John Kettler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Per thoroughly proven not-for-attribution military-intelligence sources, Poland has moved "about a division" into western Ukraine via the Poland-Ukraine border. Word is the Poles are establishing defensive positions. Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wow. Were they invited or is this unilateral? Is any other European countries going on alert or starting mobilization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 BlackMoria, No idea, and neither do my contacts. Speculation is that the Poles are doing the good neighbor thing. There is a high ratio of APCs/IFVs to tanks. Tanks are Leopard 2A4s. Therefore, we're looking at some version of the 10th Armored Cavalry Brigade (Poland), which is part of the 11th Armored Cavalry Division. Per this (use translation software), the 10th is Poland's top armored formation. It has 116 Leo 2A4s. http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_Brygada_Kawalerii_Pancernej_(III_RP) In turn, this means the Poles moved the 11th clear across the country from the the west to the east. See map at unit breakdown here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/11th_Armoured_Cavalry_Division The full OOB for the 11th Armored Cavalry Division is here. As you can see see, there simply isn't enough infantry in the 11th to meet what was reported as a 4:1 or 5:1 ratio of APCs/IFVs to tanks. Unsure what to make of that. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Poland_Land_Forces.png Additional info is that APCs/IFVs are tracked, and the 10th's AFVs are BWP-1 (Polish BMP-1). That said, there is an enormous list of BWP-1 versions, and I have no idea as to the split. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMP-1_variants Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wow. Were they invited or is this unilateral? Is any other European countries going on alert or starting mobilization? Just FYI, John's contacts are imaginary, but provide great material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Color me confused. Is the info about the Poles in the Ukraine fact or bs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 it is fiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 BlackMoria, Fact and internally consistent as explained to akd below. akd, Let's put it this way. My contacts are cleared way above President Obama. There are 23 levels of clearance above his. Mine operate in such rarefied realms. If you doubt this, go read my SEAL Team 6 coverage, my black program material, the piece on why Kim Jong-un blinked. The work speaks for itself. Pay attention to what I'm saying here or don't, but understand this: I've spent almost my entire life studying military history, weapon technology, intelligence and espionage. I spent over 11 years immersed in cutting edge weapon technology both tactical and strategic, and in some cases, my broad knowledge base far exceeds that of my more narrowly focused contacts. In this instance, I clearly know more about Polish AFVs than my contacts, which allows me to test the information based on my own research, and it tracks. The Poles have no other tank that fits the perplexed description I got of the huge turret observed, since all the other Polish tank models have round turrets, being T-72 type tanks. Further, I was informed the APCs/IFVs observed were apparently tracked. Guess what? Most of Poland's APCs/IFVs are like our LAV-25s here, but more heavily armed with a 30mm Bushmaster autocannon (LAV-25 and Bradley both have 25mm versions). And which unit has the BWP-1s? That would be the 10th Armored Cavalry Brigade (Poland) and I produced the unit breakdown and supporting analysis to prove it. Do I make mistakes; occasionally really screw up? Yes, I do. Do I have high confidence in what I'm telling you here based not merely on my top-notch sources, but also my own cross checks of an array of data, the details of which are sometimes missed by my contacts? Yes, I do. I did the leg work, and were I still in military aerospace, I'd have no compunction about taking this to my boss, the department manager and as far up the food chain as needed. I've dealt with the military and intelligence pros, both as colleagues and as customers for weapon programs at times worth billions. MANPADs to NASP. TOW to beam weapons. GBU-15 to Maverick family to SFW. Phoenix to AMRAAM and beyond. B-1B to Stealth and AC-130U. BTDT and got the T-shirt. In fact, had several. Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apocal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Let's put it this way. My contacts are cleared way above President Obama. There are 23 levels of clearance above his. Mine operate in such rarefied realms. If you doubt this, go read my SEAL Team 6 coverage, my black program material, the piece on why Kim Jong-un blinked. The work speaks for itself. This is entirely consistent with letting you in on compartmentalized information, so you can then immediately turn around and spread the word to people on a internet wargame forum. I am also the last king of Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Apocal, There are some people in the aforementioned community who believe the public has a right to know what's going on. One such was Ellsberg. Another is Snowden. There was also the person who blew the whistle on Iran-Contra. Black programs are significantly funded by narcotrafficking, gunrunning and worse. What are we getting for that money, whose mryriad costs are grievous? I've got some answers. Do you realize that in the last 20 years, in excess of a trillion dollars has gone into black programs? To put that into perspective, the Navy's newest carrier, the GERALD R. FORD, is currently estimated to cost 12.8 billion dollars, plus 4.7 billion in research and development. A significant chunk of that black budget has gone into reconnaissance means which make the SR-71 and KH-11 capabilities look like a pinhole camera by comparison. And you're getting here some of the product from intelligence programs costing untold billions of dollars. The reality is that day in and day out, information is leaked, and for a variety of reasons, some good, some bad. I've personally seen information of great import surfaced in really obscure magazines, where it's noted by perceptive eyes and acted upon. I've seen a