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acrashb

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  1. Like
    acrashb reacted to Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised).
    I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period.
    But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane???
    Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existential war???
    How ignorant and naive can you be?
  2. Like
    acrashb reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It takes a younger generation indignant at the status quo with little materially to lose and little appreciation for the long term consequences to push for change. It takes the older generation to keep things in perspective that in fact change is a constant and progress even if slow does occur. Having been on both ends of that experience, I prefer being on the older end.  😎
  3. Like
    acrashb got a reaction from Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Fortuneately - because otherwise we would be building our replacements - Moore's law cannot continue indefinitely and has already been slowing for about ten years.
    Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore | Computerworld (archive.org)
    http://web.archive.org/web/20200613232824/https://www.computerworld.com/article/3554889/moore-s-law-is-dead-says-gordon-moore.html
     
  4. Like
    acrashb reacted to strac_sap in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The idea of dropping munitions from planes to clear minefields was always a nonstarter in the past, for a number of reasons. As a new combat engineer private in the US army I remember watching a video (VHS I think) of Iraqi positions before deploying and the DoD wanted recommendations on how to breach them. Afterward I told the lieutenant we should just do a B-52 strike to clear a path. He didn't respond. The airstrikes were always too inaccurate and the ground could be impassible to vehicles.
    There are two different ideas here that should be clarified: breaching a minefield and clearing a minefield. Frankly both are scary.
    The explosives in mines is very stable, and the fuse is the key to setting it off. (when fatigued and stupid we would toss explosives around in really unsafe ways, but here I still am) So to actually clear a mine explosive needs to be placed directly on/next to it or it needs to be physically removed. Both of these require the mine to have been discovered by the persons doing the clearing. And then you have to be in the minefield doing stuff like, pop and drops, ring mains and line mains.
    To breach the minefield the mines simply need to be moved out of the way. This is where MICLICs and bangalore torpedoes come in, vehicles with plows, and maybe airstrikes if they can be precise and not destroy the ground rendering movement impossible. They are expected to blow the mines out of the way, and if they detonate them that's good. But not expected. So napalm could work if it was hot enough to ignite the fuses. Otherwise it would be very poor as it would not push the mines out of the way.
    I appreciate these discussions about the more modern state of mines and mine clearing, especially drones. My heart breaks to see the density of the minefields that are being laid. This will takes many years to clear and the cost to the locals will likely be extraordinary. Perhaps more and better automated mine clearing is the key, I feel like we have neglected this like many things as we thought these wars were a thing of the past.
  5. Like
    acrashb reacted to kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hopefully does not include Chernobyl 2.0.
    Hobbyists can build a lot of this stuff too. Cat’s out of the bag with so much of the tooling being open sourced. South Park guys recently raised a bunch of money to focus on deepfakes, which will be epic. Brave new entertaining world!
    And of course the EU will regulate it or complain a lot and then be surprised in a decade when this new market is all US/Eastern Europe/China as usual.
  6. Like
    acrashb reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mmm ... it's kind of like the difference between dumb artillery rounds and PGM: fire a million rounds and get the Somme vs a few rounds that actually hit the problem you want to just go away.
    A gazillion dumb mines will just sit there waiting for someone to maybe hopefully fumble into it. A single Precision Guided Mine will go out hunting ...
  7. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You can cut the sexual tension with a knife….
  8. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
    Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
    Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
    Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
    Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
    Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.
  9. Like
    acrashb reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wagner aren't really mercenaries, though. They're, or at least they were, a PMC that has a single dominant client: the Russian Government. You couldn't pay them to fight against Russians any more than you could pay Blackwater to fight against US troops.
    I have a feeling that Prig is, at heart, a True Believer in the sanctity and superiority of the Rodina, and even now you won't get him or his to fight against their countrymen for another employer.
  10. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well what a weird day.  I agree and am highly skeptical as well.  Prig is a dead man if Putin remains in power.  No way Putin can retain an iron authoritarian grip after this demonstration if Prig and Wagner are still alive and active.  Unless this entire thing was a big clown show, which also makes no sense as the reputation damage alone is devastating.  Parking Wagner anywhere near Ukraine is a non-starter for Putin, hell anywhere near Russia is a bad idea.
    Something else is going on here.
  11. Like
    acrashb reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Putin: "I don't need ammo, I need a ride"
  12. Like
    acrashb reacted to buena in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    remember the maxim: don't interrupt the enemy when it's making a mistake
  13. Like
    acrashb reacted to kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Special Mutiny Operation
  14. Upvote
    acrashb got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I live less than ten minutes from there.  The plutonium would explain the night-sky glow coming from the north
  15. Like
    acrashb reacted to Jr Buck Private in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I agree.   A 50km convoy could be just two vehicles if they get the spacing right. 
  16. Like
    acrashb reacted to Der Zeitgeist in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And so it begins.
     
