acrashb

No, not really - all he was/is asking for is some proper oversight into how this money is going to be spent. Without going off into tangents, the U.S. has been spending a lot of money recently on weapons for Ukraine (while ignoring some other critical, domestic issues), so it's only rational that someone with some sense stood up and said, hold on, where exactly is this money going?

I get the impression that river crossing had been preceded by someone with shoulder boards and a very red face pound the desk angrily and yelling that he doesn't want excuses, he wants it done NOW!

Its on the to-do list.  Right after "combined arms" and "logistics", and slightly in front of "do not try the same water crossing more than three times [baby steps]"

When this war is over Ukrainians will remember this battle like Americans remember the Alamo or Greeks remember the battle of Thermopylae.

https://news.sky.com/story/as-boris-johnson-heads-to-finland-what-will-it-mean-if-the-finns-join-nato-12610045
Finland's prime minister and president have said the historically neutral country, which fought the Soviets in WWII and lost, must seek membership of the defensive pact. 
 
Let me be the first to congratulate Vlad Putin on rescuing NATO from the dustbin of history.  Actions, meet consequences.  I expect Sweden to follow soon.

If they keep trying, eventually they’ll just be able to drive across on the wrecks.

Wait, he's supposed to find Buckaroo Banzai not John Whorfin! [/🤓]

 

Steve, I think you are being sarcastic so prolly ignore what I'm about to say...
RANT BEGINS:
Otherwise... this is pure history revisionism by WOKE elements of our society.  We may not like this history (whether we are leftwing or rightwing) but by your reasoning we should knock down/deface practically every monument erected over our civilization's history.  Why, because practically every person who has lived until very recently has been some sort of racist.  (and many still alive are some sort of racist, just misinformed/unenlightened, but may still be good people).  You can't go around defacing historical sites because you disagree with their politics.  That's happened throughout history and is disgusting.  We would have no history if you burned every temple or book, knocked down every statue because you don't agree with some segment of that belief.  And as for the USA (or any country) naming a ship or a base after a US historical figure, it can't.  Why? Because by your reasoning, none of them are perfect by today's standards.
:RANT ENDS
This thread is really not the place to discuss this anyway.  If you disagree with me Steve, I would be glad to discuss this using your PM system.  Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are trying to say.

Well to be frank, your dilemma between "radicals" is because the Russian public did nothing as all opposition that was otherwise was suppressed and eventually choked out.  There was a time when public action could have preserved your ability to chose, but as you say, that time has passed.  This means you are at more difficult choices but anything right now is better than nothing.
As to the "golden bridge to retreat", hey man, that is on you guys and it can be filed under "Things to Consider Before Invading Another Nation for Zero Reasons".  I did not see Russia moving to lend a hand with our extraction from Afghanistan either.  This is big-boy pants time, you break it you buy it and clean up your own messes. 
I have no doubt the Russian people don't know what we know...that is because the same jerks that pulled you into this mess control your media - which in hindsight was another bad idea and we in the west should take note.
As to how Russia is losing, we have literally written pages on this.  Russia is losing this war by just about every metric I can think of to be honest - Tactically thru Strategic.  The biggest proof of this is that gong show up at Kyiv, one does not burn 20-30% of ones ready field force in a "feint", then recruit every three-legged one eyed dog and merc you can find (seriously, Ethiopians?!), stuff them together with broken units in three weeks and send them out for another doomed offensive in the Donbas.  These are not the signs of "minor setbacks". 
My bet is the Russian political level is going to move the strategic goalposts again.  I suspect they will declare victory and liberation, followed by "free and fair elections" because the Crimea playbook.  And then dig in and cry crocodile tears as the UA with western help attacks them, justifying whatever crazy comes next.  This is assuming that the whole Russian Army doesn't simply collapse under its own weight in a couple weeks.  Then there will be a very loud popping sound when those sanctions finally break the Russian economy.
 

I can't remember what book it was in now, but something about the Cold War the Able Archer exercise where the world came close to becoming ash. Caspar Weinberger and other defense officials under Reagan were astounded to learn that the Soviets were extremely apprehensive of the NATO war-games, which simulated a heightened nuclear alert as well. The Soviets were 99% positive that Able Archer was the prelude to an invasion of the Warsaw Pact by NATO. Soviet reasoning was that it was EXACTLY what the USSR would do and then roll right into West Germany from the exercises. 
The US officials were dumbfounded to find this out, because they could not understand how the USSR would believe that. The reason: NATO would NEVER attack the Soviet Union, and they didn't understand how they could think that NATO would. They had NO idea of the Soviet mentality about this.
Blinders.
NATO practiced DEFENDING Western Europe from Soviet invasion. We never practiced an invasion of the Warsaw Pact, only local defensive counterattacks.
NATO will not attack Russia. It seem @DMS is under the same mis-apprehension that the Soviets were 34 years ago.
Dave

No, Russia is being judged by it actions, not what it says.  We have a saying in the west.  "Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck.... therefore it is a duck."   The acts of Russia in Bucha, Maruipol, all over Ukraine are in full display for the world to see.  Ergo, if Russia troops acts like uncouth, uncivilized barbarians, we are within our rights to call them out for it.