seasoned, confident missile program manager turn white and completely change program direction over an alphanumeric string and a date/time group put on his chalkboard with his office door first closed. The so-called FST (Future Soviet Tank) image in Soviet Military Power was roundly criticized as ridiculous and a ploy for selling the M1, but go look at the canceled, practically revolutionary T-95. There was a bitter, bitter fight at the Pentagon and elsewhere over releasing the artist's rendering of the Typhoon submarine in the very first Soviet Military Power. This stuff goes on all the time. Face it, the MSM are either clueless on the Ukraine crisis or are being prevented from really saying what's what. If you know the relevant history, you'd know that the threat of revoking broadcast licenses can bring even CNN to its knees. In England, there's the dread D Notice. And did you see what the Guardian was arm twisted into doing with its carefully guarded Snowden files on a dedicated, no Internet connection computer? Why? If it hadn't, the British government was prepared to go after the Guardian, this on the heels of some 100 meetings with British and U.S. intelligence officials. Your disbelief and derision in no way invalidate the information I've presented, and history will reveal whether I was right. If you're not interested, fine. Others here are, and they don't necessarily post. Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apocal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Your disbelief and derision in no way invalidate the information I've presented, and history will reveal whether I was right. If you're not interested, fine. Others here are, and they don't necessarily post. Regards, John Kettler I am absolutely interested in your conspiracy theories. My interest is not, however, the contents thereof, but rather ensuring that other people don't mistake them for anything resembling truth. If the Poles managed to move a heavy division into Ukraine, then they've also figured out some way of putting that force on the roads without anyone taking their now-ubiquitous smartphone out, taking snaps and vids and having them uploaded to YouTube within a half-hour or taking a recording off their incredibly common (in that region) dash cam and doing the same, to say nothing of the fact that Poland is no longer a closed society, the Cold War is over, the country is open nowadays so if they moved several thousand troops and hundreds of vehicles, someone is going to say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am also the last king of Scotland. Imposter! I am the last King of Scotland! While John is close to the truth, he doesn't know there are actually 32 levels of clearance above Obama. John has not been granted clearance for that info. The truth is there has been movement spotted at the Ukrainian/Polish border. This represents a dangerous escalation threatening the very existence of human kind. Yes, your worst suspicions are true - it has been verified. This vehicle crossed the border in the early hours of the morning. For full details see http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=110856&page=7 Please remain calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Now that's a Polish nuke-tipped warhead if I ever saw one. (Disclaimer.. haven't actually seen one in person even though my dad was Polish.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank Hunter Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 J. Kettler is correct. Polish Army is on the move http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4uubVAZXwU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iMolestCats Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wow, Poland is on the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 J. Kettler is correct. Polish Army is on the move http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4uubVAZXwU J. Kettler is not correct. Polish Army is moving a unit within Poland, not Ukraine. Nor are the units or types involved what he specified. No sources 64 levels above Obama are necessary to guess that Poland might move its own military within its own borders, whether for routine or security purposes. http://natemat.pl/93745,polska-armia-przegrupowuje-sie-na-wypadek-wojny-sztab-generalny-ruchy-wojska-maja-miejsce-ale-to-rutynowe-cwiczenia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Apocal, Your ignorance of nuclear weapon detonation phenomenology and NUDET detection means (I held a CNWDI clearance, have studied nuclear weapons since childhood and am familiar with U.S. NUDET capabilities) aside, your logic is flawed. Why? Social media coming from Russian posters should've, by your lights, revealed the Russian troop and equipment movements, so where are all those thrilled-outraged posts? Therefore, it didn't happen, right? Risible. All, This is a serious thread, and I'd very much appreciate it if some of you didn't hijack it in order to deride me with the kinds of inane posts which have ruined other threads. If you want to indulge in such activities, please start your own thread. Tank Hunter, Thanks for these! The AFVs shown are called Rosomak, Polish for Wolverine. They are the principal IFV in the Polish Army. Any idea what city or town they're rolling through in the vid? akd, I looked for a date on the item you supplied, but I can tell you that the train station name you circled in red, Slupsk, is in the zone in which the 12th Mechanized Division is stationed. Here's a somewhat poor translation of the first paragraph from your link. Fair Use "Polish army regrouped in case of war? General Staff: military movements take place, but it is a routine exercise Since the same Prime Minister Donald Tusk implies that the conflict in Ukraine also poses the threat to the security of our country, the view columns troops on the road triggers panic that we prepare for war. In recent days, regroup in the Polish army, witnesses saw in the area of ​​Gorzow Wielkopolski and Slupsk. In an interview with naTemat spokesman for the General Staff of calms, however, that this routine operation." Let's apply a little logic to this issue, shall we? Poland has been repeatedly invaded by Russia over centuries; Ukraine, also repeatedly invaded by Russia, is presently, at best, occupied in parts by the Russians and with every evidence of worse to