How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chris talpas]

Relevant in that this ‘podcast’ touches upon this conflict.  
I offer up this nearly 2.5 hour behemoth of an interview.  Dr. Paine is professor of strategy at the US Naval War College.  The interviewer gets in the way with his love of counter factuals but she is adept at returning golden nuggets and bringing reality to bear.  This conversation is wide ranging and highlights the differences between continental and maritime powers and the impact that has on strategy.

 

Edited June 9 by chris talpas
Typo

[Harmon Rabb]

Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time (skynews)

Quote

A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source has told Sky News.

The source said a "Russian command node" was hit on Sunday in the area of Belgorod, western Russia.

Belgorod is close to the border with northeastern Ukraine.

It was not immediately clear what type of munition was used in the attack, including whether or not it had been a Western weapon.

The United States and France recently said the Ukrainian armed forces were permitted to use their arms to strike military targets inside Russia - from where Russian forces are launching attacks against Ukraine.

Under new guidance approved by President Joe Biden, American munitions can be used on Russian soil to help defend the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

Lord Cameron, the UK foreign secretary, has been less specific, merely saying it was up to Ukraine to decide how they use British weapons - such as Storm Shadow cruise missiles that can be fired by Ukrainian jets.

'Direct hit'

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the military source told Sky News: "A Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) mission has struck a Russian command node in Belgorod.

"Whilst damage assessment is still occurring, it is confirmed as a direct hit. This is the first UAF air-delivered munition delivered against a target within Russia."

Ukraine has launched multiple drone strikes deep into Russian territory. But the use of a warplane to strike targets inside Russia could be seen by Moscow as a new escalation.

The Russian defence ministry said its forces had shot down a number of Ukrainian drones in the Belgorod region. It was not clear whether this was part of the same assault.

Ukraine also targeting Russian ships

The Ukrainian military source also said that on Saturday evening, Ukrainian forces conducted a "coordinated strike" against a Russian landing ship that had recently moved to the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea.

The vessel has become the fifth of seven Ropucha-class landing ships to be sunk or "rendered unserviceable" by Ukrainian attacks, the source said.

"This successful strike shows the Russians they cannot operate with freedom either in the Black Sea or eastward," the source added.

The Russian military uses such ships to ferry ammunition and supplies to the occupied city of Mariupol for onward transit to the frontline, according to the source.

"By thwarting Russian shipments of ammunition and key military supplies this strike will directly support Ukrainian troops in their ongoing fight," the source said.

Good news.

Quote

A Russian ship was likely attacked in the Sea of Azov. On June 8, around 4:00 p.m., several non-civilian vessels were spotted off the coast between Berdyansk and Primorsk. Around midnight, a Ukrainian naval drone would have attacked a Russian ship near Yeysk. Initially, it was thought to be a large amphibious assault ship, but later reports clarified it was another type (unclear which yet) of vessel.

Looking forward to more details.

[kimbosbread]

Completely off-topic, is there something like Combat Mission but for politics? I’m imagining something like Social Mission: Multnomah County. I was just thinking about how easy it is to test hypotheses about tactics and the efficacy of say modern ATGMs, and then was thinking if there was anything similar but for say adding roundabouts, or public urinals or public caning of vandals.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ground vehicles are going to need to start thinking about stealth:

https://www.iai.co.il/p/eli-2058-tactical-isr-aerial-system

 

I wonder if the Israelis are mad enough at Putin to ship this to Ukraine? Or will the Ukrainians have build their own copy? It is the acceleration of what we have been discussing forever. If that Bradley with the cancerous turret can't deal with a drone like this, and do it without giving away its position to one of five OTHER ISR systems it is just a target, and an expensive one at that

30 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Completely off-topic, is there something like Combat Mission but for politics? I’m imagining something like Social Mission: Multnomah County. I was just thinking about how easy it is to test hypotheses about tactics and the efficacy of say modern ATGMs, and then was thinking if there was anything similar but for say adding roundabouts, or public urinals or public caning of vandals.

The closest thing I am aware of is some of the simulations the various bits of the government use to simulate things like evacuating a city. But that is still a short term, known goal simulation. Apparently cell phone location data is improving this kind of model immensely. The problem for anything more general than that is simulating people is HARD over the long term.  Even simulating purely economic behaviors is hard, which brings us to that old joke about economist have predicted twice as many recessions as we have actually had. Including one we didn't have in the last eighteen months. Maybe models made up of autonomous AI agents will eventually make it better. My bet though is that will take a computer the size of a football stadium with its own nuclear power plant, and river diverted right through the middle of it to keep it cool. Of course if it worked it would probably be worth it.

