How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Extended version from unlocked account. Russian helicopter flew along neutral zone and after missile hit turned right to own territory. It fell between Spirne (UKR-controlled) and Mykolaiivka (RUS-contolled)

Russian social media shared the same video with claims this is UKR helicopter, being shot down near Kostiantynivka, but this is fake. UKR really lost Mi-8 there, but it reportedly crashed because of technical reasons. Crew allegedly survived. 

Russians claim the helicopter on the video is Mi-8 of older series, which now use only Rosgvardiya and they always have a cover of Mi-24/Ka-52. Army as if uses only newest Mi-8AMTSh and Mi-8AMTV-5 (no). But this can be a chopper of Wagner or Rosgvardiya, here the photo of UKR crashed Mi-8/17 - we can see diffrent terrain with some facility on background

 

I think the pilot made a major mistake.  I understand the desire to make it back to friendly lines, but the fire was bad enough that was not a real possibility.  He should have used the precious time available to him to land it softly and take his chances of being captured.  Instead he flew until it crashed.  I don't know if he got out, but it looks like he went upside down. With the amount of fire he wouldn't have much time to get out of that tricky situation, even if he was in good physical condition.

Steve

[Jace11]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

H.I. Sutton

Oh cool, I always thought H.I Sutton was american for some reason. I learnt of him via sub brief, and checked his twitter when stuff is going is down... Didn't know he even had a YT channel... duh me!...

[Haiduk]

Other UKR video of shot down Mi-8, here we have see how all began - helicopter oviously has a star on board

And a TG screen, which I already posted above, but repeat again - Russians confirmed this was Wagner PMC helicopter, 2 pilots dead, 1 injured

 

[Haiduk]

UKR BTR-3DA still in action

Maybe in first time I see "Baryer" mounted ATGM with RK-2 missiles like in Stugna-P. During ATO/JFO BTR-3DA and BTR-4 very rarely carried RK-2 - mostly they either didn't have ATGMs or had old 9M111M/9M113 ("Baryer" allows to use it instead RK-2). 

 

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR BTR-3DA still in action

Maybe in first time I see "Baryer" mounted ATGM with RK-2 missiles like in Stugna-P. During ATO/JFO BTR-3DA and BTR-4 very rarely carried RK-2 - mostly they either didn't have ATGMs or had old 9M111M/9M113 ("Baryer" allows to use it instead RK-2). 

 

once again, thanks Haiduk for all your posts.  And may you and your family be safe (and your city and your country).  Good to see a well armed mech platoon like this.  I notice two things:  high morale (smiles) and it looks really wet.  

Just how muddy is it now?  And what do you expect by end of November?  Does the ground usually freeze by then?  

edit: I just googled climate in Kherson and Kharkiv and it seems that Kherson is ~3C warmer than Kharkiv, so will freeze later.  And by end of November it looks like daytime highs a little above freezing and nighttime lows a little below, on average.

Edited October 31, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[Beleg85]

It seems convoy is going through, now most of them should pass most dangerous area- no official info that Turkey is protecting anybody outside its 12 mil territorial waters. So guys are going alone.

Meanwile infamous RU ambassador to UN Nebenzya (guy from combat mosquitos) is lying about some UA danger to international shipment and lack of UN response to terrorist attack on Black Sea Fleet...

 

[dan/california]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

It seems convoy is going through, now most of them should pass most dangerous area- no official info that Turkey is protecting anybody outside its 12 mil territorial waters. So guys are going alone.

Meanwile infamous RU ambassador to UN Nebenzya (guy from combat mosquitos) is lying about some UA danger to international shipment and lack of UN response to terrorist attack on Black Sea Fleet...

 

At least Nebenzya has real comedy value. To be clear that is the only area in which he contributes more than toxic pond scum.

[Haiduk]

Just an illustration of bloodiest battle for Bakhmut.

The woman, UKR civil volunteer, which took care over one of companies of 93rd mech.brigade to help them with fundrising and supply with food and goods:

I feel very f...g bad because of I can't more to open fundrising for "own 93rd", because they are gone. In company left 4 men, which know "own angel". They have seen such things, that they already don't need anything in principle. I'm writing, writing to them, but they don't need anything. Just would be survive. 

Now they went to rear to replenishing, who remained. But if could see those eyes...

