How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Today I was reminded of the lawsuit against Oracle Systems for illegally tracking people's personal data and Internet use through their backend systems that nobody is even aware of being used.  They then sold that data.  And there's lots more where that came from.

You wouldn't even have to feed a predictive AI system that much information for it to make pretty good guesses at things that are routine for the target.  We Humans are creatures of habit and simplicity.  Work routine is the easiest thing to tap into because all you really need to know is where the person works and that's pretty much all one needs.  Oh, they work from home?  Well, even easier.

Anyway, you don't even need that.  All you need to do is hack into the person's phone and you will have a nice GPS beacon showing where the target is in realtime.

Even if there are some practical hurdles today, they aren't very high and can be jumped with the right incentives.

Battlefield killbots are even easier because they don't need to be so particular.

Steve

You don't even need to hack a persons phone.  If you're in a war situation like Ukraine, you can listen for the pings from the phone and track its position.  There are commercially available devices for doing that, mostly sold to police departments.

If you're a government in a war zone, you can use the cell system itself for doing that, without having any access to any particular phone. You just need to know which phone you want to find.  It doesn't even need to be transmitting GPS coordinates if you have a moderate number of tracking receivers - I get accurate realtime  locations of aircraft that are only transmitting a hex code and not full ADS-B data, just from multi-lateralization from a handful of receivers that are all running $30 SDRs feeding raspberry pis that dump to a server that calculates it on the fly.

License plate readers are practically trivial to make.

[Battlefront.com]

Rare footage of a BMP's forward hull MGs in action before getting knocked out by FPVs.  The footage starts out upside down:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1g2lav9/ua_25th_airborne_brigades_uav_team_targeted/

Steve

[dan/california]

54 minutes ago, chrisl said:

License plate readers are practically trivial to make.

And in wide use, so the data is there for the hacking.

[kimbosbread]

There should be an ignoble prize for weaponry that could be won with the most absurd weapons systems, for example a killer drone that identifies its targets by sniffing and analyzing farts.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

There should be an ignoble prize for weaponry that could be won with the most absurd weapons systems, for example a killer drone that identifies its targets by sniffing and analyzing farts.

I think I could arrange that drone for you for not that much money (at least on the scale of military industrial complex prices).

[Billy Ringo]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Today I was reminded of the lawsuit against Oracle Systems for illegally tracking people's personal data and Internet use through their backend systems that nobody is even aware of being used.  They then sold that data.  And there's lots more where that came from.

Worked for Oracle about 10 years ago.  While discussing a retail solution that would autonomously steer a web customer towards products based on their known profile, the sales trainer made a comment that stuck with me:   "There's a fine line between being a butler and a stalker."

This was 10+ years ago, the data they have on us is scary.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rare footage of a BMP's forward hull MGs in action before getting knocked out by FPVs.  The footage starts out upside down:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1g2lav9/ua_25th_airborne_brigades_uav_team_targeted/

Steve

Good find, not sure I have seen them use the MGs before in any previous footage. Such a bizarre design choice to further complicate a vehicle that's fraught with design problems. Seems a utter waste of internal storage space. 

[Silentkilarz]

Some BDA from last weeks strike

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Good find, not sure I have seen them use the MGs before in any previous footage. Such a bizarre design choice to further complicate a vehicle that's fraught with design problems. Seems a utter waste of internal storage space. 

I think this is a holdover to the original Soviet concept of IFV where the soldiers fought from within the vehicle.  The complex firing ports and ventilation they provided for the riflemen clearly showed they expected the vehicles to get VERY close to the enemy.  Putting some hull mounted MGs on the front to clear a path for the dismounts makes sense within that design paradigm.

The problem with this theory is NATO's emphasis on ranged weapons, be it attack helicopters in the earlier days or PGMs more recently.  The chances of an IFV closing with the enemy, providing fire support, AND surviving are extremely slim.  Case in point was in this video.  As with you, first time I've ever seen those hull MGs used and the vehicle did not survive.

Which gets back to the economics of these vehicles.  Not only is it a waste of internal storage space to have those MGs, but it is a waste of money to put them there.  It's also a waste of shop floor time to get them fitted and installed.  Other things could be done with those resources.

Steve

[billbindc]

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

And in wide use, so the data is there for the hacking.

Something we use a lot in my industry…and yes, easy to use but also quite easy to spoof. 

[acrashb]

11 hours ago, chrisl said:

You don't even need to hack a persons phone.  If you're in a war situation like Ukraine, you can listen for the pings from the phone and track its position.  There are commercially available devices for doing that, mostly sold to police departments.

It doesn’t even need to be a war zone. Up here, I can buy a ‘ping’ from a private investigator at a very reasonable price if I’m trying to locate someone to issue a summons or a cease-and-desist letter.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

Worked for Oracle about 10 years ago.  While discussing a retail solution that would autonomously steer a web customer towards products based on their known profile, the sales trainer made a comment that stuck with me:   "There's a fine line between being a butler and a stalker."