Edited June 9 by dan/california

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Completely off-topic, is there something like Combat Mission but for politics? I’m imagining something like Social Mission: Multnomah County. I was just thinking about how easy it is to test hypotheses about tactics and the efficacy of say modern ATGMs, and then was thinking if there was anything similar but for say adding roundabouts, or public urinals or public caning of vandals.

There are some for different time periods but the ones I know are more on a grand strategy level than tactical. Compared to wargames where at least parts of the simulation aspect are physics (and thus calculable) a real small scale simulation seems difficult. You'd have to model lots of psychology and social interactions. And frankly, psychology is one of the weaker parts of CM (not that I know of other games that do it better).

[billbindc]

Significant: 

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4710848-white-house-russia-advance-ukraine-kharkiv-region-stalled/

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Significant: 

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4710848-white-house-russia-advance-ukraine-kharkiv-region-stalled/

Aw, remember when the Kharkiv thing was “the beginning of the end?” The RA was going to drive up from the south and “link up”?  Big red arrows all over the place?  Imminent Ukrainian collapse?

In the end more Russian leg humping; horrendous loses for next to zero gains.

 

[Sojourner]

"...a Bradley vehicle arrived and successfully evacuated him."

The new Jolly Green Giant?

 

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196060/sikorsky-hh-3e-jolly-green-giant/

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ground vehicles are going to need to start thinking about stealth:

This is just me trying to process these many pages of excellent theorizing and intense debate,  thinking out loud about trying to make sense of it all. To see a bigger, emerging picture. Feels like time and space are changing. I apologize if I am simply restating the obvious! At my age, information takes longer to travel between neurons than it did in my youth. 

Several members have pointed out how naval tactics and history can be applicable to the current land war in Europe. And beyond. Most recently was an intriguing idea that land platforms should mirror the evolution of naval vessels, from platforms for guns to platforms for missiles and advanced sensors. This made me in turn think about time and space. As the lethality of weapons and the range of sensors grew, so did the ranges of engagements. In WWII, engagements gravitated towards BVR as the norm. In the ocean of the atmosphere, we see a similar evolution Dogfighting is nearly a thing of the past while the range of missiles and sensors a key factor in distance dominance. “Loyal wingman” drones may eventually push the larger, human-piloted jets farther into the distance as they begin to assume a similar role to that of AWACS; stretching space just as modern navies dramatically stretched their engagement areas. 

Combat on the planet’s land surfaces has lagged behind this evolution at least partially due to the vast variety of terrains and the masking of visibility by hills and valleys, day and night. Compared to this the oceans and atmosphere space are deserts. And the exception to this has been of course, desert warfare, notably in WWII North Africa. But is the advent of massive integrated ISR combined with precision munitions remorselessly leveling the terrain features of land surfaces? Will land combat theory and doctrine begin to converge with that of naval? Naval platforms tend to be far fewer but significantly larger and more powerful than land platforms. Air power seems more of a middle ground with larger numbers of platforms than navies, but smaller than mechanized land  forces. While airpower can cover much of the planet, naval power combines airpower as subsidiary platforms. Naval assets employing conventional cruise missiles further blur the lines between the air and sea forces. 

Re-perceiving the distance scale and spacing of land combat and the scale and numbers of platforms and their munitions is already happening in Ukraine. The thinning out of numbers on the offense, the magnification of visibility via all-seeing eyes both electronic and visual, in all realms: from space-based, to drones close to the surface. Fewer and fewer places to hide. Logistics, bases, concentrations all pushed farther and farther from the front. Air forces’ platforms also forced away from the front lines - like naval ships have been from one another. All this has been discussed at great length and sophistication that I try to keep up with. Most days.  The land is being effectively stretched and flattened. Is land combat space being simplified, as if the surface of the ocean, the transparency of the air? As a result, shrinking the size of mechanized land assets seems a given. 

