How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Sekai said:

It appears that Wagner has stopped recruiting.

The senior ranks of the Russian military may have felt uneasy due to Prigozhin's ascent to prominence.

 

 

 

I'm thinking it's more a case of running out of prisoners willing to take their offer.

Wondering if the next step will be to 'convince' more prisoners that they have to volunteer.

[DesertFox]

14 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I don't know if it's true

It is. With the usual caveat though:

"Wir sind daher bereit, auch in der Ukraine ein Werk für die Fertigung des Panther zu errichten", sagte Papperger - vorausgesetzt, der Krieg sei beendet und die nötigen Genehmigungen der Bundesregierung lägen vor.

"We are therefore prepared to set up a plant for the production of the Panther in the Ukraine as well," said Papperger - provided the war was over and the necessary permits from the federal government were in place.

Rheinmetall in Talks to Supply Ukraine With Panther Battle Tanks (ETR:RHM) - Bloomberg

Panther: Rheinmetall will modernsten Panzer an Ukraine exportieren (handelsblatt.com)

Fertigung in Ukraine möglich: Rheinmetall will Kiew Kampfpanzer Panther liefern - n-tv.de

Edited February 9, 2023 by DesertFox

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Against Napoleon things didn't look good for a very long time, but the Russians kept on fighting, and they finally did win.

The Winterwar of 1939 didn't go especially good, to use a nice euphemism, but the Russians kept on fighting and they won eventually. 

And well, the summer of 1941 was way, way, WAY worse for the Russian Army than anything else, but they kept on fighting (against any logic or sensible reason), and they won in 1945.

 

So their history teaches them: how bad it is, even unimaginably bad, in the end we can win.

 

 

Well to sidestep all the yelling a bit, let’s talk about the deep well of Russian ability to suffer and endure….leading to victory.  I think this really concerns a lot of people and is central to the fear in engaging in a war of attrition with Russia.  The large historical examples point to the “fact” that “one cannot win a war of attrition against Russia”.

Well if Ukraine was invading Russia with intent to conquer them I would be onside.  Russia has demonstrated incredible resilience in historical existential wars…but this is not an existential war for Russia, it is discretionary.  Putin is working overtime trying to convince the Russian population that this war is indeed existential, and for him personally it is, but for the nation it is a harder sell.  In discretionary wars Russia, as has been noted, has not performed any better than anyone else.  They had their “Vietnam” in Afghanistan too which finally buckled under the weight of erosion of public sentiment.

So in trying to assess Russian Will you have to first recognize the war that they are in.  A discretionary war of intervention, or at least how it was sold at the beginning.  It is a preventative war designed to push NATO and western influence back.  Putin’s strat comm machine now has it framed as a direct confrontation with NATO - burning M1s and all - but how well that is selling remains a mystery.  I have zero doubt that intel communities are inside the Russian info sphere collecting data and trying to figure out where the Russian people stand on all this.  Given the mass exodus of some Russians it is clear that not everyone is buying it.

Now there is one party for which this war is existential and that would be Ukraine.  And the history of organized and well supported parties who are in an existential war versus a side that is in a discretionary war is something people may want to explore further.

Edited February 9, 2023 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/

SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink internet for drones -company president

 

Musk needs to feel massive pressure on this TODAY. If you have a Tesla on order cancel, and tell, them why. If you know anybody with a Tesla on order, ask them to cancel it, and tell Tesla why. Call your Congressperson/Member of Parliament and tell them that every government contract Tesla has needs to be reviewed. Musk should be in front of Congressional committee this coming Monday. 

Edit: Email to my Congressman Done before my coffee is.

Edited February 9, 2023 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

Interesting RUSI article around some of the challenges of providing Tranche 1 Typhoons

Giving RAF Typhoons to Ukraine Would Be a Very Expensive Symbolic Gesture | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org) 

Long and short of it is that Typhoons are less suitable for lots of reasons and that the Gripen C is a much better fit.

Yeah, but isn't it nearly always the case that the UK has to offer Ukraine the western weapons it has available to it in order to  provide a demonstration/pathway/example that other western nations can follow in getting Ukraine more suitable weapons?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Lethaface]

5 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Well, that is the problem. UKR has to convince the average RUS soldier, that further resistance against UKR is worse than the threat of bullet in the back from Kadyrovtsy/Wagner barrier troops and your family getting bankrupted due to the military pension being denied to them. That is a steeper challenge.

