´s history, let me tell you a couple of things about what will happen:

First: it´s not about policies, it´s not about facts, now it´s only about power and how to keep it

Second: the only thing that will be rewarded is loyalty, it may or may not align with skills, it doesn't matter any more

Third: it´s not about liberal and conservative, It´s not about democrat or republican, now it´s about trump or anti trump, there will be no middle ground to hide, both coalitions will have members of previous coalitions, those won´t matter much anymore, more republicans will be on Trump´s coalition because he was elected as one of course

Fourth: his only objective is reelection, and after that a third mandate, and a fourth and so on, to this end he will push any policy he deems useful, left wing or right wing, won´t matter, he sometimes will be align with former liberal/democrat ideas, he will take ownership of anything that promotes him, claiming it was his idea all along

Fifth: any source of check and balances will be targeted as traitorous, anti american, etc., this includes the press, other parties, the supreme court, whatever, anyone he sees as a member of the anti trump coalition is now a target, for now of rhetoric only, time will tell how far he will be allowed to go, and don´t think for a second there is something he won't do, or that he has any moral limit, he doesn't

Good luck trying to rationalize his government into anything other than an ego trip

His only weak point is succession, like every populists he hates the idea of giving power up, to anyone, even his children, he won´t groom a successor and get mad every time this point comes up

I sincerely hope current checks and balances work, but I´m not optimistic, lots of people will come under the spell, it´s tough times for anyone that can´t escape facts, reason, science, for those are now the enemies of the US government."
 
Not spot on in every point, but It came close to happen the first time around, now he has evolved and learned, it will be worst.
The paradox is that it was in the hands of Republican Senators to impeach and keep him out of office for good, they failed.
 
 

They just got done swatting down a border bill that had everything they were asking for, because Trump needs that issue to run on to scare older white folks who live nowhere near a good Mexican restaurant. He has no other issue to really campaign for. 
The US mis leadership class, if willing to just allow a two bit conman to become dictator, proves that this system and those that defend it deserve every heap of scorn that radicals put on them.  
I'm not going to accept American Putinism, even if they win the election. I will not comply and I hope most of the civil service and military defies him and his thugs, openly and directly.
 
 

IMO most important parts:
"This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types. Russian missile production has similarly increased. At the beginning of 2023, for instance, Russian production of Iskandr 9M723 ballistic missiles was six per month, with available missile stocks of 50 munitions."
"Of the tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, for example, approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernised from Russian war stocks. The number of systems held in storage means that while Russia can maintain a consistent output through 2024, it will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks."
"Perhaps the most serious limitation for Russia, however, is ammunition manufacture. In order to achieve its aspiration to make significant territorial gains in 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has assessed an industrial requirement to manufacture or source approximately 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024. Russian industry has reported to the MoD that it expects to increase 152mm production from around 1 million rounds in 2023 to 1.3 million rounds over the course of 2024, and to only produce 800,000 122mm rounds over the same period. Moreover, the Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years,"
"This means that to properly resource the armed forces, Russia must – in the short term – further draw down its remaining 3 million rounds of stored ammunition, though much of this is in poor condition. To further compensate for shortages, Russia has signed supply and production contracts with Belarus, Iran, North Korea and Syria, with the latter only able to provide forged shell casings rather than complete shells. Although the injection of around 2 million 122mm rounds from North Korea will help Russia in 2024, it will not compensate for a significant shortfall in available 152mm"
"The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time."

If one should have free time during tomorrow and/or next Thursday, National Defence University of Finland is hosting a Russia seminar: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar with quite interesting themes, topics and speakers: https://maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-seminar/programme   
Both days are streamed (if not hacked / interrupted by vatniks 🙂😞https://www.youtube.com/@Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu/streams

Hell, America disagreed with it last time, but that didn't help (see; popular vote)
Re: the appointments; yes, fair point, although AIUI there are /thousands/ of appointments that the president is entitled to make. As I recall, last time he was too busy golfing to fill most of them, and didn't really expect to win so didn't have a list ready to go. Slightly less laziness would fix both of those issues.
Edit: ~4,000 positions. That probably goes a bit deeper than just the figurehead at the top of each federal orgn
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_appointments_by_Donald_Trump

Guess what…Trump plans on firing swathes of Federal Employees: 
https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2022/07/trump-reelected-aides-plan-purge-civil-service/374842/
What would happen in that case is that Federal employees would and could sue both Trump and any agency head personally who carried out the order. Who would ignore the order. Agency employees would be getting locked out of offices. Protests. Violent reaction. Etc. 
 

