How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Yeah, really famous historical person, not fully appreciated by Ukrainain history, so, alas he is not well-known in masses. Glorious knight age of Ukrianian lands in Grand Duchy of Lithuania still blank spot for many Ukrainans. This is because Soviet tradition, which partially transfered into Ukrainain historical science of 90th. When I studied in school in Soviet times, and we had lessons of history of Ukraine (thin book in comparison with a book of history of USSR) that developments were: Kyivan Rus' - > Mongol invasion -> Zaporozhian Sich. Whole age after Mongol invasion - about 300 years were just thrown out and were contained in several sentences in style "then Ukrainain lands grabbed Lithuanian feodals, which opressed peasants and then Ukraine was grabbed by Polish magnats". Ukraine and Belarus in GDL/PLC age just breaks Soviet historian conceptions about "leading role of Moscow and gathering of primordial Russian lands" and "declined wild lands, which could rise only after reunion with Russia" 

Ukrianian history also relativly long time didn't consider this age as "our", just because Ukraine wasn't formal sovereign state in that time. But soon great books of our medievist Natalia Yakovenko appeared about this period, about Ukrainian nobles in service of PLC, so we could discover more this terra incognita. Interesting that in 2010 pro-Russian fractions in Parliament blocked the bill of 600-year anniversary celebration of Grunwald battle, because "this wasn't Ukrainian history" %) 

To supplement- he was a Ruthenian warlord serving Lithunian king sitting on Polish throne, whose best-known victory was against Muscovite army led by turncoat of beforementioned king, and he is today most cherished by patriotic Belarussians. Yup, history of those lands is more complicated and multinational than splitting the bill after Erasmus meeting.

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

@Haiduk you hear anything on this topic?

Outskirts of Bakhmut littered with corpses of Russians, and collaborators are fleeing to Russia – Ukrainian official (yahoo.com)

Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), has said that the outskirts of Bakhmut are littered with corpses of Russian invaders, and no one takes them away.

In the lastets published photo, hard to tell which are corpses and which debris or holes with snow. Most of them is suspiciously regularly placed. Reportedly work of 67th brigade.

https://censor.net/ua/news/3405151/63_tila_likvidovanyh_rosiyiskyh_okupantiv_pislya_boyu_z_voyinamy_67yi_ombr_foto

Edited March 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Hard to tell which are corpses and which debris or holes with snow. Most of them is suspiciously regularly placed.

Sorry I was referring to the folks heading back to Russia.

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

Sorry I was referring to the folks heading back to Russia.

Oh yeah, you are right, I thought you were talking about latest photo of field supposedly littered with corpses.

56 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Defending from a trench whilst being fired upon.  I keep thinking someone should start mass producing those little one-eye pipe periscopes so these guys can see what's over the berm.

Seem to be very common problem judging by videos from this war, isn't it? So many times guys shoot at each other blank, not knowing they are several meters away.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

Fireworks galore...

 

 

[chrisl]

38 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Or even 4" PVC through the berm for observation and shooting or modern day sandbag crenelle. 

I find the lack of firing steps, firing positions, and crew served positions in a lot of these videos disturbing. Without good observation and control of approaches with fire, a trench is a grave. 

through the berm is a pretty narrow field of view if it's got any length.  But the same 4" PVC pipe could be turned into a periscope in a couple of minutes with a straight saw, a hole saw, and a couple of plastic mirrors.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

about Ukrainian nobles in service of PLC

It was more than that. Ukrainian nobles (plus those of the Grand Duchy) dominated the top elite of the PLC because they had bigger landholdings than those in the core Polish lands. The only (well, almost) nobles allowed the title of prince in PLC were from the Russian kniaz families descending from Rorik. And Michał Wiśniowiecki became the king, the first one elected from the local nobles 

[dan/california]

 

42 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am surprised we haven't seen some sort of camera/scope with a tablet or phone type display attached. Heck, you could get something pretty useful by duck taping a small drain camera to a rifle.

Quote

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2015/07/23/new-technology-will-link-night-vision-and-rifle-scope/

Various takes on piping a scopes image to a set of goggles have been floating around for a decade if not much longer. Given that Ukraine has proven again how useful it would be, I assume someone give it another go. The little bits to make it work get better all the time. 

There was also a interesting video/story where a Ukrainian had rigged up a vehicle turret in a trench with remote control. It seemed very successful. There are a zillion prototypes for versions of that, too. with and without mobility.

