How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, Huba said:

Looks like UA is going for the bridge:

 

According to RU comments UKR strikes are targeting the seam of the bridge (like cutting it with the knife across).  Also according to RU statement out of 12 launched GMLRS at the bridge 8-9 hit it. 

 

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to RU comments UKR strikes are targeting the seam of the bridge (like cutting it with the knife across).  Also according to RU statement out of 12 launched GMLRS at the bridge 8-9 hit it. 

 

 

 

Going to take a lot of hits. Also going to be easy and fast to repair partial collapse with bridging equipment. 

Thanh Hóa Bridge as historical reference.

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Going to take a lot of hits. Also going to be easy and fast to repair partial collapse with bridging equipment. 

I would say they did half, maybe 2/3s of the cut. RU comments they will repair but it will take time. And I expect UKR to hit the repair works as well. 

Looks like UKR goal is not to collapse bridge but make it harder for RU to transport heavy equipment. Maybe they want to keep it for themselves?

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

I would say they did half, maybe 2/3s of the cut. RU comments they will repair but it will take time. And I expect UKR to hit the repair works as well. 

Looks like UKR goal is not to collapse bridge but make it harder for RU to transport heavy equipment. Maybe they want to keep it for themselves?

Even a controlled detonation of a bridge takes tons and tons of explosives. One GMLRS rocket has around 100kg warhead.

I believe UKR cannot demolish it but they can keep it out of action for significant amount of time. Cut a section and keep hitting the repair and bridging equipment.

This would have to be followed up by Kherson strategic offensive to make sense I believe. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I would say they did half, maybe 2/3s of the cut. RU comments they will repair but it will take time. And I expect UKR to hit the repair works as well. 

Looks like UKR goal is not to collapse bridge but make it harder for RU to transport heavy equipment. Maybe they want to keep it for themselves?

Or they hope to force RU to retreat instead of cutring them off and reducing ar huge cost. 

Or, they just bid their time and don't want to waste more missiles than needed. They are not exactly under time pressure... 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I believe UKR cannot demolish it but they can keep it out of action for significant amount of time. Cut a section and keep hitting the repair and bridging equipment.

This. 

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Or they hope to force RU to retreat instead of cutring them off and reducing ar huge cost. 

Could be. But given RU determination I think UKR is putting pressure on RU to transfer heavy equipment to the other side. 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Wow, that sounds like something straight out of Kremlin... 

Or certain other historical dude, who was also all about the pure Germans and "Nordics" and the subhuman Eastern Europeans. Or Dugin, for that matter.

...

I think what Poland is doing is pretty straightforward.

Despite being one of the richest countries in the world, Germany is incapable of having effective military due to cultural issues (procurement and modernization and organization) for at least years. Or maybe ever, if they don't address those issues. Watch the Perun video for details - that "ship repair" part was extremely juicy, the level of weaponized incompetence and corruption might be higher than in Russia in this particular case.

So even if Germany was willing to help Eastern Europe in case of further Russian aggression, they can't do it. Czechia, Slovakia and the Baltics are too small to really have effective military (without going all military culture like Israel) and I don't think Romania has the money - so Poland can see that even if it is not standing on its own, it has to take a lead.

And their push for high quality hardware is exactly them doing that. Yes, they might be overdoing it or not doing it right (anyone investing into military right now should pay very good attention to Ukraine and I'm not sure that's happening ) but it is better than not doing anything at all.

And of course, it is easy think that Russia is almost defeated and investment into military isn't all that necessary. But that is exactly what many governments though after the fall of Soviet union and neglected military for decades and now looked at it like "oh ****". So I think Polish military people are kind of overdoing it on purpose since if Russia gets defeated soon, politicians might go back to neglect, and then stunned surprise when Russia is trouble again - whether in ten years or twenty.

(Then there is the whole "would Germany and France etc be willing to help?" - but I'm not going to go into that and assume Aragorns view of people of Eastern Europe is not typical.)

[Grigb]

Some news from mental asylum 

Deputy of one of the Moscow municipal districts got 10 days of arrest due to a repost of New York Times article from 2 of May 1945 about Hitler death.  Distribution of extremist materials. Article 20.3 of the Administrative Code of the Russian Federation.

The author of the original tweet posted the article with the word meaning: "It's time". However, he already escaped, so RU fascists came for the guy who reposted it.

 

But the most mental case happened with RU legendary leader of legendary group DDT. During live concert in Ufa Yuri Shevchuk said: "Motherland, [my] friends, is not the president's ass, which you have to slabber and kiss all the time. The motherland is a beggar grandmother at the train station selling potatoes. This is the motherland" Immediately after the concert he was questioned and a case against him was started.  

