How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, womble said:

They really don't like being surrounded, do they?

 

These are just rumors from one milblogger TG. Maybe they will withdraw from Urozhaine, but Robotyne area still fill itself enough strong despite UKR outflanking.

[Teufel]

Tom Cooper weighs in the progress of last couple of days.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-28-july-2023-dirt-and

[Haiduk]

Soldier of 7th battalion "Arey" of Volunteer Ukrainain Army (VUC has several units, subordinated to different branches, "Arey" is a part of 129th TD brigade of Kryvyi Rih city) in liberated Staromajorske

 

[Teufel]

This has maybe been shared before but if not or as refresher. Map that allows filtering of various data from Ukraine. Among them Russian forces concentrations in given time periods from September 2022 and forward. Found it quite interesting but can’t guarantee accuracy or data integrity. Just wanted to share in case someone else wants to give it try.

https://eyesonrussia.org/

Edit: maps shows nothing unless data is selected top right hand corner.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

Fresh of the presses as of yesterday’s movements.

[Teufel]

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Germans in WW2 did seem quite relaxed about this. Or more specifically, Hitler was and everybody else had to go along.

I think it often happened because Hitler was hell bent on holding locations and other times it was an opportunity to make the Russians overextend themselves.

But usually the Germans went to great lengths to either try to relieve the encircled units or somehow allow them to get out of the encirclement (often with great loss of men and material, I think), so I don't think "relaxed" is really fitting here.

Coming back to the current conflict, I guess it is way easier to see an encirclement coming, given modern ISR and it is probably also more difficult to filter through the lines unobserved once they are closed as it was often possible in WW2. Although the reduced troop densities might mitigate that.

Edit: Btw. keep in mind that encircling the enemy is kind of the purpose and the culmination of operational maneuvering in the Russian book. From experience on both sides and doctrine wise.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Butschi

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, womble said:

I think the point is that the prospect of surrounding doesn't have to be quite as clearly visible to the Russians as it might need to be for other forces before "Run Away!" becomes the order of the day.

Bingo   I was being a bit snarky about Russian motivation, but you got my point a bit better than others.  I will restate...

Excepting special forces (paratroopers included), all military forces put a heavy emphasis on NOT being surrounded either offensively or defensively.  This is sensible because everything becomes so much more difficult when there aren't clear lines of communication and supply.  Having said that, there are times when taking those risks are worth taking.  Deep penetrations of enemy lines (offensive) and "hedgehog" positions (defensive) are the usual ones to think about.

 

6 hours ago, womble said:

Whether that's because of their lack of confidence in being relieved before being overrun or lack of confidence in being able to withdraw in an organised manner under any greater levels of pressure, or their lack of confidence in their flanks actually holding, is arguable. I don't think we can argue that it's "cowardice", just a greater level of "operational prudence".

I think this is the core of the reason for Russia's lack of confidence in fighting from cut off positions.  At the start of the war we saw this play out in the form of soldiers routinely abandoning their equipment and going back on foot to Russian territory.  I see no reason to suggest that Russian soldiers have more confidence now than they did then.

Let's face it, Russian forces shouldn't have any confidence that they can survive being cut off, so it is "operational prudent" to avoid it.  The ability to effectively fight while cut off requires just about everything that Russia lacks.  I think every level understands this.

If we look at the classic "pocket battles" on the Eastern Front in WW2, German units maintained miniature logistics services within the cut off forces.  Supply, medical services, maintenance, etc. were all conducted, as best they could, within the isolated area.  They were also able to move towards friendly positions, either in part or sometimes in full.  Germans had faith in their abilities and that there was someone trying to get to or meet up with them.

Does anybody think Russian officers, not to mention the rank and file soldier, have any reason to be confident in their ability to duplicate this sort of thing?  Cripes, they can barely perform these critical functions even when they are NOT cut off.