 Forgive the sci fi reference, but there is a ton of potential for a shoulder mount basically like this one. You could go prone in a slit trench with nothing but the gun showing.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Kind of an odd press conference.  "We're going to go on the offensive on the second tuesday of may, and kill you in Bakhmut in the meantime."  

The subtext has to be something closer to "we have a whole bunch of long range stuff from NATO that you can't even begin to comprehend.  Over the next two months we're going to destroy all your supplies and command infrastructure back to the Russian border.  On the second tuesday of may, anybody who isn't taking advantage of the firm ground by getting to the border can expect to be overrun. In the meantime, die a lot now"

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

The whole era needs a good historical novel or five. A ton of conflict and history that gets zero exposure in English, and apparently not enough in Ukrainian.

 

Not for lack of trying on the Polish side. Maybe a quarter of historical fiction books ever written in Polish would be about that era, including the 3 most popular ones. Cultural barrier does not let them permeate to the West, though, whereas the choice of bad guys limits the sales to the East. Maybe those about fighting Turks or Swedes could get exported.

[dan/california]

I think this is the third or fourth TOS-1 Ukraine has killed in a week. I think better ISR of some description is starting to be felt.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Not for lack of trying on the Polish side. Maybe a quarter of historical fiction books ever written in Polish would be about that era, including the 3 most popular ones. Cultural barrier does not let them permeate to the West, though, whereas the choice of bad guys limits the sales to the East. Maybe those about fighting Turks or Swedes could get exported.

Any decent translations?

 

[Offshoot]

4 hours ago, sross112 said:

How did the UK, France and Spain renegotiate their role in the world with themselves?

In addition to what others have said, the UK had a soft empire for quite a while after the real one faded away. At least they pretended they were still great and indulged in large quantities of nostalgia.

The King is still the head of state of 15 countries, as Town and Country dutifully reminds us - https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/g41501895/what-countries-does-king-charles-iii-reign-over/

Until the Australians upset the apple cart, the UK (England) got to remind all the oiks who was best at the Commonwealth games every 4 years - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Commonwealth_Games_medal_table

And even now the proms (an annual series of classical performances in London) concludes with rousing singalongs to Land of Hope and Glory and Rule, Britannia, despite discontent in some circles given the damage they did to the colonised countries and people.

Throw in Brexit with it's longings for a lost Britain and you could say that the UK is still renegotiating it's post-empire place in the world.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Offshoot

[Maciej Zwolinski]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Any decent translations?

I do not know about the quality, but a quick Google has netted this one:  https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Page:Henryk_Sienkiewicz_-_Potop_-_The_Deluge_(1898_translation_by_Jeremiah_Curtin)_-_Vol_1.djvu/31

This is my favourite of the XIX century classics, set out against the backdrop of the Northern Wars vs Swedes. The translation is contemporary, so it is fully in the public domain. There was a good film adaptation of it as well, also called the Deluge, made in the 1970s. It was an Oscar nominee even.

Unless it got screwed up in translation, it should read like  "The Three Musketeers". The same times,  similar ideas, similar style.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Maciej Zwolinski
poor reflexes

[Battlefront.com]

OK, put aside squirrel and long ago knights... we have ourselves a very interesting rumor.  Remember a couple of weeks ago there was some chatter in the press that Kadyrov was suffering from renal failure?  Remember last week a specialized medical plane flew from Nürnberg to Moscow and immediately back to Nürnberg?  Well, a Ukrainian reserve colonel is saying the two things are related and is stating that it was due to FSB poisoning.  Someone else reminded us that Navalny was flown to Germany when he was poisoned with Novichuk, though Germany would be the obvious pick for any sort of Russian medical emergency, so that could be coincidental.

Anyway, it's still very much in rumor territory, but if we don't see Kadyrov clowning around on social media soon I'm going to figure it is true.  That attention seeking clown wouldn't let a rumor like this go unchallenged.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/03/11/kadyrov-was-simply-removed/

Steve

[Offshoot]

Done don?

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Throw in Brexit with it's longings for a lost Britain and you could say that the UK is still renegotiating it's post-empire place in the world.

While living in London I had someone at a pub say something about us "disloyal colonists".  He didn't look like he was joking either.