The tricky thing is that naval warfare doctrine is also forced to evolve in response to the onslaught of compact drone assets in large numbers. C5ISR AI, automation, and cheap drone tech is transforming the nature of survivable naval platforms. How will the aircraft carriers survive, the  massive floating metal islands of the major navies? While the space of land combat is stretching out, is the scale of survivable naval assets inevitably shrinking?  Are we seeing a dramatic leveling of land, sea, and air theory and doctrine? Are the differences of these three realms becoming simplified? Local variations will always be present, but the vast historic differences in air, land and sea platforms could be declining if a seamless integrated viewpoint and armory of abilities envelopes Earth. With the accelerating militarization of near-earth orbit space, the struggle for total domination of all realms, in real time doesn’t seem like an unachievable pipe dream, at least for the current and emerging superpowers. But how does asymmetric warfare fit into this picture? 

Lots of questions, lots of speculations. Makes me curious whether historically there are recurring patterns in the relationships of space and platforms among the three basic domains. Or if there is a trend toward the convergence of scale and platforms and the five “C”s. Tension? More capabilities are being pushed down to individual units, while more finely tuned command and control ability is gained at higher and higher levels of command. While autonomous armed drone units of all sorts, adding a potentially unpredictable third player (Red, Blue, and ?).

Having further exposed my ignorance, I retreat to playing the superb new CMBN Battlepack 2. And honor D-Day once again. 

[Butschi]

First results for the election to the EU parliament. With a strengthening of right wing parties (many of which are... less than opposed to Russia), things may get "interesting" in the near future.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-parliament-poised-rightward-shift-after-final-voting-2024-06-09/

In France, Le Pen's party clearly won the election. As a result Macron has dissolved the parliament.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-emmanuel-macron-dissolve-parliament-france/

Edit: Note that EU institutions are the second largest donor for Ukraine, so the outcome of this election may be a similarly big deal for our discussion here as the next Presidential election in the US.

Edited June 9 by Butschi

[Yet]

32 minutes ago, Butschi said:

First results for the election to the EU parliament. With a strengthening of right wing parties (many of which are... less than opposed to Russia), things may get "interesting" in the near future.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-parliament-poised-rightward-shift-after-final-voting-2024-06-09/

In France, Le Pen's party clearly won the election. As a result Macron has dissolved the parliament.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-emmanuel-macron-dissolve-parliament-france/

Edit: Note that EU institutions are the second largest donor for Ukraine, so the outcome of this election may be a big deal for Ukraine.

... is what the media makes believe. A closer look shows that there are only minor shifts. max shift is (so far)say 20 seats in a 720 seat parliament. Also the biggest challenges are in the right parties that were or are without a European 'party family'. Shortly started... without an European 'party family' you dont really have any power in parliament. 

it will not play out as a radically different EU course, thought of course some countries can feel the need for a different sound. 

About France, right! it can make a shift. but presidential elections are not till 2027

Edited June 9 by Yet

[TheVulture]

43 minutes ago, Yet said:

... is what the media makes believe. A closer look shows that there are only minor shifts. max shift  is say 20 seats in a 720 seat parliament. Also the biggest challenges are in the right parties that were or are without a European 'party family'. Shortly started... without an European 'party family' you dont really have any power in parliament. 

it will not play out as a radically different EU course, thought of course some countries can feel the need for a different sound. 

About France, right! it can make a shift. but presidential elections are not till 2027

Hopefully some members from France can enlighten us,  but I was under the impression that the president in France was largely a ceremonial role without much political power. It's the prime minister who is the 'leader' in all real senses, even if the president is technically the head of state.

I'm not entirely clear why Macron called a snap election in response to doing badly in the polls and European Parliament elections. Is he anticipating that it's only going to get worse the longer he waits, or is he hoping the shock is going to motivate his support base to vote in larger numbers to try and stave off the right wing threat? Seems like an awfully big gamble either way.

Edited June 9 by TheVulture

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Completely off-topic, is there something like Combat Mission but for politics? I’m imagining something like Social Mission: Multnomah County. I was just thinking about how easy it is to test hypotheses about tactics and the efficacy of say modern ATGMs, and then was thinking if there was anything similar but for say adding roundabouts, or public urinals or public caning of vandals.

Isn't that "The Sims"?

[chrisl]

8 hours ago, Probus said:

Yeah.  I have a feeling turrets are going to look a lot different in the future. 

I wonder if there will be a return to well armored Stug III type vehicles with really good multi purpose armor on all sides and an assault gun in the front. Giving APS systems a clear view 360 degrees.

How low of an angle will the APS systems fire at?  They also need to not fire when there are troops hanging around outside.

If I'm making drones to attack vehicles that have APS, I might be loitering up high and then when there are troops or soft vehicles nearby, coming in really low from the "friendly" side to aim for the tracks/wheels to immobilize.

