How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

And almost as if on cue, some news on alleviating some of the pain for the Ukrainian energy system.

[dan/california]

Hilarious!

 

 

[dan/california]

Speaking of hilarious!

[dan/california]

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

And almost as if on cue, some news on alleviating some of the pain for the Ukrainian energy system.

There's also this:

Czech Republic hands over 9 cogeneration units to Kharkiv

https://gwaramedia.com/en/czech-republic-hands-over-9-cogeneration-units-to-kharkiv/

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

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We are talking with international partners about supplying a Patriot system to Ukraine. The Netherlands has made a radar and three launch systems available for this purpose.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

I'd be interested in some confirmation about this.  We know Ukraine (and presumably Russia) has put decoy airframes out in the open.  If it was a real plane, shame on Ukraine for not having them better protected.

Steve

[FancyCat]

A U.S Patriot battery currently in Poland will be given to Ukraine soon. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/us/politics/patriot-missiles-ukraine-war.html

 

[FancyCat]

 

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The US Treasury is expected to roll out a big expansion of secondary sanctions on Russia this week, treating any foreign bank transacting with a sanctioned Russian entity as though it is working directly with the Kremlin’s military-industrial base.

From FT:

The measure will widen a White House executive order that in December gave the Treasury the authority to apply secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions if they were found to have acted for, or on behalf of, any of about 1,200 entities deemed by the US government to be part of Russia’s defence sector. After this week’s change, that number will rise to more than 4,500 and will encompass almost all Russian entities that have already been sanctioned, even if this was for reasons other than direct support of the war in Ukraine. They include banks such as Sberbank and VTB, the country’s largest lenders.

 

[ASL Veteran]

 

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

And almost as if on cue, some news on alleviating some of the pain for the Ukrainian energy system.

And probably most of that money gets spent in western Europe to buy equipment to ship to Ukraine to replace destroyed stuff.

Edited June 11 by chrisl

[ASL Veteran]

I have to admit that these next two make me a little uncomfortable

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

 

The K-2 video has quite a few interesting things to see:

1.  There was an earlier attempt to move in by motorcycle as there is already a knocked out one behind the two MT-LBs.  This despite the area being under observed fire of small arms.  Bad intel?  Desperate attempt to reinforce some earlier gain?

2.  This is the first time I can remember seeing a command detonated (or perhaps timed?) mine being dropped.  Given the weight of the AT mine this makes sense as those drones aren't cheap and disposable.

3.  Once again seeing how suicidal drones make it for soldiers trying to take cover in or under a destroyed bit of armor.

4.  The vehicle they took cover in is apparently a MT-LBM with the older style BTR turret attached to it a bit further to the rear than some of the other turret mods I've seen pics of.

 

A general comment about small unit assaults is there are fewer targets to strike, which means in some circumstances a "target poor environment" means a drone can be deliberately sent to kill just 2 men.  This war has certainly taught us that there is no longer "safety in numbers", but it's also teaching us that there's no target too small to warrant a drone spend time killing it.  The poor bastard running around in the open field in the previous video is another example of that.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

 

Great showcase for the vehicle, except for the 3 or 4 other abandoned MaxPro hulks it passes on its run....

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

 

[photon]

The drone videos are sobering. We've talked a lot about how the technology is changing, but tactics wise we're in the era of Taranto, or maybe the theoretical carrier experiments of the 20s and 30s.

Seeing how fast the drones are and how maneuverable convinces me that kinetic defenses are close to a dead end (or, at best, the last layer in a deep defensive onion). Let's say you somehow put APS on all the tanks. Here's how I'd respond (assuming I want to destroy tanks; in reality, I'd just blow up all their fuel trucks, but let's say they have APS too).

1. One flight crew sends up a Baba Yaga carrying a squadron of 4 kamikaze drones. When the Baba Yaga finds a tank, they loop in four (experienced, practiced) pilots who launch from the air.

