How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

Ok, perhaps we should list some lessons we learned from Kharkiv and apply to this whole Kursk thing:

1.  Open source reporting from social media is often ahead of mainstream reporting, but it very often lacks objectivity and expertise.  What is actually happening on the ground is very likely very different than the chatter, particularly in the opening few days.

2.  We should avoid leaping to either the conclusions we want to see, or are afraid to see based on this initial reporting.  At Kharkiv we saw people drawing big red lines everywhere and talking about “envelopment”.  At Kursk we now have big blue lines everywhere and talk of Russian collapse and Ukraine seizing all sorts of stuff.

3.  We can conclusively say that conventional warfare and military works in areas where the enemy is not, initially. Both Kharkiv and Kursk are both hundreds of kms from the main combat zones.  Neither sector was heavily defended from either side.  I strongly suspect that each side had eyes on the problem but either failed to respond or simply could not due to resource constraints.  The thing we should be watching for is how fast this new front stabilizes and then freezes.  Kharkiv was what?  About a week?  Kursk has been in motion for 3-4 days now.  So what is importantly is how fast the entire Russian system can react to this eruption.  If it takes Russia a month, they are worse off than we thought or the UA have come up with some next level stuff to sustain freedom of maneuver.

4.  Surprise is dead, but human error is not. Once again it appears that good old human denial, misreads, miscommunication and @ss covering/blame shifting is at work. It is beginning to look like the UA pulled of some good deception but not clear on how they did it - my bet is that is was more low tech and old fashion.  Either way, they did create surprise in intent or at least obscured their intent enough so that the RA read what they wanted to see, not what was there.

5.  Your special interest is really not that important.  And I am as guilty of this as anyone, it is human nature.  Both at Kharkiv and now Kursk, everyone sees what they want to see.  Whatever special teddy bear they have been clinging onto gets thrust forward - “see!” So be you a cheerleader, pessimist, conservative or progressive - when something happens: your special teddy bear really does not matter, or help in trying to determine what is going on.  All it really does is set up for confirmation bias.

So what do we know?  Well based on ISWs latest, it looks like the UA are still making trouble but likely not as deep as initial reporting and chatter claimed:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-9-2024

Further, it looks like Russia is going to accept risk and leave the push back to SOF and irregulars…but we really do not know if this is valid.  Further we really do not know the Ukrainian intent here but best guess for me is that this was a demonstration aimed to impress.  

It impresses Russia and may force them to take pressure off the southern fronts and culminate offensive operations earlier.  This may not be good news as we do not know if this is shaping or a desperate move to try and relieve pressure on UA forces.  As we have not seen another major push down south for the UA yet, we can only assume it is pressure relief.

Politically this was risky.  It does show Russian weakness, pretty boldly.  But ask yourself when has invading Russian homelands ever turned out well for an invader? Mongols, maybe?  This action could blowback and give Putin just cause for a number of political actions. If spun, and it will be spun, it could support a second mobilization.  On the other hand, this action clearly demonstrates to allies that Ukraine is still in the fight.  The theory here is that this will equal future support, and it is not a bad way to go.  Finally, there is a chance that Ukraine is grabbing a bargaining chip here with a view to end game negotiations. I am doubtful as the cost of holding  this chip is likely going to be high but it is a possibility. It would give Ukraine something to trade but as we know holding onto a foreign occupied territory is rife with risks.

Strategically, it is going to pull resources and attention away from other fronts…this is good.  What I want to see is if the UA are shaping.  Are they trying to pull the RA in other directions because they know that it is close to collapse?  Or are they doing it because they, the UA, are?  Essentially from a Strategic point of view we do not know if this was shaping offensively or defensively.

Operationally and tactically there are some lessons and new tactics and procedures we may see in all this. Those could be signals of shifts on the battlefield, or not. These may take the longest to sort out and I would suggest leaping to conclusions too quickly.

We have been watching for months as this grinding war really became routine.  The something happened, but I would try to keep it perspective.  

Edited August 10 by The_Capt

[Kraft]

I would like to note that the slowdown now is not due to russian fpvs decimating advancing ZSU units, or minefields taking the 15th Bradley, or the 10th trench line in 1 km being contested. 

