How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

RU local driver from this video (roundabout at the entrance to Sudzha) said to RU reporters there were no RU forces on the route to Sudzha, save for a few soldiers in the bushes.

[Raskol]

Unites are getting pulled from certain areas. 

 

 

[Grigb]

RU mobik reports average RU drone experience

Quote

1) Approximately 40-45% of FPV drones are lost when using them.

2) Of all the lost drones, if we take them as 100%, about 50-60% are lost due to the low qualification of operators. About 30% is downed by the UKR jammers — because the "sudoplatovsky" birds fly using a long-known standard frequency. And only 10-20% of drones are shot down by UKR small arms fire.

3) For what purposes can the existing drone models be used? To hit individual foxholes and dugouts directly on the frontline, using holes in enemy jammer field. But not for flights to the enemy's rear.

But there is no silver lining without a tiny bit of goodness — since we do not care about "sudoplatovsky" consumables [drones], the qualification of pilots is slowly growing [by learning on crashing them].

 

[Grigb]

RU Nat speculations

Quote

So, the alleged grouping of enemy forces in the Kursk direction is represented by the "ranger corps", the 22nd, 32nd mechanized brigades, battalions of the 80th and 82nd airborne assault brigades, the 54th reconnaissance battalion, the 49th artillery Brigade, the 14th UAV regiment, which are used as reinforcement territorial defense battalions of the 103rd, 105th, 110th, 123rd, 129th TrO brigades.

 there is also mention of the 88th brigade, but I still have doubts about it in general about the very fact of its existence – for quite a long time she was a kind of "scarecrow", a fake, non-existent brigade in reality, and now it got into the information space again.

What does this list say? Right. This list indicates that the full-blooded, armed and past (passing) combat coordination (or restoring combat capability) 62nd, 117th, 152nd, 153rd, 154th, 155th, 156th, 157th, 158th, 159th mechanized and infantry brigades have NOT BEEN PUT INTO BATTLE in the Kursk direction, which means only one thing: THEY WILL STRIKE SOMEWHERE ELSE.

For example, they will be used in the seizure of the Zaporizhia NPP.

Well, here is another interesting rumor  - UKR are waiting for RU to pull units from UKR and weaken something. Only then main strike will come at that location. This main strike will force RU to stop current offensive by pulling units from there to defend against main UKR strike.

So, it is possible that Kurk battle is not raid or land grab. It might be first stage of UKR new offensive. They attract RU reserves and test new tactics. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

So, it is possible that Kurk battle is not raid or land grab. It might be first stage of UKR new offensive. They attract RU reserves and test new tactics. 

I am not sure Ukraine has the manpower to pull off something larger.  I also think Russia has enough manpower and defenses to stop a major offensive with whatever Ukraine has.  Especially if it is relying upon well disciplined, novel tactical units.  History has shown those never scale up very easily/quickly.

One thing I am sure about is that this raid is intended to be more than just a dash across the border operation.  For sure they are testing out new tactics.  Whether these "ranger" units actually exist in reality (not just RU Nat minds) is yet to be seen, however I am sure that Ukraine is doing something very different than what they have done in the past.  And they are doing at reasonable tactical scale (i.e. it is not just one team of 4 dudes doing something different).

The video of Russian successes against Ukrainian vehicles is the usual mix of confusing information that is likely partly intended to deceive viewers into thinking they are having more success than they are.  I didn't rewatch carefully enough to say for sure, but some hits were against unknown targets and at least one against a BMP-2.  Some of them are also impossible to geolocate.  So there's that.

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am not sure Ukraine has the manpower to pull off something larger.  I also think Russia has enough manpower and defenses to stop a major offensive with whatever Ukraine has.  

I am not so sure. There are persistent rumors on RU side that UKR do have significant reserves (that's why there are so few units on UKR front line). There are also persistent RU Nat reports that RU manpower is a lot smaller than it appears. They are in acute manpower shortage right now (for example VKS regiment). 

