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Holien

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  1. Upvote
  2. Upvote
    Holien reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Could we maybe dump the ad homs and the logic policing?
  3. Upvote
    Holien reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    1. Does 'other means' include immob kills by prior drone strikes (sure, there are a lot of flubs and misses as the FPS signal goes wonky at low level)?
    2. 'Vast majority'. If I may, it's (unfootnotable) declarations like this that keep getting you in trouble here. You seem to be pretending to a qualitative authority you just don't have (none of us do). 
    Andrew Perpetua has tried root causing, but I suspect that effort would elude even the Ukrainian Army itself.
  4. Upvote
    Holien reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is really just a question of current availability/prevalence of drones and is only going to get worse, not better.  As has been pointed out many times (by Steve most recently), you have to get the tanks to the front edge intact, and we're seeing the combination of ISR and drones taking out whole platoons and companies of armored vehicles on their way to the front.   And technically it's not really a drone problem so much as an ISR problem - the vehicles are going to get spotted very early and hit with something (drones, artillery, HIMARS, ATGM) before they can get into their own effective range.  And those "something"s are all much more accurate than they used to be, and often at much lower risk/exposure to their users than AT weapons used to be.
  5. Upvote
    Holien reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  6. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes but this discussion is about to become significantly more interesting.
    The real war experience showed us that
    Tanks  are significantly less useful on modern battlefields (due to overall vulnerability, lack of agility, high cost). To the point that they are no longer required and generally we can fight without them.  However, there are two specific cases (one is specific case of AT defense, another is specific case of infantry fire support) where High velocity High caliber gun mounted on the platform with heavy frontal armor will outperform other platforms be it artillery, ATGMs or drones. Both sides of the debate are right in some aspects but also both sides are wrong in other aspects. "Pro-tank" side overstates general utility and understates vulnerability of a tank. It is highly unlikely that tank would be as important as it was during Cold War. It is surely stay usefull and relevant as niche tool.   "Anti-tank" side correctly states all the issues with tanks but dramatically overhype drone capabilities. There are limits and these limits unlikely to disappear in future. Sure drone technology is improving but counter-drone is improving as well and it (and laws of physics and costs) put severe limits on drone capabilities in some cases. For such cases it is  beneficial to have small number of tanks around.  Short example - Drones as weapon are not guaranteed to halt a massed armor attack in time. Properly executed armored attack (mech infantry company + tank platoon) will overran forward platoon or company strong point. However, drones are expected to cause 70%-90% percent of losses during assault itself and right after. This is of the reasons RU can often force UKR from their forward defensive positions but rarely can force operational breakthrough. There are very few things that can stop 120mm NATO slug. And non of that can be found on RU tanks. Also NATO tank can throw one slug every few seconds and these slugs will hit RU tank in less than 2 second. Non of the drones can outperform that. So, if you want to save your forward infantry unit against surprise competent armor attack you will have to keep few tanks around.  Yes, some of you might claim that in future drone swarms will destroy armor column in seconds. My answer is No. It is fantasy that does not take in to consideration laws of physics, cost and C-UAS capabilities. End of story. Obvioulsy, my comment lacks detailed explanation. But I intentionally focused on making it short - my earlier comment about m113 and Brad's employment is currently 5 pages long and still requires some editing and insertion of links and photos. 
  7. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  8. Like
    Holien got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  9. Like
    Holien got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    See the response from @billbindc
    It is no longer the Republican party but a cult and the folk that will be in power can not be compared in ANY way with the first term of Trump...
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry I don't have enough time to translate everything; the Russian economy is in crisis. On one side, there is significant inflation (10% is the official figure, not the real number). And no interest rate can correct that issue (it is a structural issue caused by Western sanctions). But on the other hand, their present 16% interest rate is practically killing the Russian economy and, particularly, its manufacturing capability.
    AFAIR Putin civils servants recently confessed that they keep interest rates so high to prevent inflation from quickly becoming hyperinflation, triggering widespread panic and everything else be damned becasue due to widespread panic everything else will be damned anyway. 
  11. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    there are too many assumptions there to take any of your conclusions at face value.
    1. We do not have any certainty about the US elections.  Not sure how you have concluded it is obvious Trump will win.  
    2. Russia does not have endless quantities of "meat"
    3. Russia's political plan sucked as much as its military.  Its international isolation is off the charts for what Putin expected.
    'Pariah': war leaves Russia shell of former self at Olympics (yahoo.com)
    4. Economically Putin has wrecked Russia for at least a generation - those oil fields aren't getting the parts they need with western oil companies out of the picture
    Sure we'd all love it if Russia just folded up its tent and left Ukraine completely.  The reality is however the war will drag on, but the cost to Russia is greater than its losses on the battlefield or even its current economic dilemma.  Putin will be remembered as the guy who finally buried Russia as a world power.
  12. Like
    Holien got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  13. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  14. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from ArmouredTopHat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  15. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please heed Steve's advice re the election and new candidate. People are posting opinions not fact and a week is a long time in politics. I would love to wade into the BS comments but I will restrain...
    We have plenty of weeks to go.
    So enough unless it relates directly to Ukraine...
    😉
  16. Like
    Holien got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  17. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.
    Winter is coming...
  18. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I believe there is actually an ancient fable about this.
    "But now we will both surely drown" said the Hungarian toad.
    "Lol" said Budanov. "Lmao." And activated his jetpack.
     
    Orban's full control of the media means he can already spin anything in any way. 
    That won't make fuel prices go down. 
    Now he will have to make a deal with someone else. These someones are countries with deep sea ports for tanker ships, like the Netherlands.
    Ukraine just increased the diplomatic leverage of the EU over a Russian vassal while reducing Russian income. 
    In any other situation we would call this a master stroke of a political maneuver. But because we are p---yfooting around a genocidal dictatorship, we focus on the negatives.
  19. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please heed Steve's advice re the election and new candidate. People are posting opinions not fact and a week is a long time in politics. I would love to wade into the BS comments but I will restrain...
    We have plenty of weeks to go.
    So enough unless it relates directly to Ukraine...
    😉
  20. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please heed Steve's advice re the election and new candidate. People are posting opinions not fact and a week is a long time in politics. I would love to wade into the BS comments but I will restrain...
    We have plenty of weeks to go.
    So enough unless it relates directly to Ukraine...
    😉
  21. Like
    Holien got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please heed Steve's advice re the election and new candidate. People are posting opinions not fact and a week is a long time in politics. I would love to wade into the BS comments but I will restrain...
    We have plenty of weeks to go.
    So enough unless it relates directly to Ukraine...
    😉
  22. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Anthony P. in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    See the response from @billbindc
    It is no longer the Republican party but a cult and the folk that will be in power can not be compared in ANY way with the first term of Trump...
  23. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Eddy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can we please heed Steve's advice re the election and new candidate. People are posting opinions not fact and a week is a long time in politics. I would love to wade into the BS comments but I will restrain...
    We have plenty of weeks to go.
    So enough unless it relates directly to Ukraine...
    😉
  24. Like
    Holien got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    See the response from @billbindc
    It is no longer the Republican party but a cult and the folk that will be in power can not be compared in ANY way with the first term of Trump...
  25. Like
    Holien got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    See the response from @billbindc
    It is no longer the Republican party but a cult and the folk that will be in power can not be compared in ANY way with the first term of Trump...
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