How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

Fear Of Drones, in the USA

https://www.twz.com/land/enclosures-to-defend-f-15es-from-drone-attacks-eyed-at-seymour-johnson-afb

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

There were comments a few(?) weeks ago that Russians had abandoned positions on the left bank. Is this what you are referring to? Or are you saying the Ukrainians have abandoned the positions? As well, the Magyar unit has left the Kherson region for Kharkiv oblast. Maybe the pickings were too slim in Kherson now and they have gone to fuller hunting grounds.

Madyar and probably the bulk of the other units.

There was footage of russians carelessly walking through the center, which was a highly contested kill zone for anyone to be in a week ago, let alone waltz along the road. Without Madyar units support there is no point in sending Marines over.

 

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Madyar and probably the bulk of the other units.

There was footage of russians carelessly walking through the center, which was a highly contested kill zone for anyone to be in a week ago, let alone waltz along the road. Without Madyar units support there is no point in sending Marines over.

 

I think it is the other way around.  Without the marines there there's no reason for Magyar to be in Kherson.

Haiduk posted this last week:

So it seems the abandonment of Krynky is confirmed, but we're still in the dark about what's happening there generally.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is madness.  The US government is going to spend $3b and take SEVEN YEARS to just figure out what it wants this thing to be.

If you want to feel worse about procurement, just read about the mess the Constellation class has become. It makes Douglas McGregor seem sane.

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

If you want to feel worse about procurement, just read about the mess the Constellation class has become. It makes Douglas McGregor seem sane.

There is a reason I don't pay any attention to what the Navy does other than being thankful for the local jobs it creates.  But I would rather they keep people employed making something that is worth putting to sea.  One would think this isn't too much to ask for.

Steve

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is a reason I don't pay any attention to what the Navy does other than being thankful for the local jobs it creates.  But I would rather they keep people employed making something that is worth putting to sea.  One would think this isn't too much to ask for.

Steve

Perun beats that horse to death, feeds it to a grinder, and then puts whats left in a coke furnace. And those are his nice comments.

[Viko]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Madyar and probably the bulk of the other units.

There was footage of russians carelessly walking through the center, which was a highly contested kill zone for anyone to be in a week ago, let alone waltz along the road. Without Madyar units support there is no point in sending Marines over.

 

Another Ukrainian adventure ended in complete failure with huge casualties.

[Sojourner]

9 minutes ago, Viko said:

Another Ukrainian adventure ended in complete failure with huge casualties.

Can you please share references that back up that assertion?

[ArmouredTopHat]

19 minutes ago, Viko said:

Another Ukrainian adventure ended in complete failure with huge casualties.

According to visual data, the Russians lost a truly crazy amount of equipment in that area despite the relatively small scale of the battle over the months for minor gain in return. Russian telegrams were -furious- about the constant claims that the area had been retaken when they were in fact dying like flies trying retake it. 
 

The fact it took this long for the Russians to finally retake a narrow, minor beachhead is more indicative of serious issues with Russian forces in the region, because they were certainly not profiting from attrition. 

Edited June 1 by ArmouredTopHat

[ArmouredTopHat]

Good example sourced from the original ISW report on the subject. Its one of many. 

 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Viko said:

Another Ukrainian adventure ended in complete failure with huge casualties.

Krynki was one of the most effective places in burning russian vehicles.

[cesmonkey]

Russia's strategic campaign of destroying Ukraine's power grid seems to be increasingly effective, unfortunately.

https://t.me/energyofukraine/2332
 

Quote

Today, from 6:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m., restrictions on household and industrial consumers are expected to be applied in all regions

 

Edited June 1 by cesmonkey

[poesel]

Successful drone on drone attack:

Ukrainian FPV drone targeting Russian Orlan reconnaissance UAV. Several weeks ago. As said: "... the appearance of a full-fledged anti-drone complex based on FPV is only a matter of time. Although it is not easy, it will definitely happen."

[Kraft]

Biden admin got cold feet

Quote

White House confirms that Ukraine cannot hit Russia with ATACMS missiles

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7458627/

 

[cesmonkey]

12 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Biden admin got cold feet

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7458627/

 

From what I read, there are several conditions on what America will allow in use of their weapons in the defense of Kharkiv. I don't think this was a "take back" but part of the initial set of restrictions.

[Viko]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Krynki was one of the most effective places in burning russian vehicles.

And also highly motivated Ukrainian marines. Please note, Putin is exchanging the lives of mobs with zero efficiency for the lives of trained and highly effective Ukrainian marines. Armored vehicles in today's realities play a secondary role; trained infantry have taken the first role. The Ukrainians thought that Krynki would divert significant Russian forces from operations in the east. The Kharkov offensive showed that this was a mistake. The recent promotion of General Sodol, the former commander of the Marine Corps, has caused discontent among the Ukrainian military. it is this guy that the Ukrainian marines blame for the senseless losses of marines in Krynki

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Viko said:

And also highly motivated Ukrainian marines. Please note, Putin is exchanging the lives of mobs with zero efficiency for the lives of trained and highly effective Ukrainian marines. Armored vehicles in today's realities play a secondary role; trained infantry have taken the first role. The Ukrainians thought that Krynki would divert significant Russian forces from operations in the east. The Kharkov offensive showed that this was a mistake. The recent promotion of General Sodol, the former commander of the Marine Corps, has caused discontent among the Ukrainian military. it is this guy that the Ukrainian marines blame for the senseless losses of marines in Krynki

It is hard to say what the actual cost and benefit would turn out to be. 