My mother have been knitting a socks for them from the spring - for all company.... She had a time to sent only 10 pairs. At last she finished socks for all other and now she "and what to do at all?!" - in full stupor. And mashrooms... What for we collected mashrooms? We have been rolled it into liter jars... Sad smile... 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

What do you think of this?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592
Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid

Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in military assistance when the Ukrainian president started listing all the additional help he needed.

 

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

What do you think of this?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592
Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid

Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in military assistance when the Ukrainian president started listing all the additional help he needed.

 

PsyOps  infiltrating into MSM  ?  I mean why else would  one publish  this .

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Just how muddy is it now?  And what do you expect by end of November?  Does the ground usually freeze by then?  

Thanks for yor wishes! )

There was a week of rains, so ground is muddy, especially in Kharkiv oblast and Donbas. Today in Kyiv we had clear sky and about 8...10 degrees with strong cold wind. This week in Kherson have to be mostly dry and cloudy, so the ground can dry too 

[Haiduk]

Night launch of Javelin. Successful

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast (occupied since 2014) - two HIMARS missiles to local hotel in this morning, where Russian officers have been deploying since 2014. No info about casualties.

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Night launch of Javelin. Successful

 

We clearly need more Javelin night  launch pictures!

[Haiduk]

Russians hit two port tugs in Ochakiv, which transported a barge with grain (it's unclear from the report, either they were hit during towing or they just did this work recently). Two sailors killed, on missed, one wounded. No info, what weapon was used

 

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

If Russia wants to use their remaining missiles on economic targets, while Ukraine obtains more Air defense and more artillery and more ability to stop Russian artillery on the battlefield...by all means, let the HIMARS and the SPGs and MLRS and NATO counter battery radars do their work Russia. Acting just like Germany and useless V1 and V2 rockets.....

 

[danfrodo]

48 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

What do you think of this?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592
Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid

Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in military assistance when the Ukrainian president started listing all the additional help he needed.

 

doesn't sound like a big deal to me.  Zelensky is right to push, and to push hard for aid.  Politicians are trying to keep public opinion on the side of support and also trying to not escalate too much at once.  So US et al were not just boiling the frog on Putin, they were boiling the frog of their own people.  Every RU atrocity and bit of UKR resistance allowed US et al to turn up the temperature a little more.  I of course wanted more more more faster faster faster also but calculations of politicians chose lesser-slower.  

I am sure that everyone here is aware that Roosevelt did what he could relative to US opinion until that opinion changed (sadly, took belligerent countries forcing us into it).

[FancyCat]

55 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

What do you think of this?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592
Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid

Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in military assistance when the Ukrainian president started listing all the additional help he needed.

 

I'm unconcerned, way more important is the portion discussing how Defense Secretary Austin was giddy about the pledges of aid provided by other states in mid-October during the Ramstein conference.

I think that can be attested due to more evidence of high end equipment being sent to Ukraine, for example Italy.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3604150-italy-provides-ukraine-with-two-m270-systems-six-pzh-2000-about-30-selfpropelled-howitzers-media.html

Quote

two M270 multiple rocket launchers, six 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, 20 to 30 units of 155mm modernized M109L self-propelled howitzers, and dozens of M113 armored personnel carriers.

This is a lot of new stuff heading in. Not sure if this was missed or linked, but NYT posted a article detailing Russia's loss of artillery superiority in the South.

We have reports of Ukraine shifting to tactical targets using HIMARS, which one can take as bad as they no longer have strategic targets, as Russia has finally hid them better, or as Ukraine depletes the targets, are able to focus more and more fire on less important targets, and therefore shift more fire in general towards breaking the frontlines and depleting Russian forces before advances.

I think it's a good sign combined with everything else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-artillery.html

 

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Russia's loss of artillery superiority in the South.

By this moment they partly lost it also in the North due to Himars and their LOC's complicating (there are multiple sources from Russian side complaining UA utilizing big firepower on Svatovo sector). Ukrainians are crawling slowly but steadly to the hills west of Krasna river.

Only Bakhmut/Donetsk front seems largely unaffected, with Muscovites still able to send artillery ammo by tonnes on Ukrainian positions. Lachowski says Russian firepower there is not much smaller than during worst moments of Lysychansk cauldron, albeit not from three directions and with limited counterbaterry fire from UA now available.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

New post Mashovets.

The command of the enemy troops continues to take active measures to "stabilize the situation" in the Svatovo direction. In particular, the regrouping of certain forces began, as well as the strengthening of this direction ...