This was 10+ years ago, the data they have on us is scary.

 

When we first started talking about where drone tech is headed back at the start of this war, I think most people thought the innovation curve would be fairly flat instead of being more like an elevator ride.  I know when we've talked about "killbots" before there was a significant amount of thinking that this was way off in the future. 

Thanks to participants here who have 1st hand industry experience, I think we've clearly established that the future is here already.  True, some of this stuff is still in the lab, but we're not talking about cold fusion.  We're talking about something that is clearly, very clearly practical to scale up.  Primarily because its software based on existing tech.

Just about the only sci-fi killbot behavior I don't see on the horizon in the very near future is something that can home in on DNA.  That's more akin to cold fusion in that experiments in the lab have shown it is possible to "sniff" DNA and analyze it (medical uses are pushing this), but miniaturizing it is probably still a ways off.  Not decades though

Then there's nano killbots on the horizon.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/world/europe/russia-ukraine-kursk-incursion.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SE4.rgjH.AVbryH3bSpdM&smid=url-share

Moscow’s forces have been recapturing some villages and land taken in a Ukrainian incursion into Russia. The advances could undermine Kyiv’s hopes of pushing Russia to the negotiating table.

 

Both sides are throwing everything to be in the best possible place the day after the election.

[mosuri]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just about the only sci-fi killbot behavior I don't see on the horizon in the very near future is something that can home in on DNA.  That's more akin to cold fusion in that experiments in the lab have shown it is possible to "sniff" DNA and analyze it (medical uses are pushing this), but miniaturizing it is probably still a ways off.  Not decades though

Then there's nano killbots on the horizon.

Steve

Yeah, how is it that the sci-fi future we're getting has to involve Dune hunter seekers. I'd rather take flying cars and pill sized meals.

[Battlefront.com]

Two articles in The Hill today.  The first is reporting that Zelensky is confirming that North Korean military personnel are actively fighting on behalf of Russia.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4931879-ukraine-north-korean-troops-fighting-russia/

The ramifications of this could be profound.  We've been wondering how Russia would get more bodies for its meat waves in 2025, and this could be the answer.  It also comes cheaply for Russia because, presumably, it is bartering for them instead of having to come up with hard currency.  Given their wages back home in NK are even lower than Russians', it's certainly more sustainable than the current approach to lure Russian men into service.

The second article is an OpEd that is rounding up some expert analysis that Russia will experience a deep economic crisis, probably collapse, by the end of 2025:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4931629-a-russian-economic-meltdown-is-coming-next-year/

Nothing we haven't already covered here, but it's a good quick synopsis of what happens when a country wages a war that its economy can not handle. 

Steve

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russian-floating-barriers-near-crimean-bridge-washed-away-by-sea/ar-AA1sbWMN?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=1ce0155c019b4ee2898fcadeae3c4169&ei=95#comments

Whoops, that didn't work.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two articles in The Hill today.  The first is reporting that Zelensky is confirming that North Korean military personnel are actively fighting on behalf of Russia.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4931879-ukraine-north-korean-troops-fighting-russia/

The ramifications of this could be profound.  We've been wondering how Russia would get more bodies for its meat waves in 2025, and this could be the answer.  It also comes cheaply for Russia because, presumably, it is bartering for them instead of having to come up with hard currency.  Given their wages back home in NK are even lower than Russians', it's certainly more sustainable than the current approach to lure Russian men into service.

The second article is an OpEd that is rounding up some expert analysis that Russia will experience a deep economic crisis, probably collapse, by the end of 2025:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4931629-a-russian-economic-meltdown-is-coming-next-year/

Nothing we haven't already covered here, but it's a good quick synopsis of what happens when a country wages a war that its economy can not handle. 

Steve

If the North Koreans show up in real numbers? That is an issue, because meat for the grinder has seemed ever closer to becoming the pinch point Russia can't get past.

[mosuri]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If the North Koreans show up in real numbers? That is an issue, because meat for the grinder has seemed ever closer to becoming the pinch point Russia can't get past.

I wonder how hard boiled ideologically those troops are. Maybe South Korea could provide asylum for any defectors, and Ukraine could pay a bonus for any russians they frag on the way over ...

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, mosuri said:

I wonder how hard boiled ideologically those troops are. Maybe South Korea could provide asylum for any defectors, and Ukraine could pay a bonus for any russians they frag on the way over ...

I suspect they have been beaten and indoctrinated into near absolute robotic adherence to orders.

The one thing that might shake them is if they figure out even poor Russians can usually afford food and rotgut vodka. I suspect they will be shipped straight to the Donbas with as little contact with anybody as humanly possible. If the Russians do something stupid an use them for garrison duty somewhere quiet, it might get interesting. Ukraine needs to get South Korean intelligence on the zoom call.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

If the North Koreans show up in real numbers? That is an issue, because meat for the grinder has seemed ever closer to becoming the pinch point Russia can't get past.