[FancyCat]

Rob Lee reposted it so assuming he finds the mapping to be semi-accurate.

Quote

A must-bookmark: a brilliant and constantly updated interactive Google map of the Kursk offensive by my colleague @legal0ve  svoboda.org/a/33069581.html

 

[FancyCat]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

I am not so sure. There are persistent rumors on RU side that UKR do have significant reserves (that's why there are so few units on UKR front line). There are also persistent RU Nat reports that RU manpower is a lot smaller than it appears. They are in acute manpower shortage right now (for example VKS regiment). 

They are currently in dooming mode, and are hunting for blame. With the blackout of UKR sources, and Russia clearly caught off guard, I think caution about what RUS side is saying is best for now.

[Grigb]

UKR born RU Nat posts comment from UKR channel

Quote

the night and morning were hard

- the enemy is bringing up reserves, which are closely monitored by our troops and destroyed if possible

- the deployment of enemy units occurs with a significant delay, because planning/preparation of the our operation was not detected

- N number of KM was covered

- the enemy pleases himself with the idea that it is our recon and sabotage groups are operating in the depths of their territory, and not regular forces that are carrying out planned actions (let them think so)

- the main battles are still ahead

- the next 2 days will be crucial

- the Russian occupiers have not yet made the right decisions, because panic and disorganization in their ranks continue

- the exchange fund [POWs] is constantly increases

 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

They are currently in dooming mode, and are hunting for blame. With the blackout of UKR sources, and Russia clearly caught off guard, I think caution about what RUS side is saying is best for now.

What I said (significant UKR reserves and acute RU manpower shortage) was reported numerous times before Kursk battle.

[Raskol]

Something new this war - Russian war refugees

 

 

[Grigb]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Rob Lee reposted it so assuming he finds the mapping to be semi-accurate.

 

My Quick Draft (work in progress)

• Yellow sometimes means presence of UKR troops not the actual battle for the settlement
• RU claim UKR are advancing toward Rylsk and Lgov
• It seems there is ongoing fighting at Korenevo and in the area of Anastas'evka but not further (or UKR forward units are really stealthy)

[FancyCat]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:24 PM, Vanir Ausf B said:

Time will tell, but not everyone is sold on the idea.

 

Tatarigami has updated with thread acknowledging the potential of this being not a foolish mistake but is cautious, as anyone should be.

 

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

My Quick Draft (work in progress)

• Yellow sometimes means presence of UKR troops not the actual battle for the settlement
• RU claim UKR are advancing toward Rylsk and Lgov
• It seems there is ongoing fighting at Korenevo and in the area of Anastas'evka but not further (or UKR forward units are really stealthy)

RU claim UKR are fighting at Kromskie Byki. It is next village after Anastas'evka on the road to Lgov (2 km north)

Edited August 8 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RU Sudzha locals - RU troops did not stop anyone (implying Sudzha was abandoned without fight).

[Grigb]

RU Nat comment

Quote

If we do not knock out the enemy from our territory within a week, then this will mean the transition of fighting in this area to the stage of static confrontation, as for example now in Volchansk and other sectors of the front. And this is extremely bad. And given that the entire district center is occupied by the AFU, this is very bad and will greatly affect confidence in the [RU] authorities, which the enemy resources of the IPSO will immediately rush to take advantage of. Now we need to admit to everyone that the situation is extremely difficult and we need to stop saying nonsense about "everything is fine", roll up our sleeves and finally start working.

Second day of UKR operation - RU military still not working.

[Grigb]

RU mil reporter Kotenok

Quote

According to my information, the enemy has begun to erect fortifications (they began to dig trenches, dugouts and caponiers for equipment in full height) on the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region.

In particular, platoon/company strongpoints for small groups of the AFU with 2-3 armored vehicles are being deployed in the area of the Sudzha district center. The manpower of the Ukronazis is located in residential buildings, where positions and temporary accommodations of personnel are being prepared.