But as far as I have read and seen, Ukraine took a rather insignificant place on the other side of rhe Dniepr and it drove the Russians insane, because they are not waging a rational but a political war.

So it was never the intention of Ukraine to expand the bridgehead (unless an opportunity presented itself) while Russia threw vehicles, Storm-Z, artillery and a hail of bombs at this tiny town. 

There were many reports from the Russian side that the conditions on their side are hell as they were sent again and again against this bridgehead, which simply looked like it must be easy to crack. And Ukraine used the high-ground on the other side of the river and drones to make them pay and degrade the Russian forces.

That required a token force to sit in Krynky and sit tight while they get bombarded like no other force since WW2 in Europe. 

But all of that effort by the Russians, regardless of whether they threw prisoners forward or something else, is effort that was not available to them somewhere. And it was also said by the Russians that the Ukrainians could pull back any time because they cannot control the river islands behind Krynky. 

Russia would always use slave troops and penal units. Better to attrit them in an area where the terrain provides an advantage instead of letting the enemy choose.

So it seems, in my opinion, like this was a successful thorn in the side of Russia while it was going on.

And no, the Ukrainian Marines on the occupied side of the river will not have loved that assignement at all. But we heard the same complaints about 'Syrski the Butcher' after Bakhmut, who is now overall commander.

Is it possible that this was a fiasco? It is possible. But from many things Hajduk and others posted here about the Krynky engagement, it might have also not be. And individual troopers don't necessarily have the full picture, but they will always have a lot of gripes. 

Edited June 1 by Carolus

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Viko said:

And also highly motivated Ukrainian marines. Please note, Putin is exchanging the lives of mobs with zero efficiency for the lives of trained and highly effective Ukrainian marines. Armored vehicles in today's realities play a secondary role; trained infantry have taken the first role. The Ukrainians thought that Krynki would divert significant Russian forces from operations in the east. The Kharkov offensive showed that this was a mistake. The recent promotion of General Sodol, the former commander of the Marine Corps, has caused discontent among the Ukrainian military. it is this guy that the Ukrainian marines blame for the senseless losses of marines in Krynki

This is incorrect for the majority of the fighting and advancing taking place. With the exception of kreminna etc, where infantry highly matters, for the most part it is the most helpless.

Over +2km open no mans land, infantry that wants to assault a dug in position can be spotted forming from +10km away and DPICM & drones will feast before the defenses are reached. It takes a few 300 and the assault breaks down. Nobody will charge kilometers on foot over rough ground while having drones dive on them at the very least, 155mm if they're unlucky. The russian special forces die to FPV and artillery just as storm-Z does, the quality doesnt matter. 

Now, wagner adapted to this kssue, 5~7 man infiltration teams worked well as they can approach more stealthily, and cant be shelled when there are shortages.

But this is an incredibly slow process that will not force a collapse before EU/Nato help spools up through 2025, all the while burning through people just the same if ammunition is no pressing concern. It also only works in the right terrain, not open fields with a tree line every 1-2 km.

So how does russia advance? They pile up meat on a vehicle, drive it through the minefields, arty and drones and sometimes the units come through and it ends up being a coin toss who remains in the trench, if the defenders dont evacuate beforehand, which more often happens, with the idea of droning the survivors in the trench (lacking any and all serious EW) and returning to the position.

This leads to massive losses but it works in pushing the line.

Krynki had massive vehicle assaults for months as seen in the loss sheets of people tracking losses, that were picked apart by the elevated positions on the other side, as well as good hidden drone teams in the village cellars that can sustain nearby 500kg bombs.

These vehicles are now not a threat to the unfortified east Avdiivka area anymore, where, if you recall, the russians after running low on tanks ended up driving their meat on btr82s and btr80s into Bradley ambushes, who only sustained losses from lancets, not russian armor. 

Long story short without a widespread infantry portable adoption of EW *+* a 2nd coming of massive shell shortage that would target these EW, russia without vehicles will be stuck in ww1 with unwinnable, massively stacked for the defender conditions, that over the long or short term will end up in a 2nd Afghanistan.

Do note the same applies to the ZSU, as the southern offensive deeply showed with similar wrecked coloumns and minefield carnage that dwindled the handful of Bradleys and leopards so it was reverted back to single squads clearing trenches and grinding forward, at a similar pace (minus the 300 drone FPV clips on russian infantry stuck on a field we see now almost every day)

Edited June 1 by Kraft

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

Russia enforces enlisting of merceneries from third world countries. There are more and more African and Asian (Sri Lanka especially in last time) merceneries in Russian units.  Russians in joke call them "blackorusians" or "hindurusians" depending on their origins %) 

Also reportedly they hired about 1000 african women for drone assembling on large drone factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan Republic.