come. Poland is quite obviously making significant troop movements in a time of not merely national but international crisis, but hey, it's just exercises. And who says this is a case? A spokesman for the General Staff! I shall now demolish your argument using your own source. In reply to the main article, a reader, Russian Hammer, responded with--wait for it--a vid, posted March 2, 2014, conclusively showing a trainload of BWP-1s and MTLBs. The distinctive side profiles are dispositive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGUPA7rOrgM Tank Hunter produced video and stills showing the Polish Army on the move in Rosomaks, to which you demurred, saying it was in Poland and was the wrong kind of equipment. Now I have shown ironclad proof of a trainload of Polish AFVs consisting of BWP-1s and MTLBs. BWP-1s ARE the right IFVs for the case I'm making. Since my earlier post, and at the cost of considerable eye strain, I've learned that all three Polish Mechanized Divisions have the BWP-1, but only one also has Leopard 2A4s. You may also be interested to know Sczeczin is the HQ for 12th Mechanized Division, with one Brigade at Slupsk! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Poland_Land_Forces.png Why the Poles entered Ukraine I've now received word that Ukraine's interim president, Oleksandr Turchynov, asked for help from Poland's Prime Minister, Donald Tusk. That's why all or most of a Polish Mechanized Division is in western Ukraine, across from Galicia. The Poles are still on the Ukraine side of the border and are in wait and see mode. Ukraine has declared general mobilization. Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yet none of them are in Ukraine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agusto Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Were any Extraterrestrials/Extradimensionals or Vampires involved in covertly transporting the polish division into Ukraine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 akd, If the Polish General Staff is busy reassuring the populace that all the military movement is just exercises, is it even rational to expect official admission that part of the Polish Army is in Ukraine, at the request of Ukraine's interim president? Obviously not! agusto, I specifically and politely asked that people not do precisely what you just did. Moreover, i made said request almost 18 minutes ago, by Forum time. Pray, indulge your humor at my expense elsewhere. Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All, This is a serious thread, and I'd very much appreciate it if some of you didn't hijack it in order to deride me with the kinds of inane posts which have ruined other threads. If you want to indulge in such activities, please start your own thread. Regards, John Kettler I . . . . . have studied nuclear weapons since childhood Regards, John Kettler You wouldn't have been named Pugsley at birth would you? Sheldon maybe? Stewie Griffin? Okay I will honor your request to leave now but not because there is even a single iota of seriousness here. I just can't reveal what I know as you do not have the proper CLAO (Clearance Level Above Obama). Have fun people, the crazy train is leaving the station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apocal Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why? Social media coming from Russian posters should've, by your lights, revealed the Russian troop and equipment movements, so where are all those thrilled-outraged posts? Therefore, it didn't happen, right? Risible. :S They did just that... Smartphone vid of Russian helos flying into the Ukraine. Taken from some guy's window in the Ukraine. Taken on the highway in the Ukraine. You should ask your secret squirrel connections for the Polish invisibility cloaks, I could have used them in the sandbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agusto Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It was a serious question. I regularly read your blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Apocal, CNN doesn't know a tank from an SPG. Those are 122mm 2S1s. The wheeled AFVs are BTR-80s. Mi-24 HIND helos. Hard to say for sure, but estimate F model with twin 30mm cannon and AT-6 SPIRAL ATGMs. I went through multiple versions of the paragraph you quote, but I couldn't find a clear way to express my core concept. That was: If the perceived reality of an event, as seen from your POV, lies in social media, then where're the excited-outraged posts from Russians--made during the force buildup before Russia moved against Ukraine? Those are what I didn't see. Thank you for the images you did provide. sburke, Thank you for taking the wisecracks elsewhere. agusto, Thank you for your courtesy, and I had zero idea it was a serious question, still less you're one of my readers. I will say this, and you're welcome to query me further on my site. Russia has some very exotic aerospace equipment of its own. Regards, John Kettler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apocal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I went through multiple versions of the paragraph you quote, but I couldn't find a clear way to express my core concept. That was: If the perceived reality of an event, as seen from your POV, lies in social media, then where're the excited-outraged posts from Russians--made during the force buildup before Russia moved against Ukraine? Those are what I didn't see. Thank you for the images you did provide. for starters. I just avoid posting Russian-language sources on English-speaking forums as a common courtesy. It wasn't exactly hard to find VK posts indicating dudes were moving within the country and within minutes of their passage into Ukraine, Ukrainians themselves were reporting the movement. So again, how do the Poles slip a full division into the Ukraine? And why exactly? They aren't exactly in love with the far right nationalist elements of the new government, those same guys have previously indicated a desire to reclaim land "lost" to Poland previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Let's put it this way. My contacts are cleared way above President Obama. There are 23 levels of clearance above his. Thanks, John. That was honestly the best laugh I've had in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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