 

Given the terrain I will just make a wild guess here and say this will be shaped like another Krynky tumor, that the russians can only remove by attacking with heavy machinery down long narrow roads that get easily blocked and can be attritted the entire way because politically I dont think Putin will / can let this just stay occupied and uncontested for various reasons.

Maybe I am wrong and a 2nd echelon is preparing to push for rylsk after the first has set up some staying power to the east

i guess we need some more tea leafes?

Edited August 10 by Kraft

[Sgt Joch]

Just to add to what the Capt wrote, people seem to think that “social media” somehow gives them a special insight in what is going on, but in my experience 99% of the “facts” on the internet are: rumours, speculations, panic, boasting, exaggeration, misinformation, propaganda, outright lies, etc. I would argue the “Fog of War” for civilians is as thick now as it was in WW2.

[Haiduk]

Russian milbloggers reported tank units were moved to Kursk oblast - they seiz ambush positions to eliminate UKR mobile groups

One of this ambushes was ambushed by UKR mobile group reportedly with NLAW

Next "ethernal flight" from Fighterbomber - in Kursk oblast the second Ka-52 was shot down with "MANPAD point blank shot" by UKR mobile group. Crew is dead

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

This is information from UKR TG, tied with head of Mykolaiv oblast administration Vitaliy Kim about Russian troops pulling to Kursk oblast:

To Kursk oblast, except reserves, conscripts and some units, which never fought, other units are moving or will move from next directions:

- Kherson direction (2 battatlions of VDV)

- Zaporizhzhia (38th and 64th motor-rifle brigades)

- Kharkiv/Kupiansk (were spotted battalions, which are parts of 1009th Ter.troops MRR, 79th MRR of 18th MSD, 272nd MRR of 47th TD and 138th motor-rifle brigade)

- Belgorod (from Graivoron district they take about a company from one of brigades, also they take one a company from MRR, which terrorized Sotnytskyi Kozachok village)

- Pokrovsk (recently arrived there from Kherson 810th naval infantry brigade and some assault battalions)

- Luhansk ("bearded" - he means one of multiple Kadyrov's "Akhmat" units)

This is for now. Some moving units on Kupiansk direction were spotted and hit. 

 

PS. Accordiong to Russian sources 810th naval infantry brigade already involved in Kursk oblast

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Some about naval warfare.

In the night on 9th of August GUR's Magura v5 kamikadze attacked Chornomorske secondary naval base in Crimea. Despite Russians could destroy several drones at least two broke through to the harbot and one of tehm sank small boat KS-701 Tunets-class of FSB Coastal Guard.

 

[Letter from Prague]

Honestly the most interesting part for me is to watch the reactions.

It is obvious that Ukraine is now the same as Israel in a way that everybody's mind on the matter is already made up and new facts don't really change it. It is a game with well known teams and well known players - everybody is already in positions waiting for the next round.

I've seen people who from the very beginning claim that Ukraine has no chance and should surrender or give up territory in exchange for peace or whatever trip over themselves to come up with reasons why this won't change anything or won't help or is actually helping Russia in some way (surely they will now mobilize or use nukes or whatever).

I've seen people who think Ukraine can win claim how this is a proof they are right and Ukraine now has it in the bag.

What I have not seen is anyone position actually changing. Which is strange, this is a potential gamechanger, but yeah.

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is information from UKR TG, tied with head of Mykolaiv oblast administration Vitaliy Kim about Russian troops pulling to Kursk oblast:

To Kursk oblast, except reserves, conscripts and some units, which never fought, other units are moving or will move from next directions:

- Kherson direction (2 battatlions of VDV)

- Zaporizhzhia (38th and 64th motor-rifle brigades)

- Kharkiv/Kupiansk (were spotted battalions, which are parts of 1009th Ter.troops MRR, 79th MRR of 18th MSD, 272nd MRR of 47th TD and 138th motor-rifle brigade)

- Belgorod (from Graivoron district they take about a company from one of brigades, also they take one a company from MRR, which terrorized Sotnytskyi Kozachok village)

- Pokrovsk (recently arrived there from Kherson 810th naval infantry brigade and some assault battalions)

- Luhansk ("bearded" - he means one of multiple Kadyrov's "Akhmat" units)

This is for now. Some moving units on Kupiansk direction were spotted and hit. 