I expect their combat value to be extremely low relative to Ukraine, but probably on par with the bulk of the Russian forces.  Specifically, useful for meatwave attacks and not much more than that. 

A few thousand won't even register with this war.  A few 10s of thousands might have a small impact on one particular fight.  To have a significant impact on the war we're talking something like 50 thousand up front all at once and that number maintained for a year or so.

I expect the average NK soldier will die with even less complaint than the average Russian.

Steve

[panzermartin]

At last, some decent engineering vehicles they must be thinking 

[Offshoot]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just about the only sci-fi killbot behavior I don't see on the horizon in the very near future is something that can home in on DNA.  That's more akin to cold fusion in that experiments in the lab have shown it is possible to "sniff" DNA and analyze it (medical uses are pushing this), but miniaturizing it is probably still a ways off.  Not decades though

They aren't sniffing DNA in the sense that it is being detected remotely or can detect a specific sequence. Environmental sampling involves collecting samples (e.g. airborne particles, soil samples, etc.) and then sequencing what is found. By analysing the sample you can determine what sort of organisms the DNA came from. With enough markers you could theoretically say "this person was close by at some point in time", but you couldn't use it to locate a person in a crowd, and certainly not in real time. A current rate limiting step is speed of sequencing - even the fastest still takes several hours to complete. We aren't quite at Gattaca levels yet (and even they had to suck up all the skin flakes to test them).

[Carolus]

I visited another forum that follows the Ukraine War (pro-West, pro-Ukraine) and it was fascinating to see that they were discussing every single thing that Cap, Steve and some others have been warning against here.

"If Ukraine had more Western tanks..."

"If Russia and Ukraine knew how to do combined arms..."

"The West would do everything better..."

"If you would establish air supremacy..."

"Ukraine needs more tanks for a combined arms maneuver force..."

"Ukraine needs to finally create brigades for maneuver warfare..."

"The Ukraine war is just different from how the West would fight..."

"Russia and Ukraine didn't have the abilities for combined arms manoeveur warfare and that's why..."

"The fact that Western militaries are not radically changing their doctrine is proof that..."

 

And it goes on and on and on like this. Word for word, page by page.

It was disheartening. It was like they were not seeing battalion-sized assault groups going on suicide-runs while being observed in HD the whole way from their staging area to the TRP.

Edited Monday at 07:11 PM by Carolus

[Jiggathebauce]

27 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I visited another forum that follows the Ukraine War (pro-West, pro-Ukraine) and it was fascinating to see that they were discussing every single thing that Cap, Steve and some others have been warning against here.

"If Ukraine had more Western tanks..."

"If Russia and Ukraine knew how to do combined arms..."

"The West would do everything better..."

"If you would establish air supremacy..."

"Ukraine needs more tanks for a combined arms maneuver force..."

"Ukraine needs to finally create brigades for maneuver warfare..."

"The Ukraine war is just different from how the West would fight..."

"Russia and Ukraine didn't have the abilities for combined arms manoeveur warfare and that's why..."

"The fact that Western militaries are not radically changing their doctrine is proof that..."

 

And it goes on and on and on like this. Word for word, page by page.

It was disheartening. It was like they were not seeing battalion-sized assault groups going on suicide-runs while being observed in HD the whole way from their staging area to the TRP.

This really hits on what I DESPISE about the wargaming/military  science hobby, that large swathes of enthusiasts are low information, uncritical people focused on aesthetics and established tropes over everything else. tank barrel measurers who assume everything operates in a flat 1:1 vacuum 

[chrisl]

53 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

They aren't sniffing DNA in the sense that it is being detected remotely or can detect a specific sequence. Environmental sampling involves collecting samples (e.g. airborne particles, soil samples, etc.) and then sequencing what is found. By analysing the sample you can determine what sort of organisms the DNA came from. With enough markers you could theoretically say "this person was close by at some point in time", but you couldn't use it to locate a person in a crowd, and certainly not in real time. A current rate limiting step is speed of sequencing - even the fastest still takes several hours to complete. We aren't quite at Gattaca levels yet (and even they had to suck up all the skin flakes to test them).

That's for a full genome of a person. You can do segments in much less time, and there sequencers that will fit in your pocket that do 400 bases/s.  The machine used in the linked article essentially uses a bunch of similar devices in parallel, because sequencing is very parallelizable.  The catch with the one that fits in your pocket is that you still need a human to paint a film with the protein pore over a tiny aperture.  People have been working for decades to try to make a solid state pore, but it won't happen any time soon - the protein pore is much more than just a hole that the DNA gets pulled through, and nobody can make a machine out of silicon on that scale.

You don't need a lot of sample (like sucking up skin flakes).  With PCR you can do single-cell sequencing, but the PCR machine also takes time and isn't tiny (though they are benchtop).  People use MinIons in the field to sequence things in bulk to measure the genetic diversity of a sample of water, a bacterial mat, or some other goo.