How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Episode, when Russian tank has destroyed UKR Kirpi in Makarivka (V.Novosilka salient) at the end of June. Likely HE shell was used

https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1673263959602765825

And aftermath in close view, filmed some later. The second Kirpi was damaged with explosion of destroyed vehicle. There were killed and wounded in this episode. 

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1683888227453743117

[Haiduk]

Examples of "Shark" UAV work for artillery targeting. These UKR-developed systems got very excited feedback of drone pilots. First version of Shark had enough problems, but second revision got very good device. It has 80 km of range and very good optic with 30x optical superzoom, also it more stable against EW. Depending on missions it can be equipped with thermal camera. Though it price still large for such type of equipment. Alas, these drones have been ordering only by charity funds. 

Next Russian Buk turned out to firework, after "Shark" detected it position. Husarka village is in 18 km SE from Polohy town and about in 30 kn from frontline  

 

Russian EW asset R-330 Zhytel' was hit, though with second shell

 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3470064/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

Today’s commitment in security assistance, valued at up to $400 million, includes additional air defense munitions, artillery and other ammunition, armored vehicles, anti-armor weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package include:

1.           Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
2.           Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
3.           Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
4.           155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
5.           120mm and 60mm mortar rounds;
6.           32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
7.           Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
8.           Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
9.           Hornet Unmanned Aerial Systems;
10.         Hydra-70 aircraft rockets;
11.         Tactical air navigation systems;
12.         Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
13.         Over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
14.         Night vision devices and thermal imagery systems; and
15.         Spare parts, training munitions, and other field equipment.

 

[Haiduk]

I think no need to redraw Kupiansk map, because here is exellent map (its can be zoomed):

Kupiansk direction subgroup:

Borova direction subgroups.

For yesterday Russian rush with two tank regiments from Dzherel'ne - Raihorodka section got results - Russians pushed off UKR troops west along the road Svatove-Borova and occupied villages Nadiya and Serhiivka on westren bank of Zherebets river. Groupment of 423rd MRR and 15th MRBr developed own success and gained more ground, taking Novoyehorivka village. 

More fresh DeepState map shows this more worse situation. Red dotted lines - changes issued today (likely this happened 1-2 days ago). Mashovets will write about Kupiansk tomorrow. Red solid line - frontline before Russian offwnsive. 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

Beaver drones, Shark drones, I am eagerly waiting for Polecat drones.

[Haiduk]

Russian "Pion" (eng. "peony") has faded %). Roty village -  16 km SE from Bakhmut and 21 km from frontline

 

[Offshoot]

A cinematic portrait of some of the members of the 11th Special Brigade of the Army Aviation "Kherson" (they flew to Azovstal and Snake Island). It's light on military info but if nothing else is another demonstration of Ukraine's mastery of the info-space.

 

Quote

The first episode of «CHERUBS» features the heroes of the 11th Special Brigade of the Army Aviation «Kherson». They were defending Kyiv, fought fierce battles in Irpin, carried out missions at Azovstal, and participated in the operation to liberate Snake Island. In February 2022, russia had many more modern combat aircraft, while Ukrainian pilots were doing the impossible in the sky with forty-year-old planes. The 11th Separate Brigade defended the southern direction, with only 5 helicopters and 3 planes, halting enemy columns. It was only thanks to the efforts of Ukraine's defenders that they managed to protect our sky and push the enemy aviation out of our country's airspace.

 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Offshoot

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Beaver drones, Shark drones, I am eagerly waiting for Polecat drones.

That will “stink!”

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CvHM46forYy/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ%3D%3D

25 km range fixed wing drone for $3000, that is how you win the war.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian EW asset R-330 Zhytel' was hit, though with second shell

Whenever I see one of these things hit, I wonder how many more Russia has in service.  These things are very expensive and are higher level assets.  Oryx lists the following EW systems lost:

Jammers And Deception Systems (48, of which destroyed: 36, damaged: 5, captured: 7)

I've not seen any reporting on how many Ukraine still has to worry about.  I would guess the numbers are in the low dozens for something like the R-330, mostly because it's been around for 25+ years.

Steve

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I think no need to redraw Kupiansk map, because here is exellent map (its can be zoomed):

Kupiansk direction subgroup:

Borova direction subgroups.

For yesterday Russian rush with two tank regiments from Dzherel'ne - Raihorodka section got results - Russians pushed off UKR troops west along the road Svatove-Borova and occupied villages Nadiya and Serhiivka on westren bank of Zherebets river. Groupment of 423rd MRR and 15th MRBr developed own success and gained more ground, taking Novoyehorivka village. 

More fresh DeepState map shows this more worse situation. Red dotted lines - changes issued today (likely this happened 1-2 days ago). Mashovets will write about Kupiansk tomorrow. Red solid line - frontline before Russian offwnsive. 