 

PS. Accordiong to Russian sources 810th naval infantry brigade already involved in Kursk oblast

If confirmed, looks like the RA is cherry picking the line.  On paper this looks anywhere from 5-10k troops but without know actual troop strengths this is guesswork.  The RA has a force strength in this war of around 500k (give or take), so based on this it appears as though it is not pulling any major muscle movements.

This would not be entirely surprising as Russian doctrine will always trade ground - mainly because they have so much of it.  The nearest real strategic target would be Kursk itself, but even if in some version of reality where Ukraine could threaten it, this would constitute no real major threat to RA operations down south.  The M4 MSR is over 300kms away - last force to threaten it was Priggy and the Boys.

Now a big question is what RuAF assets have been pulled away to deal with this.  Those are lower density and could have a greater effect if shifted.  ISR is the other issue. RA ISR will likely have to deal with this as well, especially as assets get hit.

The real indicator is if/when we see UA forces pull back across the border.  The aim right now appears to cause as much disruption as possible, the trick will be in knowing when that has culminated.  As a raid this is brilliant stuff.  If the aim is to take and hold...well it gets more complicated. 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Honestly the most interesting part for me is to watch the reactions.

It is obvious that Ukraine is now the same as Israel in a way that everybody's mind on the matter is already made up and new facts don't really change it. It is a game with well known teams and well known players - everybody is already in positions waiting for the next round.

I've seen people who from the very beginning claim that Ukraine has no chance and should surrender or give up territory in exchange for peace or whatever trip over themselves to come up with reasons why this won't change anything or won't help or is actually helping Russia in some way (surely they will now mobilize or use nukes or whatever).

I've seen people who think Ukraine can win claim how this is a proof they are right and Ukraine now has it in the bag.

What I have not seen is anyone position actually changing. Which is strange, this is a potential gamechanger, but yeah.

I have never really understood why people thought Ukraine was down for the count.  They successfully held off a much larger opponent with so much less - Moneyball Warfare.  Offensively there was an argument to be made, but then they went and did this...again, demonstration.  Russia has been breaking hands and balls on this war at immense expense, it will take them a decade to recover...if they can at all.  That is not a beaten Ukraine.

As to "gamechanger", I think it is too soon to call it.  Much in the same way that Kharkiv was not a gamechanger in the end, even though the naysayers seemed to see it that way.

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger reports UKR artillery heavy shelled Tyotkino - border settlement of Kursk oblast. Communication tower was destroyed. No internet and cell communication. 

I suppose, such demonstrations - shellings and small incursions like in Belgorod oblast today will take place throughout several days to hold Russians in tense. And when Russian reserves will engage our troops in Kursk oblast, the next blow will follow. 

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

small incursions like in Belgorod oblast today

Is this Poroz?

[Haiduk]

Andrew Perpetua list of equipment, lost in Kursk operation.

37 of UKR, 38 of Russia. But UKR lost much more armor.

Large group of UKR armored cars were hit by Iskander strike.

I just note, during these four days we could see only Russian videos and only a day ago first Ukrainian footages began to appear. As claimed TG Officer+ "we have captured equipment approx the same amount like captured mobiks"

In this operation UKR forces try to evacuate damaged vehicles. Recently there was a video of damaged Cougar armored car recovering, here is more videos of damaged Striker, MaxxPro and VAB evacuation

 

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Is this Poroz?

Yes

[Haiduk]

Russian TGs report about heavy clashes in Martynovka NE from Sudzha - as if most of village already was taken back. One of "Akhmat" comamnders at least was making a selfy on background of abandoned Marder in the  tree-plant

 

 

On other hand Russian milbloggers reported Plekhovo village was completely fell to UKR 

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Large amount of engineer vehicles already spotted in rare UKR videos say this is not a raid like "hit and run back"

T-72B3 mod.2022 with VDV emblem was captured in Kursk oblast. It's hard to say was really this tank of VDV unit or just someone of the crew was airborne in past and decided to put emblem on the tank.

