How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Russian telegrammer reports some deputy defense ministers got replaced:
https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/11706
 

Quote

This went well:

the Supreme Commander relieved Pankov, Tsalikov, Shevtsova and Popov from the posts of Deputy Minister of Defense.

Leonid Vladimirovich Gornin was appointed first deputy.

 

[billbindc]

On 5/12/2024 at 3:28 PM, billbindc said:

Similarities to the sidelining of Sergei Ivanov in 2016 seem to be happening today in Moscow. Worth noting that the direction of Russian policy didn't change appreciably but instead Putin curtailed the status of potential competitors:  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html

It will be weeks before the meaning of all of this will become clear but I'd say watch what happens with Patrushev's sons, watch Diumin, watch if there are any changes made in leadership at the Rosgvardia. And whatever you do, don't spend a second on what office Patrushev is offered when all is said and done. He's unlikely in any case to have the influence he exerted up until today unless he overtly or covertly usurps Putin.

 

Round two of the deck reshuffling in the Kremlin. It is *quite* interesting that Putin is importing his niece into that position and he's throwing a bone to the Patrushev clan. All signs of attempts to coup proof, pay off and tie potential challengers to the regime. 

 

 

[Sgt Joch]

BBC article on the problems Ukraine is facing trying to mobilise more soldiers, sounds pretty dire.

Ukraine war: Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding (bbc.com)

Apparently, men in their 40s and 50s are being drafted.

Quote

On a break from training, Sintsov’s cohort of conscripts sat smoking and joking. They were a rag-tag group mostly in their late 40s and 50s – a pig breeder, a warehouse manager, and a builder – who admitted they would rather not be there. But nor did these men want to spend the rest of the war in hiding.

 

[Carolus]

Now that Western aid is flowing again (not saying it is "enough" however you define it), is it correct to say that Ukrainian recruiting is the biggest obstacle for Ukrainian security?

I am not talking about potential offensive maneuvering. I am solely thinking of being able to build up a capable reserve for rotation and replenishment.

This is, however, entirely on Ukrainians.

I am always in favor of using my miniscule political influence to push for more Ukraine aid, both material and financial.

But nothing can replace the Ukrainian willingness to defend their country. If young Ukrainians are unwilling to volunteer, we will likely see slow (very slow) and gradual contractions of Ukrainian controlled territory through Russian attrition warfare. 

Edited June 17 by Carolus

[Eddy]

55 minutes ago, Carolus said:

If young Ukrainians are unwilling to volunteer, we will likely see slow (very slow) and gradual contractions of Ukrainian controlled territory through Russian attrition warfare. 

More Ukrainians volunteered in May than in the previous 4 months of the year. This was from the Ukrainian govt maybe a week ago or so, maybe two. That's volunteered, not conscripted.

The Ukrainian govt have a campaign to urge people to volunteer for a specific brigade or role early, so that they won't be conscripted into a less well respected brigade or a role they don't want to do. So maybe that accounts for May's figure, I dunno. That is from the Ukraine the Latest podcast some time in the last week.

I've just skim-read that BBC report. No numbers, no real data to base anything on, really.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Eddy said:

More Ukrainians volunteered in May than in the previous 4 months of the year. This was from the Ukrainian govt maybe a week ago or so, maybe two. That's volunteered, not conscripted.

The Ukrainian govt have a campaign to urge people to volunteer for a specific brigade or role early, so that they won't be conscripted into a less well respected brigade or a role they don't want to do. So maybe that accounts for May's figure, I dunno. That is from the Ukraine the Latest podcast some time in the last week.

I've just skim-read that BBC report. No numbers, no real data to base anything on, really.

I think the BBC article is akin to something you could have found in any number of months over the past two years.  There's been a pretty consistent series of "OMG!" sensationalized unhappy people being drafted into the army.  Since the nature of these stories are anecdotal there's no real way to gauge how commonplace such incidents are.

That said, we know Ukraine's had recruitment problems with the 20-30 demographic since the war started in 2014.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Now that Western aid is flowing again (not saying it is "enough" however you define it), is it correct to say that Ukrainian recruiting is the biggest obstacle for Ukrainian security?

Yes

[Maciej Zwolinski]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That said, we know Ukraine's had recruitment problems with the 20-30 demographic since the war started in 2014.

Steve

I do not think that's the right way to put it. The Ukraine had huge demographic problems before the war which were made hugely worse by the war. I do not mean only those killed or conscripted, but also those who emigrated. Anecdotally, I see Ukrainian speaking men of fighting age on the streets of Warsaw several times each day. When I hired a construction crew to refurbish a few rooms in my house, they were Ukrainians of the  fighting age. Etc, etc.

From what I understand, the 20-30 cohort is simply not targeted as the source of fighting men as much because they are expected to try and improve the demographic situation of the country. To put it bluntly, they are the breeding stock. Such measures are nothing new. For comparison, after the War of the Triple Alliance when the male population of Paraguay was cut down by 50% consisting primarily of young men, they effectively introduced polygamy and even the Catholic Church did not protest.