- the enemy transferred to the area of the village of Kolomyychikha a "consolidated" BTGr of the 12th and 13th TR of the 4th TD of the 1st Guards. TA (up to 21-22 tanks, partially "limited combat readiness")

- BTGr of the 15th MRR of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the 1st Guards. TA due to significant losses in personel and weapons and military equipment (more than 45% of the regular strength) was withdrawn to restore combat capability ...

- the 1st MRBn of the 1st "Slavic" Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps (entered into operational subordination to the command of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th CAA) was deployed to the rear of the Swatovskaya grouping of enemy troops from the Donetsk region.

 

- the enemy command also brought into battle in the Limansk direction (near the village of Zhitlovka) two reinforced companies from the 201st military base of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces in Tajikistan (the rest of its forces are now deployed in the Lisichansk direction).

During the past 2 days, due to the advance of the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine west of Svatovo, the command of the enemy troops in this direction was forced to hastily organize and conduct a poorly prepared and organized counterattack in the direction of Dzherelnoye - Andreevka by forces of the "significantly cracked" remains of the BTGr 254 MRR of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the 20th CAA, which were previously forced to withdraw to this area from the area southwest of Svatovo ...

Having replenished these units with "chmobiks", the enemy went on the attack on October 29, which ended with a quite expected result - from a dozen of the next 200-300, and a couple of burned-out AFVs, as a result, leaving for the starting line.

Tough close infantry battles continue in Kolomyychikha. It is not surprising - the loss of this settlement for the enemy will mean a sharp deterioration in the entire situation in the Svatovo region. This will also affect the state of enemy troops trying to defend themselves in the Kuzemovka area.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

doesn't sound like a big deal to me.  Zelensky is right to push, and to push hard for aid.  Politicians are trying to keep public opinion on the side of support and also trying to not escalate too much at once.  So US et al were not just boiling the frog on Putin, they were boiling the frog of their own people.  Every RU atrocity and bit of UKR resistance allowed US et al to turn up the temperature a little more.  I of course wanted more more more faster faster faster also but calculations of politicians chose lesser-slower.  

I am sure that everyone here is aware that Roosevelt did what he could relative to US opinion until that opinion changed (sadly, took belligerent countries forcing us into it).

That Zelensky feels comfortable pushing and Biden feels comfortable pushing back is an indication of closeness in an alliance rather that the opposite. I would put this story in the ‘normal alliance horse trading’ box.

[Zeleban]

The command of the enemy troops defending in the Svatovo area continues to "find out" about the "unauthorized abandonment of positions" in the area of the village. Kolomyychikha by the personnel of 2 mrb of the 423rd "Yampol" MRR, staffed mainly by "chmobiks"

It turned out that the personnel of this unit (the 5th and 6th companies), behind which they occupied the positions of the unit of the 15th MRR already assigned to "restoration of combat capability" ... suffered significant losses due to the massive fire impact of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for several days. ..

In the end, the personnel of the unit, unable to achieve a clear and adequate command from their own "drunk commanders", on foot, on their own, without any command from the top authorities, trampled almost 15 km to the rear and was discovered by the Russian command right at the gas station on the western outskirts of Svatovo ... where hungry Russian "chmobiks" tried to get "something edible" ...

Personally, for me, this whole story, which the Russian command is now trying to carefully hide "under the carpet", does not cause much surprise.

It is only surprising that the Russian command, it seems, either does not have (real) information about the state of affairs in sectors of the front that are quite important for itself, or does not deal with such an issue as establishing interaction between its own units (during interrogations of the retreating "chmobiks" it turned out that they were fired on at least twice by Russian units occupying positions behind them or on the flanks). Some wildness...

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The command of the enemy troops defending in the Svatovo area continues to "find out" about the "unauthorized abandonment of positions" in the area of the village. Kolomyychikha by the personnel of 2 mrb of the 423rd "Yampol" MRR, staffed mainly by "chmobiks"

It turned out that the personnel of this unit (the 5th and 6th companies), behind which they occupied the positions of the unit of the 15th MRR already assigned to "restoration of combat capability" ... suffered significant losses due to the massive fire impact of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for several days. ..

In the end, the personnel of the unit, unable to achieve a clear and adequate command from their own "drunk commanders", on foot, on their own, without any command from the top authorities, trampled almost 15 km to the rear and was discovered by the Russian command right at the gas station on the western outskirts of Svatovo ... where hungry Russian "chmobiks" tried to get "something edible" ...