  17. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not quite ready to call that.  However, why Russia abandoned its successes in GZ/Hybrid warfare and decided to "go loud" baffles me to this day. 
    I mean lets say in an alt universe they pulled it all off.  Ukraine falls, they occupy the country...how does this make things better?  Finland and Sweden still running to NATO.  NATO doubling down on Baltics (FFS, Putin managed to get Canadian tanks back in Europe...under a freakin Liberal government no less!) and securing heavy defence spending.  We likely would have gotten all in on "support to Ukrainian resistance" as an insurgency from hell with safe havens all over the place except Belarus went to town.
    I am sure from inside the dark, warm and smelly place within the Kremlin there was a vision of victory here but this one has to go down as one of the worst strategic mis-steps of the last 100 years.  Actually when you look at those 100 years, quite a crappy batting average by Russia overall wrt strategic decisions.
  18. Like
    acrashb reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sure sure. Yup...
  19. Like
    acrashb reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I do. There should be no shenanigans. Send Miley and Austin III as envoys to Putin and show him our Chinese menu of hurt. And the fortune cookies all have losing lottery numbers. Do it now, or there will nothing left in Ukraine to fight for other than fertile dirt. 
  20. Like
    acrashb reacted to kevinkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Or maybe he is making clear you guys go make pinatas out of the paper we print. Then let the candy fall to the floor for "our children" to enjoy. There a different arithmetic in Washington. Try applying that grammar schooling to a citizen's bills and checking accounts.   
  21. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would think Congress might care when the budgets they approve starts living their own life by tens of billions 💸
  22. Like
    acrashb reacted to Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As a Wargamer, one of the greatest joy we have is using various tools (even if they are amateur and used for entertainment purposes) to check if our crazy ideas are feasible. Here, we have a set of tools called CMO. I have created a few scenarios in the editor. Overall, I agree with your perspective that using an F-16 fighter jet to attack a low-flying Ka-52 helicopter within Russian-controlled territory is not an efficient approach.
     
    In the scenario, I assumed that Ukraine is using the F-16A MLU donated by the Netherlands, while the Russian military has a Ka-52 helicopter hovering at a low altitude 10 kilometers behind their first defensive line. The F-16's radar can generally detect the Ka-52 at a range of 16nm. If the F-16 is at high altitude, there is only one opportunity for an attack because the Ka-52 will quickly enter the radar's blind zone. If the F-16 decides to dive into low altitude or initiates the attack from low altitude, it must consider the threat from short-range air defenses. However, considering the threat posed by the Russian S-300 system, a low-level penetration might be a more viable option.
     
    Subsequently, I added more elements to the scenario, including A-50 and a full suite of short-range and long-range SAM systems for the Russian. The Ukrainian F-16 takes off near Vinnytsia, flies at high altitude over Zaporizhzhia, transitions to low altitude, and turns southeast towards Orikhiv. This brings an additional issue: after flying over 200 nm, the low-flying F-16 only has around 20 minutes of fuel remaining before Bingo Fuel, meaning it can only perform one attack before disengaging.
     
    Similar to before, the F-16's radar detects the Ka-52 at 16 nm, but both aircraft are in low altitude, significantly reducing the effective range of the AIM-120B missile due to air resistance (and yes, max range =/= effective range). The F-16 must close in to approximately 7 nm for the Ka-52 to be within the missile's Dynamic Launch Zone (DLZ). However, before reaching this distance, the F-16 pilot receives multiple SAM radar warning alerts.
     
    In summary, after conducting a single AMRAAM attack, the F-16 must turn and disengage. The success rate is not high, with a small probability of the F-16 being shot down by SAMs, and the chance of the AIM-120B hitting the Ka-52 at the extreme edge of its effective range is also low. According to the PoH calculation formula in CMO, this probability is only 29%.
     
    Please note that this simulation only considers the Russian ground-based SAM systems, and if a group of Su-35s are added to provide CAP, the F-16's chances of a successful attack would be extremely low.
     
    The conclusion drawn from this simulation is that the Ukrainian F-16 should focus on its main tasks, such as gaining air superiority and conducting SEAD, plus attacking Russian airfields and ground support. The mission of hunting down the airborne Ka-52 within Russian-controlled territory should be assigned to other weapons and equipment.
  23. Like
    acrashb reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For what is is worth, as a cinema fan I do think that Stone is a gifted director and writer. Nothing to do with my politics but I enjoyed watching Platoon, Alexander and Scarface. I do however think that Stone's pro-Putin stance is dumb. Guess that is what people mean when they speak about,separating art from the artist.
  24. Like
    acrashb reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    From me. I am making them based on content inside of the boxes. Basically I read post, I make map, mark settlements, mark actions (directions of attacks) then put text boxes with descriptions at close to location as possible. 
  25. Like
    acrashb reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Organisations scale for the scale they are. The Belgian army's training establishment (to take a completely random example), is scaled to the needs of the Belgian army which currently is a maneuver brigade plus various 'non-divisional' elements. Each year the Belgian army can train its new recruits, plus provide promotion and corps-courses for some mech and mot inf, some light inf, some gunners, some sappers, etc. What they can't do is suddenly scale up to training two brigades (ie, 6,000 soldiers) concurrently. They can help, they can train some of them - while maintaining their own national defence outputs. And they certainly can't provide specialist training; the Belgians, even with the best will in the world and completely ignoring their own national defence outputs, could not provide training for Patriot or Ceasar, or PzH2000, or Challenger, or Bradley, or whatever, let alone some really esoteric stuff like HOWTO corps-level operations. And the same is true of every other country: everyone lacks the capacity and knowledge to train the Ukrainians on all the things they need to learn. Including the US. But the Belgians, like everyone else, does have some spare capacity that can be gifted to the Ukrainians, especially if they pay off some domestic capability over the short term. Pooling together there is enough overall capacity to train 6,000 Ukrainians concurrently - that is no mean feat.
    You're right though, in a way: it would be better if all the training could be done in one place by one training organisation (although I'll also note that even the US has training facilities for it's own use spread right across CONUS and across the world). But that's like saying it would be better if we had a cure for cancer or everyone had an EV. It's true, but not remotely realistic, and pining for that unreality doesn't advance the discussion in any useful direction.
    tl;dr: Perfect is the enemy of good.
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