[Offshoot]

BTR-82A vs M113

https://mil.in.ua/en/blogs/btr-82a-vs-m113-why-the-russian-isn-t-a-competitor-to-the-american/

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

But nothing can replace the Ukrainian willingness to defend their country. If young Ukrainians are unwilling to volunteer, we will likely see slow (very slow) and gradual contractions of Ukrainian controlled territory through Russian attrition warfare. 

Not volunteer, but not evade draft. There are two different thresholds. The Ukrainian army is long past being based on volunteers. Now it is the question of the people showing up when called, not queueing before the recruitment station on their own volition.

That's a function of many factors. The length of the war, surely, but also the lethality of it, the chances (or otherwise) to survive a tour of duty, the perceived likelihood of winning the war, the perception of whether the war burdens are allocated in a fair way or otherwise, etc. And also the harshness of the penalties for desertion and shirking. In 1945 Wehrmacht was still a fighting force, but at the cost of hanging many soldiers off trees or lampposts on the suspicion of desertion.

If the Ukrainians manage to formulate a plan for winning the war which the public will believe in, visibly crack down on corruption and unfair allocation of duties, and give soldiers good weapons and a believable perspective of survival, they have every chance of maintaining a good, steady inflow of conscripts.

[Eddy]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Yes

Nope. The US election is. That is the moment of maximum jeopardy.

Calling a spade a spade ( and desperately hoping that this doesn't descend once again into Americans shouting at Americans  ) one of the candidates is to my eyes, at the very least less invested in supporting Ukraine than the other.

This war is a multi-year endeavour. It is wrong-headed to think only of this months problem and not anticipate what may well come down the line. Ukraine will sort out it's personnel shortfalls sooner or later, because it has to and it has put in place procedures to do so. Without US support, things get very, very difficult. Europe can and probably will provide many types of ammunition and support. But it cannot provide GMLRS and ATACMS for example. Or comprehensive ISR. Training. Or, frankly, leadership. Europe's magazine depth in, say Storm Shadow/Scalp is very shallow now, it's leadership riven and hesitant 

Ukrainian recruitment problems are a thing, but solutions exist. Withdrawal of US support? That will take years to recover from, if it all.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

24 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Nope. The US election is. That is the moment of maximum jeopardy.

The original question assumes the Western aid flowing again.

[Fenris]

44 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

BTR-82A vs M113

https://mil.in.ua/en/blogs/btr-82a-vs-m113-why-the-russian-isn-t-a-competitor-to-the-american/

30mm can penetrate a M113... What's Captain Obvious trying to prove?

Ah I see, the article happily points out all the things Comrade Obvious glosses over whilst proving his is better than yours.

Edited June 17 by Fenris

[Offshoot]

19 minutes ago, Fenris said:

30mm can penetrate a M113... What's Captain Obvious trying to prove?

They did it to help BFC improve their simulation. Every second BTR shot should miss.

[cesmonkey]

Update from Konstantin Mashovets,
Pasted below is what I think is the interesting part of it:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1955

Quote

The most likely option for the enemy’s immediate actions in the Pokrovsky direction, in my opinion, will look like this:

- The enemy is close enough to directly begin fighting for the largest defense center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine east of the Volchya river - the village of Novoselovka Pervaya (he has already advanced along the southern bank of the local reservoir in its direction, and also, obviously, has the opportunity to approach it from the south, from the side of the village of Umanskoye).

- Also, we should expect the continuation of persistent enemy attacks along the Sokol - Evgenievka - Volchk direction with the goal of breaking through to the area of the village of Progress and thus ensuring the actions of their tactical group from the north, which, obviously, is now preparing for the battles for Novoselovka First

- Also, the enemy will probably continue his attempts to reach the area of the village of Vozdvizhenka, both along the eastern bank of the Kazeny Torets River (i.e. from the south), and acting from the side of Novoaleksandrovka, along the road.

These are precisely these directions and areas , in the, let’s say, paradigm that the command of the enemy GV “North” currently professes, are the most likely places for the application of its main efforts.

But, I would not exclude the possibility of transferring the enemy’s main efforts, at a certain moment, to the zone of action of his 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, in the directions Kalinovo - Staraya Nikolaevka, as well as Alexandropol - Sukhaya Balka.

However, this, apparently, directly depends on the result of the battles for the city of Chasov Yar and the depth of the enemy’s advance in the Kramatorsk direction. Figuratively speaking, as soon as the enemy manages to “go beyond the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal”, in the direction Ivanovskoye - Stupochki, or Kurdyumovka - Belaya Gora, then, obviously, the command of the Main Guard "Center" will think about this option...

For now, for now moment, the enemy’s strike tactical group in the Kramatorsk direction is bogged down in battles for the town of Chasov Yar, and his 1st and 3rd Army Corps (AK) are unable to significantly push back our advanced units from the Kleshchievka - Andreevka line, so in the Pokrovsk direction the enemy we have to continue our attempts to “step into the void...”

But sooner or later the command of the Main Guard "Center" will still have to make a choice - either continue to "break through" directly towards Pokrovsk, or still "think about Toretsk." After all, ONE-HOUR active (in the sense of offensive) actions of this group in both of these directions at once is, at the moment, hardly possible, at least without a radical increase in the numerical and qualitative composition of the forces of the Main Force "Center"..