But yes, the British (and other former empires) will likely always have some amount of lingering regrets about losing so much power, even though it was impossible to keep it.  The breakup of the British Empire was probably the most peaceful and positive fall of an Empire ever.  Even those who violently got rid of British rule enjoy good relations with the UK now.  The "Special Relationship" between the US and the UK is not the only example.

Contrast this with the Russian example.  Even when Russia agreed to areas becoming independent, it had no intentions of allowing it to ever happen in reality.  It would be like Britain signing the Statute of Westminster in 1931 and then invading it 20 years later.

Steve

[dan/california]

Now THAT is a rumor! I saw a photo of his son with Putin recently.

Will a monarchial succession succeed? If it doesn't does the FSB have a plan B? Sort of an inconvenient moment for a full scale war in the Caucasus. Georgia is already at the tipping point...

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Done don?

Done and gone, like a doner kebab. Now that's a way to dispose of a body!

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, put aside squirrel and long ago knights... we have ourselves a very interesting rumor.  Remember a couple of weeks ago there was some chatter in the press that Kadyrov was suffering from renal failure?  Remember last week a specialized medical plane flew from Nürnberg to Moscow and immediately back to Nürnberg?  Well, a Ukrainian reserve colonel is saying the two things are related and is stating that it was due to FSB poisoning.  Someone else reminded us that Navalny was flown to Germany when he was poisoned with Novichuk, though Germany would be the obvious pick for any sort of Russian medical emergency, so that could be coincidental.

Anyway, it's still very much in rumor territory, but if we don't see Kadyrov clowning around on social media soon I'm going to figure it is true.  That attention seeking clown wouldn't let a rumor like this go unchallenged.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/03/11/kadyrov-was-simply-removed/

Steve

Still would be rather cautious regarding these rumours- except some articles in dubious titles and info from Ukrianians (who are his enemies, obviously) there is no direct evidence this is true. I think we would see much more movement among Chechen emigrees, gossips are spreading among diaspora faster than wildfire. I mean Zakaiev announced and even gave details about his illness, but he is his personal arch-enemy and not the first time throwing such things into infosphere. Everybody knows Kadyrov is like Putin's unwanted child, so if fact of poisoning would turn true, no chance Tsar didn't know. Unless outside enemies are invloved.

https://jamestown.org/program/is-chechen-leader-kadyrov-preparing-to-pass-governorship-to-son/

We will ned to wait I guess, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11nzp7z/gore_warning_buryat_that_was_grievously_wounded/

 

Quote

Here I am, lying here. Two days ago we stormed a strongpoint. Half of my arm is torn off. I have wounds to both legs. One arm is unharmed. One leg has shrapnel wound, it's more or less bearable. ........ stopped our attack by mortars. Bastards couldn't evacuate me. I'd been crawling all day until I got to my people. Yesterday they couldn't evacuate me, and now I'm lying on the cold snow, and I have no ...... idea where the **** everyone is. I can't get a transmitter, I can't get cigarettes and water. That's how the ....... we fight the war here. .......... However, they gave me a sleeping bag. I wrapped myself up, but I can't turn on the other side. ....... I don't know how I'll be surviving, honey, but if I do, I'll get home. I guess, when I get to a hospital I'll call you. They ....... me up, bitches, ...... khokholmen. When we left, their mortars got us.

 

I blanked the profanity. Russia simply doesn't have a CASE EVAC system to speak of. This how you get one dead for every three casualties. I think the Union Army was better than this by 1863.

[Beleg85]

56 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I blanked the profanity. Russia simply doesn't have a CASE EVAC system to speak of. This how you get one dead for every three casualties. I think the Union Army was better than this by 1863.

They do try to evacuate when they can, but attacking is simply very difficult in these circumstances- it's no longer War on Terror, so for example forget about helis or "leave no bodies behind". Damian Duda, chief of medical group working now in Bakhmut, did quite interesting comparisions between both systems. Ukrainian one is also far from perfect, not every soldier can be 100% sure all the time everyone will start to move around him- but this is mainly due nature of this conflict, not something specifically Ukrainian or Russian. It also signficantly improved during this year, also at civilian front.

While Russians...well darwinistic attitude to life is rather widespread in this army, but casualties are also due to casualties- intense tactics used. Add drones (on both sides) who does not hesitate to bomb even wounded or under evacuation, or snipers specifically targeting ambulances. There was a video not long time ago from a drone that hunted some muscovite soldier with his foot being already completely torn off...gruesome sight. Generally many rules of civilized engagements seem to fall from window simply because how lethal and unforgiving is this war, both due to technology and hatred of participants. This conflict often more resembles Pacific War than NW Theatre in this regard.