That is a really important point.  In many ways China in 2022, looks a lot like late 19th century US.  Its expansion is largely economic, not military or colonial.  China has made a lot if underhanded deals, but they have not overtly invaded anyone as far as I know since those border clashes with Vietnam back in 79; hell, our track record in the West is worse than that.
Everyone in the mainstream seems worried that China will take this as an opportunity to invade Taiwan; however, I think it will be far more subtle and smart than an open invasion (please god, we have had enough).
And another really good point.  China is not a rogue power, like Russia.  It is playing by a set of rules that it wants to master and hold the pen on the re-write so it can negotiate from strength for the next hundred.  This means negotiation both externally and internally, this is how the "grown ups" have to play the game.
My honest bet is that China will continue to attack the Black Elephant in the room, the internal divisions within western democracies, the US in particular.  If we cannot get over ourselves, I think we are in serious trouble in 20 years.    

It is all good.  If I ever find the time, I need to write up a piece on the phenomenon of this thread itself.  We have a bunch of people who are largely only connected via a small wargame, but who are also a collection of expertise in a lot of different fields.  We coalesced here and have produced assessment and analysis that frankly compares to the paid stuff out there in the world.  We even became self-regulating, without - I hazard - becoming too much of an echo chamber.
And all this time no one has really posted their bona-fides.  I mean a few were already known going in, but a lot of this has really just been the quality of discussion and opinion.  Not sure what to call this "emergent analysis", "organic" but it has been really fascinating to watch and participate in.

Spare a microscopic bit of sympathy for every corporal, and and quartermaster in the Chinese army. Can you imagine the inspections and audits Xi has ordered to be sure how much of a military he ACTUALLY has.

Welcome to page 666 of the discussion, thus making this the thread of the beast.

Not sure anything we are discussing here meets the "nationalistic" definition as no one nation is being represented, this is more a discussion on "what happens next" on a global scale.
It seems like every time I hear, or get into a discussion on China and the power contest with the current global order the usual suspects come out.  We get the ardent anti-Chinese paranoia ("they are in my plumbing") and what you pose here, "The Glass Dragon", the only thing missing is poking holes in property bubbles and demographics.
I do want to pull on one thread here that often comes out of the "Glass Dragon" sphere, I highlighted it in your post.  That has been the "get in line" strategy we have been basically relying upon for over 30 years.  The hope that China would see the error of its ways as we demonstrate the benefits of the current global order, while we try to contain its rapid expansion.  It is basically a version of the Cold War strategy, and it has not worked, nor is it likely to in my opinion.  And most of the 5EYEs Security and Defence strategies agree with me, so there is that. 
Finally, I am not sure what the definition of a "true superpower" is, but this gets thrown around a lot as well.  Are we talking the ability to leverage influence on a global scale?  Is it comparative to the US?  Is it marshalling collective will?  These terms get thrown out in what looks more like an attempt to make ourselves feel better than really looking at our environment (i.e. "well we are still a superpower and they aren't...oh look the Friends Reunion is on")
I think we are past "normalization hope" here, as this current war looks and feels like the opening of a new phase of this thing. 
I was at a defence conference way back in 2015 and it was largely boring old stuff one expects hear at these things.  There was a lot of focus on Russia because of the Crimea but it was the usual "we will win through teamwork and capitalism" type stuff.  Then this old guy was on a panel that made the whole room sit up and take notice.  He was in charge of covert action in Afghanistan back in the 80s, which was pretty impressive, but his points on Russia resonate to this day.  His position was that the future global competition, as it relates to Russia, was which sphere that nation was driven or pulled into.  We, the west, needed to pull Russia towards Europe, and that should be easy as gravity of history and culture was on our side.  If Russia were to be driven into the Eastern sphere 1) shame on us for letting it happen and 2) that would be a very bad thing.
Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me.  I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid. 

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy.  I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order.  If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world.  Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century.
I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here.  Ukraine is one, Russia is the other.  And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes.  China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of.  It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner.
This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.
As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself.  Welcome to the Complicated War 1.
  