So, higher command has two choices when a force is looking like it might be cut off:

1.  Withdraw it before it is too late (preemptive withdrawal)

2.  Write them off as a total loss

We have seen Russia have no problem losing small groups of forces, especially Storm-Z guys, but nothing larger than say platoon strength.  Which is smart because I think we can all guess what the morale impact would be if large numbers of Russian soldiers surrendered en mas simply because they were cut off.

6 hours ago, womble said:

Which makes me think that Bakhmut might currently be an exception to the general Russian rule. We've seen reports that the place is now surrounded (at least by fires) by UKR, and still the holding RUS haven't been withdrawn.

I do not think this is an exception.  Kherson was the same situation and they fought long and hard there.  It was only when they sensed that they could not hold the ground that they pulled out.  Bakhmut is not at that stage yet.

 

In conclusion, Russian forces are likely to proactively withdraw if they sense that their lines of retreat are at risk of being cut off.  It doesn't matter if the force is 100 or 1,000 or even 10,000... they will yield ground instead of fighting for it.  Ukraine need only threaten to cut the lines of retreat to get this sort of result.  

This predilection for yielding at risk positions instead of fighting for them is NOT the norm in large scale warfare.  Ukraine certainly showed its willingness to be cut off and still fight (Mariupol being only the biggest example, not the only one).  Western forces spend considerable time and resources to enable units to fight isolated if necessary.  So while it is true that nobody "likes" being surrounded, Russia seems to be outright paranoid about avoiding it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Teufel said:

Tom Cooper weighs in the progress of last couple of days.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-28-july-2023-dirt-and

The possibility that Ukraine's ability to launch Storm Shadows is a vivid reminder of what I was saying many pages ago when someone asked about how relevant ATACMS are.  At the very least ATACMS provide redundancy in the event of degraded ability to put the few modified SU-24s into the air.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Ukraine has launched two S-200 missiles converted for ground strikes. Both were intercepted in Rostov oblast:

- one over Azov town

- other one was intercepted over Taganrog city in 5 km from airport, where also deployed A-50 and several Tu-95 bombers (probably for maintenance), this is not their home base. Reportedly fragments of missile hit the area near city tax office, 17 citizens were wounded, 9 of them are hospitalized.

Well... Why you shooting down missiles so unprofessionally directly over the city? If you don't touch it, the missile would peacefully hit military target... This is can be the game for both %) 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

A few times a week now something comes up re: Belarus:

https://www.barrons.com/news/poland-lithuania-mull-shutting-belarus-border-over-wagner-be4c03e0

Poland and Lithuania are considering closing their respective borders with Belarus amid concerns over the presence there of the Wagner mercenary group, a Lithuanian deputy interior minister said on Friday.

"The considerations are real. The possibility of closing the border exists," Arnoldas Abramavicius told reporters.

Belarus has been hosting Wagner fighters following their short-lived rebellion against Russia's top military brass.

Lithuania repeatedly warned its Western allies that Wagner mercenaries could disguise themselves as asylum seekers trying to cross Belarus's borders with EU member states, or stage provocations involving refugees.

"It could be some groups of refugees, irregular migrants being transferred in order to cause some kind of unrest," Abramavicius said.

Poland's ruling party chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski said on Friday that Wagner fighters "are not in Belarus for fun".

"They are there to create various types of crises, primarily directed against Poland," Kaczynski said, adding that Poland has been building up its defence capabilities "so that these provocations, these activities, fail".

[dan/california]

was for another thread

Edited July 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Two videos from different angles with wiping out of UKR armored company probably of 118th mech.brigade on BMP-1 2-3 days ago. I think, survived sodiers have to make something bad with their battalion commander, who gave this stupid order for suicidal attack without recon.

Videos from pro-Russian account, likely Serbian. 

 

 

[Teufel]

 

Some accuracy right there!

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Teufel said:

 

Some accuracy right there!