Just a platoon of 15th motor-rifle brigade

Edited June 1 by Haiduk

[Viko]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

This is incorrect for the majority of the fighting and advancing taking place. With the exception of kreminna etc, where infantry highly matters, for the most part it is the most helpless.

Over +2km open no mans land, infantry that wants to assault a dug in position can be spotted forming from +10km away and DPICM & drones will feast before the defenses are reached. It takes a few 300 and the assault breaks down. Nobody will charge kilometers on foot over rough ground while having drones dive on them at the very least, 155mm if they're unlucky. The russian special forces die to FPV and artillery just as storm-Z does, the quality doesnt matter. 

Now, wagner adapted to this kssue, 5~7 man infiltration teams worked well as they can approach more stealthily, and cant be shelled when there are shortages.

But this is an incredibly slow process that will not force a collapse before EU/Nato help spools up through 2025, all the while burning through people just the same if ammunition is no pressing concern. It also only works in the right terrain, not open fields with a tree line every 1-2 km.

So how does russia advance? They pile up meat on a vehicle, drive it through the minefields, arty and drones and sometimes the units come through and it ends up being a coin toss who remains in the trench, if the defenders dont evacuate beforehand, which more often happens, with the idea of droning the survivors in the trench (lacking any and all serious EW) and returning to the position.

This leads to massive losses but it works in pushing the line.

Krynki had massive vehicle assaults for months as seen in the loss sheets of people tracking losses, that were picked apart by the elevated positions on the other side, as well as good hidden drone teams in the village cellars that can sustain nearby 500kg bombs.

These vehicles are now not a threat to the unfortified east Avdiivka area anymore, where, if you recall, the russians after running low on tanks ended up driving their meat on btr82s and btr80s into Bradley ambushes, who only sustained losses from lancets, not russian armor. 

Long story short without a widespread infantry portable adoption of EW *+* a 2nd coming of massive shell shortage that would target these EW, russia without vehicles will be stuck in ww1 with unwinnable, massively stacked for the defender conditions, that over the long or short term will end up in a 2nd Afghanistan.

Do note the same applies to the ZSU, as the southern offensive deeply showed with similar wrecked coloumns and minefield carnage that dwindled the handful of Bradleys and leopards so it was reverted back to single squads clearing trenches and grinding forward, at a similar pace (minus the 300 drone FPV clips on russian infantry stuck on a field we see now almost every day)

The recent Russian offensive near Kharkov was carried out with virtually no armor and was very successful. Special forces units played a decisive role.

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Would love to know what is killing them.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russia enforces enlisting of merceneries from third world countries. There are more and more African and Asian (Sri Lanka especially in last time) merceneries in Russian units.  Russians in joke call them "blackorusians" or "hindurusians" depending on their origins %) 

Also reportedly they hired about 1000 african women for drone assembling on large drone factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan Republic.

Just a platoon of 15th motor-rifle brigade

This is really turning in a World Proxy War I (it is early - we must have been here before).

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Viko said:

Another Ukrainian adventure ended in complete failure with huge casualties.

Man, 35th marines brigade still on left bank. Except Magyar we have units who can conduct drone recin and attacks. Our forces abandoned completely destroyed part of Krynky, which they were holding recently and moved toward Kozachi Laheri and established new positions there. I notice that Krynky has about 10 km in length. Also General Staff in own report for 28th of May made a hint we have new bridgeheads on left bank or on islands close to left bank. It was said "in area of Olhivka and Novotiahynka". But these are Ukraine-controlled villages on right bank, so new allegedle bridgeheads can be establishged in area of oppose villages through the Dnipro - Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka.  

About avanture and casualties. There are many opinions about sense of this operation. Many plaints about this operation had to be better supportes with artillery, SAM and EW protection. Many claims to former Marine Corps commander general Sodol (in 2014 he was 25th airborne brigade comamnder), who is blamed in "Zhukov methods" and complete indifference to lives of personnel. But even despite this bridgehead allowed to tie enough of Russian forces (at least new division, two naval infantry brigades/regiments and batch of territorial troop units), which could be moved to Zaporizhzia direction. Also as you could see, above, Russian losses are mauch more then Ukrainian. 

Real sense of this operation we will understand only after the war 

Edited June 1 by Haiduk

[TheVulture]

15 minutes ago, Viko said:

The recent Russian offensive near Kharkov was carried out with virtually no armor and was very successful. Special forces units played a decisive role.

You obviously have a very different idea of "very successful " than I do.  By that token,  the Ukraine summer 2023 offensive was even more successful.

And not to sound too cynical, you sound a lot like Zeleban/Zekezilka, and your first post was 6 days ago. Not a sock puppet by any chance?