Elmar Bijlsma

A question on the dragon's teeth we've been seeing.
If they really want to adopt that along the front, what does that look like, logistically? Where are they getting them in the first place? And then they still need to get the hefty buggers trucked around to where they are needed. That is a big task for a logistical system not exactly wow-ing anyone.
It seems an awful lot of trouble to go to to get a low rent Maginot Line that the Russians cannot adequately man and that the Ukrainian artillery can systematically dismantle the strong-points of whenever they please. And that is assuming the Ukrainians won't simply drive through the "Ardennes".
 

I agree. Also, the truck bomb fits well into their general nazi/terrorist narrative, because truck bombs are used by terrorists, so people who use them must also be terrorists.

I hope you remember this 52 year old housewife? There was an article about her in the Times at the very beginning of the war.

Hi, all.  This is my first post on any forum thread for many years but I'd like to say I have been reading this one avidly since the start of the war and I very much appreciate the balance you have struck between as-it-happens commentary, critical analysis and (often extremely well) educated opinion.  I agree with those before me who've noted that there doesn't seem to be a comparable resource anywhere else online.
While I'm loathe to clutter the thread with idle speculation (I admit I occasionally find myself having to skim-read a few pages whenever someone revives the 'nuclear question') I thought this might be as good a place as any to ask a question that's been niggling away at me for a few weeks now.  Apologies in advance since I'm pretty sure I'm going to find myself tumbling down the reverse slope of Mount Stupid as a result of this post...  Still, here goes:
Is there a chance that Putin is now trying to get NATO into this war?
If Russia can probably-but-definitely-not blow up some gas lines; sabotage the odd power-supply cable to a NATO member; unleash a low-level cyber attack on a few airports and continually attack Ukrainian civilian targets can they goad NATO into an overt conventional confrontation that gives Putin the excuse he needs to withdraw from Ukraine?  Can he then claim that Russia was forced to invade Ukraine by insidious NATO, who then sprang the trap, stabbing Russia's mighty armed forces in the back?  Maybe that allows Russians to swerve the cognitive dissonance caused by a defeat to Ukraine and instead spit at the treachery employed by the Anglo-Saxon-dominated West to subdue mighty Russia?  Most importantly, maybe all that keeps Putin in power?
It has to be sold as purely NATO's plan to get involved, so provocations have to be relatively subtle and ideally plausibly-deniable.  It will lead to Russia's total military defeat but that's basically already the case, if not now then imminently so. 
I also think it could be well worth NATO refusing to grant Putin such an excuse, even if it means this war lasting longer than otherwise necessary (I hate myself for writing it, don't worry).  Our goal is to drive a long-term cultural change in Russia and for that reason we have to deny them the ability to cry foul and to resolve to try again or even to get 'revenge' in future.  In my opinion it was the denial of such plausible counter-narratives to 1940s Germany and Japan which carried a lot of weight in the post-war period.  The aggressors have to think, nay know that they tried violence, they threw everything at it and, in a square fight, they failed.
I have half a dozen other directions from which to come at this and I really don't like the way it potentially 'justifies' NATO inaction but this post is already long enough and I'm interested in what you good people think.

Worth noting that a good chunk of the vehicles were towing others.
One more sign that the Russian army is largely dysfunctional.

Worth noting that a good chunk of the vehicles were towing others.
One more sign that the Russian army is largely dysfunctional.

Worth noting that a good chunk of the vehicles were towing others.
One more sign that the Russian army is largely dysfunctional.

Guys were in a proper place in a proper time. 
Kalibr, for example, has march speed 0,8M (and 2-2.5M at the target), so it can be intercepted with some probabbility with MANPAD. 
 

Hi, 
Another guy from Poland, have on forum for years, usually only Reading, been following the thread since around March, usually few pages behind. 
Best place to get current info, reasonable opinions, experts on details etc. 
Helped me calm down in stressful beginning of this war and pass hope to some friends. 
First time I managed to find something of interest, some of you may have seen it but I think it was not posted. 
 
The second video shows explosion in slow motion.
 

Well said! Liver capacity is important to ration as well.

I dont know what kind of explosive that is (looks like VOG-17) but they appear to far outperform whatever my Pixeltruppen are using in CMBS
 

Politically the fall of Kherson would indeed make a very pointed reply to the annexation. It would also dramatically undermine Putin, but whether that is good or bad is up for debate, as it has been here.
Sure, taking the pocket would be a good thing, all in all. But is it the best thing?

ok i'll be the first🤣

Isnt it simply about safety? ie being as far away as possible from mines and being able to rapidly get away from the vehicel if it becomes a target or is actually hit.
The soviet garbage is very vulnerable to mines, has useless armor and is not designed for fast, safe egress (i.e if hit).
You get a light vehicle thats easily produced, modified and maintained, but at a cost of safety & protection. 
As always: Good, Fast or Cheap, pick two. Or - Survivable, Maintainable, Buildable.
USSR couldnt build a maintainable and properly survivable APC/IFV, not at the quantity they needed. So they choose having a lot of vehicles for a reasonable price, at the cost of crew/infantry survivability. Soldiers arent stupid, no one rides on the outside of a military vehicle for comfort. Hell, inside often aint great either!