 

 

[cesmonkey]

Rumor:

 

[acrashb]

Another sign of Putin's strategic genius:

"Record number of NATO members reach defense spending goal as Ukraine war persists"

"The estimated figure is a nearly fourfold increase from 2021, when only six nations were meeting the goal."

https://www.foxnews.com/world/record-number-nato-members-reaching-defense-spending-goal-ukraine-war-persists

 

Edited June 18 by acrashb

[Endyamon]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Rumor:

 

I hope this is true, but I wonder why they got this info from "il fatto quotidiano" which is the most anti-American, anti-Nato newpaper in Italy

[AlsatianFelix]

Kreigsforscher says he is on the Vovchansk front. He had this interesting comment that Russian tankers don't fire when buttoned up because they don't know how. Would that make the crews Green or Conscript level?

 

[dan/california]

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1802979561937760465

Read Dmitri every day!

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Kreigsforscher says he is on the Vovchansk front. He had this interesting comment that Russian tankers don't fire when buttoned up because they don't know how. Would that make the crews Green or Conscript level?

I think it makes them “Dead” level.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Kreigsforscher says he is on the Vovchansk front. He had this interesting comment that Russian tankers don't fire when buttoned up because they don't know how. Would that make the crews Green or Conscript level?

 

If this is true then it's something we've been expecting for a long time.  And that is that Russia is going through AFV crews faster than it can train them.  At least on a unit basis.

In thinking about what the differences are between firing buttoned and unbuttoned, I think it comes down to aim correction.  Even experienced crews value the greater situational awareness of an open hatch and, possibly, a pair of binoculars.  The difference is that an experienced crew doesn't need to rely upon that methodology.

So with the hurried training they perhaps tell their crews to have someone be exposed and call out simple corrections instead of relying upon whatever systems exist to aid in correcting fire because they aren't trained how to use them.

That's about all I could come up with.  Anybody else have thoughts?

Steve

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, acrashb said:

Another sign of Putin's strategic genius:

"Record number of NATO members reach defense spending goal as Ukraine war persists"

"The estimated figure is a nearly fourfold increase from 2021, when only six nations were meeting the goal."

https://www.foxnews.com/world/record-number-nato-members-reaching-defense-spending-goal-ukraine-war-persists

 

This right here.  When I hear about NATO collapsing or quaking in their boots from some corners….follow the freakin money.  NATO defence spending, and pressure to spend more on hard defence has gone up significantly.  Canada is being pulled into a Lahr Germany situation with forward loading a Bde in Latvia.  Other nations are ramping up spending, even in the face of post-pandemic financial pressures.

Why? Because right now the only thing containing Russia in Europe is NATO and all members know it.  Russia will be set back by this war but the underlying threat of an expansionist Russia is not going anywhere, even if it takes them a decade to get back up to speed.  This is good news because it will take the West a decade to get back to something resembling a Cold War footing.

So Ukraine is not a decisive war, it is an imitation of a larger conflict.  It has been decisive in starting this whole thing but win or lose, the larger conflict is not over once this war ends.  We must try as all get out to end this war on our terms, or as close as we can get.  But the way things are sizing up we are entering into a multi-polar power struggle that will continue well after Ukraine ends one way or the other.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

If this is true then it's something we've been expecting for a long time.  And that is that Russia is going through AFV crews faster than it can train them.  At least on a unit basis.

In thinking about what the differences are between firing buttoned and unbuttoned, I think it comes down to aim correction.  Even experienced crews value the greater situational awareness of an open hatch and, possibly, a pair of binoculars.  The difference is that an experienced crew doesn't need to rely upon that methodology.

So with the hurried training they perhaps tell their crews to have someone be exposed and call out simple corrections instead of relying upon whatever systems exist to aid in correcting fire because they aren't trained how to use them.

That's about all I could come up with.  Anybody else have thoughts?

Steve

 

I am sure the Russian crew training is somewhere between bad and nonexistent, but I wonder if they are are operating tanks with incomplete gunnery systems? Maybe they have just given up on modern gunsights in the attempt to push more meat to the front. Could be both...

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If this is true then it's something we've been expecting for a long time.  And that is that Russia is going through AFV crews faster than it can train them.  At least on a unit basis.

In thinking about what the differences are between firing buttoned and unbuttoned, I think it comes down to aim correction.  Even experienced crews value the greater situational awareness of an open hatch and, possibly, a pair of binoculars.  The difference is that an experienced crew doesn't need to rely upon that methodology.

So with the hurried training they perhaps tell their crews to have someone be exposed and call out simple corrections instead of relying upon whatever systems exist to aid in correcting fire because they aren't trained how to use them.

That's about all I could come up with.  Anybody else have thoughts?

Steve

 

Or it could be that the crews are using handheld range finders.  We know a lot of these tanks rolled out from older stocks and gawd knows what is still working or not.  The main gun LRFs could be busted, or as you note, the troops are not trained on them.  Using a handheld system is much easier - “point and click”, what fall of shot and correct.