danfrodo Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 I was out for a while today, I come back to see hundreds of Israelis dead, plus hostages. And what will this accomplish for the Palestinians? More suffering. Nice binge but the hangover is gonna be deadly. Starting this thread to get the discussion out of the UKR war thread. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 ISW has an Iran update today focusing on the attack from Gaza: Iran Update Special Edition, October 7, 2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-october-7-2023 Quote One of the most dangerous courses of action Iran could pursue would be to exploit Israeli focus on the Gaza Strip in some way in the coming days and weeks. Iranian leaders will almost certainly look for opportunities to take advantage of the conflict even if they did not direct it. Iran could exploit Israeli distraction by moving advanced military systems into Lebanon and Syria or making significant advances in its nuclear program. This scenario is less likely than others at the moment, but it warrants consideration because it could set conditions for even more significant escalations or geopolitical changes. Incidents like Hamas’ attack no longer remain confined to the immediate area in which they occur. Each now carries the potential to grow into a larger phenomenon with ripple effects throughout the Middle East and even beyond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 English subtitles available: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 English translator: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted October 8, 2023 Author Share Posted October 8, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: English translator: this f-ing dumbass does realize that he'll run out of rockets, and soon, while the Israelis most certainly won't??? What imbecility. Edited October 8, 2023 by danfrodo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted October 8, 2023 Author Share Posted October 8, 2023 I suppose the idea is to start a great uprising in the muslim world against Israel? Kinda like white supremacists in US always thinking if they ignite a race war all the whiteys will be with them. Or like Tet offensive, where NV & VC thought the city folks would support them and rise up (probably true in the countryside, but not in the cities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Just repeating what I said earlier, The real question here is does it spread beyond Gaza. Regardless of how badly they got caught napping Israel can handle Gaza. If Hezbollah piles in Israel can still handle it, but the disruption is going to be severe. And we are REALLY going to regret not starting new ammo plants a year or more ago if this thing goes completely off the rails. As screwy as it seems, the real definition of a super power is still making half a million rounds a month of 155, and a great deal else, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 https://t.me/warmonitors/14801 There is a video at this telegram post: Quote Al-Quds Brigades publishes scenes of the storming of a number of military sites and settlements around the Gaza Strip as part of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/2023-10-07/live-updates-762053 Quote Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from Ashkelon in southern Israel October 7, 2023. (photo credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN) h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/2023-10-07/live-updates-762053 h Pretty clearly Hamas has attempted, with at least some success to put more rockets in the air than the Israelis could deal with at one one time. I also think the rockets have been the least serious part of the attack. The successful ground assaults across this kind of broad frontage just shouldn't have been doable. I am wondering if Hamas, or one of it supporters managed a truly large scale successful cyber attack on the Israeli army com system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Quote https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/07/opinion/israel-hamas-attack-friedman.html When I need the most accurate analysis about Israel, the first call I always make is to my longtime friend and reporting partner there, Nahum Barnea, a veteran Yediot newspaper columnist. When I called him on Saturday afternoon for his read on the Hamas attack on Israel, I was stunned by his first response: “This is the worst day that I can remember in military terms in the history of Israel, including the blunder of the Yom Kippur war, which was terrible.” Friedman is deeply flawed, but he has also been reporting on the middle east since like 1975 or so. He has some subject matter expertise. The biggest issue now is how the Israelis handle the hostages. Historically Israel has tied itself in knots to get hostages back. There is also this little issue of who gets the blame, of which there appears to be great deal to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Important questions for the nerds: Did trophy work against drones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Quote https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-hamas-attacks/675579/?utm_source=threads&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=edit-promo This Will Be a Pyrrhic Victory for Hamas Israel could go much further than it has in the past in responding to the group’s attacks. Much the same overall take. But he emphasizes that Israel is going to be extremely heavy handed in its response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, dan/california said: There is also this little issue of who gets the blame, of which there appears to be great deal to go around. And the matter of the epic Israeli political crisis, which can roughly be framed as “liberals own the courts, conservatives have a popular majority”. I used to read Haaretz religiously (for entertainment, to make myself feel better about American politics) and the divisions in Israel make America look pretty lame by comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: And the matter of the epic Israeli political crisis, which can roughly be framed as “liberals own the courts, conservatives have a popular majority”. I used to read Haaretz religiously (for entertainment, to make myself feel better about American politics) and the divisions in Israel make America look pretty lame by comparison. Yeah this is going to break the political stalemate. I am just not sure which side wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 (edited) American news media is doing a crap job as usual https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/07/naked-israeli-woman-paraded-jeering-hamas-fighters/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr Quote In one video, a crying woman named Noa was loaded onto a motorcycle as she reached out in tears to a man who was being marched with his hands tied behind his back by captors. She had also been attending a music festival before she was abducted into Gaza. Hamas released footage of a group of Israeli men lying on a concrete floor in a dark room with their hands also tied behind their backs. Hamas is acting like the Russian Army, but unless I missed something they are not a major nuclear power. They have a very good chance of getting to pay their bill in full. Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, dan/california said: There is also this little issue of who gets the blame The pundits addressed that earlier today. Naturally, it's all Biden's fault. And the Russian invasion too. Despicable blathering idiots. Edit: "puppets", not pundits. Damn spellcheck. Edited October 8, 2023 by Sojourner 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sojourner said: Edit: "puppets", not pundits. Damn spellcheck. Most of them are both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 It seems the Arab world, in general, is very happy right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrophel Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 This whole thing is so ill-conceived it might have been dreamed up in Moscow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 I haven't come across man overview maps of the fighting, but the Russian telegrammer Rybar offers these: https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/07/20231007232801-43400a46.jpg https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/08/20231008074318-ccdfc27d.jpg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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