It is indeed. But the 'barrier troops' aren't invulnerable or inexhaustive; they might be required for manning the front themselves sooner. And somewhere there is a threshold where troops rather take their chances with the barrier troops / legal issues, compared to remaining in their positions. Where exactly that threshold is, well I guess nobody knows.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

It's very bad for the front line.  Christ,  what a post-truth shill he is. 

But,  Yknow,  he's probably putting pressure on the Pentagon to buy Starlink off him,  or at least fund it. And he'll breezily do that bargaining with the lives of ZSU soldiers,  the limbs of their children and the shattered husks of their cities as his coinage. 

Very well put, allow me to repeat myself. The inboxes of Congress/Parliaments need to melt with complaints about this.

Edited February 9, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Speaking about the role that the USSR played in the end of the Second World War, everyone forgets the role of the USSR in unleashing the Second World War (attack on Poland, attack on Finland, occupation of the Baltic countries, occupation of the Bessarabia and Moldova). It's just that Hitler was more insane than Stalin, so he got the laurels of the main villain.

Personally, I think that the real winner in World War II is Great Britain. The only state that participated in this war from the very beginning to the very end

Out of likes, excellent post.

[LongLeftFlank]

Good maps, bad news.... 

 

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Man bites dog remains a story even today:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-wagner-mercenaries-halt-prisoner-recruitment-campaign-founder-prigozhin-2023-02-09/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

So does that mean Prigozhin needs to stay away from windows and tall stairwells for a while?

[cesmonkey]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

So that's a proposal from two Dutch MPs, right?
Sjoerd Sjoerdsma and Alexander Hammelburg 

But there does seem some activity there:

Coalition party CDA admits color in the discussion about supplying fighter planes to Ukraine. "Now is the time to decide that we should send F16s," said defense spokesman Derk Boswijk in the WNL radio program Sven Op 1 .
https://www.nporadio1.nl/nieuws/politiek/d7a1c008-49f1-4207-a3b6-a7daab7c3db8/cda-is-om-nederland-moet-f16s-aan-oekraine-leveren
 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

Seems that the lack of 'developments' is changing last few days. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

I don't know if it's true

If Rheinmetal is even discussing this with Ukraine it can only be interpreted as massive bleep you to Scholz for deeply damaging their business by making them/Germany look like an unreliable supplier.

[DesertFox]

More on that polish HIMARS buying spree...

 

 

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If Rheinmetal is even discussing this with Ukraine it can only be interpreted as massive bleep you to Scholz for deeply damaging their business by making them/Germany look like an unreliable supplier.

It is exactly that.

[Lethaface]

25 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

I start to wonder whether our parliamentarians are reading this thread lol. 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Speaking about the role that the USSR played in the end of the Second World War, everyone forgets the role of the USSR in unleashing the Second World War (attack on Poland, attack on Finland, occupation of the Baltic countries, occupation of the Bessarabia and Moldova). It's just that Hitler was more insane than Stalin, so he got the laurels of the main villain.

That wasn't the topic of this argument, though. Winning or losing a war is not a question of good or evil, not in the military sense, anyway. And if you go by who was without fault, you will end up with few candidates.

I mean, you might as well blame UK and France for the Versailles contract and the USA for the worldwide economic crisis. Without both the Nazis wouldn't have come to power. You can blame UK and France for not intervening 1939 although they had guaranteed Poland's security. They could have ended the war there and then. And without Germany, i.e. without the pact between Hitler and Stalin it is questionable how far Stalin could have/would have gone. All of this is true but it doesn't change the fact that Russia was instrumental for the Allied victory, villain or not.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Butschi

[DesertFox]

Warning! Very graphic!

 

 

[Lethaface]

22 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

So that's a proposal from two Dutch MPs, right?
Sjoerd Sjoerdsma and Alexander Hammelburg 

But there does seem some activity there:

Coalition party CDA admits color in the discussion about supplying fighter planes to Ukraine. "Now is the time to decide that we should send F16s," said defense spokesman Derk Boswijk in the WNL radio program Sven Op 1 .
https://www.nporadio1.nl/nieuws/politiek/d7a1c008-49f1-4207-a3b6-a7daab7c3db8/cda-is-om-nederland-moet-f16s-aan-oekraine-leveren
 

Yes, both from d66 which is the 2nd largest party in the current coalition. The largest is VVD (party of the prime minister), 3rd and 4th are CDA and CU. However members of parliament are free to propose motions that are not necessarily supported by the government, even if their own party is in the coalition. But that's not really a usual thing.