Clip from crew of N.Stanko about drone group, several days ago:

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

I still have very strong impression that the Ukrainians are trying, and the Russians just aren't.

 

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I still have very strong impression that the Ukrainians are trying, and the Russians just aren't.

 

The Russians are too busy

New Russian army unit sent to find soldiers lost in chaos of faltering offensive (yahoo.com)

Quote

Meanwhile the Russian army has been forced to create a new unit to round up all the “lost” soldiers deserting, fleeing or struggling to find their teams.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

12 hours ago, akd said:

Interesting TERRA unit vid that shows them observing Pions firing HE-Frag clusters on Russian position. Also Ukrainian BMP-1s attacking same position at beginning and taking fire from RPGs and artillery:

 

Great stuff again thanks, these long sequences are priceless. This is the Pt2 denouement to the mech 'trench raid' we were puzzling over a while back.  Now we see the method in the madness of that risky maneuver.

Looks like the muzhiks did have, or brought up, some AT after all (taking a bite out of a BMP flank skirt), and a RU tank also responded.

...So if I'm interpreting this correctly (?), the mech platoon's purpose in that high risk foray in the open (with dismounts) was to threaten the Russian outpost line credibly enough to draw out their response teams. Then the platoon pulled back (popping smoke), so the bombardment (including CBUs) could tear them all up. Plus any RU counterbombardment would waste shells plastering empty ground.

18th century bear-baiting, in effect.

...Oh wait, it seems they're still actually doing it in Russia, for tourists [2004]. Quelle surprise.

Blech.

Anyone else have thoughts? (on the videos)

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Basically, Britain was tired of trying to stay on top and decided it was better to be happy than ruler of the world.  Well, that's my boiling down of things The point is that Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, The Netherlands, etc. all had to be humbled and pushed into economic distress multiple times before they finally decided that being a world power wasn't all that great after all.

If you note one common thing about all the previous empires that fell... the home country got trimmed down to what it started out as before imperial expansion.  A few territories here and there still under some degree of control, sure, but a shadow of the height of empire.  Russia has not gone through this phase.  Yet.

Russia hasn't been humbled enough.  This war is headed towards that end, but I think Russia needs to break apart before it will cease being an aggressive, negative influence on the world.

Steve

(Edit- Ninja'd by a Spaniard )

Y'all missed the basic difference that drove how a society adjusted (or didn't)  to its new situation - regular democratic changes in home government. The response was systematic based, not esoteric personal ideas of how societies respond. 

This allowed the original governing elite to be replaced, then their replacements swapped for people more focussed on Home,  ad infinitum.  That process or churn at the top allows a society to steadily shift and adjust,  responding (eventually) to new realities with new governance. 

A good example is France and its colonial Holdings ( @Taranis et al feel free to pile in here). France fought extremely fiercely to retain its empire but the inevitable change in government led to similar inevitability in its adjustment to reality,  and the eventual withdrawal from many overseas colonies. 

The malleability of democracy was in play, with Change being accepted by and operating on the society at large as Opportunity. 

But autocratic governments hate Change as a core principle. Change is unknowable in the final extant of its effects, making it a Threat. 

Ref France, the attempted coup to stop France abandoning Algeria was driven by autocratic aversion to Change among the military elite. Any Government that includes the Military priorities in its final decision making  is always  autocratic and averse to change. Examples flood history and it can really be counted a truism of Humanity,with the 600lb gorilla example being the USSR (wartime Deomcracies don't count,  as when the War is over the Deomcracy unbekts itself, with consequent Change). 

Each time an autocratic government is forced to change it ceases to function,  locks up and,  inevitably, replaced. For Autocracy this equals death (often literally).  In Democracy,  change is how it works, there's no penalty for it so there's no excessive friction against it (we can get into Lib.  V.  Cons and paths to autocracy separately).M onarchy is autocratic in nature and extremely averse to Change (La Guillotine being a salient example why! ).

So for a society to adjust to change its government must be anything but autocratic. 

And with Russia's track record, I deeply doubt any replacing government to Putin's regime or system will be non-autocratic, so true change in its geopolitical outlook will be unlikely, if not impossible. 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Kinophile