Yes, I think we're both on the same page that the Russians are
1. trying to 'secure' a new frontier along the Seviersky Donets and southern Dnipr and then
2. make enough crazy nuke noises that Western liberals poop their pants and pressure UKR to accept a cease fire and 'referendum'.
Here's Ed Lutttwak (no liberal!), calling for 'plebiscites':
https://unherd.com/2022/04/how-the-ukraine-war-must-end/
 
...And fine, all that certainly doesn't suit our Ukrainian friends here at all, but while sending you lots of lethal stuff is one thing, I must tell you there is very little stomach in the West for joining you in the 'our survival is on the line' category. Very few of my acquaintances pay the war much mind even though they know who the 'good guys' are.
So the pressure to accept a cease fire and 'end this' (i.e. get it out of the news and get back to doomscrolling about the slow rot of our various welfare states) will be substantial.
Also, a lot of the world (Asia, MEA) sees Ukraine as a US proxy, a stick the Empire is using to beat Russia. They would firmly back a cease fire, having no interest in a prostrate Russia.
This is why I continue to believe that time is NOT on Ukraine's side strategically, the way others here believe, and that a strong, early counteroffensive toward the Azov to retake the land bridge and place half the Russian invaders en prise is imperative, in spite of the military risks.
Izyum area is not a dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, but that long Kherson-Zaporizhe-Donetsk front *definitely* is. You simply cannot leave that in place, but you can't retake it without firm Western backing, intel, etc.
And the tide of that backing will ebb astoundingly fast once the Russians call for 'cease fire and negotiations'.  Nobody trusts them, fine, but believe me, the West will always go for the 'negotiated' way out and let the Ukrainians live with the consequences.  Ask the Koreans.
One man's opinion, and I guess time will tell.

Why is everyone assuming this was a tube-fired mission? Based on the timing and pattern, I maintain it's a Grad/MLRS style hit.
Of course...Steve already said he thinks I'm wrong.
Artillery forensics is not my area of expertise. In fact, I fear I may know more about the Chinese housing bubble than I know about sheaf procedures.

Here's one I don't think we've seen yet.  I don't know if this is a training issue or just a "what the hell were they thinking" issue. 
 
 

I wouldn't put much stock in Medvedev. He's been trying to stay relevant by out blithering the blithering idiots on Russian state tv, his constituency was always solely Putin and the source of his power, such as it was, was always from servicing that constituency. He's a cipher, not an operator. If we all make it to a post-Putin world, I'm betting on a return of one of the semi-disgraced. Vladislav Surkov or Sergei Ivanov were smarter guys who ran afoul of the boss...probably simply because they both plausibly looked like they could take over someday. 
 
https://www.rferl.org/a/medvedev-liberal-to-bellicose/31818941.html#:~:text=Medvedev%2C who owes his political,sense in negotiating with them.

The key thing to note is that Gerasimov felt like he needed to be there in the first place. Equivalent to Mike Mullen coming down to personally supervise retaking Fallujah. 

A lot has already been said, but if this was some kind of HQ, and set up like you SHOULD set up an HQ, you might be using the building for "office space", however, all the vehicles would be parked and camouflaged in the woods surrounding, and if there are radios in the building, the antennas SHOULD be scattered about in cover somewhere that is not the building. Also, for a major HQ of some kind, it should be surrounded by some sort of AA capability, even if that's just several crews of MANPADS, also in the woods. 
So that distribution looks "normal".  They hit the building dead on, whether by precision or good data. Pretty good chance they can generate an exact GPS or grid coordinate for a building like that. If not precision a precision round then it would be the number 3 gun firing at that coordinate. #3 is the center of the battery and is SUPPOSED to be your best gun crew. That's the gun you register with, and should have the most proficient crew and gun chief. At least that's how we do it (we being US and what I know of Cdn and UK - I think all NATO is pretty standard that way) And in a normal unadjusted sheaf, with no corrections applied, #3 would land center of the pattern. Unadjusted, the pattern should mimic the distribution of the firing battery guns on the ground (say they are set up at the front of a treeline somewhere, which is an irregular shape). When you have spare time, you figure out Terrain Gun Position Corrections. That's the deviation from a straight, regularly spaced line, to what you have on the ground. Apply those to each gun individually, and then your standard sheaf is a regular spaced even line (within CEP). From THOSE, you can then apply other corrections for different shapes - circular, converging, etc. BUT, if your target is significantly off your center line of fire, then those TGPCs become less accurate and your sheaf different, not the perfect line.
Looks to me like they wanted to cover the likely area of where the antennas, support vehicles, etc could be stashed and not just the building.
Dave

after the FU Russian warship stamps I want one of these!
Ukrainian makes keychains from downed Russian jet | Watch (msn.com)

Since day one of the invasion if not before, this forum has given me a far better view of what's going on, thanks to everyone involved ❤️.