2. Hammer and Anvil. Two pilots orbit low outside the range of APS. Two of the pilots orbit high at the extreme range of the APS system (separated by 180°), dipping in and out of range.

3a. If there is only one APS system, the tank is boned. The second high pilot makes his attack run on the APS system while it is pointed away from him.

3b. When the APS (assuming there are two of them!) engages the first two pilots, the second two drop to the floor and make attack runs (separated by 180°) targeting the APS system.

4. However many drones survive engage and either mission kill or outright destroy the tank.

5. If the tank somehow survives, send a second Baba Yaga at the ammo-depleted and possibly damaged APS system. So, now the APS has to defend against multiple targets in very different quadrants, and be accurate enough to do that several times without a reload.

It's a variation of the hammer and anvil tactics that sunk Repulse and Prince of Wales. But the advantage is that your pilots are going to be wicked good at it because they can practice dozens of times per day (if Darwin is anything to go by) and are at very low personal risk. They can get a feel for the APS system's characteristics, because getting shot down does not kill the pilot. This hinges on being able to operate several drones in close proximity, but surely the radio nerds can make that happen?

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, photon said:

The drone videos are sobering. We've talked a lot about how the technology is changing, but tactics wise we're in the era of Taranto, or maybe the theoretical carrier experiments of the 20s and 30s.

Seeing how fast the drones are and how maneuverable convinces me that kinetic defenses are close to a dead end (or, at best, the last layer in a deep defensive onion). Let's say you somehow put APS on all the tanks. Here's how I'd respond (assuming I want to destroy tanks; in reality, I'd just blow up all their fuel trucks, but let's say they have APS too).

1. One flight crew sends up a Baba Yaga carrying a squadron of 4 kamikaze drones. When the Baba Yaga finds a tank, they loop in four (experienced, practiced) pilots who launch from the air.

2. Hammer and Anvil. Two pilots orbit low outside the range of APS. Two of the pilots orbit high at the extreme range of the APS system (separated by 180°), dipping in and out of range.

3a. If there is only one APS system, the tank is boned. The second high pilot makes his attack run on the APS system while it is pointed away from him.

3b. When the APS (assuming there are two of them!) engages the first two pilots, the second two drop to the floor and make attack runs (separated by 180°) targeting the APS system.

4. However many drones survive engage and either mission kill or outright destroy the tank.

5. If the tank somehow survives, send a second Baba Yaga at the ammo-depleted and possibly damaged APS system. So, now the APS has to defend against multiple targets in very different quadrants, and be accurate enough to do that several times without a reload.

It's a variation of the hammer and anvil tactics that sunk Repulse and Prince of Wales. But the advantage is that your pilots are going to be wicked good at it because they can practice dozens of times per day (if Darwin is anything to go by) and are at very low personal risk. They can get a feel for the APS system's characteristics, because getting shot down does not kill the pilot. This hinges on being able to operate several drones in close proximity, but surely the radio nerds can make that happen?

Or the Baba Yaga is carrying a dozen smart sub munitions the size of DPICM, and you simply overwhelm the APS system. Or stick a SMART like EFP stand off weapon on the Baba and kill the tank with an explosive-formed kinetic penetration from 200ms away.

The overall problem is that miniaturization, explosive materials and processing power-to-weight are conspiring towards killing large hard to defend platforms. Meanwhile shielding mechanisms are lagging because while offence can be wrong a hundred times at low cost, defence can only be wrong once at very high cost.

Edited June 12 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Or the Baba Yaga is carrying a dozen smart sub munitions the size of DPICM, and you simply overwhelm the APS system. Or stick a SMART like EFP stand off weapon on the Baba and kill the tank with an explosive-formed kinetic penetration from 200ms away.

The overall problem is that miniaturization, explosive materials and processing power-to-weight are conspiring towards killing large hard to defend platforms. Meanwhile shielding mechanisms are lagging because while offence can be wrong a hundred times at low cost, defence can only be wrong once at very high cost.