The enemy continues to transfer IFVs, armored personnel carriers, tanks and armored vehicles, including those manufactured by the United States, to the territory of the Russian Federation from the adjacent territory.

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU mil reporter Kotenok

 

I'm sure at this point even pretending to make fortifications is worth it because it will cause Russia to really freak out.

If Ukraine really dug in (which I'm not convinced is possible, given the timeframe and logistics), and Russia only managed to push them out on their usual meatwave timelines of one completely destroyed village per month, that would be not good for the regime.

[Beleg85]

Naturally:

Meltdown in Russian TV start to look like something didn't see from autumn 2022; as always, lag behind "wut tu fink" directed from Kremlin spin doctors who overslept events creates this hilarious state where stiff, offficial propaganda messages is smashed head-on with reality. This in turn creates additional anxiety on behalf of part of population who actively follow this war.  Simonian pray publically while exposing her decolletage (not the first time btw.) and Korotchenko lament how it is even possible to see German vehicles in Kursk 80 years after.

Whatever this attack is and how it ends (I also have serious doubts it is proper offensive), it is already being success on propaganda front. A pitty those damn Olympics cover it in global media. And yeah, headlines do not win wars, but it can sow doubt in regimes.

Edited August 8 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2024

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2

 

ISW only updates once a day, But last evenings is still worth your time.

Separately, I would like to renew a previous question. Assuming Ukraine in fact has control of this gas junction at Suzdha, what can they do with it? I mean obviously they could blow it up, but can they do anything else? Shift gas to Ukraine and a away from whaterver portion of Russia this thing serves? 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Honestly I think this is the culmination of Russian arrogance when it came to their border policy with Ukraine after the invasion. They have been able to concentrate the vast majority of their forces in Ukraine, thinking that the Ukrainians would either never attack Russia or be allowed to. This has allowed them to focus on attacking in Ukraine while pretty much leaving the border defended at a minimum. 

This has until now worked really well for the Russians, because the Ukrainians cannot adopt the same policy at least to the same extent due to the potential threat of attacks aimed at Kyiv or other critical areas. 

Then for whatever reason the Russians decided to ruin all of that and make a run for Kharkiv again, allowing a loosening of restrictions on the border as a red line. The raids prior seemed to confirm to the Russians that attacks by Ukraine in return would be fleeting and so they continued to be disgustingly arrogant about the needs to defend their own borders. Now we have a far more extensive operation that has utterly discombobulated the Russians and they seem entirely unsure of what the hell is going on. Its becoming clear they never expected this and their top down system is struggling to respond.  The fact they were throwing Iskanders onto MRAPs tells me they are actually desperate here. 

Propaganda wise its a massive win, and so far it seems the Ukrainians are performing an excellent operation with regards to opsec. The aim might be unclear to us but I would not be surprised if this is meant to finally force the Russians to deploy proper units in strength across the border to prevent this happening in the future...and weaken their forces in Ukraine in consequence. They simply -cannot- allow Ukrainians to remain on their own land, which I expect the Ukrainians are well aware of. Of course the Russians could continue to respond this poorly, in which case domestically the Russian position becomes hilariously embarrassing.

The Russian population has been told for years now how the Ukrainians have nothing left, that victory was on the verge as the AFU would collapse soon. Now Russia has lost potentially near 300 square KM of territory within days and according to Russian sources units in the area are receiving what could best be described as an utter drubbing. This is not going to go down well in internal Russian circles. 

Overall this has been an excellent display of the potency of mobile operations when properly conducted (so far) as well as the operational energy of well equipped and motivated Ukrainians. I certainly hope they continue to perform in this way. Especially with regards of not telling anyone when they do it. The difference between this and the summer counter offensive is night and day. 

Edited August 8 by ArmouredTopHat

[hcrof]

9 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Honestly I think this is the culmination of Russian arrogance when it came to their border policy with Ukraine after the invasion. They have been able to concentrate the vast majority of their forces in Ukraine, thinking that the Ukrainians would either never attack Russia or be allowed to. This has allowed them to focus on attacking in Ukraine while pretty much leaving the border defended at a minimum. 