[chrisl]

Perun does space again this week, mostly talking about evolution and comparison of launch capability.  

He doesn't spend as much time on relative capabilities of payloads as I'd like to see, but understanding launch capability and the direction it's headed is important to understanding why countries (and companies) fly what they fly for payloads.

[Butschi]

48 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Hopefully some members from France can enlighten us,  but I was under the impression that the president in France was largely a ceremonial role without much political power. It's the prime minister who is the 'leader' in all real senses, even if the president is technically the head of state.

I'm no expert on the French system but as far as I understand it, the French president has the same or more executive power than the US president.

[Probus]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

How low of an angle will the APS systems fire at?  They also need to not fire when there are troops hanging around outside.

If I'm making drones to attack vehicles that have APS, I might be loitering up high and then when there are troops or soft vehicles nearby, coming in really low from the "friendly" side to aim for the tracks/wheels to immobilize.

Yeah, drones definitely have the upper hand right now, but technology will swing back and forth for a while.  No matter what, I think AFVs are going to have to be rethought.  No more WWII armor schemes.  You've REALLY gotta think in 3D for armor protection now.

Let's name off some scenarios armor defense has to deal with to still be considered "Armored":

• High angle of attack
• Low angle of attack (180 degrees of pitch from horizon to horizon from projectiles and drones)
• 360 degrees of 'yaw' to defend
• 180 degrees below from mines
• Fast moving penetrators
• Slow moving shaped charges
• Very slow moving shaped charges, grenades
• Distinguish non-threats (friendly soldiers, birds, etc...)
• Distinguish 'observation' threats

Geeze, the list goes on and on.  Battlefield defense is just an open book right now.  It could be that powerful ECM will be just as important as armor thickness.  The ECM has to be directional or you'll have HARM type munitions homing in on you.  Technology could really rule the day.  Or not.  

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Butschi said:

I'm no expert on the French system but as far as I understand it, the French president has the same or more executive power than the US president.

Yeah, I think he might be getting things confused with Germany or some other country.  Macron is still very much in the driver's seat, even if he now has to manage more disruption in the back seat.

Steve

[Holien]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I think he might be getting things confused with Germany or some other country.  Macron is still very much in the driver's seat, even if he now has to manage more disruption in the back seat.

Steve

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-69102843

Perhaps a bit more disruption than he could handle? 

Quote

The fact is that he is stuck.

Without a majority, getting any bill through the National Assembly is already a struggle. With most of the country now so clearly against him, any new legislation – for example the upcoming budget – could have proved explosive.

So he has plumped for "clarity". If National Rally has the votes then, he says, they should be given the chance to govern.

Add this for more explanation. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/frances-snap-election-what-happened-why-and-whats-next

Quote

"Sunday’s dramatic move, however, is a huge gamble: Macron’s party could suffer yet more losses, effectively hobbling the rest of his presidential term and potentially handing Marine Le Pen even more power. The president has presented it as an existential choice for French voters: do you really want to be governed by the far right?

It seems unlikely that he is counting on securing a majority: the front républicain, or republican front, that blocked RN’s advance in the past has weakened almost to the point of disappearance, and Macron’s popularity is in steady decline.

Most analysts, however, predict that while the far-right party may emerge with more MPs, it will probably not win enough seats to give it a majority either – meaning the next parliament may be even messier and more ineffective than the current one.

It could be that he is looking at a neutralising “cohabitation effect”. If RN were to score well and, for example, Bardella were offered the job of prime minister, two and a half years in government may be just enough time to render the far right unpopular too."

 

Edited June 10 by Holien
Added extra article

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Hopefully some members from France can enlighten us,  but I was under the impression that the president in France was largely a ceremonial role without much political power. It's the prime minister who is the 'leader' in all real senses, even if the president is technically the head of state.

Absolutely the other way round. The President nominates the ministers and is responsible for the executive branch of the governement. The prime minister is more of a nominal title, primarily he is one of the ministers appointed by the President , his prime minister status conferring on him only a modest amount of additional powers, without limiting the President's supremacy in any way. A simple experiment confirms that - we all know the name of the French President at the time, not always the name of the contemporary PM.