 

 

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

I was thinking that it's really, really odd that we've heard so little from the big mouth of the little man that is Kadyrov.  Earlier in the war he was in the news almost every week for something and then he would reliably pop up after that.  We all remember what he was like when Priggy did his Moscow run.  And yet, nothing he's done has managed to grab headlines.  I find that very noteworthy.

So I did a quick search and didn't come up with much.  There was a documentary movie about him that was, as it should be, unflattering.  But this article from last week caught my eye:

https://www.ft.com/content/b2332f6e-df84-4fa4-a590-5fab3590c397

There is so much to see in this article that goes way beyond Kadyrov.  In a nutshell, a side effect of being shut out of Western institutions is that business disputes can no longer be settled in the West by rule of law.  Everything now is reliant upon the mafia state that is Russia.  The article details an obviously shady deal that, as shady deals do, left someone out of billions.  So he went to Kadyrov as an enforcer working on his behalf to settle the dispute.

The article also explicitly states that this likely came about due to the rapidly crumbling business environment we were just discussing with Grigb.  It is hinting that the biggest, richest, and most powerful are obligated to do extraordinary things to keep their wealth from evaporating.

Fascinating.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Quote

Earlier today, Russian channels posted a video of an Iskander strike on a reported Ukrainian position in Kursk Oblast.

Of note, the Ukrainian position was 25km into Russian territory, over halfway to the key Rylsk-Kursk E38 motorway.

russian strike on a Ukrainain position deep inside Kursk

51.444574, 35.220418

@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap

The Russian Iskander also appears to have missed the vehicles in the treeline initially pointed to (red circle)

 

[OldSarge]

An interesting view of Russia's economy from market watchers.

"Putin's choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia's demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe," the recent report says.

Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster

Disclaimer, this article is based upon a report from the Atlantic council. The report was authored by a single economist. So the usual take with grain of salt warning applies.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Fantastic thread on the drone war as it stands. Russia really is shooting itself in the foot here and the complaints from their volunteers seem to be getting more and more vocal. 

All of which is great of course!

[ArmouredTopHat]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was thinking that it's really, really odd that we've heard so little from the big mouth of the little man that is Kadyrov.  Earlier in the war he was in the news almost every week for something and then he would reliably pop up after that.  We all remember what he was like when Priggy did his Moscow run.  And yet, nothing he's done has managed to grab headlines.  I find that very noteworthy.

So I did a quick search and didn't come up with much.  There was a documentary movie about him that was, as it should be, unflattering.  But this article from last week caught my eye:

https://www.ft.com/content/b2332f6e-df84-4fa4-a590-5fab3590c397

There is so much to see in this article that goes way beyond Kadyrov.  In a nutshell, a side effect of being shut out of Western institutions is that business disputes can no longer be settled in the West by rule of law.  Everything now is reliant upon the mafia state that is Russia.  The article details an obviously shady deal that, as shady deals do, left someone out of billions.  So he went to Kadyrov as an enforcer working on his behalf to settle the dispute.

The article also explicitly states that this likely came about due to the rapidly crumbling business environment we were just discussing with Grigb.  It is hinting that the biggest, richest, and most powerful are obligated to do extraordinary things to keep their wealth from evaporating.

Fascinating.

Steve

The man gives me serious Goring vibes. Full of talk and bluster but very little actual substance. Same as his Akhmat special forces that seem to spend more time fighting trees, traffic lights and railways than actual people. 

Watching other Russian forces get increasingly disgusted by them is pure catharsis. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Politically this was risky.  It does show Russian weakness, pretty boldly.  But ask yourself when has invading Russian homelands ever turned out well for an invader? Mongols, maybe?  This action could blowback and give Putin just cause for a number of political actions. If spun, and it will be spun, it could support a second mobilization.  On the other hand, this action clearly demonstrates to allies that Ukraine is still in the fight.  The theory here is that this will equal future support, and it is not a bad way to go.  Finally, there is a chance that Ukraine is grabbing a bargaining chip here with a view to end game negotiations. I am doubtful as the cost of holding  this chip is likely going to be high but it is a possibility. It would give Ukraine something to trade but as we know holding onto a foreign occupied territory is rife with risks.