Or you spot where the tank is and where it is going and:

1.  deploy FPVs directly or via some sort of carrier (could be a UGV) and position them in the path of the oncoming tank

2.  the attack drones either stay on the ground or hover too low for the APS to spot them (they also won't be moving enough to be sensed by the APS)

3.  when the tank comes into range have the attack FPVs intercept the tank from near ground level where an APS would have a poor-to-zero chance of detecting them

One benefit of having a UGV deploy the FPVs is that the attack is never in the air and therefore less likely to be detected by any sort of remote sensing of any sort.  It could also be pre-deployed hours ahead of an expected attack along an expected round, such as the Russian attack pattern we've seen pretty much every day in Ukraine.  A UGV can sit idle for weeks waiting.

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

A UGV can sit idle for weeks waiting.

Or lay a bunch of smart mines.  So, as we saw a few pages back, the answer is to layer and heap defensive systems onto these existing platforms at accelerating costs...or remove the platform and disaggregate the capabilities across dispersed cheaper sub systems. I can see modern western militaries all going with option 1, as we will spend billions trying to keep these legacy platforms relevant, chasing a sunk cost fallacy.

The sucking and blowing will continue as well.  This war will get cherry picked to demonstrate "we need heavy" and all evidence (that we have been seeing for months) will be dismissed as "not yet validated and too vignette-y". Meanwhile any and all examples of heavy DF will be rolled out and loudly declared as "see, we told you they are not irrelevant!"

 

[cesmonkey]

Update from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi
https://t.me/osirskiy/719
 

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For several days in a row, he worked in military units that conduct defense at the hottest points of the Eastern Front.

The enemy continues to conduct active offensive actions of varying intensity practically along the entire front, concentrating the main efforts on the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Here, the enemy concentrated the largest number of his assault units from eight shock brigades.
Fierce battles in these directions have been going on for several months, and during this time our soldiers courageously restrained the enemy's advance.

Fighting continues in the Chasovoy Yar, Klishchiivka, and Kalynyvka districts. The enemy is trying to capture these settlements in order to expand the geography of its advance in the direction of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Unsuccessfully, the enemy stormed Bilogorivka, which became an eloquent example of the resilience of the Ukrainian army in the Luhansk region.

The enemy rushes to Siversk from two directions, but each time they roll back, leaving the corpses of their soldiers behind.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy is conducting unsuccessful actions, trying to advance deep into our battle formations and create a so-called "security belt".
In Vovchansk, the enemy is bogged down, despite the forces and resources involved, which are constantly replenished at the expense of units from other directions.

In the Zaporozhye direction, the aggressor carries out offensive actions in the Staromayorske and Robotyne districts, but in fact without success.
In the Krynka area, fighting continued for the maintenance of the bridgehead and control of the islands, without significant changes in the condition and position of the parties.

In these conditions, it is very important for us to maintain the occupied lines and positions, to prevent a defense breakthrough, and to destroy the enemy's manpower and equipment as much as possible.

We need to gain an advantage over the enemy, reduce losses, and most importantly, change the defensive and offensive psychology, which will be an important step on the way to our Victory!
To do this, we are focusing our efforts on improving the quality of classes with units that are undergoing combat coordination, during which issues of combating and protecting against enemy drones, moving on the battlefield, using EW devices, evacuating the wounded and many other relevant issues are worked out. in the conditions of modern combat.

Only technological superiority and training of the troops will ensure our success on the battlefield!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[cesmonkey]

Update from Konstantin Mashovets
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1944
 

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Review...

As far as I understand, in the zone of operation of his group of forces (GV) "Center", the enemy will soon be able to reach the Novopokrovskoye - Umanskoye line and take control of the village of Yasnobrodovka...

Which, in principle, will remove the situation for him , to a sufficient extent, a threat from the south for his “Ocheretinsk group” - the 137th, 30th separate motorized rifle brigades (OMSBR) and the 433rd motorized rifle regiment (MSR) of the 27th motorized rifle division. (MSD).