Saw an interesting analysis today, it basically says that if Macron continued the status quo until the end of his term he risks the situation where he runs the executive branch, but in order to change any laws whatsoever he has to negotiate for support of the opposition. OTOH calling the elections early gives Macron 2 options, one that French MPs from parties which did badly in the European elections are  afraid to lose their seats (France's electoral system is first past the post in two rounds) and switch allegiance to Macron, which may reconstitute Macron's presidential party prior to the elections. The other, that Macron  will appoint a Le Penist governement. In that case Macron would count on such governement to wear itself down governing so that come next presidential elections, the Le Penist candidate will not be a new white knight coming to clean up the mess left by the predecessors, but a person co-responsible for the state of affairs in France. This would benefit Macron's political heir, as he himself cannot run for the 3rd term in office.

[TheVulture]

32 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Absolutely the other way round. The President nominates the ministers and is responsible for the executive branch of the governement. The prime minister is more of a nominal title, primarily he is one of the ministers appointed by the President , his prime minister status conferring on him only a modest amount of additional powers, without limiting the President's supremacy in any way. A simple experiment confirms that - we all know the name of the French President at the time, not always the name of the contemporary PM.

Saw an interesting analysis today, it basically says that if Macron continued the status quo until the end of his term he risks the situation where he runs the executive branch, but in order to change any laws whatsoever he has to negotiate for support of the opposition. OTOH calling the elections early gives Macron 2 options, one that French MPs from parties which did badly in the European elections are  afraid to lose their seats (France's electoral system is first past the post in two rounds) and switch allegiance to Macron, which may reconstitute Macron's presidential party prior to the elections. The other, that Macron  will appoint a Le Penist governement. In that case Macron would count on such governement to wear itself down governing so that come next presidential elections, the Le Penist candidate will not be a new white knight coming to clean up the mess left by the predecessors, but a person co-responsible for the state of affairs in France. This would benefit Macron's political heir, as he himself cannot run for the 3rd term in office.

Thanks for the explanation. I knew one of the two top elected offices didn't have much power, but had it completely wrong :). Fortunately no-one is relying on me for an understanding of French politics.

[zinz]

Quote

An interesting yet unpleasant read - an analysis of the disruption of the #Ukraine defensive lines at #Ocheretyne in April 2024, material long heralded by “DeepState” OSINT group. The group clearly explained that these details are well-known in the military circles and their publication serves preventing such problems in the future where they are caused by political interventions (read at the end).

The article gives many details of command and logistics that I can’t even repeat correctly due to military speak so I encourage you to read the original, even with automatic translation.

 

In a nutshell, the defence of Ocheretyne was based on, going from the west, brigades 47, 115 and 23. The key passage was defended by three battalions of the 115th brigade, which worked poorly together and consisted of troops, including the TrO (territorial defence) , which had been added at various stages.

It was this kind of TrO unit, on contact with 23 brigade, that ran away in first after relatively poor battle reconnaissance by the Russians. The problem, however, was that the second line of defence of the 115th also consisted of rear troops and unprepared for battle, and the fortifications at Ocheretyne were virtually non-existent.

 

The consequence was that when the 2nd battalion of the 115th brigade in the first line heroically tried to salvage the situation by suffering heavy losses, the Russians were already coming out to its rear, which was covered by troops not ready for it (see map). The consequence was the breaking of the defence line, heavy losses in the 115th and a change of command of the entire brigade.

 

The whole story with details here: https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19660 (first part)

 

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19661 (second part)

 

Adding spice to the whole story is the fact that the TrO (territorial defence) unit in charge of the critical episode was Oleg Liashko, a former politician and council member who, within two years of joining the army, had reached the rank of colonel (!) despite, to put it mildly, doubts about his competence expressed by many in the military. Below is material on Liashko from April this year. If what TSN and DeepState write is true, we have a pretty good case study of how political appointments in the military can literally lay down entire battles

 

https://tsn.ua/exclusive/odiozniy-lyashko-zagrimiv-u-skandal-viyskovi-zlili-pravdu-pro-eksnardepa-v-armiyi-2560828.html (in Ukrainian)

 

 

Map of the Ocheretyne contact line prior to Russian breakthrough

https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112591577205812010

[zinz]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/ukraine-recovery-conference-urged-to-focus-on-preventing-energy-blackouts

I am quite worried that not enough is being done to get power and heating ready and protected for the next winter. Next to manpower and ammunitions its a big problem for Ukraine to solve right now. No modern society can function without electricity. And not having enough power leads to knock on effects like missing taxes and reduced production of military goods. Also many systems like heating systems need electricity to work and protect houses from freezing and further damages. 

I am not sure that there is enough focus on that problem right now from Ukraines western partners. Or they will wait until winter and do a surprised Pikachu face..