The hilarious part is that the judge is facing huge dilemma - he cannot rule for Shevchuk but ruling against him means judge and by extension RU gov believe that RU motherland is indeed the president's ass, which you have to slabber and kiss all the time.

Well, they are transferring his case between departments back and forth delaying the court hearing. 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

And their push for high quality hardware is exactly them doing that. Yes, they might be overdoing it or not doing it right (anyone investing into military right now should pay very good attention to Ukraine and I'm not sure that's happening ) but it is better than not doing anything at all.

Our military got it's budget basically doubled overnight - there's no way any MoD could handle something like that super efficiently and without issues. 

There's going to be a huge defence cooperation deal signed with ROK in upcoming days, and the list of equipment we potentially want is absolutely crazy, including K9 (not enough Krabs in short term, all are going to Ukraine), tanks, AS21 IFV, aircraft, god knows what else. No sense at all considering we could produce it ourselves in 5 years, or buy more fitting equipment - but the urgency changes the calculation it seems.. 

In other news, a dramatic development on the Snake Island:

 

[Huba]

That's just rich... And he threatened to expand them to whole Ukraine if US sends ATACMS.. 

 

[Huba]

Another video of the bridge - it looks like taking it down will require quite many rockets - 18 fired so far, probably at least 50 in total will be needed. Totally worth it I think. 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Another video of the bridge - it looks like taking it down will require quite many rockets - 18 fired so far, probably at least 50 in total will be needed. Totally worth it I think. 

 

Would be a lot easier if bridges were made out of TNT like ammo dumps

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is possible that Ukraine sent Russia a message to leave in order to spare the civilian population extra hardship if the bridge is dropped and Russia stays in position.  I personally don't think that's the case.  I think it's reasonable to presume Russian forces wouldn't hold out very long after the bridge goes down. 

Notable this morning that there are only about 7 large commercial cargo ships in the estuary and anchorage near Kherson. It doesn't look like Russia has any large dedicated seaborne resupply in action and now that's probably an increasingly dangerous proposition.

[hcrof]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

Another video of the bridge - it looks like taking it down will require quite many rockets - 18 fired so far, probably at least 50 in total will be needed. Totally worth it I think. 

 

I'm on my phone but it looks like at least one of the main beams has been badly damaged(?), which will result in weight restrictions if true. Cars are not that heavy (car parks are very lightly built) but military vehicles might be more of a problem already.

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps time for a new North-western military and economical alliance with sensible and democratic countries like Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-Denmark-Norway-Sweden-Finland-Baltic States and the United Kingdom. Most people in those countries are fed up with the rest of Europe anyway. Who knows. Perhaps for the better.

Poor French, Italians and Spanish. They were apparently never trully European nor sensible.

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

The century of Chaos.

Mate, too much Paradox games, Warhammer or whatever esthetics you are inhaling. They only pretend realism, you know...

 

Ok out of respect for other (mature) German members of this forum, enough of this pointless talks and back to the topic.

It is curious that Lavrov clearlty admitts they still want to go Full Monthy with Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1549711941299470336

It can be a negotiating strategy, but since he is talking clearly and plainly it will be very difficult to Kremlin to put the sword down. That is a strong suggestion his Master still thinks he is winning this. Which confirms our previous assumptions about Putin's mental state.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Very interesting.

What other likely reasons Ukraine would have to hit the bridges other than Strategic Kherson counter attack being imminent?

Before the said counter attack I would expect surge in deeps strikes, bridges going out, partisan activity exploding. If any of these are done piecemeal or prematurely Russia would adjust and maximum effect lost.

The simplest reason is that a damaged bridge can still be retreated across by the RA if it leaves its heavy equipment behind while a resupply forward across that bridge becomes quite difficult. Could be for an imminent action or simply very efficient battlefield shaping.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Notable this morning that there are only about 7 large commercial cargo ships in the estuary and anchorage near Kherson. It doesn't look like Russia has any large dedicated seaborne resupply in action and now that's probably an increasingly dangerous proposition.

I had thought about this, but figured that once it was clear that Ukraine had both the ability and the desire to drop precision munitions into that area then Russia would stop using the port for anything regular (e.g. resupply, large troop movements, etc.).  They've had some rather unpleasant things happen to docked Russian ships even before PGMs got into the mix.  Russian leadership might be dumb, but they aren't stupid

Steve

[Grigb]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

Another video of the bridge - it looks like taking it down will require quite many rockets - 18 fired so far, probably at least 50 in total will be needed. Totally worth it I think. 

The guy says: Here comes the overlap of the bridge, metal and next here they are hitting exactly right next to this overlap. The overlap he is talking about looks like perpendicular load-bearing wide beam.

Meanwhile RU is panicking for some reason.