And this, in fact, will “free their hands” in continuing the offensive in the northwestern and western directions, that is, towards the village of Lozuvatskoye, the village of Sokol and the village of Novoselovka Pervaya.

The brigades of the enemy's 41st and 2nd combined arms armies (OVA) operating in this direction are the 74th, 55th OMSBR (41st ZVA), 15th OMSBR (2nd OVA) and 114th OMSBR 1 -th AK, reinforced by a number of regiments and battalions from the territorial troops and the mobilization reserve, will obviously in the near future try to break through along two main “directorates”:

- through Vozdvizhenka towards the Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka road, probably with the goal of cutting it off at the Malinovka section - New Poltavka

- and reach the Volchya River in the section between Progress and Kamyshevka and, if possible, capture a couple of bridgeheads on it.

And at the present time, with regard to the second directorate, I do not see much difficulty for the enemy in achieving these goals...

Obviously, Yasnobrodovka and Novoselovka The First Armed Forces of Ukraine will be lost in the near future, and then the enemy will “rush” to the Lozovatskoye - Progress line ...

The final “intermediate” chord will probably be the advance of advanced enemy units to the Vozdvizhenka area.

It should be noted that in the direction of applying its main efforts, the enemy continues to have a significant advantage in forces and means and, moreover, is actively massaging them in certain areas and directions, creating “in the moment” an almost “crushing” advantage.

The enemy’s ability to actively maneuver along the front with appropriate forces and means and constantly increase the composition of his advanced strike tactical groups clearly gives him a certain head start in this regard.

From the latest examples...

- a significant replenishment of the enemy's 15th Infantry Motorized Rifle Brigade, operating in this direction... the brigade received another "marching battalion" for this

- the introduction into battle of the enemy's "fresh" 137th Infantry Motorized Rifle Brigade (from the 41st Infantry Motorized Rifle Brigade ), it is already operating in several units in the Pokrovsky direction.

In general, the situation in the Pokrovsky direction is difficult and complex, and has every chance of further deterioration...

The enemy command, in the near future, will obviously make every effort to “broaden and deepen” there is even more of it.

In this regard, I would carefully monitor the situation in the tactical rear of the enemy’s 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade zone and the adjacent flank of the enemy’s Main Guards “Center” and Main Guards “South”. This is the direction to Alexandropol and Kalinovo, as well as the area of the village of Karlovka. After all, obviously, the enemy will in the near future try to take advantage of the results of his success in the Pokrovsky direction.

 

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2. As for the Kramatorsk direction , we can state that the enemy here is systematically and gradually trying to realize his plan regarding the immediate tasks formulated for himself. Namely:

- He managed, with the help of the forward units of the 98th Airborne Division (Airborne Division) and reinforcements, to break through into the city of Chasov Yar and take control of almost half of the Kanal microdistrict, where tough close-quarters battles are now continuing in urban areas . Most likely, he will be able to occupy it completely and go to the bridge crossing over the canal on the street. O. Koshevoy

- And he “came closely” to the “problem” of Kleshchievka - Andreevka, the advanced units of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd AK began active attacking and assault operations from the area of the village of Ivanovskoye along the canal - Donbass" in a southerly direction, clearly trying to "collapse" the entire defense system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the Klishchievka - Andreevka line, while simultaneously attacking through Klishchievka itself in a southwestern direction.

That is, the enemy command is trying to create for itself "convenient" preconditions for breaking through BEYOND the canal south of the Konstantinovka - Bakhmut road and the assault on the city of Chasov Yar from the south...

In this regard, the enemy’s attempts to actively act along the Ivanovskoye - Stupochki direction look most dangerous (of course, if he manages to push our troops BEYOND the channel from Kleshchievka before that, than he is, in fact, busy at the moment).

That is, the prospects of a frontal assault on the city of Vremya Yar “strictly from the east” by the forces of the 98th Motorized Rifle Division are clearly not very popular with the Russian command there...