 

 

Haiduk bringing the good stuff today.  Thanks for all the excellent, informative posts!! 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2023

Lukashenko likely seeks to leverage his power over the Wagner Group to gain concessions from Putin. A Russian insider source claimed that the Wagner Group was the most important topic during the Putin-Lukashenko meeting, and that Lukashenko sought more economic assistance to Belarus through Union State programs.[4] The insider source also claimed that Putin wanted Belarus to be more involved in the war in Ukraine and rejected Lukashenko’s compromise offer to have Belarusian forces conduct a show of force on Belarus’ border with Ukraine.[5]  Lukashenko was likely trying to leverage Putin’s concern over the Wagner Group throughout the entire visit to Russia to gain favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations while deflecting Putin’s demands for closer integration into the Union State and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

 

Lukashenko seems to think having Wagner in Belarus is real card to play. I will laugh to the point of bodily harm if Prig launches a successful  coup against him, after barely failing to depose Putin.

Edit: For triple points, prig could then hit the EU up for a five billion dollar bribe. Turn the country over to the people who actually won the last election, and retire to a heavily guarded compound in the luxury country of his choice. He would become the most successful mercenary since a condottiere made himself the Duke of Milan ~500 years ago.

It wouldn't be much crazier than the way this war has worked out so far.

Edited July 26, 2023 by dan/california

[G.I. Joe]

6 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Beaver drones, Shark drones, I am eagerly waiting for Polecat drones.

I have the distinct feeling that compiling Unmanned Aircraft Systems of the Russo-Ukrainian War could become a fairly monumental undertaking for some ambitious aviation historian in the not too distant future.

[Sojourner]

Add to that - rescue drones.

"The aerial reconnaissance of the Kara-Dag National Guard Brigade found injured comrades-in-arms from a tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia front and helped them with water, medicines and a tourniquet by using drones, and indicated the correct route for evacuation."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/25/7412892/

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Lukashenko seems to think having Wagner in Belarus is real card to play. I will laugh to the point of bodily harm if Prig launches a successful  coup against him, after barely failing to depose Putin.

Maybe that's what Prig was actually promised -- Belarus.  I first thought this as a joke, now I wonder...

[dan/california]

 

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe that's what Prig was actually promised -- Belarus.  I first thought this as a joke, now I wonder...

The really interesting question is was he promised it by Lukashenko? Or Putin?

[danfrodo]

Summary here for today, w a swipe at that WSJ article.  At the end is a video I hadn't seen of RU soldiers refusing to surrender then flushed out by tank that was brought forward.  They run across the field but video stops just as they come under fire from UKR troops from other side of field.  UKR HQ watching via drone & directing things quips "well now we now that field isn't mined"

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/25/2183261/-Ukraine-Update-One-town-south-of-Bakhmut-is-liberated-and-another-is-almost-there

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by danfrodo

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Add to that - rescue drones.

"The aerial reconnaissance of the Kara-Dag National Guard Brigade found injured comrades-in-arms from a tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia front and helped them with water, medicines and a tourniquet by using drones, and indicated the correct route for evacuation."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/25/7412892/

Britain is sending their heavier drones, ones that can carry wounded back.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Britain is sending their heavier drones, ones that can carry wounded back.

That is really great news.  Much higher survival rate plus much less burden on the fighters, so less delay.  I hope they are sending a lot of them.

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Summary here for today, w a swipe at that WSJ article.  At the end is a video I hadn't seen of RU soldiers refusing to surrender then flushed out by tank that was brought forward.  They run across the field but video stops just as they come under fire from UKR troops from other side of field.  UKR HQ watching via drone & directing things quips "well now we now that field isn't mined"

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/25/2183261/-Ukraine-Update-One-town-south-of-Bakhmut-is-liberated-and-another-is-almost-there

 

It is a truly great video.

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

That is really great news.  Much higher survival rate plus much less burden on the fighters, so less delay.  I hope they are sending a lot of them.

Yeah one thing I imagine will be standard on all unmanned future vehicles of a certain size is provision for rescuing wounded/damaged soliders/robots. IE a built in stretcher provision, along with tow hooks, grapples etc.

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

Ukrainian naval drone:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/107200
 

Quote

At the IDEF 2023 exhibition in Istanbul, a new Ukrainian maritime drone MAGURA V5 was presented.

It is designed for reconnaissance, patrolling, search and rescue operations, mine countermeasures, as well as protection of the naval fleet and combat missions.

Its characteristics:

Height above the waterline: 500 mm;
Cruising speed: 22 knots;
Maximum speed: 42 knots;
Range: 450 nautical miles (about 833 km);
Payload: 320 kg;
Communication: Mesh radio with aerial repeater or satellite communication.

 

[Offshoot]

Everyone Wants Ukraine’s Battlefield Data - https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-government-battlefield-data/

Quote

Global companies are offering free products to get access to live combat data. The Ukrainian government wants to keep this resource for its own emerging defense industry.

 

[Kinophile]

 

Looking for more info on this:

Quote

The Gepard systems, developed in the 1980s, have faced maintenance issues, but German engineers have come up with a clever solution to mitigate the ammunition shortage. They have developed a conversion process that allows the use of existing 35mm ammunition, originally intended for infantry combat vehicles, to be adapted for the Gepard anti-aircraft systems