It's confirmed Russians have used 3M22 "Zirkon" missile in Feb 7th strike on Kyiv. The missile more likely wasn't intercepted (see the lower video - it falls verticlally and no explosion in the sky)  
Ineteresting, that recently commander of Russian frigade "Admiral Gorshkov" told "Zirkon has outstanding accuracy - if we aim in the front door of building, that this missile hit exactly this front door in wose case - the next one". This comamnder has died by own death in December 2023. And Russian "outstanding accuracy" missile hit the ground between two malls (250-300 m from each) 
 

There is also a political component to it: capturing Avdiivka before the elections will unify and empower the War faction within Russia. Failure to do so will further destabilize Russia (see Wagner march after Bakhmut).

Sorry to interrupt the lively discussion about US politics, but I'd want to add my two cents regarding the Avdiivka situation.
Most likely, it will attempt to halt or slow down the current RU attack on the O0542 route. It is the most dangerous RU attack, with the potential to collapse the entire Avdiivka pocket rapidly. If 3rd manages to stop or slow this RU attack down, we could argue that 3rd indeed saved Avdiivka from quick collaps.
 
Most likely, Avdiivka is going to fall because the Russian gliding bombs (UMPK) have not been neutralized yet. Essentially, RU are simply leveling with UMPK UKR strong points that their meat groups encounter. The system works as follows: an RU meat group meets a UKR strong position, dies while the RU command watches it through drones and then RU command orders a bombing of the strong point into oblivion. A fresh RU meat group is then dispatched forward. So, given enough time and bodies, RU will capture the place that once was called Avdiivka. 
 
The situation is advantageous to UKR in Avdiivka. Avdiivka is the most fortified area in UKR. Even with UMPKs, the Koksohim plant and south urban areas are incredibly tough to breach, and RU losses are horrific.
The problem is there is a certain critical vulnerability that RU have found and are trying to exploit now. If they succeed, Avdiivka will fall swiftly. Much faster than it would be otherwise.
Let's discuss the overall situation and then look at my quick map.
RU failed to encircle Avdiivka via Stepove > Orlivka (north axis) and Vodyane > Tonenke (south axis). The assault via Tsarska Ohota (48.11372615890259, 37.77596770282691) toward the major urban area (that pipe infiltration) was originally successful but is now slow and painful. Finally, since the Azov Steel battle, RU want to avoid any major assaults on large plants such as Koksohim.
So, using their standard tactic of persistent pressure by meat groups along the front lines, they discovered the weak spot.

The O0542 road is the primary communication route for the Avdiivka defense sector. Assaulting via Avtobaza and Brevno is the shortest way to reach it. There are not many urban-style buildings in this village-style area. As a result, it provides sufficient concealment for assaulting RU meat groups while providing substantially less cover for UKR defenders against UMPKs.
If UKR manage to neutralize this assault they could hold Avdiivka a lot longer. So, I believe this is the reason UKR commit 3rd assault "to save Avdiivka".

I would strongly recommend Paxton's "Anatomy of Fascism" or John Ganz's online writings about anti-Dreyfusard and/or Boulangiste France. The model of fascism represented by Mussolini or Hitler is not quite what's happening to the GOP, subject as it is to the cultural and political mores specific to the United States. On the one hand, that's a good thing because the essentially immigrant/moderate/revolutionary/democratic foundation of the state makes blood and soil dictatorship a much harder prospect. But on the other, the United States also contains within it strains of racism and violent action that, should they ignite fully, can be positively Balkan. 
Luckily, there's one simple and decisive thing Americans can do. Vote. Vote for the current administration even if it isn't your cup of tea. Because if nothing else, it will remain within the normal bounds of politics. And (to remain on topic)...because it is far more likely to see the war in Ukraine to a positive conclusion. 