I think that is actually from Dilbert
 
Elbonia | Dilbert Wiki | Fandom
Elbonia is an impoverished Eastern European country in the Dilbert universe. In the comic strip, and originally in the TV show, its major commerce was mud. There are also mentions of a currency called the Eye-Crud. Path-E-Tech Management often outsources work there, and has a factory for their subsidiary ElboCo. 

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/01/russiandraft
One newly mobilized Russian shares his experience, he is not impressed with the amount of training or the equipment issued.

I guess I hope we never find out...
At some stage you just have to call their bluff because if it works this time they will use it again.
Do you have a better proposal on a measure to take when (if) Russia uses a Nuke in Ukraine?
Interested to hear what you would do?
 
 

Is it even militarily wise to roll up Cherson pocket right now? I mean, it is complete arse for the Russians to supply. It seems worth it to let the Russians "enjoy" their self inflicted wound some more. Squeeze it to a more manageable area to give arty more options but otherwise I would leave it in place.
I still fancy Melitopol as an axis of advance worth trying. Perhaps too obvious a route and too strongly held, but surely the past few weeks the area has been thinned of defenders some? Perhaps it is too late now, with the autumn mud upon us.
TBH, I was a little surprised by the Lyman operation. I didn't think it would improve the strategic outlook all that much. Initially, it definitely was, with the local defences in disarray. But the initial progress seemed slow and grinding that I really doubted it was going to go anywhere worthwhile.
But second guessing the Ukrainian General Staff really isn't the smart thing to do, I realize.
 

Is it even militarily wise to roll up Cherson pocket right now? I mean, it is complete arse for the Russians to supply. It seems worth it to let the Russians "enjoy" their self inflicted wound some more. Squeeze it to a more manageable area to give arty more options but otherwise I would leave it in place.
I still fancy Melitopol as an axis of advance worth trying. Perhaps too obvious a route and too strongly held, but surely the past few weeks the area has been thinned of defenders some? Perhaps it is too late now, with the autumn mud upon us.
TBH, I was a little surprised by the Lyman operation. I didn't think it would improve the strategic outlook all that much. Initially, it definitely was, with the local defences in disarray. But the initial progress seemed slow and grinding that I really doubted it was going to go anywhere worthwhile.
But second guessing the Ukrainian General Staff really isn't the smart thing to do, I realize.
 

Note that the benefits of removing Kherson Kessel (aka Putler's Pocket) would greatly increase UKR capability to attack on Melitopol front or elsewhere.  While RU loses all the units on Kherson front, UKR has all its units to redeploy.  If RU is given time to remove units from Kherson then both sides would get shortened front w ~same # of men, though RU would have lost a lot of kit & supplies.  Advantage to removing kessel is disproportionately in favor to UKR if they can act soon.
Picture the situation post-Kherson.  UKR will be able to very thinly defend right bank since there no way RU could mount a an offensive there even after a successful river crossing.  But RU will still need to fear a UKR river crossing and so would need to keep up more of a defense along that line.  If RU has long stretches of left bank left undefended, UKR might sneak forces into the area and cross to form a significant and threatening beachhead.  Given Putler's obsession w Crimea he can't afford to have UKR on left bank where it could threaten an advance toward Crimea.

Ukraine seems to want to make a rather emphatic point about the annexation. Specifically that they absolutely couldn't care less. Or could be 100% based on the alignment of military factors, but I m guessing the the annexation had a lLittle  weight on the timing. It doesn't hurt that the Russian forces in the northern Donbas are all but folding. So pushing in Kherson now creates the maximum amount of command stress and bad choices. Putin may be willing to give away Luhansk, but I am fairly sure he didn't want to give it away by Thanksgiving.

It's the other way around, BTR in the bottom left seems to be doing all the shooting.

Misplaced from the stock that never existed, fulfilled by the shell company with no employees (but 17 directors), parking lot for a factory and an empty head office, after it won a competition against six  identical other companies (who all share the same address) and judged by the brother of one of the Directors who is a clerk at the MoD. 
 

Is it me, or does a lot of the sound in the video of our favourite TikTok warriors sound like it was lifted from Call of Duty or somesuch?
No way was that a phone or Go Pro picking up actual combat sounds.

Is it me, or does a lot of the sound in the video of our favourite TikTok warriors sound like it was lifted from Call of Duty or somesuch?
No way was that a phone or Go Pro picking up actual combat sounds.