Well, Somewhere, in this regard, it can be understood - the prospect of a breakthrough through the canal under fairly dense fire influence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from positions fortified on the western bank... well, such a “solution”.

Therefore, in my opinion, in the Kramatorsk direction in the near future we will see concentrated attempts by the enemy to achieve the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces BEHIND the canal south of the Konstantinovka - Bakhmut road...

Obviously, this kind of Klishchievsky bridgehead of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the context of the prospects for the assault on the city of Chasov Yar, is very Callous to the enemy

 

[cesmonkey]

https://unn.ua/en/news/in-odessa-there-was-a-clash-between-ambulance-workers-and-employees-of-the-military-enlistment-office-the-shopping-center-reacted

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A skirmish took place in Odesa between employees of the "ambulance" and the military commissariat. The TCC reacted

In Odessa, there was a clash between military personnel from the shopping center and ambulance workers after the military refused to release paramedics from the building of the recruitment center, where doctors arrived on the call.

In Odesa, there was a clash between employees of the local TCC and "ambulance" workers. The military did not want to release the paramedics who had arrived there on call from the building of the Military Commissariat. Local Telegram channels write about it, UNN reports.

Details 

On the network, locals say that the driver of the "ambulance" went to the TCC to update the data, in accordance with the law. When the man was refused to be released from the assembly center, he became ill, and medical teams were called to the TCC.

However, according to the local media, the doctors who wanted to hospitalize the man also refused to let him out of the premises of the TCC. A video of medics gathering for a protest near the building of the Kyiv RTCC and the Odesa JV also appeared online. The verbal altercation between the military and medics gradually turned into a fight.

Many videos show ambulance workers fighting with men in military uniform. You can also see how the man sprayed the doctor in the face with a can.

According to local mass media, TCC employees eventually released the medics and the ambulance driver after a protest organized by paramedics.

 

[cesmonkey]

Rybar claims:
https://t.me/rybar/60880
 

Quote

About strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against targets in the Poltava region

In the morning, footage of effective strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against air defense missile systems and aircraft stands, objective control of which was provided by reconnaissance UAVs, appeared on the Internet.

One could get used to a video with such content, but there is one nuance: this time the targets were in the Poltava region, a record 140 km from the front line for such cases.

First, Russian troops attacked the Mirgorod airfield, where they destroyed a Su-27UB combat training fighter . Nearby were MiG-29s, recently relocated from the Dnepropetrovsk airfield after recent successful flights.

Most likely, the other sides were not “covered” with shrapnel and did not receive any damage. However, at one of the parking lots one can see the collected remains of other previously shot down or destroyed Ukrainian Air Force aircraft, of which there are about five .

In another attack, Russian troops hit a battery of S-300 air defense systems in the village of Polyvyanoye , east of Mirgorod. As a result of two hits, two launchers were destroyed, with the detonation of ammunition, and also, at a minimum, the illumination and low-altitude detection stations along with the control point were disabled.

️Hitting targets deep behind enemy lines with parallel objective control from the air again speaks of the growth of the strike and reconnaissance capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. Successful actions in the Poltava region were also facilitated by the diligent work to destroy Ukrainian air defense systems in the front-line areas.

It is unnecessary to talk about the importance of destroying enemy air defenses from the point of view of the impact on its combat capabilities. The enemy is also fully aware of this, as can be seen from the example of regular salvoes of ATACMS ballistic missiles in the Crimea.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Update from Konstantin Mashovets
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1944
 

 

 

Also, the Russians have successes in Zaporozhe: Robotyne (Orichiv axis) and Staromayorskie (Velyka Novosylka axis), both fought for very hard in the Summer 2023 offensive are back in Russian hands, the latter apparently with significant losses for the Ukrainians. It seems like under the cover of the spectacularly inept attack in the Kharkiv direction the Russians have managed to make gains  in Donbas and Zaporozhe.