Edit to add: Our minister of foreign affairs Hoekstra (CDA) was the one who recently said that we would look into any Ukrainian request for F-16s with an 'open mind'. 

So I guess the government is already on board with the idea.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Lethaface

[Ales Dvorak]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

This seriously gets ridiculous. So now everyone who isn't firmly in the "Russia sux, lol, Ukraine has already won" camp is pro Putin? Really?

This is normal. Just look at the narrative in EU. Remember North Stream 2? Putin did it, Russia did it...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-bombed-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-claims-investigative-journalist-seymour-hersh-s730dnnfz

 

p.s. Don't turn off the light with a switch, just blow up the house. ( and light will maybe turn off )

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I mean, you might as well blame UK and France for the Versailles contract and the USA for the worldwide economic crisis. Without both the Nazis wouldn't have come to power. You can blame UK and France for not intervening 1939 although they had guaranteed Poland's security. They could have ended the war there and then. And without Germany, i.e. without the pact between Hitler and Stalin it is questionable how far Stalin could have/would have gone. All of this is true but it doesn't change the fact that Russia was instrumental for the Allied victory, villain or not.

Come on, that is a huge stretch and totally inappropriate. That is like saying the contributors to a murder are the police because they have not caught the perpetrator on the way to the crime scene,the gynecologist who assisted at his birth and did not drop him on the floor - and the murderer's friend who gave him a gun and a car to use just before the act. Soviets allied with the Germans to invade Poland and intentionally sold the Germans war materials, without which Hitler would not be able to sustain the war with the West and would not have attacked. There would not have been a World War 2 as we know it without Soviet Union's prior pact with Germany, which makes it a conditio sine qua non. In legal terms, I would say it makes Soviets more than aiders and abettors, but co-perpetrators. The fact that that both bandits fought later and one of them turned King's evidence is neither here nor there.

[dan/california]

Gentlemen there is more than enough to talk about today without overworking someones less than perfect historical analogy. I say this as someone who has made my full fair share of very bad ones. But Starlink, Jets to Ukraine, Russian offensive, and, and.....

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Come on, that is a huge stretch and totally inappropriate. That is like saying the contributors to a murder are the police because they have not caught the perpetrator on the way to the crime scene,the gynecologist who assisted at his birth and did not drop him on the floor - and the murderer's friend who gave him a gun and a car to use just before the act. Soviets allied with the Germans to invade Poland and intentionally sold the Germans war materials, without which Hitler would not be able to sustain the war with the West and would not have attacked. There would not have been a World War 2 as we know it without Soviet Union's prior pact with Germany, which makes it a conditio sine qua non. In legal terms, I would say it makes Soviets more than aiders and abettors, but co-perpetrators. The fact that that both bandits fought later and one of them turned King's evidence is neither here nor there.

No need to foam at the mouth, you are quoting me out of context. I was replying to the idea that somehow because the Soviet Union was not without guilt (and Stalin was of course a strong contender for 20th century super villain) it was not playing a major part in winning it.

By the way your analogies are somewhat off. Comparing the the role France and UK played w.r.t. Poland for instance was just not the same as the police not catching a criminal before he can commit the next crime. It was more like standing in front the house, after telling the inhabitants they are safe, and then standing by and watching.

But that is really not the point. I wrote this precisely because, although true, noone would say, "Well of course, UK technically won the war but they are to blame for letting it happen in the first place... so no, they didn't win."

[sross112]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I don't know, really. But basically every country that still has beef with Ukraine (Hungary, maybe?) or doesn't think it gains enough for an increased danger of getting drawn into a the next conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a candidate. Or any country that after the war thinks it can gain more by pleasing Russia than by defending Ukraine.

I think the stop gap between the end of hostilities and full NATO membership is the creation of a separate defensive alliance. Poland, Sweden, Finland, Baltics, Czech, UK and maybe France, US, some of the Balkans, etc could easily sign a defense pact that wouldn't be as strong as a full NATO, but it would be strong enough. Then if it takes 10 years for full NATO membership, the day after Ukraine is in the separate alliance can be dissolved as redundant. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by sross112