Lots of good thoughts in your missive, but this one I think misses the mark.  Russian history does, indeed, show plenty of examples of Russians rallying around the flag and marching to their deaths.  We have even seen a little of Putin's twisted "we are the victims and getting them before they get us" working at least well enough to keep the homefront from collapsing.

However, there are other things to look at to gauge how Russia might handle this.  I'll start with 1917.

Russians had been at war for years, lost huge numbers of people, and homefront conditions had gotten to be really dire.  The people were expected to do more to defend Russia, but the people said no.  Troops were ordered to put down protests, the troops said no.  Revolution followed.

This pattern repeated itself in 1991, though the stress was economic.  People had enough, troops were ordered to get them in line, troops said no, and the Soviet regime collapsed.

I believe that Russians are viewing Putin has having bitten off more than Russia can chew.  They don't care a flying fig about Ukraine, they don't necessarily even care about all the deaths of their own people.  I'm not sure many in Russia really care about the border areas being struck, and now occupied, by Ukrainian forces *more* than they care about their selfish life interests.

We have talked many times about the reasons Putin has not done a second mobilization even though, militarily, it is what Russia needs to knock Ukraine out of the war.  If Putin is forced into a second mobilization because of this raid, it is far more likely to blow back in Putin's face rather than Ukraine's.  If Putin does not call for a second mobilization, then we're back to the situation of Ukraine forcing Russia to invest in an area it didn't expect to, does not want to, and might not really be able to do effectively.

So on this count, I see no potential for blowback OTHER than everything we've talked about from a chaotic, catastrophic collapse of the Russian state.  But if this one raid manages to do that, then I'd argue it was going to happen sooner rather than later for some other reason.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

An interesting view of Russia's economy from market watchers.

"Putin's choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia's demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe," the recent report says.

Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster

Disclaimer, this article is based upon a report from the Atlantic council. The report was authored by a single economist. So the usual take with grain of salt warning applies.

I will give it a read, but this is something I've been saying since just before the war started.  And facts that have emerged since then seem to reinforce the notion that part of the reason for this war was to address the downward trajectory of the Russian economy.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Interestinhg observation of UKR serviceman since several days ago two fundrising campaigns from Serhiy Sternenko and "Back-and-Alive" fund were announced - both directed to the struggle with Russian long-range winged drones, using FPV interceptors. Fundrising also includes vehicles, comm equipment and many other. Funrising of Sternenko already done - 70 millions UAH (1,5 millions USD) and first orders already done

Ah ha ha - no one drone during half day over the head!  The program of mr.Sternenko is working

And video of interceptions of Russian winged drones only by one 38th marines brigade during last days

One of drone-interceptors of "Stalevi shershni" (eng. Steel hornets) design group

In one of FB posts, serviceman told until the end of 2022 UKR SHORAD systems effectively fought with Russian drones, but since 2023 Russian industry have been increasing production in times. Their current volumes of all these Zala, Orlans, SuperCams ets in 5-7 times more than in pre-war times (hello to sanctions). Russians have huge stocks of drones, which allow them quickly replenish losses, so their quantity came to quality - UKR SHORAD and AD just turned out unable to track each drone and fire at it. Also we have a huge lack of SHORAD missiles. The stocks of Strela-10 and OSA (not SHORAD, but actively uses against drones) almost depleted. Number of Stormer and other western SHORAD missiles supply is insufficient. So, drone-interceptors turned out our single opportunity to throw down Russian drones from the sky, because their mass usage and upgrade of Russian ISR capabilities now create real threat of any valuable target in Iskander/Tornado  range withing dozen of minites instead hours in past 

Edited August 10 by Haiduk

[ArmouredTopHat]

The amount of engineer vehicle footage we are seeing really does imply the Ukrainians have been able to recover a lot of vehicles without too much bother here. 

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

The amount of engineer vehicle footage we are seeing really does imply the Ukrainians have been able to recover a lot of vehicles without too much bother here. 

Given how little the Russians are able to do the the frontline Ukrainian forces, this is not a surprise.  Even in the horrors of the 2023 summer offensive's early phase Ukraine did a pretty good job recovering vehicles.  This, by contrast, is "a walk in the park".

Steve