Quote

In the Kherson region, they said that the Antonovsky Bridge was in fact [almost] destroyed due to the shelling of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the military-civil administration of the region, if the strikes continue, it may collapse.

Maybe they are trying to confuse UKR or maybe UKR are hitting load bearing structure of the bridge severely weaking one span. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Grigb

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The simplest reason is that a damaged bridge can still be retreated across by the RA if it leaves its heavy equipment behind while a resupply forward across that bridge becomes quite difficult. Could be for an imminent action or simply very efficient battlefield shaping.

We know that Ukraine has been building up to a major counter offensive.  It has said as much through spokespeople and actions on the ground.  They have the 5th Tank Brigade sitting around Odessa last time I checked.  I've always assumed that it was not there for defensive purposes, so I expect it will be moved into position in Kherson and used as a battery ram.  Whenever we see that unit move, that's when we will know for sure that Ukraine is fully invested in taking back the western bank.

As for shaping the battlefield, that works for either a prolonged standoff or ahead of a high tempo offensive operation.  Either way, Russia is going to find it's ability to move artillery shells into Kherson extremely limited from now on.  And since artillery shells is what they need to do much of anything (defensive as well as offensive), what Ukraine is doing now is significant.

With the hits on the bridge yesterday, Ukraine announced the situation in Kherson is about to change.  Today it just confirmed that message is a serious one.

Steve

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They guy says: Here comes the overlap of the bridge, metal and next here they are hitting exactly right next to this overlap. The overlap he is talking about looks like perpendicular load-bearing wide beam.

Meanwhile RU is panicking for some reason.

Maybe they are trying to confuse UKR or maybe UKR are hitting load bearing structure of the bridge severely weaking one span. 

That exactly. Classic siege artillery work here- hitting the same spot for cumulative damage, eventually resulting in total destruction. 

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for shaping the battlefield, that works for either a prolonged standoff or ahead of a high tempo offensive operation.  Either way, Russia is going to find it's ability to move artillery shells into Kherson extremely limited from now on.  And since artillery shells is what they need to do much of anything (defensive as well as offensive), what Ukraine is doing now is significant.

With the hits on the bridge yesterday, Ukraine announced the situation in Kherson is about to change.  Today it just confirmed that message is a serious one.

What are the chances that Russians will find alternative ways to transport their ammo across the river? Dnieper is very wide, and barges with supplies would be quite difficult to hit if properly protected.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

What are the chances that Russians will find alternative ways to transport their ammo across the river? Dnieper is very wide, and barges with supplies would be quite difficult to hit if properly protected.

On the move, sure. But while unloading? The same IMO goes for trains. 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They guy says: Here comes the overlap of the bridge, metal and next here they are hitting exactly right next to this overlap. The overlap he is talking about looks like perpendicular load-bearing wide beam.

Meanwhile RU is panicking for some reason.

This is what I find most amusing about Russia's war thus far.  All the bravado comes crashing down pretty hard when it becomes clear that whatever is being bragged about is made out of tissue paper.

In this case we have Lavrov saying that they are going to take the rest of Ukraine, then the next minute it appears the springboard for that fantasy is about to collapse.  Literally.

This is why it is a very, very bad idea to use propaganda as a primary means of controlling populations or outside perspectives.  Better to have capabilities instead.  Or as old Teddy Roosevelt used to say... walk softly and carry a big stick.  Russia seems to walk loudly and carry a handful of borscht.

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Maybe they are trying to confuse UKR or maybe UKR are hitting load bearing structure of the bridge severely weaking one span. 

As has already been discussed, it doesn't take all that much to make a bridge unable to perform critical functions.  Weight being the most important determinant of what functions can be performed.  All Ukraine has to do is make it appear that the structural integrity is degraded to a point and it is effectively destroyed from a military standpoint.  Russia will be obligated to shape its plans around its probable limitations.

Steve

[Audgisil]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

On the move, sure. But while unloading? The same IMO goes for trains. 

They could likely unload in various locations, but I would imagine that the loading areas essentially would have to be set up as ammo dump / staging areas and that these would be highly vulnerable to ISR and attack because they can't just be set up instantly or moved around willy nilly.

[Grigb]

@Battlefront.com FYI while checking news about DDT Shevchuk i noticed something interesting. Below is the official clip for his song Dead man. It looks like it is about current war - They said about clip: The plot of the clip came out ominous and infernal. It demonstrates a totalitarian society, where masked people with coffins walk through the streets, drowning in streams of blood. But in fact, it was published Jun 26, 2020.

 

It looks like sensitive poetic Shevchuk noticed that Putin primed RU for the war two years ago. Which is just 6 months (time to make clip) after Nesmyan wrote: Year 19 is likely to be the last "quiet" year.

The war was supposed to start around 20-21. Most likely Covid delayed it.