Novopetrykivka is in 18 km SE from Staromajorske, liberated yesterday. In comments also meant, on 14th of June very close to this location - in nearby tree-line were destroyed two other 2S19

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Teufel said:

Russian and Ukrainian aren't enough? We have to add french to mix, just ti finish melting my brain?

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Two videos from different angles with wiping out of UKR armored company probably of 118th mech.brigade on BMP-1 2-3 days ago. I think, survived sodiers have to make something bad with their battalion commander, who gave this stupid order for suicidal attack without recon.

Videos from pro-Russian account, likely Serbian. 

 

 

Bleep me that sucks, it has a real charge of the light brigade vibe. It is also more proof of the most fundamental tenet if modern warfare, mistakes are BAD.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Russian and Ukrainian aren't enough? We have to add french to mix, just ti finish melting my brain?

This guy just draws very nice maps  

[kevinkin]

All those brewing AFVs reminded me of the time CM introduced that graphic (CMAK or BB) all those years ago. If I recall, screenshots were withheld until the final release went out. Was a big surprise to players. Cool for a wargame; horrible for a real life friend of the west. 

Tactically, when a company sized unit gets hit that hard, does the parent battalion have to halt operations until the situation is understood and medical service come in under protection of the rest of the parent formation? 

[danfrodo]

Nice amount of RU losses reported above, allegedly 30 arty systems.  That's huge.  And it looks like UKR making some noise in the far west of the line toward Luhove, drawing in aggressive RU response which hopefully means RU losing men & material out in the open.  A lot easier than digging them out of holes w grenades. 

And today, like every day, I ask "how brittle is RU???"

[Bearstronaut]

55 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

A few times a week now something comes up re: Belarus:

https://www.barrons.com/news/poland-lithuania-mull-shutting-belarus-border-over-wagner-be4c03e0

Poland and Lithuania are considering closing their respective borders with Belarus amid concerns over the presence there of the Wagner mercenary group, a Lithuanian deputy interior minister said on Friday.

"The considerations are real. The possibility of closing the border exists," Arnoldas Abramavicius told reporters.

Belarus has been hosting Wagner fighters following their short-lived rebellion against Russia's top military brass.

Lithuania repeatedly warned its Western allies that Wagner mercenaries could disguise themselves as asylum seekers trying to cross Belarus's borders with EU member states, or stage provocations involving refugees.

"It could be some groups of refugees, irregular migrants being transferred in order to cause some kind of unrest," Abramavicius said.

Poland's ruling party chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski said on Friday that Wagner fighters "are not in Belarus for fun".

"They are there to create various types of crises, primarily directed against Poland," Kaczynski said, adding that Poland has been building up its defence capabilities "so that these provocations, these activities, fail".

I fail to see an upside for Wagner in ****ing around in Poland. They would do a little bit of damage and then get utterly annihilated by Polish and US QRF while the Russian government says "they are terrorists that we have no control over" and washes their hands of the situation. 

[FancyCat]

Mariupol reminded me of Chernihiv, so point taken, and querying units most likely to accept being encircled and besieged and not falter, Ukrainians do have the credentials in that regard so it’s not too unjust to knock Russians for not being willing in the same way.

[FancyCat]

Just now, Bearstronaut said:

I fail to see an upside for Wagner in ****ing around in Poland. They would do a little bit of damage and then get utterly annihilated by Polish and US QRF while the Russian government says "they are terrorists that we have no control over" and washes their hands of the situation. 

The aftermath of the Wagner mutiny saw the admission of Wagner being controlled, run, owned by the Russian state, including prior to the invasion. One can no longer deny Wagner is independent of the Russian government.

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Bearstronaut said:

I fail to see an upside for Wagner in ****ing around in Poland

They would have to **** around behind plausible deniability. But the news that Poland and Lithuania might take prudent steps just means NATO is watching. 

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1684794089659625472

Says 60 out of  500 man battalion left alive.

[dan/california]