Put very simply, the attitudes and staff that were in the first Trump administration simply won't be there any more. There won't be a Pat Cippoline telling Trump he simply can't do certain things. You won't have a Esper counter programming Trump at the Pentagon, You will lhave instead Jeffery Clark, Kash Patel and Steven Miller calling the shots and Trump is openingly advertising a potential administration about 'retribution'. And the tools exist to make that happen short of a full scale dictatorship. For instance: 
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/07/trump-power-grab-00125767
So no, Trump doesn't need all three branches. 

Changes? Well, Democrats used to have a majority in the House, and Nancy Pelosi, whatever you may think of her politically, was a masterful Speaker of the House. So things like aide for Ukraine could make it through the House. The Senate, being (supposedly and usually) the more rational of the two houses, had broad support for Ukraine.
Now, Republicans control the House, with a weak and vulnerable Speaker, who has to do a lot of the bidding of the 8 or 12 or whatever the number is based on subject, rebellious Republicans - rebellious to their own party - or lose his job just like the last one did. The Senate remains more or less the same, at least on issues like Ukraine and NATO. Still supportive, but as we've seen just recently with the border security bill, scared witless of Trump, and ready to drop support at his bidding. Maybe that would change after election, should he win. Maybe not.
And the biggest danger that I see is that because of legislation Congress passed, a president cannot remove the US from NATO without the 2/3 consent of the Senate (an impossible hurdle to overcome, IMO), he could effectively render US participation in NATO non-existent. He could, by himself, remove all troops from Europe, or anywhere else. He could refuse to support with arms or troops a NATO ally under attack. He could, as he signaled just recently, invite Russia to do "whatever they Hell they want". He could send home our representatives to NATO's organizational structure and not replace them. He could gut the State Department. ALL of these things are functions of the Executive Branch, under the President's control. All he has to do is give orders for any of that, without Congress being involved.
So while I'm pretty sure their is very broad support for NATO in the Senate, and probably in the House, even with the Republican fringe trying to throw wrenches in the works, they themselves can't order troop movements, or provide aid even if it was voted for successfully and a president signed it. Again, the implementation of any of that falls under the Executive Branch.
Congress only other recourse should a president not honor NATO obligations would be a formal declaration of war against the aggressor. That is in Congress's control. But then, what would a president do, if he didn't agree with the declaration? I think, theoretically, he could just ignore it. If Congress passed bills and a president ignored them, the president could be impeached. But we see how that went, with a closely divided Congress.
This is how I currently see it, anyway. 
Dave

I think this is a big misread of what is happening and going to happen. 
Trump was limited in his first term by a several things: 
1. He did not actually expect to win the race and so didn't come into office with a coherent program. 
2. He didn't have any idea of how things worked and still saw value in working somewhat within the system.
3. He believed that he actually had alliances within the conservative movement...starting with the Federalist Society...who would safeguard his hold on office. 
Trump today is no longer that politician. He knows that he doesn't have allies in the conservative movement but also that they don't control the party any more. He does. He knows that the Pentagon won't willingly help him achieve power and he is embittered towards the generals he would be dealing with in a second term. He also is explicitly saying...along with potential VP candidates like Vance and Stefanik...that he will ignore Supreme Court decisions he doesn't agree with. Finally, at Heritage/Claremont/etc a coherent and nakedly fascist program is being articulated which includes pulling out of NATO, mass seizure and deportation on day 1 and worse. 
Trump's supporters in DC are making no bones about it. This is the big one. This is the emergency. Nobody should imagine that it will resemble the first term. 

She was
Orban is not a president. This is about Katelin Novak. She has only representative power. But despite this she was pro-Ukrainian unlike prime minister