This has until now worked really well for the Russians, because the Ukrainians cannot adopt the same policy at least to the same extent due to the potential threat of attacks aimed at Kyiv or other critical areas. 

Then for whatever reason the Russians decided to ruin all of that and make a run for Kharkiv again, allowing a loosening of restrictions on the border as a red line. The raids prior seemed to confirm to the Russians that attacks by Ukraine in return would be fleeting and so they continued to be disgustingly arrogant about the needs to defend their own borders. Now we have a far more extensive operation that has utterly discombobulated the Russians and they seem entirely unsure of what the hell is going on. Its becoming clear they never expected this and their top down system is struggling to respond.  The fact they were throwing Iskanders onto MRAPs tells me they are actually desperate here. 

Propaganda wise its a massive win, and so far it seems the Ukrainians are performing an excellent operation with regards to opsec. The aim might be unclear to us but I would not be surprised if this is meant to finally force the Russians to deploy proper units in strength across the border to prevent this happening in the future...and weaken their forces in Ukraine in consequence. They simply -cannot- allow Ukrainians to remain on their own land, which I expect the Ukrainians are well aware of. Of course the Russians could continue to respond this poorly, in which case domestically the Russian position becomes hilariously embarrassing.

The Russian population has been told for years now how the Ukrainians have nothing left, that victory was on the verge as the AFU would collapse soon. Now Russia has lost potentially near 300 square KM of territory within days and according to Russian sources units in the area are receiving what could best be described as an utter drubbing. This is not going to go down well in internal Russian circles. 

Overall this has been an excellent display of the potency of mobile operations when properly conducted (so far) as well as the operational energy of well equipped and motivated Ukrainians. I certainly hope they continue to perform in this way. Especially with regards of not telling anyone when they do it. The difference between this and the summer counter offensive is night and day. 

Agreed on all point except the mobile operations part - while mobility has been vital to pull this off, I'm not sure what has been achieved so far counts as mobile operations - 15km (ish) in 2 days is still effectively walking pace. 

I would love to see why the Ukrainians didn't go further but I suspect caution played a big part.

[danfrodo]

I had travel day yesterday and there were 6 pages to catch up on, my oh my, busy day.  

We don't know much right now about UKR bigger picture plan with this Kursk incursion, but one thing I think UKR could count on was how RU would respond.  That might tell us something.  If RU behaves in knee-jerk panic like expected, then they'll strip men & resources & AD & other stuff from all over the place and send it down the obvious roads leading to this area.  

I suspect UKR plans, minimally, are to catch a lot of RU assets driving down roads in an area of lower EW and AD defences where those reinforcements can be relatively easily ambushed by drones & Himars and whatever is available.  Hopefully traffic jams of long columns build up before RU command can get control of it.  It's an old trick to spring ambush then ambush the rescuers.

[Grigb]

RU started to dispute that UKR advanced that far. They claim it is just UKR recon sabotage groups and main UKR force did not advance that far. Accordingly I marked all settlements that RU more or less do not dispute as Blue. This is can be considered as conservative RU point of view.

Second, one RU Nat reminded as that we can use Yandex Maps (RU main analog to Google Maps) to watch were RU traffic disappears. It is obviously not a very reliable tool but it is useful. I marked it with black lines.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

15 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Agreed on all point except the mobile operations part - while mobility has been vital to pull this off, I'm not sure what has been achieved so far counts as mobile operations - 15km (ish) in 2 days is still effectively walking pace. 

I would love to see why the Ukrainians didn't go further but I suspect caution played a big part.

From the limited footage we have seen, the AFU seem to be using a mix of MRAPs and IFVs to move around, I doubt they are making their troops walk everywhere. Sure its possible but I cant think of many infantrymen who would appreciate going into firefights after spending the whole day jogging into Russia. The aim overall seems to be to strike hard and fast.

We will probably get a clearer picture as time goes on.