Personally, for me, this whole story, which the Russian command is now trying to carefully hide "under the carpet", does not cause much surprise.

It is only surprising that the Russian command, it seems, either does not have (real) information about the state of affairs in sectors of the front that are quite important for itself, or does not deal with such an issue as establishing interaction between its own units (during interrogations of the retreating "chmobiks" it turned out that they were fired on at least twice by Russian units occupying positions behind them or on the flanks). Some wildness...

This shows how messed up things are for RU.  They are putting cannon fodder in critical sector, where collapse could lead to bigger collapse.  If RU was competent and not desperately short of manpower, the chmobiks would be rear area jobs & in quiet sectors.  Hopefully this is the first of many such reports coming our way

[Zeleban]

In the Bakhmut direction and to the south, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive / assault operations in the following areas:

- PMC "Wagner" (by the forces of 2 "assault units" \ battalions) - Nikolaevka, Kurdyumovka; Otradovka, Andreevka; Veselaya Dolina, Bakhmut; Shipilovka, Belogorovka; Zolotarovka, Belogorovka; They took part in the attacks from the assault squad to the reinforced platoon.

- 7th SMRBr of the 2nd AK - Stryapovka, Soledar, somewhere up to 2 platoons;

- 6 "Cossack" SMRR 2nd AK - Pokrovskoye, Bakhmutskoye, reinforced platoon;

- 2 SMRBr of the 2nd AK, up to 2 platoons - Trypillia, Yakovlevka;

- 3 SMRBr of the 1st AK - Zaitsevo (lower), Mayorsk, up to the company;

- 131st RBn mobilization reserve - Gorlovka, Mayorsk, up to 2 platoons, without armored vehicles.

The area of Oprosnoe - Vodyanoye, the enemy during October 29 - 30, by the forces of the 11th SMRR, made an unsuccessful attack on the village of Vodiane, suffered losses.

At the same time, units from the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd MRBn), a separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta", 185 RBn of the people's militia of the DPR and a detachment of "Storm" 102 MRR 150 TD tried to fortify the positions captured on October 28 with the intention to further develop the offensive on Opytne-Vodyanoye, conducted aerial reconnaissance, reconnaissance in force and tried to inflict fire damage on forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

 

It looked like this

(to understand the dynamics and meaning of what we usually call "local battles", or what Arestovich calls "small tactical actions").

 

The enemy from the 11th separate motorized rifle regiment attempted an offensive from the village of Peski in the direction of the village of Vodiane. The enemy formed 4 assault groups, probably from the 1st motorized rifle battalion of this regiment, and began to advance with the support of artillery and armored vehicles.

Not later than 20 minutes later, he came into fire contact with the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and for several hours suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment (up to 12 people killed and wounded), was forced to retreat to the starting line. The command of the attacking unit justified this decision by "the impossibility of conducting offensive operations due to the use of UAVs of the Fury type by the Armed Forces of Ukraine ...

In turn, the enemy from the 2 MRBn of the 1st SMRBr and SRecBn "Sparta" (equipping the positions captured on October 28 in the southeastern part of the village of Vodiane), tried to conduct reconnaissance in combat (with forces - up to 2 assault squads), success also didn't have.

SRecBn "Sparta", during this period, led the air strenuously. And also from the UAV corrected the fire on the allegedly Ukrainian 82-mm mortar, claimed that they "suppressed the target." After a certain time, probably at the same coordinates, he "suppressed the mortar" again, the consumption was up to 20 shells. In fact, no one suppressed anything ... The enemy in this area during his "reconnaissance in force" suffered at least two sanitary losses.

In addition, the enemy from the 185 RBn people's militia of the DPR and the Storm detachment 102 MRR 150 TD tried to hold the positions captured on October 28 southeast of the village of Opytnoe. In the morning, reinforcements from reservists approached with a "categorical" task - to hold positions. After that, according to the plan, the assault groups were to resume the offensive in the direction of the village of Opytnoe. However, due to the devastating fire of the Ukrainian artillery, the enemy was forced to abandon his intentions. During the day, his losses on this sector of the front amounted to at least 5 sanitary.

In turn, the subunits of the "Pyatnashka" battalion, during this period, were engaged in household chores, did not carry out active attacking actions in their sector of the front south of the city of Avdiivka. The total number of this unit, capable of this kind of "impromptu" on the indicated sector of the front, as of the morning of the 31st, is up to 65-70 people.

[Zeleban]